CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

A Dub in Glasgo · 29-03-2020 02:52PM

recyclebin wrote: »

Plane spotters still out in force by the looks of it!

I counted 2 in that video clip and they may be media. Not really 'out in force'

wakka12 · 29-03-2020 02:53PM

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

Nobody has natural immunity to an unknown/new virus. You never get flu because you either had the strain before or were lucky enough to simply not catch it, its nothing to do with your natural immunity to it, and absolutely no bearing on whether you will catch covid or not. Perhaps you do have a strong immune system and may suffer mild or no smptoms from flu and or covid, but that is not the same thing as being immune.

People sneeze even when they are not sick, hay fever, nose irriation, something spicy/some water up your nose, whatever.

briany · 29-03-2020 02:54PM

wakka12 wrote: »

It may not be decreasing but it is plateauing in many countries, and that was the goal. A sudden drop was never expected, it is a flattening of a curve, not stopping cases dead in their tracks

So, if we get this thing to plateau, then that's obviously a step in the right direction. The question then comes as to what the next step is. People will want restrictions on movement eased as soon as possible, but what good will that be if it causes a worse second wave which necessitates another lockdown as bad as before? That's where we need to be careful.

owlbethere · 29-03-2020 02:54PM

Marsden35 wrote: »

What's tourism like in Ireland during January - March? I'd suspect low. I think this was an advantage Ireland and the likes of Sweden, Denmark and Norway have. Little in the way of seeding. You almost certainly won't see an Italy/Spain style outbreak in any of these countries. Although Sweden seems to be taking quite a lax attitude and may pay for it through community spread.

I hope you are right but I fear it might be only a matter of time but it explodes on us here. Community transmission is occurring and really some things I see, well there's no cure for stupid and yeah, we're fcuked.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 29-03-2020 02:54PM

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

Chances are that someone with covid 19 will touch stuff they coght on. Then the virus will be on their hand. If they then touch something it will be on the surface. If you then touch the surface you can get it.

Bit cynical · 29-03-2020 02:55PM

Coyote wrote: »

Hi deisedevil

it's not a spreadsheet but i think it covers what you are looking for

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Regards

Coyote

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:

On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in. The death figures lag behind.

Source: http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

donfers · 29-03-2020 02:56PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Well at least postive cases cant go up if you cant test anyone!!!!!!

which will increase morale, thereby reducing levels of anxiety and stress, thereby lessening damage to the immune system...all part of the masterplan, please bear with us, we are operating on a level way beyond the day to day thinking of mere mortals

GooglePlus · 29-03-2020 02:57PM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

So somewhere around 2x as deadly as flu.

How did you come to that?

JeffKenna · 29-03-2020 02:57PM

donfers wrote: »

which will increase morale, thereby reducing levels of anxiety and stress, thereby lessening damage to the immune system...all part of the masterplan, please bear with us, we are operating on a level way beyond the day to day thinking of mere mortals

A cunning plan indeed.

SharpshooterTom · 29-03-2020 02:57PM

Just to emphasise how bad the situation is in New York, deaths as of yesterday:

New York +277
Other 49 states +238

ettravel · 29-03-2020 02:57PM

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

cameramonkey · 29-03-2020 02:58PM

ettravel wrote: »

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

Seems Ireland has no test kits left either.

Christy42 · 29-03-2020 03:00PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. It provides for figures normalized by population. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:

On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in.

While each death is tragic we have too few to really extrapolate to a larger population. Hopefully we won't get enough to properly track.

Also some seem to think it is accurate because bad cases are being found but I have my doubts that every death is being tracked in all countries. Many will be missed if they don't test in time. See the lack of test kits in some states in the US.

Mervyn Skidmore · 29-03-2020 03:00PM

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

People infected/healthy sneeze anyway. As far as I know there is no proof of any immunity.

pjohnson · 29-03-2020 03:00PM

88 in ICU would be cumulative again? So why say in ICU today?

The figures are a mess.

igCorcaigh · 29-03-2020 03:01PM

ettravel wrote: »

omg, just watching CNN news interview with US governors and they still have no test kits and very limited testing, in some states, a joke.

The world's most "developed" nation.
We have some serious rethinking to do.

SharpshooterTom · 29-03-2020 03:01PM

Spain already at +546 at noon is not a good sign, might surpass +1000 later today.

thecomedian · 29-03-2020 03:01PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

How did you come to that?

Something like over 50000 die from flu in the US.

kilkenny31 · 29-03-2020 03:02PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:

On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in.

Agreed, this is a better measure. Ireland can't be on the same trajectory as Spain in overall deaths. We really need to ralise our population and population density is far less. We have 1 mid size mid density city the rest of our cities are small with low population density.

It is very unlikely that we will see 700 people die in a single day here. More likely at the peak of this we will see maybe 50-100 people die in a day. Which is still dramatic given we are a small country.

Reckless Abandonment · 29-03-2020 03:02PM

briany wrote: »

So, if we get this thing to plateau, then that's obviously a step in the right direction. The question then comes as to what the next step is. People will want restrictions on movement eased as soon as possible, but what good will that be if it causes a worse second wave which necessitates another lockdown as bad as before? That's where we need to be careful.

I'd say and relaxing will be done slowly. Any business currently closed will be let reopen if they can follow the same system shops and pharmacies are using at the moment. . Customer separation etc. I can also see this been fine tuned. Anyone with a closed business would be advised to see if something similar can be done in theirs. As I can't see them getting back open without it.

FVP3 · 29-03-2020 03:02PM

blackcard wrote: »

Are there any estimates of the percentage of the population that have an immune system that will prevent them from getting covid-19? I am lucky in that I never get the flu. Does this mean that I am less likely to get covid-19?
In the public information booklet issued by the HSE, it states that covid-19 may survive on surfaces if someone who has it coughs or sneezes on it. I thought that you could get the virus if you just touched a surface that had been touched by someone with the virus.?
In another part of the booklet, it states that sneezing is not a symptom for covid-19?

1) nobody is immune to everything. In fact its best to get some immunity over time by getting sick occasionally for common colds and flus. You may be asymptomatic though and had them without realising.
2) it could be transmitted by touching if the infected person had recently sneezed or coughed into his hand.
3) Sneezing doesnt seem to be that common but people could sneeze anyway with it, if they have some other allergy, or whatever.

expectationlost · 29-03-2020 03:03PM

do we run out of ICU beds for flu (plus complications) patients in normal (bad) flu year?

JP Liz V1 · 29-03-2020 03:03PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

Seems Ireland has no test kits left either.

Where are the test kits coming from, China? Can Ireland not manufacture any?

iguana · 29-03-2020 03:03PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

People need to be patient. It’s still very early days. Just because people want the restrictions lifted ASAP doesn’t mean it’s going to be possible. There are still many unknowns and it will take a while to make breakthroughs and make sense of the considerable data being generated. Research is laborious. This could go on for months and months and people need to adjust to the idea of that.

Research requires accurate data which we are working without. It's not about being patient or not. It's about wanting to do this as correctly as possible. It's about doing this while causing the least harm possible. Both harm from the virus and harm from having our economies stop. And the ****ing massive harm that 'cocooning' will cause to the mental health of the vulnerable. Loneliness is deadly to the elderly. Not as deadly as the virus but we shouldn't be cutting vulnerable people off from their loved ones for a second longer than we have to. And equally we shouldn't be lifting restrictions earlier than we should. But we are very, very unlikely to be able to make those accurate calls because we just don't know as much as we had the potential to.

Widdensushi · 29-03-2020 03:04PM

ThomasFlynn wrote: »

Spain already at +546 at noon is not a good sign, might surpass +1000 later today.

the majority of their numbers are in early in day usually

FVP3 · 29-03-2020 03:04PM

Reckless Abandonment wrote: »

I'd say and relaxing will be done slowly. Any business currently closed will be let reopen if they can follow the same system shops and pharmacies are using at the moment. . Customer separation etc. I can also see this been fine tuned. Anyone with a closed business would be advised to see if something similar can be done in theirs. As I can't see them getting back open without it.

I have a feeling that people who can WFH better get used to it for months. I dont see pubs being opened for months either, and not without major social distancing efforts, ie a low maximum number of people allowed in, probably only by booking.

owlbethere · 29-03-2020 03:04PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Chances are that someone with covid 19 will touch stuff they coght on. Then the virus will be on their hand. If they then touch something it will be on the surface. If you then touch the surface you can get it.

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 29-03-2020 03:04PM

stockshares wrote: »

Can anyone confirm if Paul Reid said Hse is testing 5000 people a day currently

and

has testing has been suspended in Cork and Dublin today because there's no more testing kits.

The first point was said this morning. Yes.

Testing has been suspended due to a shortage of specialised equipment. I am unsure if this is test kits or ppe for staff.

froog · 29-03-2020 03:04PM

Bit cynical wrote: »

Great resource. One thing missing from a lot of these charts is figures per unit population and this site provides it. Here's a logorithmic chart of deaths per 1 million population with Ireland highlighted:

On this basis Ireland isn't doing to well, following a similar track to Spain. However the measures introduced by the government still need time to kick in. The death figures lag behind.

i'm not sure per capita comparisons are valid. it will spread much faster in smaller countries. san marino and andorra for example top the charts at deaths and cases per capita.

i'm no statistician though, maybe some with experience on here would have a take on that.

FVP3 · 29-03-2020 03:06PM

owlbethere wrote: »

I think shops need to implement a new policy. Something like - if you touch, you buy policy or to put it another way - buy what you touch.

Was thinking that yesterday, I often look at best before dates by picking things up but didn't do it yesterday. So shops need to make that more visible somehow and yes, if you touch you buy.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Comments

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03