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What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

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    #272
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users Posts: 17,849 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    enricoh wrote: »
    Small businesses have been paid lip service by the last government, once the multinationals were throwing money at the government nothing else mattered. Still no word on rates afaik.
    Crazy insurance payouts affecting your viability- sure thing we'll set up a committee to look into it, might even get them to do a report!
    Too much red tape and regulations - here's a few more jobsworths out to justify their existence and their mileage.
    I even got a letter last week from the council looking for the rates - all I could do is laugh, we operate in a parallel universe!

    Let the council collect the millions that their social housing tenants don’t bother paying !


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    #273
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    Wall Street Bank:

    " sees three consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, with the economy shrinking 7 per cent on an annualised basis in the first three months of the year, 30 per cent in the second quarter and 1 per cent in the third.


    Predicting the deepest recession on record "


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    #274
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Bartering and swaps could become part of the economy if this goes on long enough. People listing what they have to trade and what they need.


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    #275
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    leavingirl wrote:
    Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.


    If our governments enacted radical ideas such as helicopter money, some businesses might be saved, but since the EU is a radical idea free zone, it probably won't happen


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    #276
    leavingirl
    Registered Users Posts: 548 ✭✭✭leavingirl


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    If our governments enacted radical ideas such as helicopter money, some businesses might be saved, but since the EU is a radical idea free zone, it probably won't happen

    I understand your idea however the US tried similar stimulus packages back in September , the FED pumped endless amounts into the repo markets..


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    #277
    YFlyer
    Registered Users Posts: 9,717 ✭✭✭YFlyer


    Just hearing that people on part time work that was left go are getting €350 a week. Crazy.


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    #278
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    leavingirl wrote:
    I understand your idea however the US tried similar stimulus packages back in September , the FED pumped endless amounts into the repo markets..


    Helicopter money goes directly into citizens bank accounts, bypassing the financial sector altogether, which I personally think just molestes money coming from central banks, eventually trickling down as our debts. I know the yanks are currently considering this, but I'm not aware if they've recently tried it, Hong Kong have, sounds like it's worked reasonably well


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    #279
    ricero
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,348 ✭✭✭✭ricero


    The housing market must be crippled


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    #280
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    agree and disagree, we currently have no options but to print money, its either that, or lots of people are gonna die from this virus and possibly from starvation

    Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

    Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.


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    #281
    The_Brood
    Closed Accounts Posts: 838 ✭✭✭The_Brood


    Well this is the big question. With all these massive bailouts and payments for people who have lost their jobs...who will pay for all this? If taxes are raised/austerity measures are placed on the working poor/lower middle class, then what the ****. We shouldn't be the ones paying for all this.


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    #282
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

    Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.

    again, we re in a deflationary period, central banks have been trying to create inflation since the 2008 crash, after printing trillions, they have been unable to, i.e. situations such as hyper inflation are highly unlikely. central bank money is now being offered at negative rates, its effectively free money, yes the principle will need to be repaid, but we d be mad not to accept this money now


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    #283
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    The_Brood wrote: »
    Well this is the big question. With all these massive bailouts and payments for people who have lost their jobs...who will pay for all this? If taxes are raised/austerity measures are placed on the working poor/lower middle class, then what the ****. We shouldn't be the ones paying for all this.

    loans are at negative rates, its effectively free money, it ll be paid back by normal means by servicing our debts over a prolonged period


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    #284
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    Not sure where you get these inflation figures from , Central Banks are operating at negative interest rates. Many people have little income so there'll be no inflation if anything similar to the 2008 recession.


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    #285
    LuasSimon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,208 ✭✭✭LuasSimon


    Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.

    Im sure they could manage away on 2 Billion rather than 3 Billion.


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    #286
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    LuasSimon wrote:
    Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.


    Hahaha yea right, this is where they make hay!


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    #287
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    LuasSimon wrote: »
    Any chance the Super rich of countries with 3 and 4 billion in wealth each might donate 1/4 or a 1/3 of their wealth into a nations system to help out rather than trying to pay less tax in some other jurisdiction like Luxembourg, Switzerland or Malta.

    Im sure they could manage away on 2 Billion rather than 3 Billion.

    Bono could stop clapping and put his hand in his pocket alright.

    To be fair he is far from the richest out there. Our billionaires, people whose wealth is clearly dubious, are not doing anything.


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    #288
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Snow Garden wrote: »
    Correct but inflation will bite us on the ass. Inflation like we haven't seen the likes of for decades.

    Inflation was at 20% in the early 1980s. I think we will certainly top that.

    Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

    Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

    Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.


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    #289
    arctictree
    Registered Users Posts: 4,293 ✭✭✭arctictree


    Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?


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    #290
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    arctictree wrote:
    Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?


    Probably not, possibly due to lack of supply and increase in demand, if true at all


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    #291
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    arctictree wrote: »
    Lots of anecdotal reports out there now of prices rising in the Supermarkets over the last few weeks. Is this the inflation that's coming?

    No, that is standard supply and demand.


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    #292
    citysights
    Closed Accounts Posts: 288 ✭✭citysights


    Harry Palmr wrote: »
    Bartering and swaps could become part of the economy if this goes on long enough. People listing what they have to trade and what they need.

    I remember that from the last recession, websites to swop stuff, plus bartering trade.


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    #293
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

    Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

    Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.


    To perhaps re inflate the economy government vouchers could be given instead of cash. To be used in local businesses and spent within say 3 months.


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    #294
    Gael23
    Registered Users Posts: 12,091 ✭✭✭✭Gael23


    Austerity on an economy begging on its knees won’t end well


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    #295
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    Gael23 wrote: »
    Austerity on an economy begging on its knees won’t end well

    austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter


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    #296
    saabsaab
    Registered Users Posts: 7,826 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter


    Some would say it worked after the crash here but it should be better to pump money into a flagging economy in a downturn. However governments don't usually have reserve money to do it at that time.


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    #297
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    saabsaab wrote: »
    Some would say it worked after the crash here but it should be better to pump money into a flagging economy in a downturn. However governments don't usually have reserve money to do it at that time.

    plenty of research out there that it does far more harm than good, particularly during a downturn, it gutted our most critical public services such as our health system. governments, if allowed, have the capability to create money, our own central bank can do this, but theyve decided to allow it to the ecb


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    #298
    Gavlor
    Registered Users Posts: 6,176 ✭✭✭Gavlor


    Wanderer78 wrote: »
    austerity never works, no matter what state the economy is, but particularly when its in the ****ter

    We finally agree on something!


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    #299
    patnor1011
    Registered Users Posts: 2,990 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Inflation in the past was caused by a number of issues but the strength of the unions played a part. Prices rose, and wages rose with them - sometimes this was actual wage laws and even the US had them. And so the cycle started to feed on itself.

    Putting 1000 euros into the bank accounts of people won't cause inflation in an otherwise deflationary environment. It probably wont even increase the money supply that much for larger currencies, and the money supply in recessions contracts anyway as people pay back debts where they can, while fewer new loans ( which is the primary source of money) are issued.

    Also in a recession factories, shops, hotels etc are not at full capacity and prices wont increase until they are hitting constraint limits.

    It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.


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    #300
    Zenify
    Registered Users Posts: 861 ✭✭✭Zenify


    patnor1011 wrote: »
    It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.

    I think it would be great to get inflation, the debts of our country would evaporate away. Unfortunately, it doesnt look likely. Look at history, economic shocks usually bring deflation.

    All the big inputs: oil, copper, steel, coal are dropping massively in price.

    People are not spending money. People are thinking about survival not Prada handbags.


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    #301
    Wanderer78
    Registered Users Posts: 28,944 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    patnor1011 wrote:
    It is already happening. Putting 1k euros to everyone pocket just make more money chasing less stuff and that end up with not just inflation but hyperinflation.


    Hyperinflation would not occur due to the fact we re in a deflationary period, helicopter money may in fact just keep the economy ticking over, and businesses open. For example, the government bump in dole payments was a sign of what would happen if people were given extra money, it will increase spending, and keep households and businesses going


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