CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

Micky 32 · 29-03-2020 04:02PM

growleaves wrote: »

For context:

Influenza - estimated 650,000 deaths per year

Asian Flu - estimated 2 million deaths

Encephalitis lethargica - estimated 1.5 million deaths

Swine Flu - estimated between 150 and 500,000 deaths

Here's the thing. 30,000 does sound low in comparison but we're only a few months with this. If nothing is done what would you reckon the death toll from Covid would be by the end of the year? it's too early for comparisons.

holyhead · 29-03-2020 04:03PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

Every 20 posts or so someone compares the U.K. to Ireland. The two cannot be compared different population sizes and density. No idea about Cheltenham but the first case in Northern Ireland travelled through Dublin airport as Ireland had not closed it's border. There is no right or wrong approach in this crisis. These comparisons are not helpful.

Yes there is a wrong approach. Boris was happy to knock off old people in the insane pursuit of herd immunity. He changed tack thankfully! I'm simply saying that our Govt is serving us well in this crisis and sometimes you have to point out situations where others are not handling something well to make your point. This isn't about Brit bashing or hating the US.

Ralphyroo · 29-03-2020 04:04PM

Marsden35 wrote: »

If psoriasis counts as an underlying condition, then we're all f*cked. I've got sinus issues and take a steroid nasal spray, but discontinued use as soon as the first case was confirmed in the UK. Got my wits about me

It's the treatment for psoriasis that's the problem, not the condition. A lot of people with psoriasis are in the group asked to cocoon because they are on immunosuppressants

growleaves · 29-03-2020 04:06PM

Death rate of flu is about 0.2%
Death rate of Covid-19 is about 3%

No the death rate of Covid-19 is unknown. In Australia the death rate of those tested positive for covid-19 is 0.393% so far. When this is over we'll be able to average the universal death rates and get a true number.

For context the death rate of the Black Death was 60% (admittedly that is the highest estimate).

igCorcaigh · 29-03-2020 04:06PM

DubInMeath wrote: »

For some people money is life.

My dad did work on a stockbrokers house in the late 70s early 80s, an apprentice on the job asked him for tips on making money and the broker told him to take his tools and throw them in the nearest river as he would only make it by buying and selling.

I don't know what happened to the apprentice apart from he emigrated to Australia, but the broker ended up killing himself after his investments went tits up.

Just...

Nowt as queer as folk.

cloudatlas · 29-03-2020 04:08PM

holyhead wrote: »

Yes there is a wrong approach. Boris was happy to knock off old people in the insane pursuit of herd immunity. He changed tack thankfully! I'm simply saying that our Govt is serving us well in this crisis and sometimes you have to point out situations where others are not handling something well to make your point. This isn't about Brit bashing or hating the US.

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

owlbethere · 29-03-2020 04:09PM

holyhead wrote: »

I see a poster whining about how the Government is handling this crisis. All I can say is I would rather be here than in the UK or the USA. Yes the Government have made mistakes but the said poster also omitted the extent to which idiotic behaviour by people, i.e. going to cheltenham, also contributed to the crisis we are living through. I think our Government is doing right by the country and us as a people.

100% spot on with this. I'm not a fan of FG but seeing what they have in the states and in the UK, I think we are lucky we have some one half decent to lead us out from this. They were slow to act and implement decisions in the beginning but they moved.

Spot on about the second part too about people bearing some sort of personal responsibility too. I know if I had plans for Cheltenham or plans for a holiday or a cruise - the risk would be too much and I wouldn't do it. I'd probably lose money but I wouldn't care.

threeball · 29-03-2020 04:09PM

Talisman wrote: »

Instagram profiles in Italy have been used to identify individuals who have violated the quarantine

Governments could track COVID-19 lockdowns through social media posts

Good, stupid enough to go out and even more stupid to record it. There should be an option to report too. Stupid people deserve to pay for their idiocy, society has been carrying them far too long

igCorcaigh · 29-03-2020 04:09PM

growleaves wrote: »

No the death rate of Covid-19 is unknown. In Australia the death rate of those tested positive for covid-19 is 0.393% so far. When this is over we'll be able to average the universal death rates and get a true number.

For context the death rate of the Black Death was 60% (admittedly that is the highest estimate).

Yes. We may never know the true mortality rate, even in this modern era.

But it will vary according to the context too. We are only now seeing ICU spaces fill up. This will be a factor in the equation.

pH · 29-03-2020 04:10PM

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.

(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).

(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?

(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

RobertKK · 29-03-2020 04:11PM

owlbethere wrote: »

100% spot on with this. I'm not a fan of FG but seeing what they have in the states and in the UK, I think we are lucky we have some one half decent to lead us out from this. They were slow to act and implement decisions in the beginning but they moved.

Spot on about the second part too about people bearing some sort of personal responsibility too. I know if I had plans for Cheltenham or plans for a holiday or a cruise - the risk would be too much and I wouldn't do it. I'd probably lose money but I wouldn't care.

Why compare to bad examples?
To make it look better?

Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

iwillyeah1234 · 29-03-2020 04:11PM

NHS England have announced the death of a frontline consultant , age 55, in Derbyshire , from covid19. He passed away on Saturday night.

He is the first NHS fatality from Corona.

weldoninhio · 29-03-2020 04:11PM

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Leo’s PR team is working then.

Gynoid · 29-03-2020 04:12PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html/ampRFA
Based on cremation rates, deaths from COVID 19 in Wuhan may be as high as 40,000

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-boris-johnsons-government-reportedly-furious-with-china-2020-3?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T
British government believe cases in China may be 40 times higher than official figures

Jesus

Blueshoe · 29-03-2020 04:12PM

pH wrote: »

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.

(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).

(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?

(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

Is there an Irish one? This being Ireland and all I'd be interested.

BanditLuke · 29-03-2020 04:12PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

My mother just told me she was in Tesco yesterday and was chatting to the cashier when a couple of men paid for a few items and LICKED the notes before handing them to the cashier. POND SCUM. :mad::mad::mad:

I wouldn't be against a "The Running Man" type scenario (children of the 80's wil understand) for these vermin. We all need some entertainment in these difficult times.

Marsden35 · 29-03-2020 04:12PM

First confirmed death in Syria from Corona.

J. Marston · 29-03-2020 04:13PM

This is bullshít weather for a quarantine, not a cloud in the sky. Where's the rain when you want it?

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 29-03-2020 04:14PM

Happy4all wrote: »

Where? Presume security guard and Garda were called?

The west of Ireland. I’m not sure what happened after that. But what kind of miscreant do you have to be to do that?

Gynoid · 29-03-2020 04:14PM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Well maybe that's were I differ. Whether it's next week, or next decade, and same for my family, so be it.

Ahhh, sweet, sweet fatalism on a sunny Sunday afternoon...

holyhead · 29-03-2020 04:14PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

Please outline for me how he has changed tack. I'm really curious now?

Mervyn Skidmore · 29-03-2020 04:14PM

RobertKK wrote: »

Why compare to bad examples?
To make it look better?

Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

Ireland is nothing like Taiwan either. People need to forget this notion that being an island means anything.

BanditLuke · 29-03-2020 04:16PM

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Point our exactly how he's "risen massively"

Also lots of health care officials and governments around the world are working tirelessly btw.

What Username Guidelines · 29-03-2020 04:16PM

pH wrote: »

Some graphs of UK figures (up to and including today)

The projections are based on a simple SIR model, and are meant to be indicative and informational only. Blue lines/marks are actual data, orange is prediction and trend lines.

(1)How is the UK's daily increase in 'reported cases' changing over time?(including a linear regression trend line).

(2) What happens if this daily trend from the linear regression(above) is fed into an SIR model?

(3) And sadly what happens if deaths remain in proportion to the 'reported cases' in the historical data?

Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

rossie1977 · 29-03-2020 04:16PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

The truth is the British government have been acting on scientific advice throughout and changed their approach when it was modelled not to be the right way. Leo has also changed tack very quickly over the last few days but that isn't written up as a mistake because there is a bias at work here.

UK government completely ignored WHO advice for weeks.

RobertKK · 29-03-2020 04:17PM

whiskeyman wrote: »

Yes they didn't do a great job looking after healthcare.
Yes they didn't invest more.

But how they've handled this crisis has been excellent in my opinion.
So many working tirelessly. Harris, who I wasn't a big fan of before, has risen massively.

Excellent in making it worse than it needed to be, this has led and will lead to far more deaths that could have been avoided.

Simon Harris said it was fine for people from Northern Italy to be "out and about" in Dublin when the virus was ravaging Lombardy at the time.
No one including Irish people coming from Northern Italy were quarantined and this is where initial cases came from.

This is not good leadership in health, it is selective memory by people.
It has cost lives.

owlbethere · 29-03-2020 04:17PM

dublin99 wrote: »

Spain returning faulty test kits from China:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8160931/Spain-returns-faulty-coronavirus-testing-kits-bought-Chinese-company.html

Holland recalls poor quality (fake?) masks from China:

https://www.euronews.com/2020/03/29/netherlands-recalls-hundreds-of-thousands-of-defective-chinese-face-masks

Lots of these sweatshop type "sub contractors" producing face masks all over Asia. Look at this one in India:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QAWNautQMA

Do we assume the Chinese PPE are all up to standards?

Fcuking hell. I hope the batch of PPE that's due for us will be good quality.

iwillyeah1234 · 29-03-2020 04:19PM

Interesting presser in the U.K. right now.

Regional command centres being set up , using military planners , to co-ordinate all fire , ambulance , police and other emergency services.

growleaves · 29-03-2020 04:21PM

Fcuking hell. I hope the batch of PPE that's due for us will be good quality.

How dare you question the integrity of Chinese manufacturers.

/sarc

holyhead · 29-03-2020 04:21PM

In terms of updates and detailed reports I highly recommend the guardian uk newspaper site. It's excellent reading but harrowing.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03