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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    Blut2 wrote: »
    ...Statistically its completely true. The vast, vast majority of tenancies in Ireland do not end in problematic, drawn out evictions.

    What statistics show that tenants who are treated well don't cause long protected evictions?

    All the stats show is there aren't many evictions relative to the number of rentals. Unless there's some other way of interpreting this?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    My brother just got a new place not far from where he is at the moment. Its much bigger, brighter and modern. The rent is €100 pm cheaoer than he is paying at the moment. He moves in next month and just gave his current landlord notice. Current landlord was happy to accept as he says he was thinking of selling anyway.

    My own prediction is that the rent and higher supply will be short term. Lots of landlordswho have tenants who left the country or went home have been added to the market, but it wont be long before all of these are sucked up. There really arent THAT many when you talk about real numbers as opposed to percentages.

    And once this COVID thing is over that supply will be gone. People will be moving to the cheaper ones as fast as they can while they are there, but there is a finite supply.

    And I dont see any new landlords coming into the market in Ireland for a hell of a long time unless they are REITS. And REITS are expensive.

    So if you are planning on moving, I suggest do it now while there is some overhang to be had at cheaper rents.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    Blut2 wrote: »
    ....
    Letting a property sit idle for the best part of a year, receiving absolutely no income from it, because you're afraid of getting one of the possibly 1% of problem tenants seems insane to me from financial risk/reward point of view. But its your lack of income.
    ...

    I assume if they think they'll make more money when the market returns than being locked into a substantially lower rent if they lock into that now. I assume a lot moved to Airbnb in the first place, to make more money but also not to be locked into these rules.

    If they want to An Airbnb can sell up immediately. A LL with a part 4 tenant might take up to a year at best to get the property back to sell. Obvious which one is the better option, if you wanted to sell.

    They are also not locked into any previous rent cap. So if another landlord buys the airbnb they set a new rent. Buying a property with existing rent cap especially if it's way below market value. You can't rise it.

    The Airbnb will have made vastly more money than a regular rental. They are far more likely to have funds to weather this crisis than a regular rental.

    ...Maybe...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    beauf wrote: »
    I assume if they think they'll make more money when the market returns than being locked into a substantially lower rent if they lock into that now. I assume a lot moved to Airbnb in the first place, to make more money but also not to be locked into these rules.

    If they want to An Airbnb can sell up immediately. A LL with a part 4 tenant might take up to a year at best to get the property back to sell. Obvious which one is the better option, if you wanted to sell.

    They are also not locked into any previous rent cap. So if another landlord buys the airbnb they set a new rent. Buying a property with existing rent cap especially if it's way below market value. You can't rise it.

    The Airbnb will have made vastly more money than a regular rental. They are far more likely to have funds to weather this crisis than a regular rental.

    ...Maybe...


    I agree with everything you have said. The biggest issue being trying to sell a property with a rent cap on it. If I was buying to invest, and I wouldnt even dream of doing that, I wouldnt be buying any property with a rent cap on it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,038 ✭✭✭ MarkY91


    Graham wrote: »
    Talk of AirBnB is all a bit academic in the current environment.

    I suspect that will remain the case for at least the remainder of 2020.

    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.

    Karma.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 930 ✭✭✭ DubCount


    beauf wrote: »
    What statistics show that tenants who are treated well don't cause long protected evictions?

    All the stats show is there aren't many evictions relative to the number of rentals. Unless there's some other way of interpreting this?

    Not surprisingly, the RTB are not keen to highlight this, but you can extrapolate from their data. At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    The range of timescales that the open cases will require will obviously vary from the ones that will accept an RTB judgement, to the ones that will go through appeals and court and require the bailiffs to call around.

    Of course, these stats exclude all the landlords who pay off rogue tenants to leave quietly, and the ones that just leave and wreck the place for which no RTB case is launched.

    All this shows that the majority of tenants are good upstanding citizens that pay their way and play by the rules. However, there are sufficient rogues out there to make it a worrying risk. When the cost impact of coming across a rogue that will take 18 months to evict and wreck your house/apartment, the costs of lost rent, legal fees and repairs can easily reach €30k or more.

    Its the reason I left the business last year. Its the reason landlords are leaving the business in spite of high rents. Its even the reason for high rents. It is not just a statistical anomaly.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    I don't disagree with you. But that wasn't the question I asked in fairness.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Graham


    DubCount wrote: »
    At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    A case does not equal an eviction.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,051 ✭✭✭ Browney7


    DubCount wrote: »
    Not surprisingly, the RTB are not keen to highlight this, but you can extrapolate from their data. At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    The range of timescales that the open cases will require will obviously vary from the ones that will accept an RTB judgement, to the ones that will go through appeals and court and require the bailiffs to call around.

    Of course, these stats exclude all the landlords who pay off rogue tenants to leave quietly, and the ones that just leave and wreck the place for which no RTB case is launched.

    All this shows that the majority of tenants are good upstanding citizens that pay their way and play by the rules. However, there are sufficient rogues out there to make it a worrying risk. When the cost impact of coming across a rogue that will take 18 months to evict and wreck your house/apartment, the costs of lost rent, legal fees and repairs can easily reach €30k or more.

    Its the reason I left the business last year. Its the reason landlords are leaving the business in spite of high rents. Its even the reason for high rents. It is not just a statistical anomaly.

    Not fully sure what source you are getting your dispute stats from but It's hardly fair to cite validity of termination disputes as being a wholly bad tenant when the RTB 2018 report finds that 42% of NOTs were actually invalid.

    Also, many applications to the RTB cite more than one reason so again, aggregating the reasons doesn't equal number of tenancies. What's the average length of a tenancy in Ireland -3 or 4 years?

    If the sale proceeds for your properties were 30% lower would you have left the business? It's a fair reason to say tenant risk was a motivator in you selling up but the strong market prices achievable were also a significant motivator I'm sure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭ handlemaster


    Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

    I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

    https://www.passiveairbnb.com/top-cities-and-countries-where-airbnb-is-illegal-or-restricted/

    It's their property do with it as they like.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    See you have one side saying the stats are the tip of the iceberg, the figures are a lot higher.

    The other side says oh no the stats can be discarded because a case isn't really a case, and in fact the figures are a lot lower.



    For a business that people say is like a gold mine, (usually those not in it) I don't see people rushing to get into it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    I agree property was once a great investment in Ireland.
    I know a lot of people who, going back about 5 years ago were all well off and wanted to get into property investment.
    I even thought long and hard about it myself but decided against it when the government started dictating to the property owners. I saw the writing on the wall at that stage. I lived in San Francisco for a time and saw it there.

    One of my friends did invest, but the others saw the writing on the wall over the last few years like myself and kept their money.
    The one that did get into it is dying to get out of it now and will as soon as his tenant leaves.
    I really dont understand how anyone with half a brain could think that property investment in Ireland is a good idea in the last few years.

    And I really dont understand those with empty properties renting them now instead of getting out.
    And it is going from, bad to , worse, to really bad again and no sign of it getting better.
    But theres one born every minute I suppose.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    Very little gives the return on investment that property does. Even if the return on property is completely over exaggerated by most. The margin gets slimmer every intervention.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,643 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Graham


    It's their property do with it as they like.

    Mod

    Are you ignoring planning laws or suggesting others should?


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,710 ✭✭✭✭ Dav010


    Graham wrote: »
    Mod

    Are you ignoring planning laws or suggesting others should?

    I suspect the first sentence in runswithascript’s post had little to do with planning laws and more to do with a misplaced sense of morality.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,008 ✭✭✭ Sunny Disposition


    I think the falls in rent in many parts of the country are coming anyway, regardless of Covid 19.
    Housing is just too expensive, rents are way too high in Dublin especially.
    As a result it has already become a big political issue and parties like SF will prioritise tenants rather than landlords. I say that as someone who is a landlord and had a few places in Dublin up until lately.
    Politicians are going to have to regulate, they’ll take action against AirBnB, put in rent caps, promote supply, all sorts of measures that are good for society but not landlords.
    The last couple of years were a golden era for landlordism, but it just can’t continue indefinitely.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,760 ✭✭✭✭ partyjungle




  • Registered Users Posts: 2 ashleysantms


    On an unrelated note does anyone know where I could bulk buy popcorn?

    I'm looking forward to the meltdowns we're going to see here over the next weeks and months.

    You know what they say, easy come easy go.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    There is a ton of 1 bed apartments to rent across dublin for under €1000 right now but they are also being snapped up just as quick it seems

    It looks like it includes all the student residences as well? Never used daft much so maybe I am reading it incorrectly?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,674 ✭✭✭✭ beauf


    ...
    As a result it has already become a big political issue and parties like SF will prioritise tenants rather than landlords....

    Aren't they the party with a lot of property assets?


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,760 ✭✭✭✭ partyjungle


    Hubertj wrote: »
    It looks like it includes all the student residences as well? Never used daft much so maybe I am reading it incorrectly?

    I rarely use it either. I searched by less than 1000 across dublin


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik






    Yes my brother actually had taken one and next thing he knew it was given to someone else. It only took him a few hours to find another though.
    Times are good, for not too long is my guess. Get in there while you can.
    You can go visit them thoough. Some landlords will have video walk arounds and you'll get the gist though.


  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 19,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Mr.S



    Sidepoint, but jesus the quality of Dublin apartments is such a joke.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭ Edgware


    Mr.S wrote: »
    Sidepoint, but jesus the quality of Dublin apartments is such a joke.

    There are some very good apartments and some desperate ones. Ones where you hit the bed as you open the door etc.
    However there is a bit of supply coming on stream so that is good news.


  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 19,646 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Mr.S


    Edgware wrote: »
    There are some very good apartments and some desperate ones. Ones where you hit the bed as you open the door etc.
    However there is a bit of supply coming on stream so that is good news.

    That's my point - you either have luxury lets for 2k+ or crack dens, very little "standard" apartments.

    But yes, supply coming back is good either way.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭ handlemaster



    Bedsits and student aparts is all I see , hardly a ton of apts.


  • Registered Users Posts: 267 ✭✭ overkill602


    Mr.S wrote: »
    Sidepoint, but jesus the quality of Dublin apartments is such a joke.


    your looking to hard and on a budget lots on up to required standards if you want


  • Registered Users Posts: 37,293 ✭✭✭✭ the_syco


    Blut2 wrote: »
    The vast majority of tenants are reasonable adults, if you treat them that way they'll treat you the same.
    And the minority are the ones that are the issue. They'll see a LL's decency as weakness, and seek to exploit it.
    The Daft rental report published on Friday says to expect significant falls in rent due to the extraordinary shock to housing demand. Oddly the report wasn't widely covered by Irish media and the few articles that did cover it did not quote the words "significant", "falls" and "rents".

    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch
    Drop in sales due to virus not allowing people to view houses shocker.
    Graham wrote: »
    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.
    I say most of them will be looking to sell up, as I doubt the AirBnB hosts will come back to a market where you currently can't evict people.
    I think the falls in rent in many parts of the country are coming anyway, regardless of Covid 19.
    I doubt it. There's more people than houses, so the only reason rents will drop is when demand for accommodation drops.
    Politicians are going to have to regulate, they’ll take action against AirBnB, put in rent caps, promote supply, all sorts of measures that are good for society but not landlords.
    Implementing measures only against the landlords will just drive them away.
    Edgware wrote: »
    However there is a bit of supply coming on stream so that is good news.
    I see a load of apartments built for students at Broadstone; when they go live, it should free up a few places around Dublin. But the current virus could probably mean that they won't go live until 2021.


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭ Ozark707


    Quite a number of examples here of places with multiple drops.

    https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭ JimmyVik


    I think they will do everything in their power not to hit the tax payer this time.
    I really thing that all capital spending for the next few years will be reined right in.
    So much so that any government sponsored housing will not be built for a few years. You may see the ones already started being finished at a trickle, but you wont see any big projects that were due to be started in the next year or two getting going.
    That and roads etc will just crawl. The national BB plan will be put on ice. Id say the childrens hospital will keep going.
    We are in for a huge cut in any form of government spending. There will be no social welfare christmas bonus or increases. No pension increases. No childrens allowance increases.

    Im all over the place here, but what I mean is that government spending will just die for a few years.


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