Property Market 2020

Ap2020 wrote: »

Many of the workers here from Brazil are here on study visas, they will not have any access to social welfare while on a study visa where they are a non EEA national.

While I agree a few are likely to leave - let's be honest here, when the rental sector was on its knees last time round, the government were actively turning a blind eye to the Brazilians and their English language schools, to keep accomodation filled.

Everybody (and the government) knew the English language schools were just a shady way of getting a 20 hour work visa. It's only when we started running short on rental property that they started cracking down.

If things do take a serious turn in the rental sector, the government are going to turn a blind eye again to prevent making things worse.

Dont underestimate how many Brazilians live in Dublin city centre, probably half are illegal and have no intention of ever leaving.

Compared to a lot of other nationalities, I think everyone agrees they would rather have tens of thousands of Brazilians around rather than tens of thousands of certain other nationalities who dont integrate like the Brazilians do.

I've never heard many complaints about them, in comparison to other minority nationalities in Ireland. They dont cause trouble really.

TheSheriff wrote: »

Can also add to this.

We have pulled out of all properties we've been bidding on.

One EA kept following up as all other bidders have clearly fallen off a cliff.

We had bid asking initially and were prepared to go higher by potentially another 5-10%; after some negotiating we've managed to get them down 20k from asking (closer to 6%).

Have some thinking to do to decide if we pull the trigger......

6% is not bad. Loads to think about. If you can get more go for it.



Are you in stable employment? Will you get a mortgage in 12/18 months time? Where you're renting is there a possibiity of owner sayin they want their house back? Will property prices come down 10% or more within 12/18 months?

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

Where abouts was this?

GreeBo wrote: »

To those who think it's all doom and gloom and that jobs and businesses will be irrecoverably lost, why do you think that a new business won't open in place of the old, assuming the old was profitable prior to the pandemic?

Because the ESRI and many others said so. They kinda know what they are talking about.

Only starting to save for a deposit, living at home and thankfully a decent job that's reasonably Covidproof so I reckon I could be looking to buy in 16-18 months.

In terms of where the market is then my best judgement is it won't be down hugely given demand but if it's true banks are no longer offering exemptions that alone will change the dynamic. It will compress more and more people into that 275-350 space and maybe keep this segment strong while weakening the slightly more expensive units.

If the economy doesn't re-emerge well from Covid we could well see substantial falls but people in this thread saying things like "there's no way it goes down more than 10%" or "You're mad if you don't think prices are going to fall a quarter" are clearly pulling figures out of their árses because there's no precedent for this. Nobody knows with any confidence so stop pretending you do because conversely pretending you know what you're talking about just proves you don't know what you're talking about.

As JP Morgan said to someone who asked him what the market was going to do next, "it's going to fluctuate".

Marius34 wrote: »

While you are right that nobody knows with a confidence. But as investing in stocks for the last 18 years, and following Property market. I can say from experience, its way easier to predict property market, in comparison to stocks or currency. I would say that you can not predict stock market for short term, as any minor news can have swing price within a minute, but you do can predict property market, although not with certainty, as things like for example new banking regulation rules can make a big difference..
Property is very illiquid when compared to stocks. There are limited buyers and sellers for each unit, thus creating enough time to recognize when things are starting to go one way or another.

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

You're correct in the obvious that no-one knows the future in certainty, but we can use evidence drawn from experts and observing what has happened before to make educated guesses at what we believe will happen and compare reasoning.

What happened the property market after the last global pandemic during which we put the economy into an induced coma? and you don't get to know how long the coma lasts yet.

There is no what happened before for this.

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

How the 1918 Spanish flu effected different cities in the United States is an interesting example of how social distancing policies can effect the pandemic and economies as each state had different policies on how to deal with it - St Louis and Philadelphia are usually cited as opposing examples here if you care to search for it.

We can also see how the former epicentre of the pandemic is handling its economic recovery in real time - the Financial Times has an interesting piece on Wuhan economic activity compared to this time last year, including property sales.

There is definitely uncertainty there, as is obvious, but we have the knowledge to make reasonable guesses as to what we think will happen and this is not baseless.

Half of Spanish Flu victims were between 20-40 and society wide property ownership was much lower than it is today. Covid seems to be fairly selective in terms of age and older people are, generally speaking, homeowners. The entire supply side dynamic is not comparable at all.

On the demand side the Spanish Flu is 100 years ago, far more people still working the land where social distancing is much easier than office working. Among a million other things it's too late to start into typing.

I would have serious question marks over how relevant the experience after Spanish flu is to this tbh.

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

You do can have some estimate on the economy in short/medium term. It will negatively impact property price, GDP, Unemployment etc. at least in short term.
You can not say the same about the future of stocks, as stocks value gets calculated in, all the expected impact, within minutes.

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

And in this particular situation nobody has any idea what this crisis is going to do to the economy and as a result the buyer side of the market, none whatsoever.

Laughable.