CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

09-04-2020 09:03PM

Reading some of the posts about threatening damage to holiday homes, calling the guards on neighbours, some otherwise rational posters here beginning to sound very stressed and angry towards people from different counties, I was suddenly reminded of a time not 100 years ago that us Irish have tried to erase from the collective memory.
We won't see centenary commemorations for the bitter atrocities committed during our civil war. When our people murdered each other in such ways as would make us ashamed to read about. There's a great historian on twitter recounting them day by day as they happened. A couple of men tied to a mine and it detonated, executions a daily event.
As our society begins to break down, as it is in the early stages of now, it's easy to see we can revert to exactly the same divided views in a very short time.
It won't go that far, but be aware that so called civilised society is held together by very delicate threads.

Funsterdelux · 09-04-2020 09:04PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

Id say maybe 11-17 months

Lundstram · 09-04-2020 09:05PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

No. It'd be 11-17 months now.

gabeeg · 09-04-2020 09:05PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

Well seeing as how we're now at least five decades into this now, I think we can expect Boots stocked with vaccines by tomorrow

Funsterdelux · 09-04-2020 09:05PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Reading some of the posts about threatening damage to holiday homes, calling the guards on neighbours, some otherwise rational posters here beginning to sound very stressed and angry towards people from different counties, I was suddenly reminded of a time not 100 years ago that us Irish have tried to erase from the collective memory.
We won't see centenary commemorations for the bitter atrocities committed during our civil war. When our people murdered each other in such ways as would make us ashamed to read about. There's a great historian on twitter recounting them day by day as they happened. A couple of men tied to a mine and it detonated, executions a daily event.
As our society begins to break down, as it is in the early stages of now, it's easy to see we can revert to exactly the same divided views in a very short time.
It won't go that far, but be aware that so called civilised society is held together by very delicate threads.

Are you pro or anti treaty?

Loafing Oaf · 09-04-2020 09:06PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-scientists-in-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Israeli scientists: 'In a few weeks, we will have coronavirus vaccine'
Once the vaccine is developed, it will take at least 90 days to complete the regulatory process and potentially more to enter the marketplace.

UrbanFret · 09-04-2020 09:06PM

https://www.facebook.com/Garda-Siochana-Wicklow-1277809749087347/?hc_ref=ARS8X0OvdPW-_oi--CLLNn07ZKa1xb4KMUDMUAXEG-Ax1l3HFO4pDQlSBa4WhxZdDnA&fref=nf&__tn__=kC-R

speckle · 09-04-2020 09:06PM

glasso wrote: »

I'd say you're safe

And so is our one and only resident in the pheonix park

igCorcaigh · 09-04-2020 09:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Reading some of the posts about threatening damage to holiday homes, calling the guards on neighbours, some otherwise rational posters here beginning to sound very stressed and angry towards people from different counties, I was suddenly reminded of a time not 100 years ago that us Irish have tried to erase from the collective memory.
We won't see centenary commemorations for the bitter atrocities committed during our civil war. When our people murdered each other in such ways as would make us ashamed to read about. There's a great historian on twitter recounting them day by day as they happened. A couple of men tied to a mine and it detonated, executions a daily event.
As our society begins to break down, as it is in the early stages of now, it's easy to see we can revert to exactly the same divided views in a very short time.
It won't go that far, but be aware that so called civilised society is held together by very delicate threads.

Speaking of Threads, the current situation reminds me of the opening lines:

"In an urban society, everything connects. Each person's needs are fed by the skills of many others. Our lives are woven together in a fabric. But the connections that make society strong also make it vulnerable."

Hobgoblin11 · 09-04-2020 09:06PM

Seamai wrote: »

With Austria bordering northern Italy I'm guessing they're planning on keeping the border shut?

and no less than seven other countries not including Italy

delly · 09-04-2020 09:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Reading some of the posts about threatening damage to holiday homes, calling the guards on neighbours, some otherwise rational posters here beginning to sound very stressed and angry towards people from different counties, I was suddenly reminded of a time not 100 years ago that us Irish have tried to erase from the collective memory.
We won't see centenary commemorations for the bitter atrocities committed during our civil war. When our people murdered each other in such ways as would make us ashamed to read about. There's a great historian on twitter recounting them day by day as they happened. A couple of men tied to a mine and it detonated, executions a daily event.
As our society begins to break down, as it is in the early stages of now, it's easy to see we can revert to exactly the same divided views in a very short time.
It won't go that far, but be aware that so called civilised society is held together by very delicate threads.

I consider myself to be a very rational and passive person, but with having a young member of my household with a long term illness, I'll happily go savage for the muppets who don't give a toss about restrictions.

gabeeg · 09-04-2020 09:07PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Any chance you can share the underlying data? I'd be really interested in how you're coming to that assumption.
We get new case figures each day, we don't know when those tests were done, when the symptoms first occured, if that test was a result of contract tracing etc...

For all we know of the 500 cases today, some could be from someone with symptoms a week ago and infected a week before that, some may be health care workers, nursing homes etc... And as such the number of the public out there spreading it could be alot less than we (us so called specialists) are aware of

Point is, there's so much more details/data those making the decisions see that we are privy to.
The fact hospitalization and ICU admissions are growing at a much smaller % than new case numbers shows the spread out in the public is a lot less than new cases shows.

I agree with you, they're failing all of us with their lack of transparency

they should make the data public

great point, mate

what a bunch of clowns they are

gmisk · 09-04-2020 09:08PM

speckle wrote: »

And so is our one and only resident in the pheonix park

A lot more than one person lives in Phoenix park...

Hobgoblin11 · 09-04-2020 09:09PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Id say maybe 11-17 months

did I say 1 month, actually it was 6 weeks

Hobgoblin11 · 09-04-2020 09:10PM

Lundstram wrote: »

No. It'd be 11-17 months now.

it was six weeks ago, it just checked

Seamai · 09-04-2020 09:10PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

100,000 possible cases worst case scenario without knowing the actual number like every other country.

Seems pretty straightforward.

That's not going to happen though.

Did he not mean peaking at 100,000 cases rather than 100,000 new cases every day?
The latter sounds ridiculous.

Funsterdelux · 09-04-2020 09:10PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

did I say 1 month, actually it was 6 weeks

10.5 -16.5 months;)

Wombatman · 09-04-2020 09:11PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Point is, there's so much more details/data those making the decisions see that we are privy to.
The fact hospitalization and ICU admissions are growing at a much smaller % than new case numbers shows the spread out in the public is a lot less than new cases shows.

No statistics on this should be hidden from the public.

ICU admissions will flatten when capacity is reached.

Over the last 7 days the death rate has grown faster than new case growth.

Our deaths per million is now 53. Denmark is 41. A week ago we were tracking Denmark nicely, a country with similar demographics to us.

Hobgoblin11 · 09-04-2020 09:12PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

10.5 -16.5 months;)

Ok now I know the exact date, i was 43 days ago Thurs, January 30, 2020

KerryConnor · 09-04-2020 09:12PM

political analyst wrote: »

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

1% would be horrific. That is 4 people in relatively small company of 400 I work in.

Wolf359f · 09-04-2020 09:12PM

gabeeg wrote: »

I agree with you, they're failing all of us with their lack of transparency

they should make the data public

great point, mate

what a bunch of clowns they are

I don't think they can make all the data available, breaking down each test and when it was taken etc....
I would like to see a weekly curve with accurate cases, either the day the test was taken or the day symptoms started, so we can see a change. Adding in 100 positive cases from 2 weeks ago into today etc... Would just skew the numbers/curve.
Maybe if it looked like it was flattening, the public would be likely to let their guard down.

DelaneyIn · 09-04-2020 09:13PM

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

09-04-2020 09:13PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1248350431392096256?s=19

We could use something like that for greyhounds here.

DevilsHaircut · 09-04-2020 09:13PM

fr336 wrote: »

Remember the days of this thread where most people could see what was going to happen even if we hoped it never would? Would it have been far less damaging socially and economically to have closed the borders when things were getting out of hand in Italy? Just think - now the travel industry would be on its knees but on the plus side the rest of the economy would be business as usual and no lockdowns.

Closing the borders would not have meant business as usual for the rest of the economy.

Loafing Oaf · 09-04-2020 09:14PM

KerryConnor wrote: »

1% would be horrific. That is 4 people in relatively small company of 400 I work in.

Yeah even if the 'vulnerable' could be effectively quarantined (which I don't believe for a second), 1% of those remaining would be tens of thousands dying...

stephenjmcd · 09-04-2020 09:14PM

DelaneyIn wrote: »

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

Pretty simple we aren't in the Schengen agreement

gabeeg · 09-04-2020 09:15PM

political analyst wrote: »

You might as well be trying to eradicate hay fever!

If the elderly and those with underlying health problems (e.g. cystic fibrosis) remain in isolation while all other people go back to normal then herd immunity will form among all other people and then the pandemic will be over in a relatively short period of time.

Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell said many people who have the virus are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms and recover without even knowing they had it - and so the mortality rate could be even less than 1%!

Tegnell has been criticized for his role in the mass vaccination scheme of 5 million Swedes against Swine Flu which caused about 500 patients to suffer from narcolepsy. Tegnell has been reported as saying of Pandemrix, the vaccine that had been known to cause neurological issues, that:[19][better source needed]

“ It would have been deeply unethical not to vaccinate people because hundreds of Swedes risked dying. ”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anders_Tegnell

I'm not sure we should listen to that guy

blackcard · 09-04-2020 09:15PM

Excluding the current crisis, the mean life expectancy of an Irish person is 82 years, males at 80 years and females at 84. I found it difficult to get any data on the median age that an Irish person does but in other countries it is about 3 years higher than the mean age so around 85 years which is what one would expect. (The mode is usually a year or two older again)

Based on the data that has been given, there does not appear to be a huge difference between the above statistics and the ages at which people have died from the coronavirus. Statistically it will probably have a relatively small effect. However, the life expectancy of an 80 year old is 8 years and this is where the most effect will be

Wolf359f · 09-04-2020 09:19PM

Wombatman wrote: »

No statistics on this should be hidden from the public.

ICU admissions will flatten when capacity is reached.

Over the last 7 days the death rate has grown faster than new case growth.

Our deaths per million is now 53. Denmark is 41. A week ago we were tracking Denmark nicely, a country with similar demographics to us.

The % needing hospitalization and ICU are updated every day. You can track a trend, day after day less and less % increase, which means a flattening of the curve, regardless of new cases.
Are Denmark listing all deaths regardless of the cause of death, as long as they were infected? Because there is a massive difference in how countries are counting it.
People critise China for the death figures and you look at the UK only counting deaths in hospital etc...

bodhrandude · 09-04-2020 09:19PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

best case scenario for a vaccine now anyone? it was 12-18 months a month ago, is that sill the case?

Correction 10 - 16 months they've been saying that for the last 2 months now so give it 6 months.

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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