Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Humilde · 12-04-2020 03:16PM

What needs to start happening already is that China must now allow an independent international alliance of scientists to have a continuous presence in that country with access to all areas of their health system. Until this happens, even if we do get a vaccine, we will never know what new bug from some wet market is lurking around the corner.

Doctors room ghost · 12-04-2020 03:17PM

rosiem wrote: »

To be fair one of them should have explained the running joke that she refers to her husband as the painter/gardener but I think you are overly offended by a LLS segment. I found Amy discussing her worries having her Dad in a nursing home very interesting she also tried to keep positive and upbeat which I think most people appreciate.

That’s my bad but if it was a joke it went straight over my head and I probably wouldn’t get her sense of humour.she said the painter and gardener and no more was said about it so apologies for me taking it up wrong.

rosiem · 12-04-2020 03:18PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

FFS.

7500 Irish lab cases.
1000 German lab cases.

25,000-30,000 of a backlog to be processed.

Assuming a 10% positive rate thats 2500-3000 more positives.

Thats a total of 11000 - 11500 positives. Holahan and Nolan said they expect to only find half of cases.

So multiply by two we currently have 22 000 cases at a minimum.

With an R0 of 1. That means 22000 becomes 44000 in about 2 weeks time. And by may 5th may it will likely be 50000 cases in reality.

Thats before we ease restrictions. If we ease restrictions the R0 will likely jump hugely.

There's no stopping this until a vaccine.

All of these stats are not mine - they're government figures.

Why are you deliberately mis using the figures to create a worst case scenario you are so wrong in your above scenario you really need to sit down at look at the numbers correctly and stop just trying to spread doom and gloom. It seems you are revelling in misery very strange outlook to have I can only assume you are a miserable person determined to drag others down with you.

Happy Easter hope some chocolate helps your mood

Micky 32 · 12-04-2020 03:18PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

..

If you had any more edges, you'd be a circle

Maybe you should educate yourself a little and realise circles don’t have edges, stop talking complete utter nonsense.

12-04-2020 03:23PM

I see Tim Brooke-Taylor, of Goodies fame, has died of coronavirus, r.i.p.

Doctors room ghost · 12-04-2020 03:24PM

easypazz wrote: »

I didn't see it but I didn't need it explained to me that the gardener wasn't really in the hall at 10pm on a Friday night.

Cheers for that from the person advising people to go out tomorrow to buy half price Easter eggs and everyone being advised to remain at home unless the trip is essential.That’s great advice you are dispensing.
That segment of the show you mention was also pre recorded so you’re theory on the 10pm thing is also wrong.
Many thanks and happy Easter

Nermal · 12-04-2020 03:24PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The policy can only change if the number of new cases and deaths consistently fall for at least a week, and ideally a fortnight, otherwise the resultant spike on a return to normality would require a second lockdown.

Not acceptable. The level of lockdown required to achieve long-term stabilisation of cases/deaths isn’t sustainable.

wakka12 · 12-04-2020 03:28PM

https://nltimes.nl/2020/04/11/ten-straight-drops-covid-19-hospitalizations-coronavirus-deaths-near-2650

Number of people hospitalised with COVID has droppped or a tenth day straight in the Netherlands, from a peak of 500 admissions 10 days ago to just under 70 new hospitalisations today.

Quantum Erasure · 12-04-2020 03:30PM

Do they even do half price easter eggs any more?

duffman13 · 12-04-2020 03:33PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Limited supply of proprofol, fentanyl and noradrenaline, all used for patients on ventilators, reported in the UK today.

Where are you seeing that? All of that stock is readily available in Ireland through both wholesalers? I would be very surprised if there was a supply issue on them in the UK unless their numbers are complete pie in the sky

igCorcaigh · 12-04-2020 03:34PM

For anyone here interested in maths or computer science, John Conway (of Game of Life fame) has died of COVID19.

RIP.

weldoninhio · 12-04-2020 03:34PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Never knew that about Michael D.

Sums up the rest of your ranting rubbish.

You never heard the rumours about his “aide”?? It’s well known at this stage.

Gynoid · 12-04-2020 03:36PM

All the answers, all the way from the uber-pragmatic verging-on-the-psychopathic 'let us open up and take the deaths' answers to the nervous 'let us hunker down until the vaccine' answers, are different personalities trying to get the tiny human mind around the fact that in a handful of months we have had to grasp that a novel virus has been loosed upon the species which is increasing death rates whetever it goes because it is very challenging to a percentage of our elderly and less elderly people with fairly common underlying conditions, anything from hypertension to diabetes.

It is natural that people are lashing around for answers. It is a complete freaking head wreck that we have ended up here. A sci fi dystopian connundrum. There have already been so many terrible stories from far flung lands.

Like almost everyone else, I do not know the answer to how it pans out.

The "answer" I really loathe though, is the one that the people who died or will die would have ended up dead soon enough anyway. There is something very dark in that kind of thinking.

Wolf359f · 12-04-2020 03:38PM

jackboy wrote: »

Testing and contract tracing will not slow down the virus. ICU capacity will help but will quickly get overwhelmed and there is a high death rate in ICU. We need a better plan than easing restrictions in a few weeks time because that won’t work.

Testing and contact tracing is there for slowing down the spread. Otherwise they wouldn't bother or waste resources on it.
If an infected person gets a bus to work, later he develops symptoms, rings up, gets tested and a positive result comes back. They beging contact tracing and anyone in the bus or workplace begins to self quarantine. By then self quaranting, it slows the spread.

Now, this only works with testing and getting results back within 48hrs, what the government is aiming for. This means they can contact the close contacts of the positive case before they would begin showing symptoms or being infections.

As this country has never had to do mass testing or tracing ever before, it's not something they can ramp up over night.
It will be used as one of many tools to keep the spread of the virus as low as we can as they begin to ease restrictions.
Like the people, we never had to keep to social distancing, coughing into out shoulder, constant washing hands etc... But it's again another tool we will all be using when restrictions ease.

Count Dooku · 12-04-2020 03:38PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

What's his sexuality got to do with it?

Gives +50 to protection from criticism

Wolf359f · 12-04-2020 03:40PM

duffman13 wrote: »

Where are you seeing that? All of that stock is readily available in Ireland through both wholesalers? I would be very surprised if there was a supply issue on them in the UK unless their numbers are complete pie in the sky

I thought it was just the brands they use that were running low. Like XYZ brand they use for paracetamol was running low, but of course there's another brand they could use.
I think it's just a headline grabber. The media lately have been extremely poor reporting.

podgeandrodge · 12-04-2020 03:40PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

No he didn’t, he never existed IMO.

Lundstram wrote: »

An edgy athiest, just what we need. :rolleyes:

He definitely existed. I'm just not sure about the water and wine thing yet though.

wakka12 · 12-04-2020 03:41PM

Big drop in UK deaths, 737 today. The last few days have all been 850+ to nearly 1000. Have they reached a peak perhaps? New case numbers remain very high still though

Away With The Fairies · 12-04-2020 03:42PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Its quite simple.

Had we locked down properly from the start, we'd be able to ease restrictions every so often for a couple of weeks.

That's impossible now. Shambolic lockdown, testing and contact tracing means lockdown until vaccine.

Was there talk of the HSE releasing an app? Would an app even help at this stage?

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 03:42PM

kwestfan08 wrote: »

With those figures you are assuming that no one since the outbreak started has either gotten better or died from the virus. Cases that started 4-5 weeks ago the vast majority will have recovered so they cannot still be infecting people.

We probably have about 11-11500 confirmed cases including german cases and according to Nolan its more likely twice that. Even allowing for some cured we still have well over 10000 open cases. With an R0 of 1 that means a doubling every couple of weeks.

When you lift restrictions R0 goes up hugely.

So no real evidence we've got on top of the problem.

How anyone can say testing hasn't been a shambles is beyond me.

jackboy · 12-04-2020 03:44PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Testing and contact tracing is there for slowing down the spread. Otherwise they wouldn't bother or waste resources on it.
If an infected person gets a bus to work, later he develops symptoms, rings up, gets tested and a positive result comes back. They beging contact tracing and anyone in the bus or workplace begins to self quarantine. By then self quaranting, it slows the spread.

Now, this only works with testing and getting results back within 48hrs, what the government is aiming for. This means they can contact the close contacts of the positive case before they would begin showing symptoms or being infections.

As this country has never had to do mass testing or tracing ever before, it's not something they can ramp up over night.
It will be used as one of many tools to keep the spread of the virus as low as we can as they begin to ease restrictions.
Like the people, we never had to keep to social distancing, coughing into out shoulder, constant washing hands etc... But it's again another tool we will all be using when restrictions ease.

That will only work on top of fairly severe restrictions. If restrictions are eased none of that will significantly slow down the virus. The current plan will not work.

igCorcaigh · 12-04-2020 03:45PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

In scientific terms how does covid 19 look different than other corona virus, are they shaped differently or contain a specific amount of something.I know they look at DNA, magnify it and can see various virus types present, what's does covid 19 look like

Spherical with spikes coming out, like those on a crown (hence, corona). Inside the sphere, there is RNA which encodes the genetic information.

Cork Boy 53 · 12-04-2020 03:47PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Big drop in UK deaths, 737 today. The last few days have all been 850+ to nearly 1000. Have they reached a peak perhaps? New case numbers remain very high still though

The reported death rates have dropped to some extent over the last few weekends only to surge again a few days later. Far too early to even suggest the UK is anywhere near its peak.

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 03:48PM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Was there talk of the HSE releasing an app? Would an app even help at this stage?

Apple/Google are working on an app based off bluetooth.

I can just see clowns and teenagers downloading the app and saying they are cv positive for the craic.

briany · 12-04-2020 03:50PM

Gynoid wrote: »

The "answer" I really loathe though, is the one that the people who died or will die would have ended up dead soon enough anyway. There is something very dark in that kind of thinking.

And I bet the people saying that are almost literally wrapping their own parents or grandparents (if any still living) in cotton wool. Let the virus take its course is a grand strategy when it doesn't take anyone you know or care for...

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 12-04-2020 03:50PM

Gynoid wrote: »

All the answers, all the way from the uber-pragmatic verging-on-the-psychopathic 'let us open up and take the deaths' answers to the nervous 'let us hunker down until the vaccine' answers, are different personalities trying to get the tiny human mind around the fact that in a handful of months we have had to grasp that a novel virus has been loosed upon the species which is increasing death rates whetever it goes because it is very challenging to a percentage of our elderly and less elderly people with fairly common underlying conditions, anything from hypertension to diabetes.

It is natural that people are lashing around for answers. It is a complete freaking head wreck that we have ended up here. A sci fi dystopian connundrum. There have already been so many terrible stories from far flung lands.

Like almost everyone else, I do not know the answer to how it pans out.

The "answer" I really loathe though, is the one that the people who died or will die would have ended up dead soon enough anyway. There is something very dark in that kind of thinking.

Oh, those people are always around. The kind of people who cheerfully tell me re: my advanced cancer “Sure we all die sometimes!” or “I could hit by a bus tomorrow”. “Hahahahahaha” says I and then I knee them in the flaps.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 12-04-2020 03:51PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

There may never be a vaccine, this could be similar to a common cold issue. Except with worse effect

There’s no common cold vaccine, IMO, because there’s no real impetus to develop one. Like, colds can be very unpleasant but they are generally mild and self-limiting. Even the very worst colds of my life, I was well capable of going to school/going to college/working. I think they barely even kill elderly people or immunosuppressed people. I’ve never had the flu that I know of, but apparently colds are way less exhausting than flus. So with all that in mind and considering the expense involved in vaccine development, I can see why they never bothered for the common cold. It’s not necessarily that a vaccine can’t be found. It just not a very glamorous area of research.

tobefrank321 · 12-04-2020 03:52PM

rosiem wrote: »

Why are you deliberately mis using the figures to create a worst case scenario you are so wrong in your above scenario you really need to sit down at look at the numbers correctly and stop just trying to spread doom and gloom. It seems you are revelling in misery very strange outlook to have I can only assume you are a miserable person determined to drag others down with you.

Happy Easter hope some chocolate helps your mood

I'm trying to get the reality across to people who still have their head in the sand.

Wolf359f · 12-04-2020 03:53PM

jackboy wrote: »

That will only work on top of fairly severe restrictions. If restrictions are eased none of that will significantly slow down the virus. The current plan will not work.

Well I don't mean come may 5th everything will open back up.
More then likely it will be non essential workers allowed back to work, with gyms, pubs, school closed.

Places opening would have to keep social distancing in place like supermarkets. Offices would have to have some arrangement. Could be like a limited number of staff in the office per day and anywork that can be done at home, does be.
With the elderly and vulnerable still cocooning, hospital, ICU and deaths should remain low as only the young and fit would be exposed to the virus (obviously some young and healthy will still end up in the ICU and die)

End game is get to a stage where the hospitals can cope with new cases and the economy can slowly open. It's going to be a very hard act to balance.

gabeeg · 12-04-2020 03:53PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Big drop in UK deaths, 737 today. The last few days have all been 850+ to nearly 1000. Have they reached a peak perhaps? New case numbers remain very high still though

Unfortunately that's just a consequence of it being a Sunday.
Their numbers will likely be similar tomorrow too, before rocketing up again on Tuesday.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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