Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Danno · 12-04-2020 05:41PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Bad news from down the page in that link. Covid-19 is a stealth virus.

Covid-19 appears to be more contagious than initially thought. And more people than expected are carrying it without showing symptoms.

The US Centres for Disease Control (CDC) has published a report suggesting each Covid-19 carrier will likely infect five or six other people.

And the British Medical Journal has just published a study based on experience in Italy suggesting some 78 per cent of people with Covid-19 show no symptoms.

Together, these elements make the virus especially hard to contain. It also means a much higher level of vaccination would be needed before it can be choked.

About 85 per cent of any given population will have to have resistance before they can begin to go about 'normally', without offering a chance for the virus to spread.

The R0 is likely to be 5.7 and if 85% of the population needs to be immunized/infected, achieving the so called 'Herd Immunity' is that much more difficult to obtain.

This virus keeps throwing up nasty surprises.

If what you quoted is true, then this is actually good news meaning that herd immunity is closer than we think.

davemckenna25 · 12-04-2020 05:41PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The numbers really mean nothing until the backlog is cleared. Realistically there’s probably 2/3 thousand resolved cases here. We simply cannot trust the new numbers because of how long ago the tests were taken.

The backlog of testing being done by the German labs is due to be cleared by the end of the coming week. Was reported on yesterday.

Renjit · 12-04-2020 05:42PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I wonder does the outcome have anything to do with how much of the virus we are exposed to. Say one person was infected by 20,000 viruses and someone else 50,000 spores.

Well...ok.

pjohnson · 12-04-2020 05:42PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

Its hurting you badly anyway.

bekker · 12-04-2020 05:43PM

Yes, with the proviso that it may prove to have deleterious lung function effects for many, if not all, who suffer from more than a mild infection.

If that proves to be the case, the longer term social and economic consequences could be quite serious.

cf wakka12 #1980

davemckenna25 · 12-04-2020 05:43PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

I don't think so, if we had been hitting those numbers it would have a greater chance of killing those on here....... basic maths..

Just Saying · 12-04-2020 05:43PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Day one of the German analysis amounted to 15,000 out of 29,000 tests, so must be nearly all analysed now, or at least by tomorrow.

The first German results started coming back on Friday April 3rd and they were averaging 1500/2000 results per day...I'd say it will be Wed/Thursday before they are all back.

Mam of 4 · 12-04-2020 05:44PM

anewme wrote: »

Well I will tell you one thing.

The old people in the nursing home’s fighting this have far more grit, respect and bravery than some of the gutless cowards on here.

Quoting this Anewme in case anyone missed it the first time .

Well said .

Seamai · 12-04-2020 05:44PM

mariaalice wrote: »

They had a man aged 45 with no underlying health conditions on the news he was from Cork he had to be put in an induced coma because of Covid 19. Maybe this Will get the message across that it is not just old people.

Yes, it was encouraging to see that guy recovered but also a reminder to anyone who thinks that they might be immune because of age or being free from underlying conditions.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 05:44PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249386740340731904?s=19

https://twitter.com/datavizireland/status/1249387282295029760?s=19

Hospitalisation and ICU percentages, this shows that the measures taken prior to implementing the current restrictions are working, I'd expect to see the current restrictions reflected more towards the end of this week in the numbers. ICU numbers are very steady.

A lot of positives alright.

We could be like UK, Spain, Italy or New York but its not looking likely in Eire.

JP Liz V1 · 12-04-2020 05:45PM

gmisk wrote: »

There has been a delay in them coming back so they are being added in dribs and drabs, there were some added yesterday as well.

Do we know when the tests sent to Germany were taken?

citysights · 12-04-2020 05:45PM

pc7 wrote: »

Virgin Media news showed a lovely clip of a 65 year old coming home recovered and RTÉ had a 45 year old who was in an induced coma for 9 days fully recovered. They are reporting some good news stories.

Well that is brilliant, those are the positive stories that people need to hear, that people are getting better. The elderly are very fearful and negative stories are very upsetting for them. We need to hear about these recoveries because it may stop people worrying that they are going to be next. That is much better for their mental health rather than hearing negativity all the time. They should be relaxing at home, making the best of things and not to be feeling afraid. I hope they keep showing the recoveries.

Away With The Fairies · 12-04-2020 05:47PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

I heard lack of empathy is an underlying condition.

stephenjmcd · 12-04-2020 05:47PM

easypazz wrote: »

A lot of positives alright.

We could be like UK, Spain, Italy or New York but its not looking likely in Eire.

Lots of positives but no time for complacency either, we have to keep at this for the next 3 weeks.

Like I've said before I have family that work in dublins major hospitals, yes they said they're busy and with staff having to isolate the workload is increasing but the numbers of patients are still manageable when most thought our hospitals would have crumbled by now.

JP Liz V1 · 12-04-2020 05:48PM

Is Matt Damon isolating lockdown here in Ireland?

boardise · 12-04-2020 05:50PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Eire eh..... Your mask is slipping further now.

Not a surgical mask I hope.

12-04-2020 05:51PM

easypazz wrote: »

A lot of positives alright.

We could be like UK, Spain, Italy or New York but its not looking likely in Eire.

We are seemingly doing ok,but its of little comfort to those who've died or their families,

they died n many cases alone gasping for air,they couldnt have proper funerals or send off,indeed many people have had to greive alone in isolation,

there is no winning position for anyone here....little bit of perspective never geos astray

12-04-2020 05:51PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

The trust is 66% of those need hospital care are under 65 - that's fact.

It's the hospital numbers that really only matters nothing else.

What kind of twisted logic is that?
The hospital numbers matter more than the deaths???
What planet are you posting from??

Just Saying · 12-04-2020 05:51PM

expectationlost wrote: »

where are all these new cases occuring? https://twitter.com/andyazi/status/1248209967611555840 https://twitter.com/TimoneyKevin/status/1248621741007458306

Obviously the nursing home clusters are very significant especially in light of the fact that over 50% of our deaths were nursing home residents even though some had been hospitalized prior to their passing.

It would appear that the figure for nursing home clusters is a cumulative figure from the start.
It would be fascinating to know how many of these clusters are still current.

Obviously some of the deaths were from clusters but equally some clusters might have had recoveries.The number with current cases is the key.

12-04-2020 05:51PM

easypazz wrote: »

Its obviously killing quite a few on here that we are not hitting 60 and 80 deaths a day

You couldn't care any less if you tried. One death is too many. I recommend you take a break from the internet and get some fresh air.

easypazz · 12-04-2020 05:51PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Lots of positives but no time for complacency either, we have to keep at this for the next 3 weeks.

Like I've said before I have family that work in dublins major hospitals, yes they said they're busy and with staff having to isolate the workload is increasing but the numbers of patients are still manageable when most thought our hospitals would have crumbled by now.

We could be a lot worse but thankfully seem to have avoided the worst of this.

smelly sock · 12-04-2020 05:54PM

Hopefully we've just peaked. RIP to the 14 who lost their lives.

Good to see numbers coming down though.

BorneTobyWilde · 12-04-2020 05:56PM

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 05:56PM

citysights wrote: »

Best question ever well said. Not everyone obviously but some people seem to have a death obsession here, guilting everyone else into nearly breathing. All over some media as well ffs. When do we ever hear the good news that people have actually recovered, many people. No It’s all about lock downs, dark days, pure doom and gloom, even talking at the start of this about the erection of temporary morgues. Doom merchants. Some of them would nearly have the grave dug for you. No wonder people are terrified. It’s just not right.

Oh absolutely, the desire to see more bad news is clear, in some of the posters.

FVP3 · 12-04-2020 05:57PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

And there are people here who want to lockdown more. I think if deaths stay low we should think about opening restrictions in a few weeks.

JP Liz V1 · 12-04-2020 05:57PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

I think the next two weeks is peak surge

ShamoBuc · 12-04-2020 05:57PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

No they wouldn't.

12-04-2020 05:58PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

If any country had the daily new cases we have, and the daily deaths we have they'd be open for business in a flash. So it begs the question what do we need to see for us to reopen, as I believe we could see 350 new cases a day for next 20 years, so where does it end

Most other countries have much better healthcare service than us

We have to work harder because we will become overwhelmed quicker

stephenjmcd · 12-04-2020 05:59PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

I think the next two weeks is peak surge

The whole point of implementing the restrictions early is that there isnt a visible surge.
This was said at one of the press conferences last week when the graphs were produced.

The flattening of the curve is to push the cases out over a longer period of time

Professor Moriarty · 12-04-2020 05:59PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Most other countries have much better healthcare service than us

We have to work harder because we will become overwhelmed quicker

Most other countries would give their right arm for our health service.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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