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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,031 ✭✭✭ lomb


    Its not the interest payments that is the concern its the capital repayments. We don't know what covid is going to cost us without wanting to use money for capital projects. We will be in a recession after this and the first priority is to create employment to generate tax receipts.

    Capital is never repayed though. It keeps getting rolled into new issuances. With unlimited ECB buying and liquidity creating a market that's how the game works. It's one rule for us and one for the Euro/Country

    The farce of this is this whole thing is likely to cost the state nothing due to near zero rates.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭ Shefwedfan


    To the OP you mention AirBnB and illegal? How is it illegal? Thanks


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭ Shefwedfan


    I didn’t vote SF in the last election, but when I see the stories about AirBNB I have a small bit of regret. FG and FF will do anything but interfere in property or business to help the average working person. A clear out is definitely needed.
    People are now paying over €2,000 a month just to RENT an average property. That’s a crazy situation, but the outgoing Government let it happen.
    Have a lot of issues with SF but the country needs a turn to the left, this laissez faire approach to housing failed very badly.

    I suggest you have a read of this and many more articles similar, the SF “story” never added up and it certainly doesn’t now: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%25C3%25A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859%3fmode=amp


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,710 ✭✭✭✭ Dav010


    Token efforts were made, which failed utterly. Average rents are too high. It’s unacceptable and people are going to elect politicians who they think at least care about the problem, as they should.

    I’m a landlord myself, but the proverbial dog with mallet in its arse can see that the current market is dysfunctional and completely disastrous for average workers.

    In that case you are in a position to rent your property for next to nothing.

    Considering that virtually every economist agrees that lack of supply is the biggest contributory factor in rental costs, a fact evident to anyone trying to find a rental property over the past few years, in your opinion, how would SF magic up 100k houses over the term of a Government? They haven’t been able to answer that themselves, maybe you can help them out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 35,028 ✭✭✭✭ LuckyLloyd


    https://news.crunchbase.com/news/silver-lake-and-sixth-street-partners-to-invest-1b-in-airbnb/

    AirBnB have gone into the market for more capital. Could just be a contingency rather than a cash flow need. Can’t see them going public this year now.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭ The Student


    snotboogie wrote: »
    It's a lot more complicated than that. You can't tax your way out of a depression. In theory, long term projects would help us repay the principal. Counter cyclical investment is how an economy should be run, spending on useful long term infrastructure in a recession to inject money into the economy while saving on the projects that would need to be done anyway and running budget surpluses in the boom times to build credibility, save money and avoid overheating the economy.

    I am not saying you tax your way out of a depression (we will enter a recession not a depression). Yes we should inject money during recessionary times but we don't have this money to invest. We are only just balancing our books over the last year or so.

    Long term capital projects that can reduce our cost base long term will help generate cost savings to Ireland and our need to borrow. It was suggested we undertake a large social house building project.

    This will not generate any significant economic activity to generate tax income. Having people employed and spending money is what generates income tax hence the reason the state is making the covid 19 payments and made them so easy to access and at a higher level than standard job seekers allowance.

    Certainly look at rural broadband, look at investing in Green energy these will yield cost savings longer term and will make us more competitive. House building in the short term wont.

    We don't do social housing well although this is a different argument. We have this mindset that everybody should be housed no matter what they do. I don't want this forum to go off tangent.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,158 ✭✭✭ The Student


    lomb wrote: »
    Capital is never repayed though. It keeps getting rolled into new issuances. With unlimited ECB buying and liquidity creating a market that's how the game works. It's one rule for us and one for the Euro/Country

    The farce of this is this whole thing is likely to cost the state nothing due to near zero rates.

    Yes you can refinance via new issuance's but at some point the interest rates will increase and hence our debt (even if it is only interest debt). Whether the debt is capital or interest the monetary repayments we have to make will increase even if we only pay the interest charge.

    We still owe from the last crisis which has to be paid even if its only the interest charge we have to pay. Remember every euro borrowed no matter from whom is owed to someone.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,008 ✭✭✭ Sunny Disposition


    Dav010 wrote: »
    In that case you are in a position to rent your property for next to nothing.

    Considering that virtually every economist agrees that lack of supply is the biggest contributory factor in rental costs, a fact evident to anyone trying to find a rental property over the past few years, in your opinion, how would SF magic up 100k houses over the term of a Government? They haven’t been able to answer that themselves, maybe you can help them out.

    SF aren’t the whole solution, I know that.
    The protest vote for them is significant though, and welcome in that it shows that failure to deliver on housing now has consequences. If parties know they will be punished for allowing prices to rise and rise the thinking will change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭ Ozark707


    Leo predicting that rents will fall...
    Both parties believe the current emergency rent freeze won’t need to be extended as more properties become available on the market due to the Covid-19 crisis. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar told this newspaper: “I don’t think that will be necessary. In fact, I think rents are likely to fall.”

    https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-failfg-pledge-to-look-after-tenants-in-new-deal-39121615.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »

    I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,591 ✭✭✭ accensi0n


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

    "Rents have been increasing 4% per year for the past 4 years, all rents should be reduced by 16% immediately"

    :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    accensi0n wrote: »
    "Rents have been increasing 4% per year for the past 4 years, all rents should be reduced by 16% immediately"

    :pac:

    Did someone actually say that? Or is that what the estimate for rent reductions are? Or you’re taking the pi*s?


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,591 ✭✭✭ accensi0n


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Did someone actually say that? Or is that what the estimate for rent reductions are? Or you’re taking the pi*s?

    Apologies, just taking the p*ss, the moaning will never end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭ Shefwedfan


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.


    Rents would be at an all time low and those "parties" would still bw whinning about it......they cater for one part of society, the section that wants everything for nothing


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭ Ozark707


    Shefwedfan wrote: »
    Rents would be at an all time low and those "parties" would still bw whinning about it......they cater for one part of society, the section that wants everything for nothing

    Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.

    Are they quickly correcting downwards?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭ Shefwedfan


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Now that rents look like they are quickly correcting downwards it will be interesting to see if they continue to bang this drum much going forward.

    Where have rents dropped?

    Nobody can move so not sure how the market is anything but stable


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭ Ozark707


    Shefwedfan wrote: »
    Where have rents dropped?

    Nobody can move so not sure how the market is anything but stable

    The median price of 1 bed, 2 bed (apt & house) and 3 bed apt all dropped by ~5% between 15 March and 01 Apr.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    Since the 1st of April there have been several instances of other places dropping their asking prices so when these charts are updated at the start of May it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or it reverses to norm.

    https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

    Previously I had not heard of anyone securing rentals at less than asking, in fact I had heard of several anecdotes where people offered more than asking in order to secure a place. There was an article in IT one or two weeks back where EA's were saying that offers of 10% off asking were now coming in.

    Whether this is a temporary blip remains to be seen once the relaxation comes (possibly next month).


  • Registered Users Posts: 267 ✭✭ overkill602


    anyone trying to let at the moment would be in a smaller market with some bargain hunters, difficult time to vet potential tenants some airbnb stuff offer less than 6 months to avoid part 4.

    the market is not functioning it depends on relaxation of lock down if students can resume college and tourism start to open up again.

    Those who are not being gouged, have good accommodation and management will stay put as long as they can afford.

    Their will be reductions but some landlords and tenants are still tied in to below market these may be of less quality than the newer lets ie reits who may come under pressure like the last recession if the market swing in tenants favor it will find it own level regs, extra taxes and supply are different this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 712 ✭✭✭ Ozark707


    anyone trying to let at the moment would be in a smaller market with some bargain hunters, difficult time to vet potential tenants some airbnb stuff offer less than 6 months to avoid part 4.

    the market is not functioning it depends on relaxation of lock down if students can resume college and tourism start to open up again.

    Those who are not being gouged, have good accommodation and management will stay put as long as they can afford.

    Their will be reductions but some landlords and tenants are still tied in to below market these may be of less quality than the newer lets ie reits who may come under pressure like the last recession if the market swing in tenants favor it will find it own level regs, extra taxes and supply are different this time.

    Students should return in the medium term. The question I would have is whether there will be the same number of overseas students coming as up to now. If not then the purpose built student accommodation could come under pressure. I had noticed that pre-Covid there seemed to be quite a bit of availability even though term was well under way. There is quite a bit of extra supply to come on stream in the medium to long term (take a trip through Belfield for example and you will see several multi-story blocks under construction).


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,971 ✭✭✭ Assetbacked


    It's safe to say that rent increases in the next six to twelve months are highly unlikely. As for rents falling, in the next six months demand will be minimal for the less affordable rentals so long as decent places are available at affordable rents so it is probable that there will be fairly significant falls in this time. After this time, it's hard to know at this stage. Demand from foreign tourism and student accommodation will be gone until 2021.

    Foreign tourism is probably dust until summer season 2021 and international students are highly unlikely to return for university in September, maybe for semester two best case scenario, meaning close to a full 12 months of vacancies for the student accommodation catering for that market and a full 12 months for the tourism market. One silver lining to tourism may be demand from domestic tourism as people desperately seek some form of escape from work and staying home for a few months.

    I think the general rental market for workers is going to take a hit for the next six months at least due to people not being able to return to Dublin from the country or abroad. This also applies to executives and short term employees being brought over where companies would have had leases on apartments to cover short term stays - these won't be necessary. In addition, if leases are ending in the next few weeks and months, people will take advantage of the cheaper rentals available currently and move to the cheaper places. WFH still being applied meaning the demand for prime location apartments may not be there. After six months, whether jobs are lost, further reducing demand for rentals, will be dependent on how long the stringent measures are applied. It's too early to say at this stage as everything is on hold.

    The longer term picture points to huge numbers of build-to-lets being granted planning permission the past year and a half which would increase supply to the market and help alleviate the hyper growth of rents the past few years. The investors are in it for the long term and all I see is a delay of a year or so with these projects as a result of covid19.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    The median price of 1 bed, 2 bed (apt & house) and 3 bed apt all dropped by ~5% between 15 March and 01 Apr.

    https://bl.ocks.org/pinsterdev/raw/234b4a5310a14a32e080/

    Since the 1st of April there have been several instances of other places dropping their asking prices so when these charts are updated at the start of May it will be interesting to see if this trend continues or it reverses to norm.

    https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-irish-property-bubble/rental-price-drops

    Previously I had not heard of anyone securing rentals at less than asking, in fact I had heard of several anecdotes where people offered more than asking in order to secure a place. There was an article in IT one or two weeks back where EA's were saying that offers of 10% off asking were now coming in.

    Whether this is a temporary blip remains to be seen once the relaxation comes (possibly next month).

    Interesting stats especially on : bed houses moving in opposite direction. Does that mean more came within propels price range?
    Some crazy numbers being looked for on rentals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,875 ✭✭✭ Edgware


    Hubertj wrote: »
    I’d be happy if there was some reduction in rents if it meant i do’t have to listen to SF, PBP and the other losers whine on about it constantly.

    Sorry it doesnt work that way.
    Whining is party policy along with never acknowledging anything positive about Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    Edgware wrote: »
    Sorry it doesnt work that way.
    Whining is party policy along with never acknowledging anything positive about Ireland.

    I know, it’s just that the sound of people like obrion, Murphy,Barrett etc grates on my nerves really really really really badly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 107 ✭✭ Ticking and Bashing


    I can't imagine IRES REIT (Ireland's biggest private landlord) reducing rents anytime soon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,943 ✭✭✭ handlemaster


    Italy and Spain are opening back up there economies , ireland should do so within a month. We will all learn to live with the virus and move on until there is a vaccine. Rents will stagnate. But depending in the speed of the return . You might actually see a scramble to get back to Dublin and rents move up again. It's hard to say. But if you look at the US they have a clown in charge and have no clue how to organise this could drag on and on if a vaccine isn't found.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,079 ✭✭✭ Blut2


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Are they quickly correcting downwards?

    [img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

    Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

    I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭ Hubertj


    Blut2 wrote: »
    [img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

    Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

    I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.

    Does it show how many are being rented? Some look like they have as when you click the link to daft is gives an error?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Belgrave property who own something like 50 STL studio and 1 bed properties in D2, D4, D6 have plastered 1 MONTH FREE RENT all over their ads. Looks like a sign of desperation to get people in for “free” in April and then monthly until the tourists start coming back.

    https://www.daft.ie/22020888


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  • Registered Users Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭ Rodin


    Blut2 wrote: »
    [img][/img]https://i.imgur.com/xUObSsj.jpg

    Its happening pretty quickly already in Dublin.

    I'd expect by the 1st May that map will be a lot more dense again, given that on the 1st Apr we were only just starting our full economic lockdown.

    That April map shows a larger area than the February map.


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