CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

So how many do we think will unfortunately die in Ireland from thisyoud have to imagine it'll be a couple of Thousand in the best case,
Its going to be one of the saddest years in a very very long Tim

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Well maybe that's were I differ. Whether it's next week, or next decade, and same for my family, so be it.

So you'd have no issue at all if your entire family is wiped out in a fortnight? What's the point of living at all in that case?

Around testing numbers
if we look at a number of countries around the EU
picking a few places that had first recorded cases around the same time as Ireland

Netherlands Feb 26
Switzerland Feb 24
Austria Feb 24
Denmark Feb 26
Ireland Feb 28

now look at the number of deaths
Netherlands 639
Switzerland 264
Austria 68
Denmark 65
Ireland 36

cases detected per death
Netherlands 15.2
Switzerland 53.3
Austria 121
Denmark 33.8
Ireland 67

S.Korea is listed by many as the gold standard for testing and they only found 65.8 cases per death very close to Ireland

no country is finding all the cases
but you can see that Austria is finding a lot more that the others and Ireland is in 2 place in the EU for detecting cases per death for contrays that started at around the same time
a contrary that we know are not testing is the UK they have 15.7 cases detected per death.
France is other contray that has 2314 deaths but only 16.2 cases found for each death

Germany numbers are 133.3 cases found per death, but i do not know if they are just very good or not recording all deaths

how we deal with the growth and how we slow it are not the same as detecting the number of cases but we are testing better than most is seems

From the HSE press confrence
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0329/1127114-hse-briefing-covid/
A total of 10,700 people are currently waiting for Covid-19 tests here, with over 4,000 waiting to get a test appointment.
Ireland is now testing around 5,000 people a day.
The HSE said it had secured 60,000 more test kits this week and is expecting to procure a further 100,000 a week going forward.

The HSE had already tested more than 18K of people.
the total number of tested people should be close to 30K+ in the next few days



an interesting brake down of how many cases based on a death rate or 1% and 3%
if you believe that 1-3% die from covid19, then you can workout how many cases there should be right now without any testing
there is a 7-10 day delay allowing for people getting sick and the avg time to death from turning up at hospital
if you look at the UK who we know are not testing a lot they should have maybe 100,000K cases, where if you look at south Korea it shows about 14K cases for a recorded 10K
Ireland is not too bad with 2.4K confirmed but maybe 3.6K based on 1% rate.
all of this is not 100% correct and should not be read like that it's more about trying to estimate how many cases there could be.



Normalized by Population
using Normalized by Population can have risks when working out numbers, look at China from a total of 1.6 billion the numbers are very low but the infection was only around one arae of 50 million people
the same can be said of Italy or Spain most cases are around a small parts
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/
Regards

Coyote

A little bit of music from me as part of the social isolating thing. A video I made from Ireland for the group can't seem to post it. https://www.facebook.com/niall.mcquaid.7/posts/10218968526298312?comment_id=10218968575779549&reply_comment_id=10218968584099757&notif_id=1585491540920610&notif_t=feed_comment&ref=notif

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

Ring the Gards, you might save someone's life or even alot from serious illness

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Still no official death toll from the Tiananmen Square protests over thirty years later. No I wouldn't accept their figures either.

Indeed.

Although one query I have about the situation in China is regarding the WHO. Surely they have "boots on the ground" there, so would they be complicit in a cover up in China?

Still it is very suspicious

1200 ICU beds is a fantastic number. Hopefully we won't come anywhere near to that.

Strazdas wrote: »

The suspicion would be with these young people sadly dying that they have undiagnosed medical problems and were not as healthy as they appeared.

It says in the article he had psoriasis, most treatments are immunosuppressive

voluntary wrote: »

The last week the media were saying we're going to do 15,000 tests per day from this week. This week just ends today and I'm reading only around 5,000 tests per day is being done. What happened to the additional planned 10,000?

They said in the coming weeks. It wouldn't be possible to go from 1500 a day to 15000 a day in a week.

OUTOFSYNC wrote: »

Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

The Gardai should be called immediately. I went for a walk near my home earlier and a Garda drove past and stopped to ask me where I was heading. They have no right to be having a party right now.

timmy_mallet wrote: »

So somewhere around 2x as deadly as flu.

Death rate of flu is about 0.2%
Death rate of Covid-19 is about 3%

Dr. Fauci is not very good at mathematics if he thinks that 3% is twice 0.2%

Also far more people are likely to get Covid-19 than flu given that the R0 of seasonal flu is between 0.9–2.1, and Covid-19 is 1.4–3.9.

This information is easily available.