Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

bilston · 13-04-2020 11:03AM

It may be down to Easter but yesterday saw the lowest percentage of new cases in both Spain and Italy. I suppose we will get a better picture in the next few days but hopefully it is further progress.

Obviously some restrictions are being lifted today in Italy and particularly Spain. I think we will all be watching on quite nervously to see what impact that has on infection rates in the next 7-14 days. I suppose it is likely they will go up a bit, but to what extent, will it be manageable for the respective health systems?

bodhrandude · 13-04-2020 11:03AM

A song to enjoy in your front garden in the sunshine

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Nonoperational · 13-04-2020 11:03AM

smelly sock wrote: »

No i didnt have any ppe or any other materials to clean with. Nurses and doctors are part of the wider problems in the hse.

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 11:14AM

114 on ventilators I think they said, going on other countries experience the outlook is not good for many of those .

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:15AM

Mr.S wrote: »

So from May 7th they are projecting no more deaths from COVID-19 in Ireland? Seems a little optimistic?

Looking at Italy, Spain and France - same sort of projections. I'd love to think they are correct, but it seems so unlikely?

I wonder is it the impact of severe containment measures bringing the RO value down that they are anticipating? Or maybe a rushed vaccine? Or antiviral meds in the pipeline? Or a combination of all?

I haven't dug into their methodology but I have read up on the organisation and they definitely are the experts in their field.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 11:15AM

Nonoperational wrote: »

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

I think you are some what correct. We do have a lot of hard working nurses and doctors but a few problematic ones too.

It just gets to me that some people are trying to bestow sainthoods on the HSE since Covid 19. Its a bad health service especially if you dont have private insurance and dont qualify fir a medical card.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 11:18AM

Mr.S wrote: »

So from May 7th they are projecting no more deaths from COVID-19 in Ireland? Seems a little optimistic?

Looking at Italy, Spain and France - same sort of projections. I'd love to think they are correct, but it seems so unlikely?

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:20AM

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

Who might have a better coherent plan?

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 11:21AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

Do they also model daily new cases? Really interesting site.

DevilsHaircut · 13-04-2020 11:21AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder is it the impact of severe containment measures bringing the RO value down that they are anticipating? Or maybe a rushed vaccine? Or antiviral meds in the pipeline? Or a combination of all?

I haven't dug into their methodology but I have read up on the organisation and they definitely are the experts in their field.

They're assuming that it will 'burn itself out' and be eradicated within a particular country.

Gynoid · 13-04-2020 11:23AM

Widdensushi wrote: »

114 on ventilators I think they said, going on other countries experience the outlook is not good for many of those .

Does anyone know about how many people in Ireland would be on ventilators on a normal day without Covid?

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:26AM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Do they also model daily new cases? Really interesting site.

It is. Those are the only graphs that they do for Ireland that I'm aware of. They do a lot of countries as well. The UK projections are frightening. I suspect because they include Covid-19 deaths that official UK numbers ignore e.g. care homes.

Pulsating Star · 13-04-2020 11:27AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally.

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.
.

They had us down for 401 deaths a week or so ago iirc. At that time the min and max band wasn’t as wide. Seems they are not quite as confident we will stay on track.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:30AM

Pulsating Star wrote: »

They had us down for 401 deaths a week or so ago iirc. At that time the min and max band wasn’t as wide. Seems they are not quite as confident we will stay on track.

Yeah. They've adjusted it up to about 500 now. They also adjusted the UK downwards due to increased data (they published the rationale on the website) but it's still frightening. I wouldn't question the modelling so much as the fluidity of data available. Which is understandable as governments and health services scramble to respond.

polesheep · 13-04-2020 11:30AM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Three weeks is what is required unfortunately. Infections and death rates are increasing. The virus is growing , releasing the lockdown to any degree in a week's time will only allow a second wave of infections maybe worse than before. It's quite clear what there plan is here.

I have never seen a more appropriate user name.

Looney1 · 13-04-2020 11:31AM

Banks increasing loan moratorium to 6 months. Wouldn't do that if we were near the end

Gynoid · 13-04-2020 11:32AM

https://m.independent.ie/videos/donegal-grandad-returns-home-to-neighbours-applause-after-13-days-in-icu-recovering-from-covid-19-39121899.html

It has probably been posted long ago but the video at that link of Donegal grandad Donal coming home after 13 days in hospital, including being on a ventilator, to his neighbours welcome and thanking them "from the bottom of his heart"....ah god, would yiz stop chopping onions!

stephenjmcd · 13-04-2020 11:33AM

Looney1 wrote: »

Banks increasing loan moratorium to 6 months. Wouldn't do that if we were near the end

Of course they would. Not everyone will be back in work within 3 months of this starting

easypazz · 13-04-2020 11:35AM

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

I think the issue is the bank holiday, they won't want to be extending it again.

My guess is around 2 weeks from today they will be hoping to announce what restrictions can be lifted on May 5th.

Gives building sites etc. a chance to get organised.

bilston · 13-04-2020 11:37AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is. Those are the only graphs that they do for Ireland that I'm aware of. They do a lot of countries as well. The UK projections are frightening. I suspect because they include Covid-19 deaths that official UK numbers ignore e.g. care homes.

It projects another 1,500 deaths in Spain between now and August...I'd be delighted if that were the case but unfortunately there will probably be another 1,500 deaths in Spain by the end of the week.

Interesting read anyway.

Tony EH · 13-04-2020 11:38AM

Nonoperational wrote: »

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

There's a silly idea that goes around that our healthcare system is a disaster, when the truth is very different. Sure, there are issues that need sorting within it and there are some horror stories. But that's replicated in every system.

We could improve things in immediate terms though, by getting people with colds and flu symptoms to stay away from A+E. People like that need to just cop on. Also, unnecessary GP referrals are a large strain on the same dept. Been there myself for a simple complaint that even I knew was treatable with a simple course of antibiotics.

Lastly, get private patients the fuck out of public hospitals. If you want to go private, go to the Beacon or whatever. No need for them to be bed blockers in the public system at all.

BattleCorp · 13-04-2020 11:38AM

easypazz wrote: »

I think the issue is the bank holiday, they won't want to be extending it again.

My guess is around 2 weeks from today they will be hoping to announce what restrictions can be lifted on May 5th.

Gives building sites etc. a chance to get organised.

Most of the restrictions will be extended further. People who can work from home will still be required to work from home. They won't open up the pubs, schools or anything that would gather loads of people together.

They might let some factories, building sites back to work if they can guarantee social distancing in work but it certainly won't be a return to normal.

PowerToWait · 13-04-2020 11:39AM

smelly sock wrote: »

Hang on pal. My brother is frontline too. Ive had plenty of bad experiences in irish hospitals with both nurses and doctors. The people like myself who stay at home and watch Netflix will save thousamds of lives directly.

My mother was left in her own excrement for 3 hours while 5 nurses were at the station drinking tea. I had to ask 6 times for her to be looked after and the attitude was appalling. I really hope those people dont work in the hospitals anymore.

I fully respect the hard workers putting the hours in to look after the poorly but the system is ****e for mulitple reasons. Not just over admin or governance issue but frontline problems too

Covid 19 hasnt changed the fact the health service is shocking.

Couldn’t agree more. Have had extensive experience of the healthcare system in Ireland and sometimes the attitude, bedside manner and even duty of care leaves a lot to be desired. Not going in to details, but there’s a lot of incompetence and outright laziness at the ‘frontline’. I’ve witnessed it, as have many others I know.

That having been said, fair play to all doing their jobs to the correct standard, I’m grateful to have experienced some excellent care first hand.

BattleCorp · 13-04-2020 11:40AM

Tony EH wrote: »

Lastly, get private patients the fuck out of public hospitals. If you want to go private, go to the Beacon or whatever. No need for them to be bed blockers in the public system at all.

Why are they bedblockers? If they didn't have private health insurance, they'd be there anyway and the HSE would be getting fcuk all money towards their care. At least this way, the HSE get paid for looking after them.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:42AM

bilston wrote: »

It projects another 1,500 deaths in Spain between now and August...I'd be delighted if that were the case but unfortunately there will probably be another 1,500 deaths in Spain by the end of the week.

Interesting read anyway.

Spain's deaths per day is staying at the upper end of their predictions but the curve is right. Following that curve, you might see 3000 more deaths by August. Which they would probably settle for.

polesheep · 13-04-2020 11:42AM

Tony EH wrote: »

There's a silly idea that goes around that our healthcare system is a disaster, when the truth is very different. Sure, there are issues that need sorting within it and there are some horror stories. But that's replicated in every system.

We could improve things in immediate terms though, by getting people with colds and flu symptoms to stay away from A+E. People like that need to just cop on. Also, unnecessary GP referrals are a large strain on the same dept. Been there myself for a simple complaint that even I knew was treatable with a simple course of antibiotics.

Lastly, get private patients the fuck out of public hospitals. If you want to go private, go to the Beacon or whatever. No need for them to be bed blockers in the public system at all.

Our healthcare system is a disaster. Many of the staff are excellent, but the system is definitely a disaster.

polesheep · 13-04-2020 11:44AM

PowerToWait wrote: »

Couldn’t agree more. Have had extensive experience of the healthcare system in Ireland and sometimes the attitude, bedside manner and even duty of care leaves a lot to be desired. Not going in to details, but there’s a lot of incompetence and outright laziness at the ‘frontline’. I’ve witnessed it, as have many others I know.

That having been said, fair play to all doing their jobs to the correct standard, I’m grateful to have experienced some excellent care first hand.

This couldn't be further from the truth. Perhaps you weren't au fait with the work being done. The frontline staff in our hospitals are extremely professional and caring.

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 11:47AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What a stupid comment. Have you ever been in a hospital ward? You don't just start stripping beds and cleaning patients without proper equipment and training.

Have you evey changed a babies nappy or soiled bed? What equipment or PPE did you use?

Get a grip will ya. Hospital Ward's and bathrooms have toilet paper and mop up paper. Get off your arse and do something.

podgeandrodge · 13-04-2020 11:47AM

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Ok. Well now that you've decided what's best, and you clearly have access to information that Leo & Co could only dream about, contact them and get things going so!

Strumms · 13-04-2020 11:47AM

polesheep wrote: »

Our healthcare system is a disaster. Many of the staff are excellent, but the system is definitely a disaster.

Frontline staff are superheroes, I had to find out the hard way. The ‘system’ is absolutely fücked though... the next politician or the next anyone who goes on about us having the ‘best healthcare in the world’ or even a ‘world class health system’ I’m going to personally try get them sectioned.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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