CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Strazdas · 07-04-2020 01:10PM

Danzy wrote: »

That's supposition.

No, we have the contact tracing numbers from the HSE. They were able to identify large numbers of Irish people who had visited infected areas and returned to Ireland.

Cases of tourists or visitors to Ireland infecting Irish people would be much, much smaller (limited interaction with the locals) and would go down as 'unknown' community transmission.

Rob A. Bank · 07-04-2020 01:11PM

I believe the containment measures here may be relaxed once it is obvious the number of cases is falling. That will be made far easier if the NI government does what Paisley did in 2001 during the foot and mouth epidemic... recognize that the threat is to us all and cooperate to defend the island as a whole.

If every case which occurs after that, and it's contacts, can be isolated... we are in control of the situation again. ie. no community spread.

The virus needs humans to continue it's spread... no infected humans for around 14 days = the virus dies.

If that stage is ever reached...allowing the continuous top-ups of spreaders from the island next door is absolute lunacy IMHO.

At least that is what I hope happens.

Danzy · 07-04-2020 01:11PM

The news is positive but still going up, it's being controlled, they aren't going to go back to square one over 2 weeks.

The lockdown is causing economic damage but it is less than if there was no lockdown.

People would not continue shopping, working etc if the hospital system was crashed and they could get a widespread virus that would have they drown in their own lung secretions.

paddythere · 07-04-2020 01:12PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

If, as is looking increasingly likely, there is to be a relaxation of the current restrictions, the Govt. should consider bringing Sunday's announcement forward to Friday to allow people to enjoy the BH weekend and perhaps allow some small businesses to start trading again.

Na, we are looking at maintaining this until at least early may. A lot will also depend on how other european countries are doing too

wakka12 · 07-04-2020 01:13PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

People forget this entire pandemic started from a single case in Wuhan.

It went from that single case to 1.3 million cases (conservative estimate) in 6 months.

Its a minimum of that in Italy alone. Probably 10-20 million worldwide, who knows how many more cases and deaths there are in for example China and Iran. Also its only a little over 3 months since it was detected in Wuhan, not 6

Curious_Case · 07-04-2020 01:15PM

paddythere wrote: »

Na, we are looking at maintaining this until at least early may. A lot will also depend on how other european countries are doing too

Yes, I think so too

To be honest I have a vested interest in pubs opening as soon as possible but I think it will be wise in the long term to "take a hit" for the entire month of April

facehugger99 · 07-04-2020 01:16PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Too soon I'd say

Some let-up after the MAY bank holiday might be realistic, followed quickly by more relaxations of restrictions if numbers stay stable.

Up until a couple of days ago I would have agreed - the inclination of Govt is to be over-cautious.

But, I'm actually more optimistic that we will see some of the restrictions lifted on Sunday.

wakka12 · 07-04-2020 01:17PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

If, as is looking increasingly likely, there is to be a relaxation of the current restrictions, the Govt. should consider bringing Sunday's announcement forward to Friday to allow people to enjoy the BH weekend and perhaps allow some small businesses to start trading again.

Theres still several hundred new cases being announced in Ireland daily. Getting a bit ahead of yourself..

mandrake04 · 07-04-2020 01:17PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

If, as is looking increasingly likely, there is to be a relaxation of the current restrictions, the Govt. should consider bringing Sunday's announcement forward to Friday to allow people to enjoy the BH weekend and perhaps allow some small businesses to start trading again.

I can’t see any relaxation of restrictions until September, they need to work on getting the numbers down.... the true numbers not the BS from 1500 tests per day swabbed 2 weeks ago.

tigger123 · 07-04-2020 01:17PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Up until a couple of days ago I would have agreed - the inclination of Govt is to be over-cautious.

But, I'm actually more optimistic that we will see some of the restrictions lifted on Sunday.

Again, what are you basing this one? What is signalling to you that the restrictions will begin to be lifted?

kilkenny31 · 07-04-2020 01:18PM

758 dead in England. Skynews

07-04-2020 01:18PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

Up until a couple of days ago I would have agreed - the inclination of Govt is to be over-cautious.

But, I'm actually more optimistic that we will see some of the restrictions lifted on Sunday.

From the poster who stated 370 new cases yesterday was a "tiny" figure. Dream on.

stephenjmcd · 07-04-2020 01:19PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

I can’t see any relaxation of restrictions until September, they need to work on getting the numbers down.... the true numbers not the BS from 1500 tests per day swabbed 2 weeks ago.

Things aren't going to be lifted this week, we'll have these restrictions until the end of the month.
But September is another extreme of the scale.

No chance

07-04-2020 01:20PM

ifElseThen wrote: »

Rudimentary look at rip.ie using incremental id

01 Mar - 30 March 2018 - 2518 deaths
01 Mar - 30 March 2018 - 2740 deaths
01 Mar - 30 March 2019 - 2636 deaths
01 Mar - 07 March 2020 - 767 deaths

Using that daily average for Mar 2020, we'd see around 3287 deaths so an approx 20 - 30% increase in deaths compared to last few years.

7 out of 46 residents in my old man's nursing home have died in the last month, 6 in the last 11 days.

Why only take the 1st to the 7th? When I do the same for the same date range 01 Mar to 30 Mar 2020 I get 3735. Which I did not expect, as I honestly expected to find there was no increase near as large as you were saying.
A caution with RIP data is we don't know was there any driver in increased uptake in use of the site this year. Maybe the fact that funerals are restricted has resulted in more people posting notices. Also, there are often more that 1 record for the same individual as someone may be from Cavan for example but living in Kildare, the notice may be posted in both counties. But on the face of it, this looks like more than just a statistical anomaly

Snow Garden · 07-04-2020 01:21PM

paddythere wrote: »

Na, we are looking at maintaining this until at least early may. A lot will also depend on how other european countries are doing too

The public have already accepted that the current restrictions will remain until at least May 1. I think it will be 2 weeks beyond that myself before we see some movement. Hard to say though, the numbers this week will be crucial.

weisses · 07-04-2020 01:21PM

threeball wrote: »

They also say awake and breathing normally which implies he was sedated at one stage.

Can you explain the mental gymnastics used to reach that conclusion ?

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 07-04-2020 01:21PM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Smoker, drinker, high pressure job... Would be in the candidates for high risk, I would imagine.

I don't know if being in a high pressure job would have much effect. Stress tends to erroneously be bandied about as a cause for many ailments with little proof. Smoking, perhaps, as it affects the lungs. Drinking... I don't know. Overall. I wouldn't think he was particularly high risk.

Strazdas · 07-04-2020 01:22PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

I can’t see any relaxation of restrictions until September, they need to work on getting the numbers down.... the true numbers not the BS from 1500 tests per day swabbed 2 weeks ago.

It would be very hard to justify a total lockdown in a scenario where there are only a few cases circulating in the country.

The situation in early March was very clear : rapid exponential growth of Covid-19 and the major risk of tens of thousands (or even hundreds of thousands) being infected within a few short weeks.

The situation in mid to late May might be radically different.

facehugger99 · 07-04-2020 01:22PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

I can’t see any relaxation of restrictions until September, they need to work on getting the numbers down.... the true numbers not the BS from 1500 tests per day swabbed 2 weeks ago.

Really? - That's hilarious.

tobefrank321 · 07-04-2020 01:23PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Theres still several hundred new cases being announced in Ireland daily. Getting a bit ahead of yourself..

Those are not new cases though. The majority were probably infected 2-3 weeks ago. Many are probably cured now. Realistically unless the majority report symptoms, get tested within the hour and get results within the day, then we have no clue what the trends are today, be they up or down and from that its impossible to decide whether to lift restrictions or not.

Lwaker. · 07-04-2020 01:23PM

Politicians will all be slow playing this watching their legacy

Ninthlife · 07-04-2020 01:24PM

Got my better half to give me a haircut......lets just say thankfully I am not in the office for the next couple of weeks.

:D

next time they need to make barbers an essential service:pac:

devnull · 07-04-2020 01:24PM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

758 dead in England. Skynews

854 UK wide - probably overstated, due to weekend effect, like yesterday and Sunday's figures were understated for same reason.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 07-04-2020 01:24PM

lbj666 wrote: »

The anti vaxxers have either doubled down and gone full on conspiracy theory nutjobs or gone really really quiet.

There's a few groups that have really quietened down the last few weeks. I saw an article in Vice where people who were transitioning gender were complaining that their "life-saving" surgery had been put off for a while. It did NOT go down well. I know somebody whose cancer surgery has been postponed, FFS.

the.red.baron · 07-04-2020 01:26PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Those are not new cases though. The majority were probably been infected 2-3 weeks ago. Many are probably cured now. Realistically unless the majority report symptoms, get tested within the hour and get results within the day, then we have no clue what the trends are today, be they up or down and from that its impossible to decide whether to lift restrictions or not.

deaths and ICU numbers are the trends that matter

Snow Garden · 07-04-2020 01:27PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

Deaths and ICU numbers are the trends that matter

Correct they are the only stats worth anything now. The testing and confirmation stats are too old/flaky.

07-04-2020 01:30PM

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

Cue pasta and toilet roll sales again by the greedy swine that showed their true colours the last time.

Who were those idiots anyway? I think it was the Thursday when it was announced schools would close. Has any poster here admitted to being a toilet roll hoarder? There has to be a few.

ifElseThen · 07-04-2020 01:31PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why only take the 1st to the 7th? When I do the same for the same date range 01 Mar to 30 Mar 2020 I get 3735. Which I did not expect, as I honestly expected to find there was no increase near as large as you were saying.
A caution with RIP data is we don't know was there any driver in increased uptake in use of the site this year. Maybe the fact that funerals are restricted has resulted in more people posting notices. Also, there are often more that 1 record for the same individual as someone may be from Cavan for example but living in Kildare, the notice may be posted in both counties. But on the face of it, this looks like more than just a statistical anomaly

Typo, those should say April, updated there. Looking at rip, even for dual entries it only uses a single id. I based my count off those IDs, not the no of records.

Ah yes it's a rough guide I guess as not all deaths would be posted on rip.ie.

Wibbs · 07-04-2020 01:32PM

gabeeg wrote: »

I think they were basing everything on what they knew about the flu.

It's like it took them completely by surprise. Asleep at the wheel.

G, I would be in full agreement if the HSE were saying this kinda thing in January, but that video was from March, when far more was known and every health authority was saying this is no flu. Yet the HSE expert in this couldn't even get the basic Covid19 symptoms right. Watch the video. He says symptoms like runny nose and sore throat, two symptoms that only present in tiny percentages and that has been specifically known and published widely since early January. Indeed in general the advice elsewhere was that if you did have a snotty nose it probably wasn't covid19. You'd swear he was talking about a head cold.

Never mind the asymptomatic spread which was already known too. The first British "superspreader" was in late January, by mid February German authorities had found one of their superspreaders who was asymptomatic. In Korea they found more again before that. Yet in early March our HSE was advising that if you lived with a potential Covid contact, that unless they had symptoms like a runny nose and sore throat[facepalm] you should live your life as normally as possible.

is_that_so wrote: »

The biggest mystery of all of this is why they haven't called on you to rescue them from their failings!

I'm a thundering gobsh1te at best, but when even a thundering gobhs1te like me can read and understand the basics before the HSE appear to, then I dunno what to say about certain aspects of the same HSE.

pc7 wrote: »

I have friends who traveled back to Australia last week, they were made quarantine in a hotel for 2 weeks before going to their house. This is what we need to start doing, the hotels are empty, use them.

Yup and basic temperature checks at ports, but it won't happen unless the WHO suggest it. Independent thought is thin enough on the ground.

Doctors room ghost · 07-04-2020 01:34PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Who were those idiots anyway? I think it was the Thursday when it was announced schools would close. Has any poster here admitted to being a toilet roll hoarder? There has to be a few.

They have since gone to ground like a fox.
They’re out there though.they walk among us.bellys full of pasta on them

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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