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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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Comments

  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    sabat wrote: »
    Remember, when the hotels reopen they'll be selling 4* rooms in good locations for about €50 or €60 just to keep the lights on and these are the rates you'll be competing against. This will probably be the case until summer 2021, or it could be the new normal for long after that, seeing as there was a glut of new hotels built or being built recently. Unless you have a unique or very well located house it might be more profitable to just get regular tenants, especially when you factor in vacancies, cleaning, maintenance, assorted airbnb hassles etc.

    Very true, but STLetting is an emotive subject for a verity of reasons. From my own Airbnb experience, guests tend to be families/friends who want the benefits a whole property provides. I was in New York last year, with teenagers, an apartment was better and more practice than 4 hotel rooms. So when tourism returns, there will be a market for STLs.

    The reality is that new builds have a far greater effect on supply. Many developments currently under construction in Dublin are forward financed, the financing depends on receiving a certain minimum level of rental income. Right now that building has stopped so supply, much needed will be further delayed. During the last recession, people emigrated to get work, with joblessness rising in virtually every country, particularly the traditional markets like the US, UK and Australia, there is no place to go. So, same population, same low supply., and the likelihood of more small LLs selling. Makes STLs pretty insignificant in the greater scheme of things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Will any LL's contact their tenants to try and agree a new (lower) deal before the tenants call them with a potentially bigger reduction?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    I'd anticipate there will be almost no tourism for the remainder of the year and what bit we do get is going to be nowhere near enough to sustain most STLs.

    When the tourist market does eventually return, most of the current STLs will be long gone effectively giving local authorities a very manageable clean slate when it comes to controlling new entrants to the STL market.

    Graham, lots of hotels won’t open until the numbers of tourists increase. People can go online today and book an Airbnb for later in the year. I have had loads of cancellations, but I’ve still got a few bookings from September onwards.

    Existing entrants can stay on Airbnb. You can block/suspend bookings if you want.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Many developments currently under construction in Dublin are forward financed, the financing depends on receiving a certain minimum level of rental income. Right now that building has stopped so supply, much needed will be further delayed.

    There is also a number of developments that are about to hit the market with now no chance of receiving the rents they might have expected to get 6 weeks ago. Are they simply just going to leave them empty with no rent roll from them? That might be fine if it was just going to be a few weeks but now it is generally excepted that this will go on for longer than this.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    There is also a number of developments that are about to hit the market with now no chance of receiving the rents they might have expected to get 6 weeks ago. Are they simply just going to leave them empty with no rent roll from them? That might be fine if it was just going to be a few weeks but now it is generally excepted that this will go on for longer than this.

    According to the finance expert on the Last Word, there is a development in the IFSC with one third occupancy, the owners preferred to leave units empty than rent at a lower price. Posted about it while it was on, on another thread, it should be up on a podcast. But I’m not going to look back through all my posts to find the date. I suspect most big developers will wait to see how this plays out. But again, time will tell, at the moment a lot of those developments are far from complete.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    According to the finance expert on the Last Word, there is a development in the IFSC with one third occupancy, the owners preferred to leave units empty than rent at a lower price. Posted about it while it was on, on another thread, it should be up on a podcast. But I’m not going to look back through all my posts to find the date.

    Capital Dock was over 50% empty after a year (unsurprising given the astronomical rents they were looking at). Another development down there listed that all 2 beds could have a month free...well before Covid hit and still the same (obviously). There are other developments further afield which also look like they are not shifting in any meaningful manner....their backers must have deep pockets...


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Capital Dock was over 50% empty after a year (unsurprising given the astronomical rents they were looking at). Another development down there listed that all 2 beds could have a month free...well before Covid hit and still the same (obviously). There are other developments further afield which also look like they are not shifting in any meaningful manner....their backers must have deep pockets...

    In a lot of cases they are institutional investment firms, deep pockets 2 months ago, squeaky bum time now. But they are far more likely to wait it out than small time LLs would have been, had so many of them not left the market. A few ads with lower prices today is not a quantitative indicator of market collapse, it will take another couple of months before the true effect can be measured. A general downward push on rents may be counteracted by a further reduction in supply if LLs sell off investment properties.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Graham, lots of hotels won’t open until the numbers of tourists increase. People can go online today and book an Airbnb for later in the year. I have had loads of cancellations, but I’ve still got a few bookings from September onwards.

    I suspect many AirBnB hosts are the same.

    I'd guess many of those haven't cancelled yet as the extenuating circumstances cancellation policy only applies to stays up to May 31st (for now).

    I don't envy any hosts dependant on a handful of bookings 6 months from now, most couldn't survive as evidenced by the sudden rush back to long-term rentals.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    A general downward push on rents may be counteracted by a further reduction in supply if LLs sell off investment properties.

    Even if they do it is unlikely to massively change the supply/demand dynamic...if the place for sale ends up being bought as an investment then no net change, if it purchased by someone who was renting then it is one less place to rent but also one less person looking to rent.


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  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,100 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    https://www.hospitalityireland.com/hotel/dalata-ceo-expects-covid-19-related-restrictions-last-september-94385
    McCann said that he believes that 2020 is the year to "make you survive", 2021 will be about beginning to "build back the business" and 2022 will likely be the year when "some levels of normality" are regained "in terms of visitor traffic and numbers".

    The CEO of Dalata Hotel Group said that he expected it would be 2022 before some levels of normality come back. If that is the case then you would imagine it would be the same for short term lets over the next 2 years as well.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Graham wrote: »
    I suspect many AirBnB hosts are the same.

    I'd guess many of those haven't cancelled yet as the extenuating circumstances cancellation policy only applies to stays up to May 31st (for now).

    I don't envy any hosts dependant on a handful of bookings 6 months from now, most couldn't survive as evidenced by the sudden rush back to long-term rentals.

    Horses for courses. We’ll know in 6 months.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Even if they do it is unlikely to massively change the supply/demand dynamic...if the place for sale ends up being bought as an investment then no net change, if it purchased by someone who was renting then it is one less place to rent but also one less person looking to rent.

    Do you think there are a lot of investors buying one off properties for rental?


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Do you think there are a lot of investors buying one off properties for rental?

    If an avalanche of them come on the market then the sale price will plummet thereby making them more attractive to one off investors (even though rents are dropping).

    I doubt anyone will buy to leave them empty so wherever they ultimately end up will not massively change the dynamic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,073 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If I owned an airbnb/STL property I would 100% be looking to get tenants in on a 12 month contract right now. The tourist market might bounce back somewhat by August this year. But its likely to be destroyed again in October/November for 6 months when Corona comes back for the winter. You're looking at at most 2~ months of probably nowhere near normal summer occupancy, and then possibly nothing else until April/May 2021.

    At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,139 ✭✭✭✭Caranica


    Blut2 wrote: »
    .
    At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.

    Nope. The property would not be free as the tenants would have Part IV rights entitling them to live there for 5 more years with limited termination options.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    If an avalanche of them come on the market then the sale price will plummet thereby making them more attractive to one off investors (even though rents are dropping).

    I doubt anyone will buy to leave them empty so wherever they ultimately end up will not massively change the dynamic.

    That’s a lot of assumptions.

    You understand, that at a time when rents were at a historic high, lots of LLs were selling?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Caranica wrote: »
    Nope. The property would not be free as the tenants would have Part IV rights entitling them to live there for 5 more years with limited termination options.

    absent many realistic or palatable alternatives, I suspect that's the most likely scenario for most previous STL properties.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Blut2 wrote: »
    If I owned an airbnb/STL property I would 100% be looking to get tenants in on a 12 month contract right now. The tourist market might bounce back somewhat by August this year. But its likely to be destroyed again in October/November for 6 months when Corona comes back for the winter. You're looking at at most 2~ months of probably nowhere near normal summer occupancy, and then possibly nothing else until April/May 2021.

    At least with tenants on a 12 month contract theres guaranteed income coming in every month. And the property would free up again just in time for summer 2021, if the tourism market is swinging back to normal by then.

    Free up again in time for the summer? Do you know how difficult it could be to get your property back for the summer market?


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Dav010 wrote: »
    You understand, that at a time when rents were at a historic high, lots of LLs were selling?

    Property prices were also doing well which made that decision easier at the time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,073 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Free up again in time for the summer? Do you know how difficult it could be to get your property back for the summer market?

    Rather less difficult than trying to maintain any sort of tourist occupancy rates for the next 12 months I'd imagine.

    My family has rented out properties where I told any prospective incoming tenants the property would be changing use in 12/18/X months, and I would be expecting them to leave then. The tenants in every case were thankful for the advanced notice, planned around it because they had plenty of time to, and moved out on the forewarned date no problem.

    The vast majority of tenants are reasonable adults, if you treat them that way they'll treat you the same.


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  • Posts: 18,749 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I have an Airbnb house that I am just going to wait it out with, and put it up on Airbnb again when things open again later in the year. If rents are falling, the benefits of Airbnb will be even more obvious.

    There won't be any airbnb market this year, maybe towards the end if next year.
    Travel & holidays will be very different for the next 18 months at least.
    Good for you if you can leave it empty


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Rather less difficult than trying to maintain any sort of tourist occupancy rates for the next 12 months I’d imagine.

    Evicting a tenant can take up to a year, and you can only terminate a Part 4 tenancy under certain circumstances. So you would be wrong, I would prefer a property to be empty than spend a year and thousands of Euro evicting a tenant. I would suspect there is a heightened risk of rents not being paid at the moment, and we are going to have to see what way payment of the rolled up rents during the freeze work out, so evictions could go up in the latter half of the year.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,280 ✭✭✭✭Eric Cartman


    surely if we only allow 4% increases we should be only allowing 4% reductions.

    or are laws only ok when landlords get shafted ?


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    surely if we only allow 4% increases we should be only allowing 4% reductions.

    or are laws only ok when landlords get shafted ?

    No votes in that one I’d say Eric.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,238 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    I'd say the sale prices will take a knock as people get out. Most of these will be bought by people taking the opportunity to get a place in town. This won't result in a reduction in rent (no increases either) for a while.


  • Registered Users Posts: 953 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    You understand, that at a time when rents were at a historic high, lots of LLs were selling?

    I do and a colleague was one of them. Interestingly he sold to some who had been renting.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    I do and a colleague was one of them. Interestingly he sold to some who had been renting.

    Best result possible.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,073 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Dav010 wrote: »
    Evicting a tenant can take up to a year, and you can only terminate a Part 4 tenancy under certain circumstances. So you would be wrong, I would prefer a property to be empty than spend a year and thousands of Euro evicting a tenant. I would suspect there is a heightened risk of rents not being paid at the moment, and we are going to have to see what way payment of the rolled up rents during the freeze work out, so evictions could go up in the latter half of the year.

    To quote myself, since you apparently didn't read the full post:
    Blut2 wrote: »
    Rather less difficult than trying to maintain any sort of tourist occupancy rates for the next 12 months I'd imagine.

    My family has rented out properties where I told any prospective incoming tenants the property would be changing use in 12/18/X months, and I would be expecting them to leave then. The tenants in every case were thankful for the advanced notice, planned around it because they had plenty of time to, and moved out on the forewarned date no problem.

    The vast majority of tenants are reasonable adults, if you treat them that way they'll treat you the same.

    You wouldn't need to go through an eviction process at all if you simply treated your tenants decently and were honest from the outset.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Blut2 wrote: »
    To quote myself, since you apparently didn't read the full post:



    You wouldn't need to go through an eviction process at all if you simply treated your tenants decently and were honest from the outset.

    I did read your post, my reply covered the unintended consequence of a tenant refusing to leave at the end of the term. Most errant tenants look, and sound, like good tenants the day the lease is signed. Lots of posters on here treated their tenants decently, then recount the nightmare when they stop paying rent and/or refuse to leave when they are supposed to.

    You might expect them to leave, legally though, they can tell you to take a hike.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭DubCount


    Blut2 wrote: »
    You wouldn't need to go through an eviction process at all if you simply treated your tenants decently and were honest from the outset.

    Sorry, but that's just not true. There are lots of decent landlords who treated their tenants well, and were rewarded with a non-paying / antisocial / overholding tenants that they had to evict.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,073 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Dav010 wrote: »
    I did read your post, my reply covered the unintended consequence of a tenant refusing to leave at the end of the term. Most errant tenants look, and sound, like good tenants the day the lease is signed. Lots of posters on here treated their tenants decently, then recount the nightmare when they stop paying rent and/or refuse to leave when they are supposed to.

    You might expect them to leave, legally though, they can tell you to take a hike.

    Landlords posting here are of course going to post a lot of problem stories about tenants. For the same reason tenants posting here post a lot of problem stories about landlords. Because its a forum where people go to ask advice about accommodation, its going to get the problem/unusual cases - not the mundane everyday ones where everything works out.

    But on both sides the overwhelming majority of both landlords and tenants are reasonable, normal people who aren't out to screw anyone over.

    Letting a property sit idle for the best part of a year, receiving absolutely no income from it, because you're afraid of getting one of the possibly 1% of problem tenants seems insane to me from financial risk/reward point of view. But its your lack of income.
    DubCount wrote: »
    Sorry, but that's just not true. There are lots of decent landlords who treated their tenants well, and were rewarded with a non-paying / antisocial / overholding tenants that they had to evict.

    Statistically its completely true. The vast, vast majority of tenancies in Ireland do not end in problematic, drawn out evictions.


  • Registered Users Posts: 155 ✭✭dowhatyoulove


    Place beside me is up for rent I noticed on daft this week for exactly the same as our rent - don’t think some landlords are noticing the crisis outside their front doors.

    My brother got given notice as well during the month and they managed to secure another place but I found it odd the landlord gave them notice during a pandemic.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Place beside me is up for rent I noticed on daft this week for exactly the same as our rent - don’t think some landlords are noticing the crisis outside their front doors.

    My brother got given notice as well during the month and they managed to secure another place but I found it odd the landlord gave them notice during a pandemic.

    Depends on whether your neighbour finds someone to rent the property. Keep us posted.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,573 ✭✭✭WhiteMemento9


    Place beside me is up for rent I noticed on daft this week for exactly the same as our rent - don’t think some landlords are noticing the crisis outside their front doors.

    My brother got given notice as well during the month and they managed to secure another place but I found it odd the landlord gave them notice during a pandemic.

    People putting properties onto the market are going to do so at the current rate in the hopes of snagging someone quickly. It will take a while when things are not shifting for people to start reducing rents to try move them and then like dominoes they will fall.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Blut2 wrote: »

    You wouldn't need to go through an eviction process at all if you simply treated your tenants decently and were honest from the outset.


    I don't want to sound smart here but that's delusional, you can treat a tenant as nicely as you can, send Christmas cards and keep it friendly, if they have it in them they will still screw you. From personal experience


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    The Daft rental report published on Friday says to expect significant falls in rent due to the extraordinary shock to housing demand. Oddly the report wasn't widely covered by Irish media and the few articles that did cover it did not quote the words "significant", "falls" and "rents".

    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    The Daft rental report published on Friday says to expect significant falls in rent due to the extraordinary shock to housing demand. Oddly the report wasn't widely covered by Irish media and the few articles that did cover it did not quote the words "significant", "falls" and "rents".

    https://www.daft.ie/report?fr=touch

    You are cherry picking a few words from the report.

    “Despite all its complexities, housing is still a case of supply and demand. It is clear that COVID-19 represents a dramatic contraction in demand for owner-occupied properties. Households will be far less likely to enter into a 30-year mortgage contract, for example, if they are unsure what their 3-, 6- and 12-month prospects are for being employed and for what they'll earn. Things may be different for rental properties. Clearly, unemployment will soar - but if government steps in to guarantee incomes and prevent evictions, then there may be far less change in the rental market than on the sales side.”


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Blut2 wrote: »
    You wouldn't need to go through an eviction process at all if you simply treated your tenants decently and were honest from the outset.

    Regardless of how honest you are with your tenants, the law remains. After 6 months a tenant gains the protection of a Part 4 tenancy and the rights afforded by a Part 4 tenancy.

    This includes the right to continue the tenancy other than for a limited set of circumstances.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    The idea being that people will obey these laws even though you can see most of these have been ignoring them for a couple of years already. That the mechanism for dealing with them PRTB and similar which were so slow and backlogged before the crisis. Are unlikely to be functional for some time, and then even more backlogged and even slower.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Blut2 wrote: »
    ...Statistically its completely true. The vast, vast majority of tenancies in Ireland do not end in problematic, drawn out evictions.

    What statistics show that tenants who are treated well don't cause long protected evictions?

    All the stats show is there aren't many evictions relative to the number of rentals. Unless there's some other way of interpreting this?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    My brother just got a new place not far from where he is at the moment. Its much bigger, brighter and modern. The rent is €100 pm cheaoer than he is paying at the moment. He moves in next month and just gave his current landlord notice. Current landlord was happy to accept as he says he was thinking of selling anyway.

    My own prediction is that the rent and higher supply will be short term. Lots of landlordswho have tenants who left the country or went home have been added to the market, but it wont be long before all of these are sucked up. There really arent THAT many when you talk about real numbers as opposed to percentages.

    And once this COVID thing is over that supply will be gone. People will be moving to the cheaper ones as fast as they can while they are there, but there is a finite supply.

    And I dont see any new landlords coming into the market in Ireland for a hell of a long time unless they are REITS. And REITS are expensive.

    So if you are planning on moving, I suggest do it now while there is some overhang to be had at cheaper rents.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    Blut2 wrote: »
    ....
    Letting a property sit idle for the best part of a year, receiving absolutely no income from it, because you're afraid of getting one of the possibly 1% of problem tenants seems insane to me from financial risk/reward point of view. But its your lack of income.
    ...

    I assume if they think they'll make more money when the market returns than being locked into a substantially lower rent if they lock into that now. I assume a lot moved to Airbnb in the first place, to make more money but also not to be locked into these rules.

    If they want to An Airbnb can sell up immediately. A LL with a part 4 tenant might take up to a year at best to get the property back to sell. Obvious which one is the better option, if you wanted to sell.

    They are also not locked into any previous rent cap. So if another landlord buys the airbnb they set a new rent. Buying a property with existing rent cap especially if it's way below market value. You can't rise it.

    The Airbnb will have made vastly more money than a regular rental. They are far more likely to have funds to weather this crisis than a regular rental.

    ...Maybe...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    beauf wrote: »
    I assume if they think they'll make more money when the market returns than being locked into a substantially lower rent if they lock into that now. I assume a lot moved to Airbnb in the first place, to make more money but also not to be locked into these rules.

    If they want to An Airbnb can sell up immediately. A LL with a part 4 tenant might take up to a year at best to get the property back to sell. Obvious which one is the better option, if you wanted to sell.

    They are also not locked into any previous rent cap. So if another landlord buys the airbnb they set a new rent. Buying a property with existing rent cap especially if it's way below market value. You can't rise it.

    The Airbnb will have made vastly more money than a regular rental. They are far more likely to have funds to weather this crisis than a regular rental.

    ...Maybe...


    I agree with everything you have said. The biggest issue being trying to sell a property with a rent cap on it. If I was buying to invest, and I wouldnt even dream of doing that, I wouldnt be buying any property with a rent cap on it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,068 ✭✭✭MarkY91


    Graham wrote: »
    Talk of AirBnB is all a bit academic in the current environment.

    I suspect that will remain the case for at least the remainder of 2020.

    My guess; AirBnB hosts are about to see several years of healthy profits completely wiped out. Hundreds of ex-STLs will be returned to residential use.

    Karma.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,092 ✭✭✭DubCount


    beauf wrote: »
    What statistics show that tenants who are treated well don't cause long protected evictions?

    All the stats show is there aren't many evictions relative to the number of rentals. Unless there's some other way of interpreting this?

    Not surprisingly, the RTB are not keen to highlight this, but you can extrapolate from their data. At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    The range of timescales that the open cases will require will obviously vary from the ones that will accept an RTB judgement, to the ones that will go through appeals and court and require the bailiffs to call around.

    Of course, these stats exclude all the landlords who pay off rogue tenants to leave quietly, and the ones that just leave and wreck the place for which no RTB case is launched.

    All this shows that the majority of tenants are good upstanding citizens that pay their way and play by the rules. However, there are sufficient rogues out there to make it a worrying risk. When the cost impact of coming across a rogue that will take 18 months to evict and wreck your house/apartment, the costs of lost rent, legal fees and repairs can easily reach €30k or more.

    Its the reason I left the business last year. Its the reason landlords are leaving the business in spite of high rents. Its even the reason for high rents. It is not just a statistical anomaly.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I don't disagree with you. But that wasn't the question I asked in fairness.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    DubCount wrote: »
    At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    A case does not equal an eviction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭Browney7


    DubCount wrote: »
    Not surprisingly, the RTB are not keen to highlight this, but you can extrapolate from their data. At end of Q3 2019, there were 310,780 tenancies registered. In their last 12 months, there were 3,792 cases opened with the RTB relating to overholding and/or unpaid rent or challenging eviction notices (i.e. the beginning of a problem eviction). That represents 1.22% of all tenancies in any one year. If you take a typical landlord in the business for 20 years, that's almost a 1 in 4 chance of having to commence an RTB case in relation to eviction.

    The range of timescales that the open cases will require will obviously vary from the ones that will accept an RTB judgement, to the ones that will go through appeals and court and require the bailiffs to call around.

    Of course, these stats exclude all the landlords who pay off rogue tenants to leave quietly, and the ones that just leave and wreck the place for which no RTB case is launched.

    All this shows that the majority of tenants are good upstanding citizens that pay their way and play by the rules. However, there are sufficient rogues out there to make it a worrying risk. When the cost impact of coming across a rogue that will take 18 months to evict and wreck your house/apartment, the costs of lost rent, legal fees and repairs can easily reach €30k or more.

    Its the reason I left the business last year. Its the reason landlords are leaving the business in spite of high rents. Its even the reason for high rents. It is not just a statistical anomaly.

    Not fully sure what source you are getting your dispute stats from but It's hardly fair to cite validity of termination disputes as being a wholly bad tenant when the RTB 2018 report finds that 42% of NOTs were actually invalid.

    Also, many applications to the RTB cite more than one reason so again, aggregating the reasons doesn't equal number of tenancies. What's the average length of a tenancy in Ireland -3 or 4 years?

    If the sale proceeds for your properties were 30% lower would you have left the business? It's a fair reason to say tenant risk was a motivator in you selling up but the strong market prices achievable were also a significant motivator I'm sure.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,003 ✭✭✭handlemaster


    Shame on you. You are a major part of the property problem in our society.

    I hope we will soon have a government here that will restrict or even better yet ban Airbnb completely, just like these places:

    https://www.passiveairbnb.com/top-cities-and-countries-where-airbnb-is-illegal-or-restricted/

    It's their property do with it as they like.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 22,648 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    See you have one side saying the stats are the tip of the iceberg, the figures are a lot higher.

    The other side says oh no the stats can be discarded because a case isn't really a case, and in fact the figures are a lot lower.



    For a business that people say is like a gold mine, (usually those not in it) I don't see people rushing to get into it.


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