Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Michael Dwyer · 13-04-2020 11:37AM

freshpopcorn wrote: »

But we would have avoided Saipan

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 11:37AM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

It actually projects zero deaths from 11 May.

Saw that.

13-04-2020 11:39AM

Wombatman wrote: »

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

What a stupid comment. Have you ever been in a hospital ward? You don't just start stripping beds and cleaning patients without proper equipment and training.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 11:42AM

Wombatman wrote: »

You left her there for 3 hours and didn't clean it up yourself?

Some people are always looking for someone else to blame and shame.

No i didnt have any ppe or any other materials to clean with. Nurses and doctors are part of the wider problems in the hse.

cnocbui · 13-04-2020 11:43AM

China stepping up efforts to absolve themselves of responsibility.

Hong Kong (CNN)China has imposed restrictions on the publication of academic research on the origins of the novel coronavirus, according to a central government directive and online notices published by two Chinese universities, that have since been removed from the web.
Under the new policy, all academic papers on Covid-19 will be subject to extra vetting before being submitted for publication. Studies on the origin of the virus will receive extra scrutiny and must be approved by central government officials, according to the now-deleted posts.
A medical expert in Hong Kong who collaborated with mainland researchers to publish a clinical analysis of Covid-19 cases in an international medical journal said his work did not undergo such vetting in February.

The increased scrutiny appears to be the latest effort by the Chinese government to control the narrative on the origins of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed more than 100,000 lives and sickened 1.7 million people worldwide since it first broke out in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/12/asia/china-coronavirus-research-restrictions-intl-hnk/index.html

Christy42 · 13-04-2020 11:47AM

Poorside wrote: »

This has the sound of getting us ready for big jumps in numbers while trying to keep things calm

We had the big jump to 700-800 cases a day. That seems t be linked with the extra tests being done and will drop once our backlog runs out. There are still plenty sick so the potential for more deaths is always there unfortunately.

While I am sure plenty will use this as a stick to beat us with in comparison to nations that test less it is important to have tested as much as possible. Even with the fact that it brings bad news.

caveat emptor · 13-04-2020 11:49AM

Great micro learning course by euro CDC. (ECDC) . Goes through doning and doffing PPE. While aimed at healthcare staff gives a good insight in proper practice with masks etc.

https://eva.ecdc.europa.eu/mod/forum/discuss.php?d=1627

cloudatlas · 13-04-2020 11:53AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Your petty little world is sad. Get over McGregor and move on, live life.
I don't mind if you don't like him but at least have a good argument if you are going to start. Covid-19 is not the place, he has been pretty good on that front.

No thanks. Edit: my response was to people bleating on about closing ports and airports as if that will make any remarkable difference months later. Conor has donated money great but he is not an authority and should shut up and stop abusing workers online.

bilston · 13-04-2020 12:03PM

It may be down to Easter but yesterday saw the lowest percentage of new cases in both Spain and Italy. I suppose we will get a better picture in the next few days but hopefully it is further progress.

Obviously some restrictions are being lifted today in Italy and particularly Spain. I think we will all be watching on quite nervously to see what impact that has on infection rates in the next 7-14 days. I suppose it is likely they will go up a bit, but to what extent, will it be manageable for the respective health systems?

bodhrandude · 13-04-2020 12:03PM

A song to enjoy in your front garden in the sunshine

.

Nonoperational · 13-04-2020 12:03PM

smelly sock wrote: »

No i didnt have any ppe or any other materials to clean with. Nurses and doctors are part of the wider problems in the hse.

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

Widdensushi · 13-04-2020 12:14PM

114 on ventilators I think they said, going on other countries experience the outlook is not good for many of those .

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 12:15PM

Mr.S wrote: »

So from May 7th they are projecting no more deaths from COVID-19 in Ireland? Seems a little optimistic?

Looking at Italy, Spain and France - same sort of projections. I'd love to think they are correct, but it seems so unlikely?

I wonder is it the impact of severe containment measures bringing the RO value down that they are anticipating? Or maybe a rushed vaccine? Or antiviral meds in the pipeline? Or a combination of all?

I haven't dug into their methodology but I have read up on the organisation and they definitely are the experts in their field.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 12:15PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

I think you are some what correct. We do have a lot of hard working nurses and doctors but a few problematic ones too.

It just gets to me that some people are trying to bestow sainthoods on the HSE since Covid 19. Its a bad health service especially if you dont have private insurance and dont qualify fir a medical card.

smelly sock · 13-04-2020 12:18PM

Mr.S wrote: »

So from May 7th they are projecting no more deaths from COVID-19 in Ireland? Seems a little optimistic?

Looking at Italy, Spain and France - same sort of projections. I'd love to think they are correct, but it seems so unlikely?

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 12:20PM

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

Who might have a better coherent plan?

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 13-04-2020 12:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally. Obviously you can build as excellent a model as you like but, the data is vital. For me, Ireland's data, while not perfect, is relatively accurate compared to many countries. The model uses data up to and including 9th April. Their take on Ireland is very encouraging. Sample predictions:

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.

The model allows for large margins e.g. our deaths per day could spike up to 55 this week. Irregardless, they predict that peak is being passed this week. Ditto, deaths by August could be 350-800. Of course, the realities on the ground might be very different but it is about the best model out there (from a global perspective).

Do they also model daily new cases? Really interesting site.

DevilsHaircut · 13-04-2020 12:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I wonder is it the impact of severe containment measures bringing the RO value down that they are anticipating? Or maybe a rushed vaccine? Or antiviral meds in the pipeline? Or a combination of all?

I haven't dug into their methodology but I have read up on the organisation and they definitely are the experts in their field.

They're assuming that it will 'burn itself out' and be eradicated within a particular country.

Gynoid · 13-04-2020 12:23PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

114 on ventilators I think they said, going on other countries experience the outlook is not good for many of those .

Does anyone know about how many people in Ireland would be on ventilators on a normal day without Covid?

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 12:26PM

Ivy Big Looter wrote: »

Do they also model daily new cases? Really interesting site.

It is. Those are the only graphs that they do for Ireland that I'm aware of. They do a lot of countries as well. The UK projections are frightening. I suspect because they include Covid-19 deaths that official UK numbers ignore e.g. care homes.

Pulsating Star · 13-04-2020 12:27PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

This is modelling by a large health analytics organisation based in Seattle. It's well-respected globally.

500 deaths by August.
We are just passing peak deaths per day.
We have passed peak hospital bed use.
.

They had us down for 401 deaths a week or so ago iirc. At that time the min and max band wasn’t as wide. Seems they are not quite as confident we will stay on track.

Professor Moriarty · 13-04-2020 12:30PM

Pulsating Star wrote: »

They had us down for 401 deaths a week or so ago iirc. At that time the min and max band wasn’t as wide. Seems they are not quite as confident we will stay on track.

Yeah. They've adjusted it up to about 500 now. They also adjusted the UK downwards due to increased data (they published the rationale on the website) but it's still frightening. I wouldn't question the modelling so much as the fluidity of data available. Which is understandable as governments and health services scramble to respond.

polesheep · 13-04-2020 12:30PM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Three weeks is what is required unfortunately. Infections and death rates are increasing. The virus is growing , releasing the lockdown to any degree in a week's time will only allow a second wave of infections maybe worse than before. It's quite clear what there plan is here.

I have never seen a more appropriate user name.

Looney1 · 13-04-2020 12:31PM

Banks increasing loan moratorium to 6 months. Wouldn't do that if we were near the end

Gynoid · 13-04-2020 12:32PM

https://m.independent.ie/videos/donegal-grandad-returns-home-to-neighbours-applause-after-13-days-in-icu-recovering-from-covid-19-39121899.html

It has probably been posted long ago but the video at that link of Donegal grandad Donal coming home after 13 days in hospital, including being on a ventilator, to his neighbours welcome and thanking them "from the bottom of his heart"....ah god, would yiz stop chopping onions!

stephenjmcd · 13-04-2020 12:33PM

Looney1 wrote: »

Banks increasing loan moratorium to 6 months. Wouldn't do that if we were near the end

Of course they would. Not everyone will be back in work within 3 months of this starting

easypazz · 13-04-2020 12:35PM

smelly sock wrote: »

I think we have peaked and the worst is behind us. I fully agree with lockdown for another 7 days but until the 5th of May is crazy stuff. It smacks of the govt and HSE not having any coherent plan to get the country back working etc.

Im more optimistic by the day when i see the figures and data that come the summer beaches etc and holidays will be businness again along with work places .

I think the issue is the bank holiday, they won't want to be extending it again.

My guess is around 2 weeks from today they will be hoping to announce what restrictions can be lifted on May 5th.

Gives building sites etc. a chance to get organised.

bilston · 13-04-2020 12:37PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It is. Those are the only graphs that they do for Ireland that I'm aware of. They do a lot of countries as well. The UK projections are frightening. I suspect because they include Covid-19 deaths that official UK numbers ignore e.g. care homes.

It projects another 1,500 deaths in Spain between now and August...I'd be delighted if that were the case but unfortunately there will probably be another 1,500 deaths in Spain by the end of the week.

Interesting read anyway.

Tony EH · 13-04-2020 12:38PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

I'm sorry you had a bad experience with your mother. Obviously that should never happen. Personally I have never seen anything like that in any of the hospitals I have worked at.

I wish you could see what good doctors and nurses do on a daily bases.

As for your ascertain that the health service in Ireland is "shocking", if you objectively look at our performance for heart attacks, strokes, critical care, cancer, it is absolutely is not shocking. I have said it before here, I genuinely believe we have some of the best doctors and nurses in the world here. There will always be bad apples.

We also need to look at educating the public and resourcing outpatients far better. At least 50% of the people I see in ED don't need to be in an emergency department. That's not their fault, its a resource and education issue. Maybe from this we can improve that. Also virtual clinics could be massive in reducing outpatient waiting lists. If you have a chronic stable condition no need to sit in a waiting room for 3 hours.

There's a silly idea that goes around that our healthcare system is a disaster, when the truth is very different. Sure, there are issues that need sorting within it and there are some horror stories. But that's replicated in every system.

We could improve things in immediate terms though, by getting people with colds and flu symptoms to stay away from A+E. People like that need to just cop on. Also, unnecessary GP referrals are a large strain on the same dept. Been there myself for a simple complaint that even I knew was treatable with a simple course of antibiotics.

Lastly, get private patients the fuck out of public hospitals. If you want to go private, go to the Beacon or whatever. No need for them to be bed blockers in the public system at all.

BattleCorp · 13-04-2020 12:38PM

easypazz wrote: »

I think the issue is the bank holiday, they won't want to be extending it again.

My guess is around 2 weeks from today they will be hoping to announce what restrictions can be lifted on May 5th.

Gives building sites etc. a chance to get organised.

Most of the restrictions will be extended further. People who can work from home will still be required to work from home. They won't open up the pubs, schools or anything that would gather loads of people together.

They might let some factories, building sites back to work if they can guarantee social distancing in work but it certainly won't be a return to normal.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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