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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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  • #7922
    rossie1977
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,442 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Assetbacked wrote: »
    Would these new cases and deaths be as a result of transmission prior to the stringent measures were brought in just before Paddy's Day? So we don't have data on the impact of the measures yet?

    On average its 20 days from infection to death so most likely many were infected before paddy's day.

    Problem though is that many of the recent Irish deaths are nursing homes not in ICU. Going to be very difficult to contain spread in those facilities as its the nurses and carers spreading it to the elderly


  • #7923
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Ray Donovan wrote: »
    According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?
    It's a spurious stat and not a useful figure. The UK is testing barely 3 times as many as we are, despite having over 10 times our population, and so naturally they have less reported cases per million than we have - because their testing is rubbish.

    A more useful figure to compare I think is deaths and ICU numbers.


  • #7924
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,917 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    owlbethere wrote: »
    How was TB treated back in the day?

    It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

    People can contract TB bacteria but never develop TB disease which is the infectious and killer part.

    When a person's immune system deteriorates for what ever reason this is when TB disease can develop.

    Given the political situation, living conditions and family sizes of the time it was easily spread once at disease stage which caused the high number of deaths and it was mainly seen as a disease of the poor.

    It's not comparable with covid IMHO as we don't have the knowledge around covid that we have for TB, but some similar attitudes being displayed around it from some people advocating people being let get it and see what happens, people giving out about measures being taken when comparing both with my dad.


  • #7925
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    froog wrote: »
    It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

    And all isolating. The way things are going most of the 424 people announced today should be in recovery now.


  • #7926
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    poppers wrote: »
    Doubt they are waiting for results to get people into icu.


    I would say doctors, nursing homes and families are making decisions not to got to ICU with older sicker people. The trauma of leaving your home or nursing home and being sent to ICU with maybe a small chance of survival will mean that many will chose to stay where they are and take their chances.


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  • #7927
    RebelButtMunch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,399 ✭✭✭RebelButtMunch


    s1ippy wrote: »
    So only 15 from ICU have died. Nursing homes are not admitting their residents so presumably the families have lost their right to sign off on any DNR clause on their family members?

    Low numbers in ICU likely indicate that in the community, people are dying suddenly. I know I'd wait until I was completely suffocated before alerting anyone for assistance knowing that it would probably make me even sicker. It just goes to show the lack of faith in the HSE, people not attending hospital as they would rather actually take their chances at home without help.

    OR people have underlying conditions and unfortunately bringing them to ICU wouldnt make a difference.


  • #7928
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    josip wrote: »
    Panic over folks.



    KHltSaq.png


    Job done, social distancing has been effective.
    The number of Covid in ICU has been stable for 2 days (bright blue line)
    Even the old plot of total ICU admissions (light blue line) is now trending below the best case scenario of 5 days ago.
    There won't be any additional measures needed.

    It's now a question of what restrictions they will relax and when.
    Deaths will unfortunately continue to occur, but they are a lagging indicator and will also decrease within a week or two.


    Not sure we can say 'Job Done' when we don't have accurate testing figures yet. There's still the backlog factor.

    Good to see the ICU numbers slow in increase though.


  • #7929
    fullstop
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,812 ✭✭✭✭fullstop


    Cody montana wrote: »
    Surge?

    Are you going to say this every day now?


  • #7930
    take everything
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,847 ✭✭✭take everything


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

    Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

    But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

    So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

    Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

    The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.


  • #7931
    bilston
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,009 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    Dr. Colossus wrote: »
    It's not meaningless. They are the most accurate stats available.

    It is completely meaningless.

    The 10% mortality rate bears no relation whatsoever to the reality. It's not even close.


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  • #7932
    CIARAN_BOYLE
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    I like that one of the journalists asked for the medium for all figures and Tony said they could calculate in future.


  • #7933
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    hmmm wrote: »
    It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

    the lack of reagents is mostly a smokescreen. we were testing everyone with a sniffle or headache in the first few weeks and it quickly got way out of control. so they had to tighten testing criteria, but the damage was already done. lots of people that likely actually were infected never got tested. i personally know several people that have been waiting for a test or results for over a week. i have heard many other stories of people promised tests who never got them. a lot of people are not even bothering calling for a test now. almost certainly the number of infected is several times what the declared figure is. not to mention the constant evasion of how many have been tested at the press conference. as i type right now I hear tony h refusing to confirm how many healthcare workers have been tested.

    i'm not sure how in any way you could call this a success.


  • #7934
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    take everything wrote: »
    Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

    The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.

    Yes, he said that in my quote - the peak will go further out. It's about slowing down the pressure on the health service rather than making it go away right now is my understanding.


  • #7935
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,194 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    fritzelly wrote: »
    These figures are not nice and we still have 2 weeks to the anticipated peak

    When is the surge / peak expected, April 19th?
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #7936
    pjohnson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,086 ✭✭✭✭pjohnson


    The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.


    Bizarre ignorance.


  • #7937
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Not sure we can say 'Job Done' when we don't have accurate testing figures yet. There's still the backlog factor.

    Good to see the ICU numbers slow in increase though.

    The backlog could be good. Todays 424 could have been tested on average a week ago, and when test lead times reduce we may see lower positives, the peak might be passed.

    ICU beds and deaths are not showing a surge.

    Heres hoping.


  • #7938
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Tony Holohan just did a Pontius Pilate on nursing homes during a response to question.


  • #7939
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,690 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »
    I like that one of the journalists asked for the medium for all figures and Tony said they could calculate in future.

    The mean he asked for :D

    Of the 46 who are no longer in ICU 15 died and 31 recovered.

    So 66% recovered


  • #7940
    irishlad.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 213 ✭✭irishlad.


    People are so quick to point out the minor % of dodgy PPE or the testing problems we're having in this country.

    It has just been stated that we're currently able to test everyone that's presenting for testing.

    We're doing good lads, no where near a doomsday scenario here!


  • #7941
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,095 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    Why is George lee covering this story ? He's the most depressing person RTÉ have. He doesn't help the mood. I know fergal bowers needs a break but surely there was someone else who could be covering this ?


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  • #7942
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    pjohnson wrote: »
    The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.

    Did George Lee not just say 87% of deaths are outside ICU, as in many of them in nursing homes, old and frail anyway.


  • #7943
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    pjohnson wrote: »
    The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.


    Bizarre ignorance.

    The restrictive measures won't have shown up in the data yet. Talk of easing or keeping them as they are (or stricture measures) is premature in both instances. Arguably we are close to peaking right now.


  • #7944
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    irishlad. wrote: »
    People are so quick to point out the minor % of dodgy PPE or the testing problems we're having in this country.

    It has just been stated that we're currently able to test everyone that's presenting for testing.

    We're doing good lads, no where near a doomsday scenario here!

    Hey! This is no time for positivity!!


  • #7945
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    froog wrote: »
    the lack of reagents is mostly a smokescreen. we were testing everyone with a sniffle or headache in the first few weeks and it quickly got way out of control. so they had to tighten testing criteria, but the damage was already done. lots of people that likely actually were infected never got tested. i personally know several people that have been waiting for a test or results for over a week. i have heard many other stories of people promised tests who never got them. a lot of people are not even bothering calling for a test now. almost certainly the number of infected is several times what the declared figure is. not to mention the constant evasion of how many have been tested at the press conference. as i type right now I hear tony h refusing to confirm how many healthcare workers have been tested.

    i'm not sure how in any way you could call this a success.
    The HSE can't win. Everyone with a sniffle rang them to get a test, and flooded the system with hypochondriacs. The HSE changed the testing criteria and got criticised for not testing everyone. Now you're criticising for testing too many.

    Captain hindsights everywhere. I like our current testing approach, and it's the only way we will got out this - probably with the addition of serological testing to see the extent of spread.


  • #7946
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    So only 15 of our 120 deaths were from ICU, they must've been in nursing homes


  • #7947
    Naggdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,981 ✭✭✭Naggdefy


    Beasty wrote: »
    Why do people keep repeating this allegation?

    It was reported they welded doors to ensure only one access/exit point - it was to monitor/restrict movements. Not very nice, but not a literal "lock-in"

    Do you trust their figures?


  • #7948
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,402 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    One very encouraging sign is that only one extra person seems to have been admitted to ICU in a 24 hour period (even though these numbers are not quite up to date as Tony says).


  • #7949
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,622 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    424 new cases. Surge definitely happening


  • #7950
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,774 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    We were forewarned about the problems of the PPE and other virus related stuff from China, given the experience of the Netherlands, Spain, Czech Republic...


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  • #7951
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    hmmm wrote: »
    The HSE can't win. Everyone with a sniffle rang them to get a test, and flooded the system with hypochondriacs. The HSE changed the testing criteria and got criticised for not testing everyone. Now you're criticising for testing too many.

    Captain hindsights everywhere. I like our current testing approach, and it's the only way we will got out this - probably with the addition of serological testing to see the extent of spread.

    i think the HSE has done a good job on all other fronts to be honest. but testing has been a complete joke right from the start and deserves to be called out.


This discussion has been closed.
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