What will the economy look like in 6 months time?

growleaves

Tacitus Kilgore

Nermal wrote: »

Except they're not going bankrupt because of an unforeseen medical emergency, are they? They're going bankrupt because the government has forced them to close.

Potato patata

Skylinehead

Nermal wrote: »

Except they're not going bankrupt because of an unforeseen medical emergency, are they? They're going bankrupt because the government has forced them to close.

....due to an unforeseen medical emergency.

saabsaab

growleaves wrote: »

You have to love these old movies. They don't lake them like that anymore.

Canyon86

nthclare wrote: »

I think they're not going to risk fleecing us and expect a just and happy society.

More than likely the interest rate will be cut and the financial system will have to be set up so it could take up to 100 years to complete the payback.

Rather like say if you had a loan, and spread it out over2 years, and you're in a bad place financially and its too much.

So you restructure the load over 5 years and pay it off in less instalments over a longer period.

And at a lower interest rate.

Believe you me, if the butcher the Baker and candle stick maker's are having to live in poverty for the rest of their lives and the parasites on top are not taking a big hit there will be absolute carnage.

Especially in France, if you think the French revolution was an eye opener then you've seen nothing yet.

Through no fault of our own we're all locked up in a new world and in fairness we're all behaving ourselves better than the hierarchy expected.

They've no choice but to be soft on us, because we need the world to carry on and I guarantee you that there's people who've invested millions in products and high risk shares and they're worthless.

For instance you could have invested in some low risk stocks and they're getting a hammering at the moment, your investment in cash will be at a big loss too.

Some people will be absolutely gone from park avenue to park bench and from lobster to foraging for snail's along the fence line of the slums....

There's people sitting down tonight and they've worked very hard to build up their lives and businesses and employing a lot of people and its all gone zero, zilch and they've friends in the same boat.

These business men are all connected and the only way they can fix this is to get the people on lower ranks on their side because the likes of the butcher the Baker and candle stick maker people like myself are needed to keep the cogs turning.

The only way through this is making it fair for all the hard working people and people who are disabled the sick and the elderly.

As for the people who don't want to work or add anything to society they'll carry on with their lives too.

But I've a feeling that after this they'll have to help out too, maybe bring back community employment schemes and include recycling, looking after the local amenities and clean up rivers and the beaches.
Maybe get landscape architects to design parklands and enhance the outdoors more.
Therefore employing gardener's, landscapers and guys and women growing plants, nice summer, autumn, winter and spring Gardens.

We have the climate for that, we could have the best parklands and outdoor spaces in the world and I suppose that's my dream is to have a green Ireland and natural habitats.

Clean up around 10% of the tower houses, old mansions and castles and walled gardens turn Ireland into a destination for people from all over the world, we're capable of being great hosts and entertainers.

Let the people love their culture and country and their culture and country will look after the people.

There's a lot of people who are more in tune with the outdoors and heritage than we realise and are well talented and they're doing jobs which they hate but it keeps the bread on the table and roof over their heads.

For a country of huge potential there's not enough emphasis on the parks, historical sites and the tourism sector.

That's where we excel, and we were pretty damn good at it in the past.

There was a man Called Brendan O Regan who was very passionate about bringing jobs and tourists to the Shannon Region there's not many like him there anymore, due to bureaucracy and this " that's mine" culture...

And I feel that we could build a better place for us here, but I'd say it would be hard at the start, maybe a small trial and build it gradually...

A risk I know

What a class post

saabsaab

Well 6 months from now, who knows but I'll make a few predictions. We won't be fully out of the covid crisis but the worst should be over.



Many stores that don't have an effective internet presence will be gone to the wall. Some stores that closed will not reopen again.


House prices will fall.



New stores will open on the back of low interest rates.


Insurance banking and airlines will still suffer.


All places where people congregate will be in need of redesign. Cinemas, supermarkets, hairdressers, banks, offices etc. This should generate jobs for construction related people.


A greater demand for medical and scientific degrees.

scooby77

Agree with previous post and
FEMPI mark ii for public services alot worse, increment freezes, paycuts, increased PRD etc

Tax increases Inc. Prsi and USC for all

Service sector on knees, no tourists and people out of habit of socialising, shopping in physical stores
Or

Germany has relented, ECB has printing presses on 24/7 countries not as badly hit eg Ireland, Germany face inflation woes

snotboogie

scooby77 wrote: »

Agree with previous post and
FEMPI mark ii for public services alot worse, increment freezes, paycuts, increased PRD etc

Tax increases Inc. Prsi and USC for all

Service sector on knees, no tourists and people out of habit of socialising, shopping in physical stores
Or

Germany has relented, ECB has printing presses on 24/7 countries not as badly hit eg Ireland, Germany face inflation woes

Are we not staring into deflation? There has to be a huge decrease of money in circulation now? I think the absolute global impact of the downturn and the experience from 2008 will stop the PRSI and USC increases. They won't be able to get away with the same measures again. This is completely different from 2008 and I don't think we will have the same outcomes.

The economy after we come out of this will be fascinating. I would not rule out a huge bounce of fresh economic activity if we beat this in a few months. Cheap credit, a revitalized population, huge positivity...

At the same time I think there are unlikely but not totally unrealistic utter meltdown scenarios; a second major wave of Covid-19 after we come out of a lockdown would properly sink Europe, especially if immunity only lasts a few months. I don't think that a societal breakdown in the US is out of the realms of possibility either, they have over 200k cases with no sign of a peak in sight and extremely limited social safety nets, how long can they keep going for?

maestroamado

1800_Ladladlad wrote: »

link

It will always fascinate me how they are looked after

They are not looked after they look after themselves by employing the smartest lawyers, and pr people to cozy up to Governments.
Then they work with the banks who employ the brightest accountants.
Its all a big monopoly game they play on behalf of their shareholders, the prize is the divident and the amount the companies and shareholders can borrow for this game.
Unfortunately the brightest are in this game, they can run politicians round in circles...

beggars_bush

scooby77 wrote: »

Agree with previous post and
FEMPI mark ii for public services alot worse, increment freezes, paycuts, increased PRD etc

Tax increases Inc. Prsi and USC for all

Service sector on knees, no tourists and people out of habit of socialising, shopping in physical stores
Or

Germany has relented, ECB has printing presses on 24/7 countries not as badly hit eg Ireland, Germany face inflation woes

Yeah, fully expect the FEMPI legislation to be enacted, with an exception for frontline healthcare workers

Spanish Eyes

Some will have a pent up demand to spend and buy. Nothing to spend it on now other than food and medicines really.

So when things settle hopefully, spending will recommence I hope.

Have to stay positive, although I know many are suffering through this also.

scwazrh

Is there any government assistance for small businesses affected ?

saabsaab

There may be a boost in local holidays might offset the foreign travel that will be lost. If extra money is released too soon as in 'helicopter money' it may not have a something to spend it on and create inflation.

scooby77

snotboogie wrote: »

Are we not staring into deflation? There has to be a huge decrease of money in circulation now?

IF the ECB "print" more money as a response there will technically be more money in circulation ( we mightn't see it but, it's there). Historically printing money as a solution has left to inflation. Of course the Euro is still a grand experiment, but my guess would be it'll cause more problems in some places than others.

leavingirl

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Very depressing and worrying.
Why has our National Broadcasting service imposed a news blackout on the implications that this lockdown will have on our economy? Nothing. No discussion.
Some mindless trivia about doing exercise on at the moment.......

Hello Elmer. They are the enemy. Good observation.

citysights

Massive economic fallout, high unemployment, lower living standards, did I hear a figure of 30 billion being mentioned as to what it will cost us. Oh yes and higher taxes probably for those still working. Hard to see any positivity, though maybe online businesses will take off and new ones can be started.

timmy_mallet

citysights wrote: »

Massive economic fallout, high unemployment, lower living standards, did I hear a figure of 30 billion being mentioned as to what it will cost us. Oh yes and higher taxes probably for those still working. Hard to see any positivity, though maybe online businesses will take off and new ones can be started.

Remember this is global. Its end of WW1 situation. High inflation, blame games, WWIII.

I mean, this needs to be said. We cannot prioritise a small minority of the population for this.

Baseball72

Powerful stuff. Thank you.

scwazrh

thebaz wrote: »

as we are all isolating hard to speak to many , but the few I have including myself have all no work now, small business closing everywher - Who is going to pay for this massive unemployment bill - totally depressing

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Wanderer78

Ffs, we re in a deflationary period, central banks have been printing a **** load of money since the last crash in the form of qe, and have been unable to create any inflation, only in asset markets, they're printing again, producing helicopter money will not cause hyper inflation, it might just save some businesses, just print the fcuking money

Xertz

One thing is it may have accelerated the end of a lot of bricks and mortar businesses that were fading away. I could see a lot of retailers not recovering and online retail replacing them. Some of the big U.K. names will likely vanish. It was going to happen anyway but I think we will now experience it as one short, sharp shock rather than a gentle decline and replacement.

I could see it taking a while for people to open their purses and start spending again too. We’ve only just gotten back to normal after 2008 (and I don’t mean Ireland alone in that. I can see a lot of people holding onto assets and not doing anything for a while.

Ireland’s not all that dependent on tourism, but it could take a long time for that to come back, but it may be cushioned by domestic demand by people who won’t want to go abroad for the next 12 months or so.

Aviation might take a few years to recover, although I suspect intra EU stuff will be back much more rapidly than long haul.

I think you’re going to see digital businesses, pharma, etc all doing well and some of those drive a lot of our GDP so it could well be a very different impact on more traditional businesses with a tech boom.

It’s all very unpredictable but we’ll probably know by August or so where things are going.

The one the EU has been pointing out is that it’s very important to keep jobs open and not just lay people off as that may make life very difficult when the economy does pick back up as the businesses could well be gone.

They’ve a big funding programme being rolled out to try and keep people in work short time and through subsidies to keep businesses alive and ready to roll.

leavingirl

scwazrh wrote: »

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Hey. I have some news for you. The Government doesn't give a sh1t about you or your family. They don't care about crashing the economy. Why not? Because you and your families money is gonna pay for their fat pensions for the rest of their lives! I'm sorry but your family business will probably fail.

But at least we are safe, eh?

Hey you know that the merry Leo has his eye on some top jobs over there in Brussels. He is being a good boy, doing as he is told. I heard he even knows some of the nightclubs over there already.

Wanderer78

leavingirl wrote: »

Hey. I have some news for you. The Government doesn't give a sh1t about you or your family. They don't care about crashing the economy. Why not? Because you and your families money is gonna pay for their fat pensions for the rest of their lives! I'm sorry but your family business will probably fail.

But at least we are safe, eh?

Hey you know that the merry Leo has his eye on some top jobs over there in Brussels. He is being a good boy, doing as he is told. I heard he even knows some of the nightclubs over there already.

most politicians are not evil people trying to fcuk over the little man, many do have flawed ideologies though, including the left(self confessed leftie)

Pa ElGrande

This has given a major boost to teleworking and many people have been forced by necessity to resolve their infrastructure problems whether that be docking stations, headsets, furniture, internet connection bandwidth and personal time management while at the same time managing home life. The facts gathered from this will not be lost on companies who will be studying productivity losses or gains versus the costs of renting and maintaining commercial premises. The results over the next few years may be companies realise the cost savings and productivity improvements and simply convert employees to independent contractors working from home.

This deflates the coffee shop bubble and many small business operators will not be able to return since they were marginal to begin with and their foreign staff have already left the country so those that return will need to hire and potentially train new employees and meet new regulations (distancing and hygiene).

The current economic situation is a government induced recession with the response largely dictated by the lack of capacity in the public hospital system to be able to absorb a surge in cases during the Winter months. The costs from this will need to be reviewed and reforms put in place and in the context of an ageing population and the controversy over the budget of the national children's hospital the question of competence of public health management arises. That will be just one aspect of the political fallout from this which will have an effect on the economics of health care in this country. Health insurance might not fare badly from this since the effect of all this induced inactivity is that other cases like elective surgeries are postponed and many people may evaluate their insurance coverage as they get older.

There is also the question of monetary reform arising from government budget deficits and bond market problems with Special Drawing Rights and baskets of currencies raising their head again.

Wanderer78

Wimbledon 2021 wrote: »

Eventually printing money destroys economies, it should not be used indefinitely.

agree and disagree, we currently have no options but to print money, its either that, or lots of people are gonna die from this virus and possibly from starvation

enricoh

scwazrh wrote: »

For me , small businesses closing is my only concern. My family are all fit and young so not overly concerned about the health impact of the virus , however we all work for the family business and right now it’s stopped. We’ve enough to cover April’s bills but after that we’ll be done.
Why is the government not helping small businesses?

Small businesses have been paid lip service by the last government, once the multinationals were throwing money at the government nothing else mattered. Still no word on rates afaik.
Crazy insurance payouts affecting your viability- sure thing we'll set up a committee to look into it, might even get them to do a report!
Too much red tape and regulations - here's a few more jobsworths out to justify their existence and their mileage.
I even got a letter last week from the council looking for the rates - all I could do is laugh, we operate in a parallel universe!

leavingirl

Wanderer78 wrote: »

most politicians are not evil people trying to fcuk over the little man, many do have flawed ideologies though, including the left(self confessed leftie)

Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.

No matter what happens we are starting an economic depression. If we don't act now the severity and the scale of the depression will be like nothing you have ever seen or heard about in real life.

Dorakman

leavingirl wrote: »

Forgot about left and right. He asked why aren't the government helping small businesses? The guy is obviously sitting at home watching his small business slowly fail. This is absolute madness!!! People need to realise that the government DO NOT CARE. The best thing everyone can do now is to say F&CK THE GOVERNMENT, let's all go back to work.

No matter what happens we are starting an economic depression. If we don't act now the severity and the scale of the depression will be like nothing you have ever seen or heard about in real life.

I’m assuming you’re being sarcastic?

leavingirl

Dorakman wrote: »

I’m assuming you’re being sarcastic?

No.

Dorakman

leavingirl wrote: »

No.

So your advice to everyone is go back to work, in the middle of a global pandemic?