CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

GooglePlus · 01-04-2020 11:25AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any idea why or just want to pretend this will go on forever?

Us flattening the curve will push our peak out beyond your projections.

If we had done nothing at all, this would all be over a lot quicker but at a cost of thousands of lives.

Plus, once restrictions are eased, cases will rise again and we'll have a second peak, a third even and on until we have herd immunity or a vaccine.

We have a lot in front of us until things go back to as they were.

Ficheall · 01-04-2020 11:25AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Any idea why or just want to pretend this will go on forever?

Any idea why cases will peak in two weeks?

Gentleman Off The Pitch · 01-04-2020 11:25AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Yeah shows how important physical distancing is within the community. Again credit where it is due offers much more insight to what is going on. Fair play to "EPI Team" in hse.

One thing from that report. Of the deaths thus far 90% of deaths have been in 65+.

However ICU admissions much less skewed to older ages so any age can end up there. Hopefully they all recover.

Well worth a read for everyone on here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf

Very interesting. Unless I'm mistaken, 57% (almost 3 in every 5) of people in the 65+ age bracket who are confirmed to have covid-19 need go to hospital with 13.4% (over 1 in 8 patients) of that hospitalised group needing ICU. Easy to see how this could strain things

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-04-2020 11:30AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Any idea why cases will peak in two weeks?

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-peak-hse-latest-18002433

Ashleigh1986 · 01-04-2020 11:31AM

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

01-04-2020 11:33AM

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

Its not about the people. It's about the availability of the requisite chemicals / agents. And is an international supply problem

GooglePlus · 01-04-2020 11:34AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/coronavirus-ireland-peak-hse-latest-18002433

This was then dismissed as it was too early to tell.

Akabusi · 01-04-2020 11:34AM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Not having a go, just interested. Were you diagnosed? Did your doctor say you were now not infectious or couldn't be reinfected?

No problem, when the HSE rang me with my result, they asked me when i last had any of the symptoms. As I had been clear for 8 days when they rang they said I was now free to stop self isolating. I mentioned my sons symptoms and the advice was that the rest of the family enter a new two week self isolation. We all have been house bound since the 15th March. I have one of the masks I got when being tested, i'll be wearing this in the supermarket. Also just before i leave I will change into newly cleaned clothes before leaving the house for fear of the virus being on what I'm wearing and I bring it out with me.

An Ciarraioch · 01-04-2020 11:36AM

124 ICU admissions up to yesterday, according to RTE, which would be an increase of 11 in 2 days - is the pace of new admissions slowing?

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 11:36AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Its not about the people. It's about the availability of the requisite chemicals / agents. And is an international supply problem

Which is exactly why reduced new case numbers across Europe have to be taken with a pinch of salt.

It could be because of restrictions. Equally it could be because of the reagents supply issues you mention.

We simply don't know.

Cue the usual suspects saying "you are a doom-monger".

Professor Moriarty · 01-04-2020 11:37AM

Akabusi wrote: »

No problem, when the HSE rang me with my result, they asked me when i last had any of the symptoms. As I had been clear for 8 days when they rang they said I was now free to stop self isolating. I mentioned my sons symptoms and the advice was that the rest of the family enter a new two week self isolation. We all have been house bound since the 15th March. I have one of the masks I got when being tested, i'll be wearing this in the supermarket. Also just before i leave I will change into newly cleaned clothes before leaving the house for fear of the virus being on what I'm wearing and I bring it out with me.

Good stuff. Well done.

01-04-2020 11:37AM

babybuilder wrote: »

Not a hope

I think its entirely realistic. Cannot go on forever with restrictions at this level, but there will be some variable level of restrictions for 12 months

Valhallapt · 01-04-2020 11:37AM

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

I live near one of the test centres in galway .
The numbers attending to be tested has plummeted to just a handful per day .
It's obvious there's a major backlog in actual tests that have been done BUT THE DELAY IS IN THE LABS THAT ARE DOING THE SAMPLES .
Does anyone know how many people are actually processing the samples ???
What's the point of doing tests if they results cannot be returned in a 3 day period.
What expertise is required to carry out these tests ?
Why aren't more people been recruited / shifted form certain work to speed up this process ?

I'd be surprised if there isn't now spare capacity in china for testing, seeing as their peak is over, could we put some swabs on the next flight to Beijing to be tested?

Allinall · 01-04-2020 11:37AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

This was then dismissed as it was too early to tell.

Dismissed by who?

cameramonkey · 01-04-2020 11:37AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Riddle me this one.

Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.

If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.

They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?

I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.

We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.

Over the last week they completed 1745 test per day on average. At the press conference they said they were completing 1500 per day. If they were having difficulty getting testing equipment then maybe they are now testing 1500 per day but earlier in the week were testing more per day maybe 2000 per day or more. The 1745 average per day is the correct number.

easypazz · 01-04-2020 11:38AM

babybuilder wrote: »

Not a hope

Why not?

The only thing I can't see is primary schools going back, then only the leaving cert. sits.

What is your expected timeline?

nacho libre · 01-04-2020 11:38AM

ITman88 wrote: »

Well will relax restrictions on the 12th of April, from then maintain social distance etc, no way the 2km restriction from your home will be adhered to much longer.
Social distance will stay for a while, pubs and restaurants will need to try and reopen late April and send kids to school, life must go on

I think you are being some what optimistic about schools re-opening by end of April, unless the number of cases is close to zero. I don't see that as being a realistic proposition.

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 11:39AM

Valhallapt wrote: »

I'd be surprised if there isn't now spare capacity in china for testing, seeing as their peak is over, could we put some swabs on the next flight to Beijing to be tested?

That's actually not a bad idea.

GooglePlus · 01-04-2020 11:39AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think its entirely realistic. Cannot go on forever with restrictions at this level, but there will be some variable level of restrictions for 12 months

These restrictions sound great on paper but I was on lower Baggot St. yesterday and the place was bustling.

Went for a walk yesterday evening to Herbert Park and there was loads out. A Garda van was driving around the park but no interventions at all. Loads in threes and fours out kicking ball or just hanging out.

01-04-2020 11:41AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I know this has been debated time and time again but the question was asked of Gavan Reilly on Twitter if the ICU numbers are current or total and this was his reply. He is usually extremely reliable when it comes to stats amongst other things so it does look like it's the total through since the start not the current as some have reported and some on here insist it as being.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1245268916160606208?s=19

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

GooglePlus · 01-04-2020 11:41AM

Allinall wrote: »

Dismissed by who?

Prof. Philip Nolan

01-04-2020 11:41AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I know this has been debated time and time again but the question was asked of Gavan Reilly on Twitter if the ICU numbers are current or total and this was his reply. He is usually extremely reliable when it comes to stats amongst other things so it does look like it's the total through since the start not the current as some have reported and some on here insist it as being.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1245268916160606208?s=19

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

I await the apologies from a number of posters.

Bob24 · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

nacho libre wrote: »

I think you are being some what optimistic about schools re-opening by end of April, unless the number of cases is close to zero. I don't see that as being a realistic proposition.

Yeah IMO be mid-May to early June before opening then again becomes realistic.

And they the question will be what can be achieved before the summer holiday (if the health situation allows for it, I’d actually be in favour of delaying the start of the summer holiday so that something meaningful can be achieved once they reopen, but I realise this wouldn’t be very popular with teachers nor with students :-)).

Roger_007 · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Can't sell cigarettes to the dead, I suppose. A lot of these people kicking the bucket are smokers.

According to all the health information we have had to date, smokers die 15 years younger than average. So very few of them will get to the age where most of the deaths from Covid are concentrated.
So, it’s unlikely that many of them are/were smokers.

SuperTortoise · 01-04-2020 11:45AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Going by reports of most countries a full lockdown extending beyond 3-4 weeks seems to start to fail

I think when people see close to 1000 people die per day as we see in Italy and Spain it might re-focus their thoughts.

That's another positive aspect of testing as much as possible, when we see a couple of hundred positive tests per day people might think sure we're grand , nothing to worry about, when in fact the true number is probably closer to 10 times that ammount.

stephenjmcd · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

No bother but just look at the rest of the replies first since I posted it. Seems to still be a bit of confusion.

Like I said he is usually fairly accurate but given the way the figures are presented theres still some confusion, nobody seems to get a straight answer.

Allinall · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Prof. Philip Nolan

I'd take his predictions with a large pinch of salt.

https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/irish-news/professor-philip-nolan-hints-could-21785071

GooglePlus · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

According to all the health information we have had to date, smokers die 15 years younger than average. So very few of them will get to the age where most of the deaths from Covid are concentrated.
So, it’s unlikely that many of them are/were smokers.

That would make the average age of death for a smoker 65, which is prime pickings for Covid-19, especially if you're a smoker.

Plenty of smokers living past that as well I'm sure.

BanditLuke · 01-04-2020 11:47AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

These restrictions sound great on paper but I was on lower Baggot St. yesterday and the place was bustling.

Went for a walk yesterday evening to Herbert Park and there was loads out. A Garda van was driving around the park but no interventions at all. Loads in threes and fours out kicking ball or just hanging out.

A lot of self entitled sorts around that location so no surprise really.

An Ciarraioch · 01-04-2020 11:48AM

Tanner Cold Needlepoint wrote: »

Thanks for posting this as it’s what I’ve been arguing is the case for days.

I await the apologies from a number of posters.

The only consolation is that it suggests the system is under less pressure than might have been the case.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP