CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

joe40 wrote: »

Since 1945 we have lived a charmed life in the west, ( that includes all the current elderly) near constant economic growth, all wars were foreign, (the nasty wee conflict in NI the only exception).
This is our first real taste of a global life threatening crisis. On the scale of disasters, both natural and man made, that affect other countries, it's not even that bad so far.
If we get over this with a few months restrictions in movement we can consider ourselves very fortunate, it could get a lot worse yet.

The generations immediately post 1945 did not have to be reminded of the dangers of right wing populist leaders, and the damage they can cause.

Unfortunately that hard lesson seems to be lost on current voters, with the rise of the likes of Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, Duterte etc.

Bleak times ahead unless they are voted out.

caveat emptor wrote: »

More info about wuhan deaths coming out. Evidence that death count wasn't accurate. Surprise.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1244864160434982917?s=20

Do yourself a favour and stop using twitter. It has infected your brain.

gozunda wrote: »

I'll have whatever you're on :pac:

Better than what you are on anyway

owlbethere wrote: »

Testing doesn't change the course of the treatment either. You self isolate if you feel symptoms.

That's true for the actual individual infected, but as they keep saying, now that they have had resource issues with the testing, it was always being done for public health reasons - to get stats on case locations (clusters) and for contact tracing (apparently the most critical aspect in slowing the disease, after individual isolation, hand washing).

If we are not keeping up with the testing, we have less info to work off and it becomes more luck than science in tracking it down. If an individual isolates without a test, all well and good for them, but who have they been in contact with previously and how will they know it is safe to go back to a more normal life, did they have it and now have some immunity, or are they at risk again?
My understanding is that if people are not tested, those questions are not investigated and answered.

The main stat to be concerned about, now that testing is apparently more random than it was, is ICU capacity. That is the next critical finite resource.

Disclaimer - I am not an expert but I have been keeping up with all the factual information, and have noticed that it sometimes changes to suit the particular circumstance of the day.

https://twitter.com/onlyyoontv/status/1244910504604102656

AmberGold wrote: »

Assuming it's factually correct this is one of the most informative pieces I've seen written anywhere since this ordeal began.

And do you know how much an ICU Nurse gets paid for all of that expertise, never mind facing the fear of catching COVID-19? And not seeing their families for weeks/months for some of them now, if there is anyone immuno-compromised in their family.

Most of them are on €40,000 GROSS per year, despite having invested serious money in advanced training and Masters Degrees in some cases.

So never mind a round of applause for health care workers, show them the respect of paying them properly! That at least would give them the esteem they so surely deserve.

gozunda wrote: »

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy. And yes people could still have been repatriated and quarantined.

As to which particular clade each strain of the virus belongs to. No doubt there were people from London / UK etc holidaying in those same hotspots in Northern Italy.

Restrictions on flights would certainly have helped here ...

You see: when people started heading out on skiing trips, it was not yet known that the German outbreak had not been fully contained yet.
It was not yet known either that someone had died by Covid in Valencia as early on 13 February, and that the virus was already circulating in Europe.
I mentioned earlier that Italy stopped all flights to/from China on 31 January, and immediately started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights, to catch anyone with a fever coming indirectly via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris. Still, the virus arrived to Italy (via Germany).
With hindsight, Ireland should have also started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights. US included (COVID19 has been circulating in the US since 15 January , but undetected due to lack of testing https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ )

But, even checking temperatures, that would not have prevented someone flying to Ireland from the US, UK, Netherlands, Germany with no fever but still carrying the virus.
That happened anyway, as Nextstrain clearly shows that the first cases in Ireland got the virus from contacts with the UK and the Netherlands (not Italy).

caveat emptor wrote: »

This refers to new cases. From the data I've looked at it takes ~20 days to die. Deaths won't slow for a while unfortunately but you should see new cases falling.

The last column is tests. Of course they may have seen a reduction in being able to process tests. I don't have that information.

http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_notizie_4362_0_file.pdf

OK they've done 477k tests on 30/03/2020. Given that all other figures are cumulative ill assume they were cumulative too.

The last place I can find a dailly total for Italy is 454k on 29/03/2020. That's 23k a day (note for those interested we do 5k a day as of Sundays press briefing. A twelfth of the population and a 5th of the tests).

A few days ago they tested 35k so testing seems to have gone down. That said testing in general is up from a week or two ago so maybe they have more of an idea of where they are.

https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/blob/master/dati-andamento-nazionale/dpc-covid19-ita-andamento-nazionale.csv

froog wrote: »

ireland tends to do what we're told so the more heavy handed approach is not really needed. not the same on the continent. having said that, there are fines in place now and gardai checkpoints so we're not far off it.

I didn't hear anything about fines. Do you have a source i could read more on this?

otnomart wrote: »

But, even checking temperatures, that would not have prevented someone flying to Ireland from the US, UK, Netherlands, Germany with no fever but still carrying the virus.
That happened anyway, as Nextstrain clearly shows that the first cases in Ireland got the virus from contacts with the UK and the Netherlands (not Italy).

Checking temperature would detect the 'open' cases, those who are already shedding virus all over the place. Stopping them at the airport would have saved a lot of heartache and clusters here later.

If you looked closer at Nextstrain you would find that the Netherlands strain of virus infected Northern Italy, and from there back to Ireland.

To be fair the fact that we generally do what we are told probably relates to the fact that overall most of us are fairly decent people who want to just get on with their business. It's not necessarily a bad thing. I see there are mutterings of our civil liberties etc being taken from us but its for good reason. We can still be sensible and pop out for a walk. At the end of the day we are being asked to try and kill the resevior of virus for 2 weeks, not pick cotton in our bare feet either.