CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

The ICU figure seems to chop and change daily re. cumulative or not. There were claims of 71 Friday in ICU.

briany wrote: »

What will Christmas look like in the wake of Coronavirus? We could be looking at something of a depressed economy at that time, but also because so many have missed lots of work and school, might those couple of weeks be treated just as a normal work/school period for everyone and not just those who work Christmas anyway?

Christmas music will be different this year. Chris Rea will be renaming and re-recording his classic, it'll be "Staying Home for Christmas".

timmy_mallet wrote: »

That's exactly what we need, an ego driving research, a claim been pushed through without adequate testing or, worse, hidden side-effects, fast-tracked FDA approval, and the same 97% of non-postivie test recipients lining to be injected by whatever it is that the mad pharma/scientist wanted to be first to market with.

Remember Irish class action suit regarding problems in the swine flu vaccine just concluded last November. That was also rushed through.

Deleted User wrote: »

Odd thing to worry about in March...
But Christmas will still be Christmas. We’re not going to keep the kids locked in for weeks or months and then tell them Santa isn’t real.

It's not odd to ask what the knock-on effects will be.

Health minister Simon Harris has said new lockdown measures which kicked in at midnight last night cannot be in place for “a very long period of time”.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar yesterday evening announced strict new rules which see that people must stay in their homes until Easter Sunday, April 12, apart from a few essential exceptions.

Simon Harris expressed hope there could be some relaxation of the measures after an initial two-week period of enforcement, but he warned that life will not be returning to normal in the short term.

Speaking on RTɒs Radio One weekend special of Morning Ireland this morning, minister Harris said that the strict measures, which kicked in at midnight, are “so significant” that they cannot be in place for “a very long time”.

“The measures that we put in place last night are so significant that they cannot be kept in place too long, you cannot ask people to sustain this for a very long period of time,” he said.

“That’s why we are really asking people to double down for the next two weeks, it’s going to be tough.”

He said that life will not “return to normal” once the two week period is over.

“Will we be in a position on April 12 where life in Ireland will return to normal? Absolutely not, let’s be honest with each other, these measures that we’re going to need to continue to work at,” he explained.

“Do we hope to be in a position in two weeks’ time to say that we made progress and some of the measures can be tweaked or moved or changed? Absolutely,” he said.

He acknowledged that this is may be a difficult time for people who have lost their jobs and are feeling worried or anxious.

“We do have to strip back all of the noise and actually remind people what we are trying to do here- we’re trying to keep each other alive.”

He said that the numbers of people in ICU units in the coming days will rise.

“Over the next number of days, we’re going to see that significantly rise, because remember, people who are admitted to ICU over the next week probably already have this infection,” he said.

“But we would expect, and our medical advisors will expect, that these measures that we’ve now put in place could start to slow down that curve in about 10 days to two weeks, that’s what we’re working towards.”

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/new-coronavirus-restrictions-not-sustainable-for-a-long-period-simon-harris-39083391.html

Christy42 wrote: »

While each death is tragic we have too few to really extrapolate to a larger population. Hopefully we won't get enough to properly track.

Also some seem to think it is accurate because bad cases are being found but I have my doubts that every death is being tracked in all countries. Many will be missed if they don't test in time. See the lack of test kits in some states in the US.

I take your point on the numbers. They need to be interpreted with caution especially when low. Nevertheless I think it is a useful number to keep an eye on going forward.

froog wrote: »

i'm not sure per capita comparisons are valid. it will spread much faster in smaller countries. san marino and andorra for example top the charts at deaths and cases per capita.
i'm no statistician though, maybe some with experience on here would have a take on that.

No statistician myself either but I think per capita numbers may in some respects be useful in assessing a countries ability to cope with the virus. Obviously a lot of other factors have to be taken into account too.

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Agreed, this is a better measure. Ireland can't be on the same trajectory as Spain in overall deaths. We really need to ralise our population and population density is far less. We have 1 mid size mid density city the rest of our cities are small with low population density.

It is very unlikely that we will see 700 people die in a single day here. More likely at the peak of this we will see maybe 50-100 people die in a day. Which is still dramatic given we are a small country.

I would guess that lifestyle is also important. We have a low population density but how many interactions does a rural dweller have in Ireland in a day? Possibly we have a lot of rural dwellers who live something more akin to a suburban lifestyle.

Also with regard to urban dwellers I think we probably have a lot more in house shares, room shares and the like than, say, Sweden.

Yesterday marked the smallest % increase in new cases and deaths in Italy to date.