Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 06:00PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Hopefully we've just peaked. RIP to the 14 who lost their lives.

Good to see numbers coming down though.

very doubtful,

we'll see in a few days, how bad the spike in deaths reported tuesday/ wednesday will be

Jim_Hodge · 12-04-2020 06:00PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

That's imbecilic. You know rightly that that is not true. Perhaps you need to put this situation, and the deaths, in perspective and context.

12-04-2020 06:02PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Most other countries would give their right arm for our health service.

At start of crisis we had roughly half the amount of ICU per head population of other eu states?

hardly have to be mensa material to see how we cpuld be become overwhlemed quicker than other EU countries

Ace2007 · 12-04-2020 06:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What kind of twisted logic is that?
The hospital numbers matter more than the deaths???
What planet are you posting from??

You don't get it do you?

The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis

Jim_Hodge · 12-04-2020 06:03PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I think the next two weeks is peak surge

Peak; possibly. Surge; and we've blown it so hopefully not.

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:04PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.

Professor Moriarty · 12-04-2020 06:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

At start of crisis we had roughly half the amount of ICU per head population of other eu states?

hardly have to be mensa material to see how we cpuld be become overwhlemed quicker than other EU countries

You didn't say 'EU' countries. Just countries. I think we should be thankful we don't live in India, Nigeria, Bangladesh etc.

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:05PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

You don't get it do you?

The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis

There's a tendency here to always pick the worst figures, where possible. Deaths down? Lets obsess about hospital admissions. Not that there is substantial evidence that young people are clogging up the hospitals anyway.

Ace2007 · 12-04-2020 06:07PM

FVP3 wrote: »

There's a tendency here to always pick the worst figures, where possible. Deaths down? Lets obsess about hospital admissions. Not that there is substantial evidence that young people are clogging up the hospitals anyway.

66% of hospital admissions have been those under 65.

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:07PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

very doubtful,

we'll see in a few days, how bad the spike in deaths reported tuesday/ wednesday will be

Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?

igCorcaigh · 12-04-2020 06:08PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I wonder does the outcome have anything to do with how much of the virus we are exposed to. Say one person was infected by 20,000 viruses and someone else 50,000 spores.

Yes, very much so.

igCorcaigh · 12-04-2020 06:11PM

FVP3 wrote: »

You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.

Under one, strictly speaking, but the extent that it deviates around one either way has a huge effect on the trajectory of the outbreak. And that's not taking into account imported cases.

caveat emptor · 12-04-2020 06:11PM

Mod-Horsesh!t removed

Jim_Hodge · 12-04-2020 06:13PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?

Not more deaths but the collection and correlation of the deaths at weekends is slower. Look at the deaths reported by day of the week over the past month.

DebDynamite · 12-04-2020 06:13PM

Just Saying wrote: »

Obviously the nursing home clusters are very significant especially in light of the fact that over 50% of our deaths were nursing home residents even though some had been hospitalized prior to their passing.

It would appear that the figure for nursing home clusters is a cumulative figure from the start.
It would be fascinating to know how many of these clusters are still current.

Obviously some of the deaths were from clusters but equally some clusters might have had recoveries.The number with current cases is the key.

If Tony Holohan said 54% of our deaths were nursing home cases, would those nursing home residents who were moved to hospital prior to dying be classed as part of that 54% NH deaths, or would they go down as hospital deaths?

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:15PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Under one, strictly speaking, but the extent that it deviates around one either way has a huge effect on the trajectory of the outbreak. And that's not taking into account imported cases.

Well yes, a R0 of < 1, is the definite end of the epidemic. A R0 of 1 is pretty much there. ( Note I say of the epidemic not the virus, small numbers of people still get infected).

The guy I was addressing didn't seem to get that people recover from this. So he kept adding the numbers cumulatively.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 06:15PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Why are you expecting more deaths on weekdays?

a delay in reporting up the chain, and then being reported to the public the next day

bekker · 12-04-2020 06:16PM

FVP3 wrote: »

You don't think people recover? A R0 of 1 means one person infects one other person. But the first person doesnt stay infected, they either recover or don't survive ( which is much less likely of course). A R0 of 1 isn't really an infectious disease any more.

R0 of 1 means it is beaten. That said any opening of restrictions might ( and very possibly will) increase the the R0. The vaccine is the end game. Locking people up until the vaccine is not possible, but elderly people might have to.

Please provide some evidence (sources) for your assertions, infectivity of those who recover, R0=1 means it's beaten, likelihood of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 06:17PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

a delay in reporting up the chain, and then being reported to the public the next day

Does the same theory go for the hospital/ICU admissions?

Duke of Url · 12-04-2020 06:17PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yes that’s correct. The doom and gloomists will see it completely different for sure. Would you have been happier if today’s figures were the same as yesterday’s?

No.

Nothing about this ****ty disease makes me happy.

Every day many people are fighting for there lives in Ireland due to COVID19.

These people fight and die alone. I won’t celebrate that mate.

12-04-2020 06:17PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

You don't get it do you?

The hospital numbers will dictate how many more people will die, if the hospitals get overrun with young people, and ICU beds full more people will die.

That's why hospital figures are the ones to analysis

I get that you didn't read or understand my post before you replied to it. It had nothing to do with the availability of ICU beds. You can analyse those numbers all you like but you won't change the fact that most of the people killed by this virus are old people.

lbj666 · 12-04-2020 06:18PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

If Tony Holohan said 54% of our deaths were nursing home cases, would those nursing home residents who were moved to hospital prior to dying be classed as part of that 54% NH deaths, or would they go down as hospital deaths?

Fridays presser, he said that infections that originated from NHs but died in hospital were nursing home deaths,

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:18PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Has anybody seen this documentary? It's a bit conspiracy theory / anti Chinese. I know this is not the conspiracy theory thread but seeing more and more stories in the media broaching the subject so revisited when I saw this. I know daily mail is ****e also.Does reference lots of verifiable facts. Main one in my mind is that there are lots of wet markets in China but only one biosafety level 4 lab in China that happens to be in the same place the virus originated. Posting if anybody interested.

Hope none of it is true but I doubt it.

If you hoped it were not true you wouldn't have posted it.

I posted this before:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:19PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

No.

Nothing about this ****ty disease makes me happy.

Every day many people are fighting for there lives in Ireland due to COVID19.

These people fight and die alone. I won’t celebrate that mate.

So.. you are happy that fewer people died today?

caveat emptor · 12-04-2020 06:19PM

FVP3 wrote: »

If you hoped it were not true you wouldn't have posted it.

I posted this before:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

How can you possible know what I hope. Why the fvck who I want something so horrific to be true. jog on.

cloudatlas · 12-04-2020 06:20PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Would you ever cop on to yourself after posting this ****e.:(

It’s true though, I also saw a thread on twitter complaining that the uk media doesn’t give a ****e about reporting on figures in Ireland.

That’s because they don’t give a ****e, Ireland give a ****e because it is politicised. Fintan o’toole’s column in Irish times is uk obsessed for example. Uk would rather report on what is happening in US than what is happening in Ireland.

Blueshoe · 12-04-2020 06:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Most other countries would give their right arm for our health service.

Togo and Gabon

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 06:21PM

bekker wrote: »

Please provide some evidence (sources) for your assertions, infectivity of those who recover, R0=1 means it's beaten, likelihood of a COVID-19 vaccine.

I have to explain simple mathematics? If you don't understand this stuff then please look it up.

bekker · 12-04-2020 06:21PM

DebDynamite wrote: »

If Tony Holohan said 54% of our deaths were nursing home cases, would those nursing home residents who were moved to hospital prior to dying be classed as part of that 54% NH deaths, or would they go down as hospital deaths?

AFAIK depends on where death certificate was issued, if removed to hospital and died there the they would be counted as a hospital death.

igCorcaigh · 12-04-2020 06:22PM

FVP3 wrote: »

If you hoped it were not true you wouldn't have posted it.

I posted this before:

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html

Yeah, is it not still possible though that the virus did exist in a lab without being engineered?

I just don't know enough about it.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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