CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

cloudatlas · 10-04-2020 10:48AM

tigger123 wrote: »

Irish Times is saying at least another 2 weeks.

It’s gotta be longer. I wish they’d stop talking to us like we’re toddlers. Just a little longer. We know.

cj maxx · 10-04-2020 10:48AM

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

A west Cork TV presenter now living in Dublin, it’s still on her story now.

Reply to her how, when the pandemic is over and the death toll is counted, you will make sure to share that the gob****e didn't follow guidelines etc . And how this gonna look bad for her

owlbethere · 10-04-2020 10:48AM

I'm not long after reading a post from Facebook saying something like:

I'm so mad at people...going away on holidays.... Seeing cars built up on the N11...

Something like that.

Why automatically jump to the conclusion that the build up of cars is all down to drivers going away on holidays to their holiday homes. There's still a lot allowed to go on in the country like people allowed to go to work like factories, shops, essential services, banking, vets, Animal foods, people are allowed to travel outside of 2km to do an essential/food/grocery shop.

Do some people want everyone holding down a job to give it up? Do they want everyone and their families to starve at home? Or maybe let people walk for miles and miles to get to their jobs and to buy some groceries.

flanna01 · 10-04-2020 10:51AM

cj maxx wrote: »

Reply to her how, when the pandemic is over and the death toll is counted, you will make sure to share that the gob****e didn't follow guidelines etc . And how this gonna look bad for her

Name & Shame...

is_that_so · 10-04-2020 10:51AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

It’s gotta be longer. I wish they’d stop talking to us like we’re toddlers. Just a little longer. We know.

Some people don't process such information as brilliantly as you clearly do.

Inquitus · 10-04-2020 10:52AM

Less hopeful news from study:

5m ago
11:44
The principle of “herd immunity”, at one stage touted by the UK government as a possible solution to the coronavirus outbreak, has taken an apparent blow after a study in Austria found less than 1% of the population is infected with coronavirus.

The first such study in continental Europe, led by pollster SORA which is known for projecting election results, aimed to provide a clearer picture of the total number of infections, given gaps in testing, Reuters reports.

“Based on this study, we believe that 0.33% of the population in Austria was acutely infected in early April,” SORA co-founder Christoph Hofinger told a news conference. Given the margin of error, the figure was 95% likely to be between 0.12% and 0.76%.

Sebastian Kurz, Austria’s chancellor, whose government commissioned the study and saw initial findings a few days ago, said on Monday that the rate of infection was around 1%. He said that disproved the idea of herd immunity - which requires widespread infection - as a viable policy option.

In March the UK government had suggested that herd immunity could provide the cornerstone to the nationwide response to the coronavirus outbreak, contrasting sharply with the detect, trace and quarantine approach taken by countries in Asia first affected and endorsed by the World Health Organization.

Officials soon abandoned the plan after modelling by scientists at University College, London, suggested it could lead to as many as 250,000 deaths.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-live-news-global-deaths-near-95000-as-boris-johnson-leaves-intensive-care

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 10:53AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

It’s gotta be longer. I wish they’d stop talking to us like we’re toddlers. Just a little longer. We know.

There are toddlers amongst us that wouldn't be able to deal with anything longer than a couple of weeks at a go.

The rest of us can read between the lines.

Juwwi · 10-04-2020 10:53AM

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

Corkgirl20 · 10-04-2020 10:53AM

cj maxx wrote: »

Reply to her how, when the pandemic is over and the death toll is counted, you will make sure to share that the gob****e didn't follow guidelines etc . And how this gonna look bad for her

Wouldn’t give her the time of day. The photographer from Sunday Independent is as much to blame for calling out to her bloody family house. Two idiots.

speckle · 10-04-2020 10:54AM

iguana wrote: »

I agree. If people have more rights due to immunity, it will lead to envy and people being tempted to deliberately get infected. But it's what a number of countries are working towards achieving once mass antibody testing is reliable. I suspect that if people with immunity are given more responsibilities rather than rights, that might help counter that. Mobilise people with immunity to work in areas where a cohort with immunity would make the most difference, ie acting as a shield for the vulnerable.

A practical solution. Great thoughts. well done.

10-04-2020 10:54AM

glasso wrote: »

the study in Germany is a known infection fatality rate for a population.

there is no such comparable number in Italy for any population.

talking about their health service being overwhelmed in Italy does not provide any quantifiable information

the fact is that if the infection fatality rate and infection hospitalisation rate is a fraction of what was assumed then this will definitely influence the subsequent stages of measures in Ireland

What exactly are you arguing here? That the low fatality rate in one German town can be applied to the entire world, and it somehow proves our death rates will be low? Italy and Spain might have something to say about that. Or are you suggesting that a high death rate means the virus is so widespread that we can achieve herd immunity? If it's the latter, we still don't know enough about immunity in relation to this virus, so it's just a theory at this point.

crossman47 · 10-04-2020 10:56AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

This is correct which is why we need to keep the present very reasonable restrictions going and introduce more if needed. We just can't trust people to act like adults and be responsible im afraid.

I'm afraid thats right and I imagine it is the reason strict conditions were not introduced at the start. If they had been, some cases would still have got through. Then, after a few weeks of lockdown, we would have seen significant disregarding of the rules. That would have resulted in the virus then spreading and it would have been impossible to reimpose strict conditions.

Thats my reading of the rationale anyway.

DevilsHaircut · 10-04-2020 10:57AM

From the Irish Times blog quoting Today with Sean O'Rourke:

'Prof [Kingston] Mills said that the universities were looking at developing antibody testing kits which would allow infected patients be tested and once they have developed sufficient antibodies they could be allowed back to work.'

If I understand correctly, the types of test include:

1. The lab-based PCR tests we are currently doing
2. Rapid PCR tests such as Abbott's (US using)
3. Lab-based ELISA antibody tests (which he was probably referring to)
4. Finger-prick 'at home' antibody tests

(Their accuracy varies)

BanditLuke · 10-04-2020 10:57AM

cloudatlas wrote: »

It’s gotta be longer. I wish they’d stop talking to us like we’re toddlers. Just a little longer. We know.

Unfortunately that's the way it must be done as a lot don't have the mental capacity or maturity to follow instruction and do the right thing.

You seen it after one bloody week of this thing the same people putting stuff up like "let's do it for Ireland" and "health care heros" on their timelines all of a sudden now complaining about having to sit home spending time with family, watching TV and sitting in the sun. It's not even a proper lockdown ffs

10-04-2020 10:58AM

Corkgirl20 wrote: »

A west Cork TV presenter now living in Dublin, it’s still on her story now.

If they are broadcasting it on instagram, the story is already out there, therefore no need to withhold the name.

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 10:58AM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

I assume that people arriving in on a ferry are subject to the same restrictions as the rest of us i.e. no unnecessary movements.

So unless these are Irish residents returning home from abroad, they should be sent back on the next ferry home.

caveat emptor · 10-04-2020 10:58AM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

If the ferry companies actually gave a **** they would just ban cars. Job done.
They are too greedy so instead should be legislated from. The port itself could refuse disembarkation from anyone they deem a health risk. I believe they've always had these powers.
Government could of course done something but it's nice to be nice and best not offend anyone with a roof box.

BanditLuke · 10-04-2020 10:59AM

iguana wrote: »

I agree. If people have more rights due to immunity, it will lead to envy and people being tempted to deliberately get infected. But it's what a number of countries are working towards achieving once mass antibody testing is reliable. I suspect that if people with immunity are given more responsibilities rather than rights, that might help counter that. Mobilise people with immunity to work in areas where a cohort with immunity would make the most difference, ie acting as a shield for the vulnerable.

Yeah that's a great post. Hadn't even thought of that scenario.

Corkgirl20 · 10-04-2020 11:01AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If they are broadcasting it on instagram, the story is already out there, therefore no need to withhold the name.

Fair point, I just don’t like giving these people extra attention.

Triona Mccarthy.
Instagram name is : Triona.ie

stephenjmcd · 10-04-2020 11:02AM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

Its complete rubbish. Stena and Irish ferries have both said hand full of cars on ships 99% trucks. Sensationalist crap

https://twitter.com/fergalrte/status/1248235621094735872?s=19

BanditLuke · 10-04-2020 11:02AM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

Jesus Christ. This is simply unbelievable :mad:

flanna01 · 10-04-2020 11:02AM

Phoebas wrote: »

I assume that people arriving in on a ferry are subject to the same restrictions as the rest of us i.e. no unnecessary movements.

So unless these are Irish residents returning home from abroad, they should be sent back on the next ferry home.

Why would Irish residents returning home be driving British registered cars...???

stephenjmcd · 10-04-2020 11:04AM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

https://twitter.com/fergalrte/status/1248235621094735872?s=19

Utter rubbish that article

10-04-2020 11:05AM

Flying Fox wrote: »

What exactly are you arguing here? That the low fatality rate in one German town can be applied to the entire world, and it somehow proves our death rates will be low? Italy and Spain might have something to say about that. Or are you suggesting that a high death rate means the virus is so widespread that we can achieve herd immunity? If it's the latter, we still don't know enough about immunity in relation to this virus, so it's just a theory at this point.

it's a data point.

it shows the the infection fatality rate (yes for that known demographic) is .4%

where else is there an infection fatality rate for a population documented?

it was previously assumed to be somewhere between 1% and 3% then that is a hugely significant data point. this means that hospitalisation rates are also much lower. as the focus of all measures employed here in Ireland are related to hospitalisation rates this is hugely significant to how measures here should be continued or moved to stage II

it cannot be necessarily applied to the whole world without further such data points which I'm sure will come out of Germany but you are just waffling with questions or "overwhelmed health service" - no data.

what have Italy and Spain to say about it - show me any data point that says anything about it

10-04-2020 11:05AM

Inquitus wrote: »

Less hopeful news from study:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-live-news-global-deaths-near-95000-as-boris-johnson-leaves-intensive-care

A couple of problems I can spot straight away with that study - 0.15% of the population of Austria have already tested positive. Yet the 95% confidence interval goes to 0.12%. Must have been a tiny sample size in the to give such a wide range, and one that fall outside the current actual detection rate.

Gynoid · 10-04-2020 11:07AM

Inquitus wrote: »

Less hopeful news from study:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-live-news-global-deaths-near-95000-as-boris-johnson-leaves-intensive-care

What does this mean?
They have 8 million pop. 250 dead. And less than 1% infection. About 0.33% acutely infected now it says. 80,000 approx is 1% of population. (Their recorded cases are about 12000).
At 250 out of 80000 it would be 0. 3% mortality rate. At 250 out of one third of that (0.33%) it would be 1% death rate. Maybe the margin of error on the poll is too large to allow interpretation?

Okay enough mental maths for me. I don't know what this poll means.

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 11:08AM

flanna01 wrote: »

Why would Irish residents returning home be driving British registered cars...???

The piece only says that 'quite a few' are on UK registered cars; the rest are not.
tbh, where they register their car isn't important - whether or not they are taking a necessary trip is.

is_that_so · 10-04-2020 11:09AM

Government update just started on RTE News Now. EDIT: Seems to be just DoF and Paschal.

Funsterdelux · 10-04-2020 11:11AM

Phoebas wrote: »

The piece only says that 'quite a few' are on UK registered cars; the rest are not.
tbh, where they register their car isn't important - whether or not they are taking a necessary trip is.

Possible importing of cheap uk secondhand cars

Possible importing of cheap coronavirus

10-04-2020 11:13AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its complete rubbish. Stena and Irish ferries have both said hand full of cars on ships 99% trucks. Sensationalist crap
https://twitter.com/fergalrte/status/1248235621094735872?s=19

Yes. '..... quiet a few UK reg cars were observed...'
Quite a few? What the feck kind of journalism is this?
I have suspicions about this mass exodus of Dublin residents to their second home in the sticks as well. Is there any real evidence of it, even one concrete example, or is it just more hysterical social media hype?

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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