CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

Cody montana · 03-04-2020 04:53PM

Surge?

harr · 03-04-2020 04:54PM

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

podgeandrodge · 03-04-2020 04:55PM

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

poppers · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

harr wrote: »

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

Doubt they are waiting for results to get people into icu.

hmmm · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

I think we need to distinguish between a community spread surge, and point outbreaks in very vulnerable locations.

Unfortunately there does appear to be several outbreaks in nursing homes, and these will likely lead to higher death rates. Similarly if there is spread within a hospital, we could see high death rates - neither of these indicates widespread infection across the community.

harr · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

Beasty · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

China may be economical with the truth. Also they welded peoples' doors to keep them in.

Why do people keep repeating this allegation?

It was reported they welded doors to ensure only one access/exit point - it was to monitor/restrict movements. Not very nice, but not a literal "lock-in"

easypazz · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

George asked a good question?

political analyst · 03-04-2020 04:57PM

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03/28/neil-ferguson-scientist-convinced-boris-johnson-uk-coronavirus-lockdown-criticised/

Professor Neil Ferguson, of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London, produced a paper predicting that Britain was on course to lose 250,000 people during the coronavirus epidemic unless stringent measures were taken. His research is said to have convinced Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his advisors to introduce the lockdown.

However, it has now emerged that Ferguson has been criticised in the past for making predictions based on allegedly faulty assumptions which nevertheless shaped government strategies and impacted the UK economy.

He was behind disputed research that sparked the mass culling of farm animals during the 2001 epidemic of foot and mouth disease, a crisis which cost the country billions of pounds.

And separately he also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die from bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or ‘mad cow disease’) and its equivalent in sheep if it made the leap to humans. To date there have been fewer than 200 deaths from the human form of BSE and none resulting from sheep to human transmission.

Michael Thrusfield, professor of veterinary epidemiology at Edinburgh University, who co-authored both of the critical reports, said that they had been intended as a “cautionary tale” about how mathematical models are sometimes used to predict the spread of disease.

He described his sense of “déjà vu” when he read Mr Ferguson’s Imperial College paper on coronavirus, which was published earlier this month.

An Ciarraioch · 03-04-2020 04:58PM

The lockdown certainly won't be lifted before May, if there's no levelling off in the coming weeks.

froog · 03-04-2020 04:58PM

Shn99 wrote: »

Whats the big secret with the number of tests?

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

easypazz · 03-04-2020 04:59PM

harr wrote: »

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

ICU numbers and deaths is the real measure.

A big backlog will suddenly give us a big number.

hmmm · 03-04-2020 04:59PM

NDWC wrote: »

156 in ICU since it began, 110 in ICU currently, 31 discharged, 15 died

Has anyone done a graph of ICU numbers? It's easy to miss new cases, not so easy to miss people who have died or need ICU. Would be interested to see those trends as it doesn't appear to me that ICU numbers are spiking.

Assetbacked · 03-04-2020 05:00PM

Would these new cases and deaths be as a result of transmission prior to the stringent measures were brought in just before Paddy's Day? So we don't have data on the impact of the measures yet?

Edit: Confirmed that there is no data from the impact of the measures on containing the virus as of yet and we won't have sight until late next week. As such, talk of reducing the measures, extending the same or introducing more stringent measures is premature as of yet;

https://www.thejournal.ie/coronavirus-new-cases-department-of-health-5065427-Apr2020/

Ray Donovan · 03-04-2020 05:00PM

According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?

rafatoni · 03-04-2020 05:00PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The lockdown certainly won't be lifted before May, if there's no levelling off in the coming weeks.

Banker. Be another 2 weeks from easter sunday which is needed TBF.

hmmm · 03-04-2020 05:01PM

froog wrote: »

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

igCorcaigh · 03-04-2020 05:01PM

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1245787069076602880?s=19

josip · 03-04-2020 05:01PM

I think the worst is over folks.

Social distancing has been effective and it looks like we started it early enough.
The number of Covid in ICU has been stable for 2 days (bright blue line)
Even the old plot of total ICU admissions (light blue line) is now trending below the best case scenario of 5 days ago.
There won't be any additional measures needed.

It's now a question of what restrictions they will relax and when.
Deaths will unfortunately continue to occur, but they are a lagging indicator and will also decrease within a week or two.

bekker · 03-04-2020 05:01PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How was TB treated back in the day?

It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

For a period it was into a form of terror, special mobile x-ray vans going road by road, with lines of children waiting to be x-rayed, if positive it could be off to a sanitorium.

s1ippy · 03-04-2020 05:02PM

So only 15 from ICU have died. Nursing homes are not admitting their residents so presumably the families have lost their right to sign off on any DNR clause on their family members?

Low numbers in ICU likely indicate that in the community, people are dying suddenly. I know I'd wait until I was completely suffocated before alerting anyone for assistance knowing that it would probably make me even sicker. It just goes to show the lack of faith in the HSE, people not attending hospital as they would rather actually take their chances at home without help.

Stheno · 03-04-2020 05:02PM

harr wrote: »

Does this mean that’s most are dying before test results are coming back .. with so little of the dead actually going through ICU

No. They covered this last night

Not everyone who has died was a candidate for ICU due partly to underlying conditions.

While they tested positive, and are reported as a Covid death it's not necessarily what killed them

stephenjmcd · 03-04-2020 05:02PM

harr wrote: »

So Monday or Tuesday we are looking at big numbers when the results return from Germany .. thousands maybe

There'll be an increase in results but thousands might be a bit much.

Anyway its the hosptial numbers you've to watch.

rossie1977 · 03-04-2020 05:03PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Would these new cases and deaths be as a result of transmission prior to the stringent measures were brought in just before Paddy's Day? So we don't have data on the impact of the measures yet?

On average its 20 days from infection to death so most likely many were infected before paddy's day.

Problem though is that many of the recent Irish deaths are nursing homes not in ICU. Going to be very difficult to contain spread in those facilities as its the nurses and carers spreading it to the elderly

hmmm · 03-04-2020 05:03PM

Ray Donovan wrote: »

According to worldometers of all countries with over 1,000 cases we are 12th in the WORLD for cases per million people at 865. Is that not a very frightening statistic or am I totally missing something?

It's a spurious stat and not a useful figure. The UK is testing barely 3 times as many as we are, despite having over 10 times our population, and so naturally they have less reported cases per million than we have - because their testing is rubbish.

A more useful figure to compare I think is deaths and ICU numbers.

03-04-2020 05:03PM

owlbethere wrote: »

How was TB treated back in the day?

It was contagious. Merlin park hospital in Galway was an isolation hospital. How was it treated. Did the country go into lockdown?

People can contract TB bacteria but never develop TB disease which is the infectious and killer part.

When a person's immune system deteriorates for what ever reason this is when TB disease can develop.

Given the political situation, living conditions and family sizes of the time it was easily spread once at disease stage which caused the high number of deaths and it was mainly seen as a disease of the poor.

It's not comparable with covid IMHO as we don't have the knowledge around covid that we have for TB, but some similar attitudes being displayed around it from some people advocating people being let get it and see what happens, people giving out about measures being taken when comparing both with my dad.

easypazz · 03-04-2020 05:03PM

froog wrote: »

It's no secret, the testing program is a complete and utter disaster. thousands waiting on test results for several days, likely 10s of thousands of untested infected out there.

And all isolating. The way things are going most of the 424 people announced today should be in recovery now.

cameramonkey · 03-04-2020 05:04PM

poppers wrote: »

Doubt they are waiting for results to get people into icu.

I would say doctors, nursing homes and families are making decisions not to got to ICU with older sicker people. The trauma of leaving your home or nursing home and being sent to ICU with maybe a small chance of survival will mean that many will chose to stay where they are and take their chances.

RebelButtMunch · 03-04-2020 05:04PM

s1ippy wrote: »

So only 15 from ICU have died. Nursing homes are not admitting their residents so presumably the families have lost their right to sign off on any DNR clause on their family members?

Low numbers in ICU likely indicate that in the community, people are dying suddenly. I know I'd wait until I was completely suffocated before alerting anyone for assistance knowing that it would probably make me even sicker. It just goes to show the lack of faith in the HSE, people not attending hospital as they would rather actually take their chances at home without help.

OR people have underlying conditions and unfortunately bringing them to ICU wouldnt make a difference.

BLIZZARD7 · 03-04-2020 05:05PM

josip wrote: »

Panic over folks.

Job done, social distancing has been effective.
The number of Covid in ICU has been stable for 2 days (bright blue line)
Even the old plot of total ICU admissions (light blue line) is now trending below the best case scenario of 5 days ago.
There won't be any additional measures needed.

It's now a question of what restrictions they will relax and when.
Deaths will unfortunately continue to occur, but they are a lagging indicator and will also decrease within a week or two.

Not sure we can say 'Job Done' when we don't have accurate testing figures yet. There's still the backlog factor.

Good to see the ICU numbers slow in increase though.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP