Property Market 2020

snotboogie

snotboogie wrote: »

There will be very little traveling while social distancing remains in place. Once social distancing is lifted people will go back to their old habits withing a few months. The question is when it will be lifted.

As soon as I can I'm off to Portugal or somewhere.
That accepted I probably won't be able to call around to my Dad until months after that as he's 70+.

Graham

Cuddlesworth wrote: »

In Ireland I can't see it happening. Remember, there is a team of people out there hunting and shutting them down. What might have seemed like it was a couple of years worth of work disappeared overnight.

When they start to trickle back onto the market, they will be quickly located and shut down. It's like a reset for the that team, they can catch it at the start again.

+1

We'll have moved from whack-a-mole with 5000 moles and 1 whacker, to whack-a-mole with 200 moles and 12 whackers.

cd76

Graham wrote: »

While you might be right cd76, you do appear to be consistently confusing opinions and forecasts with facts.

I've stated these as my observations not facts as they are in the future. It is based on my experiences having been through multiple property cycles both in the UK and Ireland. Up to any reader if they want to go ahead and buy now or not. Get clearer day by day that the market is crashing and general consensus that at least a 30% correction is imminent

Humilde

cd76 wrote: »

I've stated these as my observations not facts as they are in the future. It is based on my experiences having been through multiple property cycles both in the UK and Ireland. Up to any reader if they want to go ahead and buy now or not. Get clearer day by day that the market is crashing and general consensus that at least a 30% correction is imminent

I think you are right that a crash is imminent. But, like the last crash, what happens is that most people just withdraw their property from sale rather than give it away unless you are desperate to sell a house. But most houses for sale are from people who want the money to go to another house. The big thing is that developers will stop completely and we'll be back to zero new construction rates for the country. Some vulture fund properties etc may get cheaper. The interesting question is what will happen to rents..........

BillyBiggs

Humilde wrote: »

I think you are right that a crash is imminent. But, like the last crash, what happens is that most people just withdraw their property from sale rather than give it away unless you are desperate to sell a house. But most houses for sale are from people who want the money to go to another house. The big thing is that developers will stop completely and we'll be back to zero new construction rates for the country. Some vulture fund properties etc may get cheaper. The interesting question is what will happen to rents..........

Or a bigger question is who will pay their rent for the duration of the pandemic, when they have an easy out.

cd76

IndieRoar111 wrote: »

After basically walking anyway from a sale at a decent reduction of the asking price over 3 weeks ago, the EA phoned us today saying the seller is willing to play ball at 10k lower than the initial reduced bid. We are still not going for it, will wait and see how the markets performs over the next 6-18 months.

fair play to you. That is the right thing to do.

cd76

davedub2015 wrote: »

Havent heard many reductions in dublin? Sitting on contracts now and going to try knock a few bob off in a few weeks. Think the longer I leave it the better chance we could have

yep, drag it out for as long as you can. When you are getting close.. tell them you are thinking of renting.

cd76

Queasy Tadpole wrote: »

Holy jayzus. :eek:

...only the start of it.!

beauf

Graham wrote: »

+1

We'll have moved from whack-a-mole with 5000 moles and 1 whacker, to whack-a-mole with 200 moles and 12 whackers.

If they couldn't find 5000 the odds are not good of finding 200.

We have an atrocious record for compliance and regulation and enforcement on a vast array of sectors. So low its non existent.

But this forum seems love the idea that "this time it will be different".

cd76

Humilde wrote: »

I think you are right that a crash is imminent. But, like the last crash, what happens is that most people just withdraw their property from sale rather than give it away unless you are desperate to sell a house. But most houses for sale are from people who want the money to go to another house. The big thing is that developers will stop completely and we'll be back to zero new construction rates for the country. Some vulture fund properties etc may get cheaper. The interesting question is what will happen to rents..........

...I agree, rents are already falling significantly due to the Airbnb dumpers. Also Rental supply is very likely to increase significantly in May & June in the 1/2 bed apartments in Dublin. A not insignificant number of juniors in Linkedin/Google/Facebook have gone back to their native countries and a proportion are unlikely to return.
Also student demand is gone and existing students have also left.

Hubertj

cd76 wrote: »

I've stated these as my observations not facts as they are in the future. It is based on my experiences having been through multiple property cycles both in the UK and Ireland. Up to any reader if they want to go ahead and buy now or not. Get clearer day by day that the market is crashing and general consensus that at least a 30% correction is imminent

minimum 30%? Wow. Would you be able to share links to any articles or analysis on this? I haven't read anywhere such a definitive estimate.

beauf

fliball123 wrote: »

Banks will not lend recklessly all they have to do is stop all exemptions and a high % of lending will stop without them having to explain themselves. Already UB, BOI have said they are not entertaining new mortgage apps that is the start of it

Not lend reckless ... again.. like they have done repeatedly in the past.

Do you have link to the the banks websites with their information about new applications? Thanks.

Hubertj

cd76 wrote: »

...I agree, rents are already falling significantly due to the Airbnb dumpers. Also Rental supply is very likely to increase significantly in May & June in the 1/2 bed apartments in Dublin. A not insignificant number of juniors in Linkedin/Google/Facebook have gone back to their native countries and a proportion are unlikely to return.
Also student demand is gone and existing students have also left.

Why are you lying?

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

If they couldn't find 5000 the odds are not good of finding 200.

We have an atrocious record for compliance and regulation and enforcement on a vast array of sectors. So low its non existent.

But this forum seems love the idea that "this time it will be different".

I met 2 people who had received warning letters about airbnb. There is no doubt DCC was building up a database. I know another who was shut down. There are many new hotels and it can be expected that travel will be subdued for a long time. Airbnbs which move to long term will have difficulty getting back to Airbnb.

cd76

Hubertj wrote: »

minimum 30%? Wow. Would you be able to share links to any articles or analysis on this? I haven't read anywhere such a definitive estimate.

Already reports in previous posts provide the evidence of a 10-15% drop after 2 weeks.
One call I've got from an EA last Friday saying they'll look at a 315k bid I previously put in on house asking 370k which had gone Sale Agreed and is now suddenly available. They want to know if I want my bid considered.

That's a 15.5% reduction in 10 days and I told him I am not interested at the moment.

If I thought it was only worth 315k 4 weeks ago (when I bid) I told him why would I think it's even worth that much now !
A long way down to go. No hurry.

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

minimum 30%? Wow. Would you be able to share links to any articles or analysis on this? I haven't read anywhere such a definitive estimate.

Certain people been pumping 40%+ and an immediate hard crash of property and rents for weeks. So it will be definitely be this week, or next week, going to be right one of these weeks. Some people on these forums, have been predicting a crash for 10yrs or more. Like a broken clock at some point they will be right.

You can look to previous crashes and recession to have some indication of timelines and drops. This isn't going to the same as before. It might be worse, it might not be as bad, who knows. Bigger properties have more fat to cut of the price. Cheaper places not so much as margins are slimmer. Last time many builders took them off the market and rented instead of selling. Though they got caught with the amendment to stop mass evictions when they tried quit renting. So maybe they wont go down that route this time who knows.

cd76

Hubertj wrote: »

Why are you lying?

I think its you and other EA's who are not telling truths about what is happening. It is clear from vendors and buyers that we are now seeing the impact of the crisis. You need to just accept that there are troughs and peaks and we are now facing into a trough. It'll be tough for all EAs. The good ones will ride it out.. but as usual the industry will be decimated as it was in '08.

Hubertj

cd76 wrote: »

Already reports in previous posts provide the evidence of a 10-15% drop after 2 weeks.
One call I've got from an EA last Friday saying they'll look at a 315k bid I previously put in on house asking 370k which had gone Sale Agreed and is now suddenly available. They want to know if I want my bid considered.

That's a 15.5% reduction in 10 days and I told him I am not interested at the moment.

If I thought it was only worth 315k 4 weeks ago (when I bid) I told him why would I think it's even worth that much now !
A long way down to go. No hurry.

Ah ok you’re just making up numbers based on hearsay and lies. I’ll educate myself elsewhere

beauf

Claw Hammer wrote: »

I met 2 people who had received warning letters about airbnb. There is no doubt DCC was building up a database. I know another who was shut down. There are many new hotels and it can be expected that travel will be subdued for a long time. Airbnbs which move to long term will have difficulty getting back to Airbnb.

Really knocking it out of the park aren't they...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/council-to-crack-down-on-airbnb-property-owners-who-flout-law-1.4043078


https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0219/1116267-airbnb-dublin-lettings/

It will be interesting what airbnb will do. The current long term rental market wasn't attractive before the crisis, never mind now.
If you do have problem, if you are a tenant or a LL, PRTB, evictions are all stopped. Then you've got to consider the economics of it.

JJJackal

I think a fairer assessment is:

1) the number of sales will plummet
2) it will certainly look like there is a price drop (due to decreased sales and only those who need to sell will sell, buyers will put pressure on sellers to get a deal, less people will be looking so no competition)
3) rents will fall in short term, collapse in air bnb, tourism, college on hold, unemployment etc
4) supply of new houses will decrease as there is no building

5) the unpredictable variable is what will happen in the first few months when the COVID restrictions are over. For example college will start back up, students will need places to live again, tourism will start up again, some air bnbs and short term rentals will start up again. Supply will decrease and demand will increase again. It will take building some time to start up.

There could be a 30% drop in prices, rent may decline drastically

Time will tell us more

Hubertj

cd76 wrote: »

I think its you and other EA's who are not telling truths about what is happening. It is clear from vendors and buyers that we are now seeing the impact of the crisis. You need to just accept that there are troughs and peaks and we are now facing into a trough. It'll be tough for all EAs. The good ones will ride it out.. but as usual the industry will be decimated as it was in '08.

I haven’t stated anything to lie about. Is an EA an estate agent? I’m not a buyer or seller or landlord, just wanted to better understand what might happen to property considering the last recession. You’re basing your ‘estimate’ on boards posters and a few air bnbs? Good luck with that. Maybe there will be the 30% drop you ‘predict’ but you’re just making stuff up.

fliball123

beauf wrote: »

Not lend reckless ... again.. like they have done repeatedly in the past.

Do you have link to the the banks websites with their information about new applications? Thanks.

Just some posts on here saying BOi and a bother of mine was looking to get a mortgage from UB no proof as such if you want it go ask for a mortgage. Apparently there is not even enough staff to conduct new mortgage business with all the businesses looking for loans to operate through the virus

cd76

Hubertj wrote: »

I haven’t stated anything to lie about. Is an EA an estate agent? I’m not a buyer or seller or landlord, just wanted to better understand what might happen to property considering the last recession. You’re basing your ‘estimate’ on boards posters and a few air bnbs? Good luck with that. Maybe there will be the 30% drop you ‘predict’ but you’re just making stuff up.

Please don't engage with me. If you want to accuse people of lying please engage with some teenagers on Instagram where that behaviour might be acceptable. You clearly are deluded and oblivious to the crash going on around you. I have highlighted specific areas where 2 weeks into this there is clear evidence of 15% reductions. Best of luck.

fliball123

cd76 wrote: »

Please don't engage with me. If you want to accuse people of lying please engage with some teenagers on Instagram where that behaviour might be acceptable. You clearly are deluded and oblivious to the crash going on around you. I have highlighted specific areas where 2 weeks into this there is clear evidence of 15% reductions. Best of luck.

He is right in a sense you I or anyone else can not say whats going to happen as it has never happened before. If any idiot on here wants advice for buying or selling property this is the last place i would look , too many vested interests

JJJackal

cd76 wrote: »

Please don't engage with me. If you want to accuse people of lying please engage with some teenagers on Instagram where that behaviour might be acceptable. You clearly are deluded and oblivious to the crash going on around you. I have highlighted specific areas where 2 weeks into this there is clear evidence of 15% reductions. Best of luck.

I dont think a couple of examples in 2 weeks proves anything

Time will tell us more

cd76

fliball123 wrote: »

He is right in a sense you I or anyone else can not say whats going to happen as it has never happened before. If any idiot on here wants advice for buying or selling property this is the last place i would look , too many vested interests

Correct, that why I am stating observations based on my experiences and current engagement with EAs who are calling me looking to resurrect previous "unsuccessful" bids.

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

I haven’t stated anything to lie about. Is an EA an estate agent? I’m not a buyer or seller or landlord, just wanted to better understand what might happen to property considering the last recession. You’re basing your ‘estimate’ on boards posters and a few air bnbs? Good luck with that. Maybe there will be the 30% drop you ‘predict’ but you’re just making stuff up.

Give it up. you'll get nowhere.

If an "investor" was trying to buy a few weeks ago, before the crisis broke. At the peak of the market, and a market that was already softening. They aren't much of an investor.

If someone was going to buy their ideal long term house in a ideal location where the opportunity doesn't come up very often, and they will be there for 20+yrs they might have reason to proceed.

Any investor or someone trying to get on the ladder, accept that you'll have to wait a few years before trying again. if buying low, selling high is something you want to do. But thats been true for the past 3 or so years. I refer you the point above.

cd76

JJJackal wrote: »

I dont think a couple of examples in 2 weeks proves anything

Time will tell us more

..it certainly will !!

Claw Hammer

beauf wrote: »

Really knocking it out of the park aren't they...

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/council-to-crack-down-on-airbnb-property-owners-who-flout-law-1.4043078


https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0219/1116267-airbnb-dublin-lettings/

It will be interesting what airbnb will do. The current long term rental market wasn't attractive before the crisis, never mind now.
If you do have problem, if you are a tenant or a LL, PRTB, evictions are all stopped. Then you've got to consider the economics of it.

Planning enforcement is a slow process, however there is little doubt that they are identifying properties and warning the owners. The next phase would be caught cases. What's more interesting is that the operators were leasing apartments from the owners and then operating Air B&B may stop paying the rent and hand the keys back to the owners. That would cause a permanent contraction in the number of units involved in Air B&B.

fliball123

cd76 wrote: »

Correct, that why I am stating observations based on my experiences and current engagement with EAs who are calling me looking to resurrect previous "unsuccessful" bids.

Once again you have no experience at this as we have never had a pandemic like this so your experience is null and void and it reckless trying to tell people to sell or people to buy. If you have FACT put it up and let people make up their own mind. Well I have had a few failed bids on properties over the last 6 months and guess what no EA has rang me back. So how can you tell what is the norm?