CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

Gynoid · 31-03-2020 06:36AM

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/culture/madonna-delivers-coronavirus-message-while-naked-in-the-bathtub-1.4209840%3fmode=amp

Oh shoot! You guys! You have let me down. I totally missed Madonna's melancholic covid musings from her rose petal strewn luxury bath about how this is the Great Equaliser.

Phew. I am all caught up now. Video at link.

otnomart · 31-03-2020 06:55AM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

My personal travel history is anecdotal evidence of how people might have travelled without knowing the full extent of the disease. My point is that there could have been an Irish person in Wuhan from day one of the outbreak that returned on day two. We just don't know, and there would have been no way of preventing that person from returning. This "close the border" thing is a nonsense in my mind. We have over 150 countries infected, the virus is in the community already. Yes, restrict those who enter but it's here and we have to try to manage it as best as possible.

Agree with you.
From the New York Times; How the Virus Got Out
"… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

As an example: Italy stopped all flights to/from China on 31 January, and immediately started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights, to catch anyone with a fever coming indirectly via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris.
Still, the virus arrived to Italy (via Germany).

Now if you look at the samples sequences from the first cases in Ireland,
in Nextstrain,

-a Dublin one was originated via the Netherlands and/or Bavaria (via Italy)
-one from Limerick was originated via England and/or the Netherlands
-another one from Limerick is 100% from the Netherlands
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland

dougm1970 · 31-03-2020 07:00AM

this makeshift hospital in central park in new york, made up of tents...how strong are those ?..weatherproof-wise ..wind etc ?...how are they heated ?....if the ground is wet outside and gets muddy with all the foot traffic from staff, how do they keep inside of tents clean ?

otnomart · 31-03-2020 07:01AM

makeandcreate wrote: »

My daughters school arrived back from Lombardy Feb 16 - no testing, restrictions or isolation was done.

On 16 February, it was still wrongly assumed that the outbreak in Germany had been fully contained and that the virus was not circulating in Europe.
A 33-year-old otherwise healthy German businessman (Patient 1) became ill with a sore throat, chills, and myalgias on 24 January 2020. Before the onset of symptoms, he had attended meetings with a Chinese business partner at his company near Munich on 20 and 21 January.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.105...d-mnX3d9F_WRzM
But there was a case in La Gomera, Canaries Islands detected on 31 January - imported from Germany
https://de.euronews.com/2020/02/02/infizierter-deutscher-auf-la-gomera-wohlauf
Then we have the first recorded death in Europe, in Valencia on 13 February - but again that was diagnosed as preumonia and discovered only in early March.
https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-03-...ronavirus.html

DOCARCH · 31-03-2020 07:02AM

US now has more than double the confirmed cases China had, and, more deaths now in the US than 9/11.

Noted Trump has been a little quieter/more serious (realistic) in the last 24 hours!

tigger123 · 31-03-2020 07:14AM

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

Talisman · 31-03-2020 07:33AM

otnomart wrote: »

Agree with you.
From the New York Times; How the Virus Got Out
"… and over 15,000 people went to Bangkok, the most popular destination."
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...gtype=Homepage

As an example: Italy stopped all flights to/from China on 31 January, and immediately started checking temperatures at Arrivals from all other International flights, to catch anyone with a fever coming indirectly via London, Amsterdam, Frankfurt, Paris.
Still, the virus arrived to Italy (via Germany).

Now if you look at the samples sequences from the first cases in Ireland,
in Nextstrain,

-a Dublin one was originated via the Netherlands and/or Bavaria (via Italy)
-one from Limerick was originated via England and/or the Netherlands
-another one from Limerick is 100% from the Netherlands
https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland

The data on the Nextstrain website is enlightening and exposes the gaps in the idea that stopping flights from Italy would have achieved the intended outcome.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland&l=radial

I find the radial presentation the best for seeing what you're looking at. From the data there is a 100% confidence that it was in the UK during the period January 17 - 27. You see this by looking at the leg that heads towards 10/11 if you visualise the radial graph as a clock.

gozunda · 31-03-2020 07:46AM

Talisman wrote: »

The data on the Nextstrain website is enlightening and exposes the gaps in the idea that stopping flights from Italy would have achieved the intended outcome.

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_country=Ireland&l=radial

I find the radial presentation the best for seeing what you're looking at. From the data there is a 100% confidence that it was in the UK during the period January 17 - 27. You see this by looking at the leg that heads towards 10/11 if you visualise the radial graph as a clock.

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy. And yes people could still have been repatriated and quarantined.

As to which particular clade each strain of the virus belongs to. No doubt there were people from London / UK etc holidaying in those same hotspots in Northern Italy.

Restrictions on flights would certainly have helped here ...

YFlyer · 31-03-2020 07:50AM

tigger123 wrote: »

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

It is moving clockwise. This be negative direction.

leavingirl · 31-03-2020 07:53AM

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Flippyfloppy · 31-03-2020 07:53AM

tigger123 wrote: »

Curve is beginning to move in a positive direction, as per the headline on this morning's Irish Times.

It all seems to be worth the effort!

They are seriously behind on test results, a lot of people are waiting upwards of a week. That could explain our wonderful looking curve!

Quantum Erasure · 31-03-2020 07:54AM

gozunda wrote: »

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy....

isn't the point to flatten the curve so that our hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

I don't think we're near that point, or on track to reach that point at all.

this isn't like SARS where you have a big outbreak in a couple of countries and then it burns itself out. It's going to affect the majority of the population one way or the other, and we're doing a good job of limiting the speed at which it transmits, so...

DOCARCH · 31-03-2020 07:57AM

Flippyfloppy wrote: »

That could explain our wonderful looking curve!

Agreed. Ireland is doing a lot of testing, but does not appear to be processing those tests very well. Tests are not much good without results!

Fergal Bowers said on Morning Ireland, what needs to be focused on, to give a true idea, is hospital admissions and ICU numbers (rather than test results and numbers of cases).

Fr_Dougal · 31-03-2020 07:58AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

I would not trust a study based on Chinese numbers.

YFlyer · 31-03-2020 08:02AM

Could be an increase of travel restrictions.

Gynoid · 31-03-2020 08:02AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

First time I have read the journal, is there a cure?

Is the "truth" you are welcoming the 45% of cases hospitalised are over 65?
You do know that means 55% of cases hospitalisèd are thus under 65, right?
And hopefully most people know that 65 is not all that old at all.
Hospitalised may not mean death, but for some it may mean lung tissue scarring and life limiting consequences.
Sorry, what was the truth slowly emerging again?

Vivienne23 · 31-03-2020 08:03AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Agreed. Ireland is doing a lot of testing, but does not appear to be processing those tests very well. Tests are not much good without results!

Fergal Bowers said on Morning Ireland, what needs to be focused on, to give a true idea, is hospital admissions and ICU numbers (rather than test results and numbers of cases).

What were the ICU numbers for yesterday ? We’re they released ?

Talisman · 31-03-2020 08:06AM

gozunda wrote: »

All lovely pictures for sure ..

It remains shuting down flights from known areas of infection would have limited transmission of the significant number of clusters here brought back from those travelling to and from Northern Italy. And yes people could still have been repatriated and quarantined.

As to which particular clade each strain of the virus belongs to. No doubt there were people from London / UK etc holidaying in those same hotspots in Northern Italy.

Restrictions on flights would certainly have helped here ...

My point in highlighting that mutation is that it pre-dates the first case that was identified in Europe.

There are also mutations in the Netherlands that came via the UK and not directly from China.

31-03-2020 08:07AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Phew, open up the restrictions immediately. At 1.38% Death rate only 27,000 people will die if 2 million catch this. That has really eased my fears

leavingirl · 31-03-2020 08:10AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I would not trust a study based on Chinese numbers.

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Roger_007 · 31-03-2020 08:11AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

I was surprised that the number of over 80s requiring hospitalisation was less than 20% of those infected. I would have thought that it would be higher. I was under the impression that the majority of over 80s who got Covid would have to be hospitalised.

DOCARCH · 31-03-2020 08:11AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Slowly the truth emerges

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-coronavirus-death-rate-5062190-Mar2020/#comments

Not sure there is anything new in that? Experts have been suggesting that death rate for sometime now.

JPCN1 · 31-03-2020 08:12AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/paddycosgrave/status/1244730196038647809?s=20

What a vile creature.

gozunda · 31-03-2020 08:12AM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

isn't the point to flatten the curve so that our hospitals aren't overwhelmed?

I don't think we're near that point, or on track to reach that point at all.

this isn't like SARS where you have a big outbreak in a couple of countries and then it burns itself out. It's going to affect the majority of the population one way or the other, and we're doing a good job of limiting the speed at which it transmits, so...

Replied to the wrong comment? No worries ...

31-03-2020 08:14AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

If you believe the pandemic figures are overblown, back it up with facts. An article stating that the death rate from Covid19 is 14 times that of flu does not back up your argument by the way

gozunda · 31-03-2020 08:20AM

Talisman wrote: »

My point in highlighting that mutation is that it pre-dates the first case that was identified in Europe.

There are also mutations in the Netherlands that came via the UK and not directly from China.

Didnt say they didnt btw. It remains restrictions on known hotspots would have helped limit clusters here.

Amazing how some are so resistant to any possible proactive management. And that's why we here with this pandemic. Odd that the WHO were screaming so vehemently that Chinese flights not to be restricted then - all the while China completely locked its own hotspots down and is closing down flights from countries now infected. We will never learn apparently ...

Gynoid · 31-03-2020 08:24AM

leavingirl wrote: »

Cognitive dissonance. Expect an internet blackout soon. The pandemic narrative being pushed by the Covid crew is leaking badly.

Will you be back soon to comment when there is no internet blackout?
I get so tired bringing in and out the tomato plants and shaving my family...

Gods Gift · 31-03-2020 08:28AM

Servant who walks royal dogs falls ill.

If Lizzie or Philip get this they would be fooked.
And they wouldn’t be allowed a fancy funeral.

cloudatlas · 31-03-2020 08:29AM

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Totally agree. The fact that there was Irish people who came back from Wuhan placed in quarantine in England for two weeks before returning to Ireland suggests that the same should have been done for people returning from Italy when it got serious here. There can be no argument.

Nobody did that it took hold in Italy so fast. Everybody on the Internet has the solutions now. Close the borders, test, quarantine all new arrivals, lockdown the country immediately.

Be right back · 31-03-2020 08:34AM

JPCN1 wrote: »

What a vile creature.

I would like to know where he gets his information from. No other media outlets appears to have it. I hope that it isn't true.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP