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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

18990929495331

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,383 ✭✭✭S.M.B.


    Enzokk wrote: »
    So unless the UK starts testing in the hospital and care homes, not just patients but staff, I fear it is just an exercise to manage the damage or hide behind the truth.
    Start? They have been testing hospital staff for a while. Maybe not at the level or speed they need to unfortunately though.

    Not 100% what level of testing is provided at care homes right now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    A few more positive signs from the latest graphs:

    Reported cases seem to be flattening:
    8bc3de79-ca72-40af-bbd2-c189f4ea0249.png

    Hospital beds seem to be flattening:
    a9ee264c-d151-4494-80a1-c1ed74a5df60.png

    This means we should see deaths also flattening soon. All positive signs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    S.M.B. wrote: »
    Start? They have been testing hospital staff for a while. Maybe not at the level or speed they need to unfortunately though.

    Not 100% what level of testing is provided at care homes right now.

    Look at the graph in the post below yours, it shows how many NHS staff they were testing were coming reporting as positive as part of Pillar 2. You will note as well that there was some cases of key staff done under Pillar 1 before. So yesterday the number of NHS staff testing positive is going up. I expect this to continue for the coming week as they ramp up the number of tests for NHS staff. My guess is that will be the next crises the government will face up to.

    A few more positive signs from the latest graphs:

    Reported cases seem to be flattening:
    8bc3de79-ca72-40af-bbd2-c189f4ea0249.png

    Hospital beds seem to be flattening:
    a9ee264c-d151-4494-80a1-c1ed74a5df60.png

    This means we should see deaths also flattening soon. All positive signs.


    Did you read the conditions on the graphs for the hospital beds? Stats for 9 April is incomplete as 9 hospitals didn't return numbers and thus it is not reliable. Garbage in and garbage out. One of the hospitals that didn't report was the new Nightingale hospital as well.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Another at least 5 NHS staff passed away,

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1249078912467992577?s=20

    At least it is interesting to see the deception is still strong with the Tories,

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1249006439038935043?s=20

    You look at the tweet from Starmer and tell me where he blamed the NHS or are attacking them. They must think because he is saying it is insulting to say staff is wasting PPE he is attacking them, not the person who actually said that there is wastage of PPE and that is one of the causes of the shortage for staff. Some real upstanding people in parliament who know the score and will try everything to shift the blame off themselves for this mess.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Another at least 5 NHS staff passed away,

    https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1249078912467992577?s=20

    At least it is interesting to see the deception is still strong with the Tories,

    https://twitter.com/lucyallan/status/1249006439038935043?s=20

    You look at the tweet from Starmer and tell me where he blamed the NHS or are attacking them. They must think because he is saying it is insulting to say staff is wasting PPE he is attacking them, not the person who actually said that there is wastage of PPE and that is one of the causes of the shortage for staff. Some real upstanding people in parliament who know the score and will try everything to shift the blame off themselves for this mess.

    From Ms Allan's Wiki page:

    In December 2015 Allan posted on Facebook an email she said she received from a constituent; the email was edited and ended with the words "unless you die". Allan later acknowledged that she had added those words to the email (saying she had taken them from a different email) – leading to accusations of her faking a death threat.

    And:

    In December 2015 Allan was accused of bullying members of staff, and leaving a series of voicemail messages to a sick employee allegedly including a threat of dismissal. On 21 December 2015, a statement about the allegations was published on Allan's website but deleted later in the day.

    And:

    In April 2016 Allan used Facebook to say: "Hard-working people in Telford don't get why privileged trainee doctors, on course to earn £100,000 plus, will hold NHS to ransom and deprive ordinary people of emergency care. I don't get it either."

    Yup, she's definitely a Tory.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Really desperate efforts to deflect here from Hancock first of all and now a brace of tory backbenchers. Even by usual standards this is pitiful stuff.

    https://twitter.com/Helen_Whately/status/1249005122119700481?s=20


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Really desperate efforts to deflect here from Hancock first of all and now a brace of tory backbenchers. Even by usual standards this is pitiful stuff.

    https://twitter.com/Helen_Whately/status/1249005122119700481?s=20

    Great to see Starmer getting stuck in.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Great to see Starmer getting stuck in.

    Yeah. And it's a good balance between hard condemnation and measured restraint. Its just so demonstrably right that those tories just make fools of themselves trying to defend Hancocks outrageous comment. People are dying here ffs.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Did you read the conditions on the graphs for the hospital beds? Stats for 9 April is incomplete as 9 hospitals didn't return numbers and thus it is not reliable. Garbage in and garbage out. One of the hospitals that didn't report was the new Nightingale hospital as well.

    Nobody is admitted to the Excel / Nightingale hospital from off the street. They are transferred from other hospitals once already on ventilation as far as I understood it so would already be in the stats.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Yeah. And it's a good balance between hard condemnation and measured restraint. Its just so demonstrably right that those tories just make fools of themselves trying to defend Hancocks outrageous comment. People are dying here ffs.

    I can only imagine Corbyn's watery response. If there was one.


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  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,912 Mod ✭✭✭✭devnull


    A few more positive signs from the latest graphs:

    Reported cases seem to be flattening:
    8bc3de79-ca72-40af-bbd2-c189f4ea0249.png

    Hospital beds seem to be flattening:
    a9ee264c-d151-4494-80a1-c1ed74a5df60.png

    This means we should see deaths also flattening soon. All positive signs.
    The death numbers will likely be vastly under reported for the next few days, as many trusts will treat Good Friday and Easter Monday the same as they treat weekends and will not report deaths until the next working day - this is why reporting covering each weekend day has been way lower than the weekdays before it. No doubt people will point to this as being a sign things are easing when it isn't.

    It's also likely that Wednesday's data will also be vastly over-reported and probably by some distance the biggest figures so far to compensate for this as it will feature many deaths over the 4 day Easter Period. The next real interesting day of data will be next Thursday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    I can only imagine Corbyn's watery response. If there was one.

    Dunno tbh but its a slam dunk really. If labour cant become indisputably the party of the nhs afain after this, they'll be at nothing i reckon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 970 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    I don't know if you have seen this yet but it certainly gives a clear view about how things are at the coal face of fighting this virus.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

    I cannot imagine how I would react being in this situation


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    bob mcbob wrote: »
    I don't know if you have seen this yet but it certainly gives a clear view about how things are at the coal face of fighting this virus.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

    I cannot imagine how I would react being in this situation

    Its truly heart rending. And seeing those coffins being buried in the bronx yesterday was the single most harrowing image I've seen in this whole thing. That looked like something from an actual war.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,729 ✭✭✭AllForIt


    devnull wrote: »
    Had to laugh at the bit where Patel said she's not been presenting the conferences as she's been working very hard non stop in the Home Office all day 7 days a week before correcting herself to 3 days a week.

    What she said is that she has been working 7 days a week, and 3 days a week in the Home Office, meaning literally physically 3 days in the Home Office building, cuz social distancing prolly.

    How you took her to mean she only worked 3 days a week is what is laughable. Laughing at something you misunderstood makes you look desperate for a cheap dig.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,797 ✭✭✭Dave0301


    AllForIt wrote: »
    What she said is that she has been working 7 days a week, and 3 days a week in the Home Office, meaning literally physically 3 days in the Home Office building, cuz social distancing prolly.

    How you took her to mean she only worked 3 days a week is what is laughable. Laughing at something you misunderstood makes you look desperate for a cheap dig.

    To be fair, it was difficult to follow any of the figures she mentioned in her briefing :pac:

    https://twitter.com/aliMMA/status/1249103647419531265


  • Posts: 5,557 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The queen of that country said in her easter message that "this virus will not overcome us" ok so that means everything is ok.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    The miscellaneous people being chatted to from the BBC breakfast sofa this morning are not feeling sorry about having a go at Patel for her non apology.

    Im guessing she won't be rolled out to host another press conference anytime soon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    robinph wrote: »
    Nobody is admitted to the Excel / Nightingale hospital from off the street. They are transferred from other hospitals once already on ventilation as far as I understood it so would already be in the stats.


    Yes, but it is a patient taking up a hospital bed in the system due to the virus. If the hospital where the patient is transferred from doesn't use the bed left vacant for a coronavirus case then it looks like there are fewer beds being used and it looks like a plateau is being reached. But if the new admission is related then the numbers are not an accurate reflection.

    And it also doesn't account for the other 8 hospitals not returning numbers. Who knows how many beds there were in those as it is not specified which hospitals or areas they are but looking at the graphs and the drop in beds in use in London it is safe to assume that is where they are from. It could be that two NHS trusts didn't return their numbers on the day for whatever reason.

    It does call into question the other dip for the Midlands on the 2nd April whether there was some hospitals not reporting that day. If you look at the graph the dip is followed by a big spike but if you ignore that number then it does just seem like a small increase was most likely the case on that day.

    It will be interesting to see if they adjust the numbers later next week or if they keep them as is, that should give us an idea if what they are actually doing with those COBRA graphs.

    I can only imagine Corbyn's watery response. If there was one.

    I think much like Corbyn's time as leader the words would have been fine if you only read it or didn't know it was from him, but if he had to deliver them then the substance would have fallen away.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Enzokk wrote: »

    It will be interesting to see if they adjust the numbers later next week or if they keep them as is, that should give us an idea if what they are actually doing with those COBRA graphs.
    I think they updated the charts on subsequent days. There was a day last week where two regions had big drops then spikes shown on one of them but the lines seem to be smoothed out for one of the regions now.

    Wouldn't surprise me if they haven't got someone appointed to the "add up some numbers and email it to No 10" job role for the Nightingale hospital yet or didn't consider it top of the priority list of roles to fill.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    bob mcbob wrote: »
    I don't know if you have seen this yet but it certainly gives a clear view about how things are at the coal face of fighting this virus.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

    I cannot imagine how I would react being in this situation


    Thank you for the link, it is grim reading. The problem I see is that these deaths will not be recorded as related to the virus. You wonder how many more deaths there are around the world that is not being counted. I guess we will have to wait for a few years to see how this year compares to a year without the virus and see what the amount of deaths were like before and after the virus and try to make determination and see how many deaths more than the average there was.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    robinph wrote: »
    I think they updated the charts on subsequent days. There was a day last week where two regions had big drops then spikes shown on one of them but the lines seem to be smoothed out for one of the regions now.

    Wouldn't surprise me if they haven't got someone appointed to the "add up some numbers and email it to No 10" job role for the Nightingale hospital yet or didn't consider it top of the priority list of roles to fill.


    We will see if the graph is updated subsequently. As for reporting, I agree it could be that the hospital is new but the hospital is being run by the Bart's NHS Trust and they run 5 other hospitals so its not like you have a totally new administration in charge not knowing the system. If anything it is just adding the numbers from the Nightingale Hospital to the others they have under their administration and the admin at the hospital should have those numbers on hand you would guess.

    But I don't think we understand the pressures on the NHS right now so I would not be surprised if hospitals are overwhelmed and not returning the correct numbers as it is not the priority they would have.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Alok Sharma, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, is on Andrew Marr. Don't worry people of Brittain, many of you will die but the government followed scientific advice and he is very sorry for those that will die. He wants people to know he is very sorry that people has died. He has said that 4 or 5 times now, so he is very sorry people has died.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Alok Sharma, Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, is on Andrew Marr. Don't worry people of Brittain, many of you will die but the government followed scientific advice and he is very sorry for those that will die. He wants people to know he is very sorry that people has died. He has said that 4 or 5 times now, so he is very sorry people has died.

    I'm baffled. Is this who the tories decided to send out this morning to repair the damage done by patel? Have they nothing else? He never actually answered a direct question and heard him on sky earlier and it was the same. This is an unprecedented situation, he kept repeating. As if, like what do you seriously expect us to do?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Here is some of the interview with Alok Sharma this morning,

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1249261206428364802?s=20

    And here is a twitter thread about some numbers between the UK and Ireland. Some may find this disturbing and viewer discretion is advised.

    https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20

    Here is all of the posts in one convenient location,

    Thread reader


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Here is some of the interview with Alok Sharma this morning,

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1249261206428364802?s=20

    And here is a twitter thread about some numbers between the UK and Ireland. Some may find this disturbing and viewer discretion is advised.

    https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20

    Here is all of the posts in one convenient location,

    Thread reader

    Excellent. *Crickets* is so true.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Here is some of the interview with Alok Sharma this morning,

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1249261206428364802?s=20

    And here is a twitter thread about some numbers between the UK and Ireland. Some may find this disturbing and viewer discretion is advised.

    https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20

    Here is all of the posts in one convenient location,

    Thread reader

    That makes for hard reading but it is an excellent summation of most of the key points. The uk media are the ones that need to be asking these key questions and it looks like they might finally be getting away from how is boris obsession to start asking them.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Here is some of the interview with Alok Sharma this morning,

    https://twitter.com/Femi_Sorry/status/1249261206428364802?s=20

    And here is a twitter thread about some numbers between the UK and Ireland. Some may find this disturbing and viewer discretion is advised.

    https://twitter.com/laineydoyle/status/1249127908876128259?s=20

    Here is all of the posts in one convenient location,

    Thread reader


    Elaine Doyle is another person who doesn't realise that we can't simply just compare the numbers because Ireland is behind the UK in the pandemic. I stopped reading the thread as soon as the inaccurate comparisons in ratios started. Similar to what Professor Moriarty offered here a few days ago.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,797 ✭✭✭Dave0301


    Lainey Doyle is another person who doesn't realise that we can't simply just compare the numbers because Ireland is behind the UK in the pandemic. I stopped reading the thread as soon as the inaccurate comparisons in ratios started. Similar to what Professor Moriarty offered here a few days ago.

    You do realise that in the months ahead when there is a full reckoning of how the UK deaths (including numbers in non-hospital settings) compare to other European countries that you won't be able to use this excuse to defend the steps taken by the UK government?

    They are already trending to be the worst hit European country without those extra deaths included.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Dave0301 wrote: »
    You do realise that in the months ahead when there is a full reckoning of how the UK deaths (including numbers in non-hospital settings) compare to other European countries that you won't be able to use this excuse to defend the steps taken by the UK government?
    They are already trending to be the worst hit European country without those extra deaths included.

    The Wellcome Trust is a large organisation that studies epidemics and advises the UK government. It's head, Sir Jeremy Farrar, said on the Marr Show:

    "And yes, the UK is likely to be certainly one of the worst, if not the worst affected country in Europe."


This discussion has been closed.
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