Property Market 2020

Hubertj

The_Conductor wrote: »

Even the people who do go back to work- aren't going to spend their disposable income as they might once have done. Anyone who is sane will try to solidify their finances, pay down debt, make sure that they're not as stretched if they end up in a similar situation again (and there could very well be a second or even a third surge of Covid, before vaccinations eventually become available).

Anyone who imagines that the lockdown will be over in a couple of weeks and life will go back to normal, is a hopeless optimist, and while its nice that there are optimistic people out there, you have to be realistic.

I was listening to Radio 1 this morning- a spokesperson for the CIF said we have 26k residential units at various stages of construction in the pipeline. If/when the lockdown ends- the majority of these will once again be manned and brought forward. What is far less clear is whether new sites will be started on, as we might have expected earlier this year, before everything went to hell on a broomstick.

In a situation where people fundamentally change their borrowing and spending habits- and governments have to pay down their debts (with the possible exception of the US- where the dollar continues to operate as the default reserve currency)- the global economy is going to take a long long time to recover.

Historically the US has been the global consumer of last resort- a market where the rest of the world could dump whatever they produce at whatever price they can get- if there is no market for it elsewhere. However, the dichotomy that has emerged there over the last few years, means it would be very dangerous for anyone to imagine that the US will bail out the global economy as it might once have done.

Protectionism is growing- even in the context of the individual countries who make up the single market of the EU. The lasting legacy of Covid may be a realisation that countries cannot rely on other countries having a joint interest in each other's betterment (as evidenced by France, Germany, Spain, Italy and The US- at various stages, blocking vital aid to each other, or even in some instances practising what can only be described as piracy against one another).

Things are never going to be the same again- there will be a new 'normal', but I suspect it will be a lot more insular and local in nature- than the global view a lot of countries, including Ireland, held such a short time ago.

In the context of the Irish property market- what would constitute a 'new normal'. Almost certainly- demand will weaken, supply will weaken, credit will tighten, and presumably, rents will fall (reducing the imperative for many people to own property).

We may have a young population- which will help us in the immediate future- but the picture as close as 10 years down the road, paints a very different picture. Our social welfare state- was hopelessly unaffordable- even before Covid broke out- we've bailed it out temporarily with borrowed money- this is something we won't be able to do going forwards- even as the number of +/>66 people looks set to double by 2029 (CSO projections).

This may be the one off opportunity that an incoming government uses to implement some really odious policies- safe in the knowledge that they can sell it as prudently investing in the future of the country- and anyone who tries to sell completely unaffordable social dreams to people, may be seen by more people as charlatans and purveyors of smoke and mirrors.

The recovery will be what we make it- and in an Irish context, our capacity to recover from the mess may be better than the capacity of many of our neighbours- but by God, it is going to hurt, and we most certainly are not going to return to our old 'normal'.

Should you not caveat this post by stating it is an opinion not supported by any facts? Terrible attitude even if you think you are being “realistic”

Cyrus

GreeBo wrote: »

Jaysus, why would you pay that to live in Carrickmines when you could get something for the same price, same sort of house in a much better location?
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/22-brighton-place-brighton-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4419939
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-merlyn-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-do4-yit2/4418869
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-rathdown-park-dublin-6w-dublin-d6wdt28/4331310

im not defending it as the house in carrickmines wouldnt be for me but to be fair its in a nice location, its right behind cabinteely park which is lovely, and cabineteely village has more going for it than fox rock. its also a bit futher way from the m50 compared to the brighton wood house.

the other two houses are old and need complete refurbishment, so you are looking at another 300k min on top.

GreeBo

GreeBo wrote: »

Jaysus, why would you pay that to live in Carrickmines when you could get something for the same price, same sort of house in a much better location?
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/22-brighton-place-brighton-road-foxrock-dublin-18/4419939
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-merlyn-road-ballsbridge-dublin-4-do4-yit2/4418869
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/23-rathdown-park-dublin-6w-dublin-d6wdt28/4331310

The house in carrickmines & the house in foxrock are literally 3 mins walk from each other.
Carrickmine wood was the first estate with houses priced at a million, if I remember right.
This house is inside the m50, basically it is foxrock

guyfawkes5

Dylan94 wrote: »

I've been following this thread quite a while as was planning to buy towards the end of this year around Dublin.

I dont think that there will be huge 20% plus price drops, but I also don't think that there will be no price drops. I would expect that 2nd hand houses will fall by a very maximum of 15% over the next 9-12 months and as the economy repairs it will likely go back to around current prices soon after.

I dont think that the supply of new houses would completely dry up, since most of the larger developers ready have vast amounts of land bought and won't just stop building, the shareholders wouldn't be happy. They will build for a lower profit rather than no profit at all. Although I would expect new build prices to have an even smaller drop, maybe 5-7% max in the Dublin area. Probably even less so outside of Dublin. Since this isn't likely going to last too many years, I would suspect that it would be cheaper/more profitable to just keep going through it at a lower margin and I suspect we will see even less houses offering extras such as flooring included. They will find other ways to cut back to keep profits up.

I think you're broadly right.

The biggest long term effect on the property market will be structural changes the new government decides to make and not the Coronavirus. It will be interesting to see the new FF/FG policy document coming out this week, presuming it has substance.

Browney7

Hubertj wrote: »

Should you not caveat this post by stating it is an opinion not supported by any facts? Terrible attitude even if you think you are being “realistic”

You must be new here. There are no facts to the contrary either.

If you dislike the nature and style of The Conductor's post I'd recommend riding off into the sunset and not looking back for the good of your own sanity.

You're not going to get reasoned, evidence based economic paper style posts in here citing references and data.

Hubertj

Browney7 wrote: »

You must be new here. There are no facts to the contrary either.

If you dislike the nature and style of The Conductor's post I'd recommend riding off into the sunset and not looking back for the good of your own sanity.

You're not going to get reasoned, evidence based economic paper style posts in here citing references and data.

I figured that out before I signed up!!! but would expect more balance from a ‘moderator’?

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

The house in carrickmines & the house in foxrock are literally 3 mins walk from each other.
Carrickmine wood was the first estate with houses priced at a million, if I remember right.
This house is inside the m50, basically it is foxrock

yep, nice estate that carrickmines woods / oaks as it goes

although i do dislike the 2000s new builds with pvc windows etc, they have aged badly.

PommieBast

Dylan94 wrote: »

I dont think that there will be huge 20% plus price drops, but I also don't think that there will be no price drops. I would expect that 2nd hand houses will fall by a very maximum of 15% over the next 9-12 months and as the economy repairs it will likely go back to around current prices soon after.

Not sure about a return to current prices but otherwise not far off my thinking.


Even before C19 I was pricing in a potential 10-15% drop purely because the stock on the housing market was mostly knackered ex-rental places for which I was more or less expecting to get ripped off. Lack of new-builds is pretty much the only thing propping up the value of such old stock. However for drops of 30-50% I do seriously wonder how many properties out there have the equity to take such a hit..

ebayissues

Estate agents are still up to their old tricks trying to put the impression that house prices have dropped..On myhome,so many houses in an area I'm watching have had price increases and then decreases.


Should myhome not have a minimum period for subquent price changes?

I think if you look at who has lost their jobs as of TODAY, are they really going to dent the property market? Taxis/Salons/Restaurants/Bars/Construction/Travel/Hotels/Retail employees etc - unless you're an owner of a business in that field or earning enough, you're probably not (based on speaking to friends who work in a lot of the above industries) going to impact prices in the standard 3 bed semi/4 bed semi range in Dublin and surrounding areas (Wicklow/Meath/Kildare etc)? Of course there have been exceptions where well paid employees in those fields have been let go but most people are still working and earning money.

Humour Me

Deleted User wrote: »

I think if you look at who has lost their jobs as of TODAY, are they really going to dent the property market? Taxis/Salons/Restaurants/Bars/Construction/Travel/Hotels/Retail employees etc - unless you're an owner of a business in that field or earning enough, you're probably not (based on speaking to friends who work in a lot of the above industries) going to impact prices in the standard 3 bed semi/4 bed semi range in Dublin and surrounding areas (Wicklow/Meath/Kildare etc)? Of course there have been exceptions where well paid employees in those fields have been let go but most people are still working and earning money.

But the longer this goes on, the more roles will be impacted. Take the travel industry for example, how many pilots are going to be furloughed with the majority of planes grounded? Architects, engineers etc in the construction industry. The professional services firms are also being impacted, if they aren’t working, they can’t bill fees and pay staff.

TheSheriff

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think if you look at who has lost their jobs as of TODAY, are they really going to dent the property market? Taxis/Salons/Restaurants/Bars/Construction/Travel/Hotels/Retail employees etc - unless you're an owner of a business in that field or earning enough, you're probably not (based on speaking to friends who work in a lot of the above industries) going to impact prices in the standard 3 bed semi/4 bed semi range in Dublin and surrounding areas (Wicklow/Meath/Kildare etc)? Of course there have been exceptions where well paid employees in those fields have been let go but most people are still working and earning money.

I disagree, there is a place for everyone on the property ladder, and it will all have an impact.

People with lower paid jobs are hugely competitive for apartments, driving up the price and perhaps making said apartments less appealing to those on higher wages.

We started viewing apartments in Dublin in the 250-300k mark, but the bidding was highly competitive, with many properties going well over. We saw less value in the apartment market and moved to looking at houses in the plus 400k range.

If there was less competition for smaller properties and thus value to be had we would have jumped on it, thus taking us out of the 400+ house market.

Everyone will have some impact.

MrMusician18

I do love the two types of poster battling it out on this thread - property owners trying to convince themselves and others that a crash isn't coming and the prospective buyers trying to convince themselves and others that a major crash is coming.

Given that the market is frozen, it's hard to see anything other than falls in prices. Yes some rightly point out that the most effected don't own property, but when you chop the legs off an economy, everyone ends up on their knees. FDI has practically stopped and that is the engine of the economy.

I don't know how deep the falls will be, but there will be falls though. No amount of wishing or arguing that they won't happen won't change that. There is a reason why Hibernian Reit has lost 30% of it's share value since January.

fifth

ebayissues wrote: »

Estate agents are still up to their old tricks trying to put the impression that house prices have dropped..On myhome,so many houses in an area I'm watching have had price increases and then decreases.


Should myhome not have a minimum period for subquent price changes?

Also noticing this in my area - in fact it's the estate agent I've been dealing with (was buying a new build until they shut down developent). Adding 40k 3-4 weeks ago, knock off 40k last week. Done it on a number of properties :rolleyes:

ittakestwo

ittakestwo wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-rent/rathmines/123-the-mews-observatory-lane-rathmines-dublin-2013481/

There was a 4 bed house in Rathmines put on Daft for 5000pm at the beginning of March. Its now at €2750 with multiple price drops over the last 3 weeks. With the pictures of towels on the bed I would presume an ex Airbnb. Shocking to think they thought they could get €5000pm for that townhouse. It does not even have a living room for that rent.

The rent has gone like this;

March 13 €5000pm
March 18 €4750pm
March 20 €4500pm
March 23 €4250pm
March 25 €3750pm
March 27 €3250pm
March 31 €2999pm
April 03 €2750pm

Now at €2500pm,

I am guessing the LL was taking in well over €5000pm on Airbnb so thought they would try and see if they could get it on rental market.... but they're now facing their day of reckoning.

JimmyVik

ittakestwo wrote: »

Now at €2500pm,

I am guessing the LL was taking in well over €5000pm on Airbnb so thought they would try and see if they could get it on rental market.... but they're now facing their day of reckoning.

Or are they just going to take what they can get in what is effectively a zero market and then when it all pans out either go back to airbnb or sell?


I know thats what id be doing if the arse dropped out of my income from an airbnb.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

There was no new stock (as no one was building) and most sales were forced, so there wasnt a consistent flow of product,

Added to that most couldnt access credit meant the odd person got a bargain where they didnt need a mortgage, there was also people would could borrow and again the odd one got a bargain, but either you needed to be lucky or not very fussy about what you got as supply was massively constrained.

None of that makes it for a non functional market. The current market prior to Covid was high in demand thanks to banks lending money and supply was short. That is a dysfunctional market. A market driven by credit is inflated by definition and can not function in the long term. If someone needs to borrow a huge amount of money maybe they shouldn't be buying in the first place


I sales agreed in 2013, was looking for a year, the number of properties on offer was huge at the time.

Cyrus

Mic 1972 wrote: »

None of that makes it for a non functional market. The current market prior to Covid was high in demand thanks to banks lending money and supply was short. That is a dysfunctional market. A market driven by credit is inflated by definition and can not function in the long term. If someone needs to borrow a huge amount of money maybe they shouldn't be buying in the first place


I sales agreed in 2013, was looking for a year, the number of properties on offer was huge at the time.

Most of the stock in 2013 had been for sale for quite some time , perhaps the stock wasn’t all that wonderful if you were looking for a year ?

And houses are generally bought on credit , lending is relatively constrained at the moment due to the cb rules

q85dw7osi4lebg

ittakestwo wrote: »

Now at €2500pm,

I am guessing the LL was taking in well over €5000pm on Airbnb so thought they would try and see if they could get it on rental market.... but they're now facing their day of reckoning.

You forgot this part -

"PLEASE NOTE: THIS PROPERTY IS PART OF A GUESTHOUSE AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE DURING APRIL FOR THE CURRENT PRICE. IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE BOOKING DATES ON BOOKING.COM."

OwlsZat

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

You forgot this part -

"PLEASE NOTE: THIS PROPERTY IS PART OF A GUESTHOUSE AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE DURING APRIL FOR THE CURRENT PRICE. IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE BOOKING DATES ON BOOKING.COM."

What's galling is there is nobody investigating and resolving such obvious illegal activity. Housing department Dublin city council etc. No smart collaboration whatsoever, just a blind eye.

Gary Gurney

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

You forgot this part -

"PLEASE NOTE: THIS PROPERTY IS PART OF A GUESTHOUSE AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE DURING APRIL FOR THE CURRENT PRICE. IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE BOOKING DATES ON BOOKING.COM."

Disgraceful behaviour. Greed just doesn't cover it.

8-10

Looking at Daft there, in the last week (including 31st March), there have been 11 properties newly listed for sale in Kildare and only 3 in Wicklow

Stock is falling off a cliff

Peter File

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

You forgot this part -

"PLEASE NOTE: THIS PROPERTY IS PART OF A GUESTHOUSE AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE DURING APRIL FOR THE CURRENT PRICE. IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE BOOKING DATES ON BOOKING.COM."

They seem to think only airbnb lets were stopped and that they can use other sites.

alan_mur

ebayissues wrote: »

Estate agents are still up to their old tricks trying to put the impression that house prices have dropped..On myhome,so many houses in an area I'm watching have had price increases and then decreases.


Should myhome not have a minimum period for subquent price changes?

Saw one estate agent remove 3 listing yesterday to re-list immediately, presuming not to show the reduction in price. One was down 5% and another down 10% in asking price both down €30K.

voluntary

Gary Gurney wrote: »

Disgraceful behaviour. Greed just doesn't cover it.

What's disgraceful about this add?

Roberto_gas

Deleted User wrote: »

I think if you look at who has lost their jobs as of TODAY, are they really going to dent the property market? Taxis/Salons/Restaurants/Bars/Construction/Travel/Hotels/Retail employees etc - unless you're an owner of a business in that field or earning enough, you're probably not (based on speaking to friends who work in a lot of the above industries) going to impact prices in the standard 3 bed semi/4 bed semi range in Dublin and surrounding areas (Wicklow/Meath/Kildare etc)? Of course there have been exceptions where well paid employees in those fields have been let go but most people are still working and earning money.

Most in those categories are working couples and will compete in 3 bed/4bed semis !

Ap2020

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

You forgot this part -

"PLEASE NOTE: THIS PROPERTY IS PART OF A GUESTHOUSE AND IS ONLY AVAILABLE DURING APRIL FOR THE CURRENT PRICE. IT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FUTURE BOOKING DATES ON BOOKING.COM."

I wonder will the RTB take a hard stance on these properties from an RPZ perspective.

The Residential Tenancies Acts exempt from the application of the Act (in s 3(2)(f)) "a dwelling let to a person whose entitlement to occupation is for the purpose of a holiday only". However there are now two problems with that.

The first is that "holiday" is not defined, and many of these short term lets through booking.com/AirBnB/etc. are not targeted at holiday makers exclusively. A lot of the time they are occupied by people looking for something for a few weeks while they work here or wait for more permanent accommodation. That wouldn't fall under any reasonable definition of Holiday.

The second is that s 38 of the Residential Tenancies (Amendment) Act 2019 and regulations made under that section specifically sets out that any use of a house in an RPZ for short term letting requires planning permission. It would be entirely reasonable for the RTB to take the view that where someone claims an exemption from the Residential Tenancies Acts by virtue of s 3(2)(f) they must provide the requisite permission form the appropriate planning authority. Essentially increasing the burden of rebutting the presumption that a property is one to which the Residential Tenancies Acts apply, which would be appropriate given that there is now, in law, an objective way to determine this (planning permission).


Now that ordinarily would not matter, as no holiday maker is about to take a dispute to the RTB. However, the RTB now, since the 2019 amendments, has its own independent enforcement authority when it comes to the RPZs. This would grant some easy wins for the RTB's authorised officers, given how blatant the short term let landlords are being in this crisis and how little public sympathy there would be for these people.

If the Authorised Officers have any courage, they'll be marking these boys down and coming for them in a year's time, fining them and reminding them that whether the lets are short term or long term they are bound by the ceilings on rent increases under the RPZ formula.

JimmyVik

Ap2020 wrote: »

I wonder will the RTB take a hard stance on these properties from an RPZ perspective.

The Residential Tenancies Acts exempt from the application of the Act (in s 3(2)(f)) "a dwelling let to a person whose entitlement to occupation is for the purpose of a holiday only". However there are now two problems with that.

The first is that "holiday" is not defined, and many of these short term lets through booking.com/AirBnB/etc. are not targeted at holiday makers exclusively. A lot of the time they are occupied by people looking for something for a few weeks while they work here or wait for more permanent accommodation. That wouldn't fall under any reasonable definition of Holiday.

The second is that s 38 of the Residential Tenancies (Amendment) Act 2019 and regulations made under that section specifically sets out that any use of a house in an RPZ for short term letting requires planning permission. It would be entirely reasonable for the RTB to take the view that where someone claims an exemption from the Residential Tenancies Acts by virtue of s 3(2)(f) they must provide the requisite permission form the appropriate planning authority. Essentially increasing the burden of rebutting the presumption that a property is one to which the Residential Tenancies Acts apply, which would be appropriate given that there is now, in law, an objective way to determine this (planning permission).


Now that ordinarily would not matter, as no holiday maker is about to take a dispute to the RTB. However, the RTB now, since the 2019 amendments, has its own independent enforcement authority when it comes to the RPZs. This would grant some easy wins for the RTB's authorised officers, given how blatant the short term let landlords are being in this crisis and how little public sympathy there would be for these people.

If the Authorised Officers have any courage, they'll be marking these boys down and coming for them in a year's time, fining them and reminding them that whether the lets are short term or long term they are bound by the ceilings on rent increases under the RPZ formula.

I dont think there will be much of problem with AirBnbs soon.
I think there will be a major shortage of rental properties and a shortage of sort term lets for that matter.
This will be the catalyst for private landlords who were hanging in there hoping things would get better for them to sell up and ship out.


The plus side is there may be a good few extra houses and apartments for a while, but I think building of new properties is going to slow to a crawl and that overhang will be swept up by buyers pretty quickly.
So the renters will be competing for an even smaller pool of rentals that there are now.

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

Most of the stock in 2013 had been for sale for quite some time , perhaps the stock wasn’t all that wonderful if you were looking for a year ?

And houses are generally bought on credit , lending is relatively constrained at the moment due to the cb rules

Taking 1 year to buy a second hand property is pretty standard considering the time spent searching for the right property, evaluating the cost of renovation and then going through with the sale. It's the same if you buy second hand property right now. On the other hand the market was moving very fast in 2013 already, not sure where you are getting your facts,

Idbatterim

the thing is, if you want to wait it out, to try and achieve where prices were a few months ago, you need to wait a good length of time and then if they increase again, honest to god, it could be a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG time before they get back to where they are now. Depends on your cirumstance.