CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

Bob24 · 29-03-2020 09:35AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

The Korean professor’s interview a few pages back agrees with what a few of us have been saying. Western governments and the WHO are saying mask shouldn’t be worn by the general public because they know they are in short supply and thus should be reserved for medical staff. It actually makes sense as medical staff is very exposed and if they become ill and can’t work it will exacerbate the over saturation of or health systems.

But at the end of the day their wording is bending the truth. The reality isn’t that masks are useless for the general public, but rather that with the limited supply we have we should reserve them for the most critical uses. So essentially as a policy it makes sense to reserve masks for medical staff, but the way Western government and the WHO word that policy it is just a manner for our governments to sugarcoat their lack of planning and our inability in the west to provide masks in sufficient quantities (as opposed to many Asian countries).

cloudatlas · 29-03-2020 09:35AM

Lavinia wrote: »

a week after my last going out i am okay so i suppose i can safely say that i am not.

however people can be positive and have no symptoms and walk around spreading it without even knowing it

If you were infected you’d be at risk for contracting it for at least 11.5. That’s my understanding.

careless sherpa · 29-03-2020 09:36AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

Sounds like someone wheeled out to excuse early inaction. Nothing to see here folks

29-03-2020 09:36AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because it is two topline figures ignoring how those figures were achieved. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Germany has a population of 83million. They can leverage that to get massive discounts on material, equipment, and building projects. They do not pay full price for their goods, we pay much more (per item) than they do

So their €5,300 in spending would, proportionally, cost us a lot more.

Oh and the biggest procurement issue.

We are a small(ish), lightly populated, and low density island on the far flung reaches of major transport networks. Everything costs more

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:36AM

s1ippy wrote: »

Great time to have this thought, 3:30am

What happens to all the nuclear reactors if there's nobody around to look after them?

The all have fail safes that kick in and shut down. I'd hope.

paul71 · 29-03-2020 09:37AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Because it is two topline figures ignoring how those figures were achieved. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Germany has a population of 83million. They can leverage that to get massive discounts on material, equipment, and building projects. They do not pay full price for their goods, we pay much more (per item) than they do

So their €5,300 in spending would, proportionally, cost us a lot more.

Ok I will do your research for you shall I,

Ireland 5528
Denmark 5205
Belgium 4840
Austria 5227
Canada 4753
Germary 5551
UK 4192
Isreal 2822
Iceland 4376
Swithzerland 7919
Italy 3391
Spain 3248
Finland 4033

Yeap It appears we drastically underfund our health service :rolleyes:

Roger_007 · 29-03-2020 09:37AM

Gynoid wrote: »

I am going to leave a small compartment in my mind open for the possibility that might be true.
But for now, with the images and records from ICUs in Spain, Italy, NYC, etc there is definitely something else going on. Something not normal. And those ICUs report it also includes younger people, say 30 to 50, being very very seriously ill. Some say 40% of very sick are not elderly. Maybe the younger dont get critically sick as often, but something very disturbing is going on.

The guy I was listening has analysed the actual data which he has access to. The rest of us are just listening to anecdotal evidence and jumping to conclusions. The are many deaths in every age group every year. Obviously most deaths occur in older age groups but younger people die also.

voluntary · 29-03-2020 09:37AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

The all have fail safes that kick in and shut down. I'd hope.

They all do and some of them probably work correctly.

jackboy · 29-03-2020 09:38AM

all about the mane wrote: »

No, they are not

Why are you spreading these untruths. They clearly significantly reduce the risk of spreading and contraction of the virus.

29-03-2020 09:38AM

jackboy wrote: »

In other words, they are effective.

No, they are not. They are effective in clinical setting at preventing aerosol particles.

Morons touching their masks, mouth, nose, surfaces etc will mean masks are less then useless. They become dangerous in giving said morons a false sense of security.

Padre_Pio · 29-03-2020 09:39AM

jackboy wrote: »

In other words, they are effective.

Nah, people are idiots.

You see them going around with gloves on, in reality they should be changed every time you touch something, not a hope is that happening.

Instead people get a false sense of security and take risks.

Akrasia · 29-03-2020 09:39AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.

the overall death rate from all causes is 100% and all of medicine is aimed at shifting the distribution time wise

My mother is not in great health ‘She has crohns disease amongst other things), she could die tomorrow, or she could live 20 more years, both she and I would prefer to shift her death time wise, neither of us think she will live forever

And it is ludicrous to suggest that collapsing the health system wouldn’t lead to extra death this year. Heart attack or strokes are not always fatal if they are treated on time, 80-90% survive with emergency treatment, not gonna get that care if the hospital is no longer functioning because it’s overloaded with respiratory disease

Same goes for all other health conditions, mortality will increase for treatable illnesses if the health service cannot provide those treatments because it’s overwhelmed

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:39AM

Lavinia wrote: »

in your opinion

Not just my opinion.

If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.
Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.
Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.
If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:40AM

jackboy wrote: »

Why are you spreading these untruths. They clearly significantly reduce the risk of spreading and contraction of the virus.

Link?

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:41AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No, they are not. They are effective in clinical setting at preventing aerosol particles.

Morons touching their masks, mouth, nose, surfaces etc will mean masks are less then useless. They become dangerous in giving said morons a false sense of security.

Exactly. It is proven that people touch their face more with a mask on. not less.

29-03-2020 09:41AM

paul71 wrote: »

Ok I will do your research for you shall I,

Ireland 5528
Denmark 5205
Belgium 4840
Austria 5227
Canada 4753
Germary 5551
UK 4192
Isreal 2822
Iceland 4376
Swithzerland 7919
Italy 3391
Spain 3248
Finland 4033

Yeap It appears we drastically underfund our health service :rolleyes:

It's not my research. You put forward the proposal, all research responsibility is yours. You defend the challenge.

And, as I said, our numbers would not stack up against countries of similar sizes (and make your argument more effective)

You're welcome, btw

Rob A. Bank · 29-03-2020 09:41AM

paul71 wrote: »

Ok I will do your research for you shall I,

Ireland 5528
Denmark 5205
Belgium 4840
Austria 5227
Canada 4753
Germary 5551
UK 4192
Isreal 2822
Iceland 4376
Swithzerland 7919
Italy 3391
Spain 3248
Finland 4033

Yeap It appears we drastically underfund our health service :rolleyes:

Why not quote the percentage of GDP we spend on our health services ?

iwillyeah1234 · 29-03-2020 09:41AM

Hopkins : 666,211 cases. Over 30,000 deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Padre_Pio · 29-03-2020 09:41AM

all about the mane wrote: »

Not just my opinion.
If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.

Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

Wash your hands before putting it on.
Wash your hands after disposing of it.

Change your mask regularly.
Never touch it, otherwise you need to change it.

People aren't doing this.

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:42AM

Deleted User wrote: »

At the very start, I kind of believed the people who said they don't stop it, till I realised they were talking about how they don't stop you getting it as much as it stops you spreading it. A very self-centered approach to placing a value on a mask's helpfulness.

Vietnam has on the spot fines now for not wearing one and the traffic police are checking for no masks now more than anything else. It's also one of the most successful countries in dealing with all of this because of the extreme measures they're taking, so I think every country should be following the more successful ones' leads even if it's a bit socially awkward.

As I've said before, if I were to sneeze in your direction, you'd wish I had a mask on to stop the phlegm.

No need to reinvent the wheel !00% agree. We don't have our own version of the internet. This one works.

jackboy · 29-03-2020 09:42AM

all about the mane wrote: »

Link?

You will have to do your own research. I won’t ask you for a link proving that masks give no protection against contracting the virus.

BanditLuke · 29-03-2020 09:42AM

jackboy wrote: »

If there was a plentiful supply of masks available the HSE would be recommending the public to always wear them outside the home. Don’t believe the lies that they are not effective.

Of course they are effective. In a few weeks time IF we have enough to go around the HSE will be advising on wearing them and the Gardai enforcing the wearing of them any time you leave your residence. It's about controling the narrative and not creating panic at the moment.

fits · 29-03-2020 09:45AM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

Hopkins : 666,211 cases. Over 30,000 deaths.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Oh my that is rocketing. It will be a million by Tuesday at that rate.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:46AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Of course they are effective. In a few weeks time IF we have enough to go around the HSE will be advising on wearing them and the Gardai enforcing the wearing of them any time you leave your residence. It's about controling the narrative and not creating panic at the moment.

No they won't

a_squirrelman · 29-03-2020 09:46AM

Any kind of mask or face covering (even a scarf) is mandatory in Czechia and Slovakia. The point being that anyone might have the virus and any kind of cover might hinder the spread if you are going to the shops or whatever.

voluntary · 29-03-2020 09:46AM

Everyone should wear masks today to avoid spreading this thing. There's no masks available though. Globally. So no responsible organization will recommend public to wear them. Simple.

29-03-2020 09:47AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Why not quote the percentage of GDP we spend on our health services ?

Because people like to cherry pick figures, which suit their arguments, rather than put forward a balanced and well investigated argument.

That would take effort and may not agree with their mindset.

Now, do I think our health service is underfunded? yes
Do I think that most of that underfunding is caused by administrative black holes? yes

Is all of my opinion from anecdotal evidence? Very much yes, but at least I can see/admit this.

Do I think that the HSE needs a proper audit, with appropriate powers of investigation, with a guaranteed action based on results? Yes

Will this ever happen? No, seen as political suicide.

Lavinia · 29-03-2020 09:47AM

all about the mane wrote: »

Not just my opinion.
If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection.

Wear a mask if you are coughing or sneezing.

Masks are effective only when used in combination with frequent hand-cleaning with alcohol-based hand rub or soap and water.

If you wear a mask, then you must know how to use it and dispose of it properly.

I can read the WHO website,

but if you - as some know-it-all here - are basing your ''opinion'' on premises that all people are morons (their words not mine) then we obviously have nothing to talk about

in other words - masks are effective if handled properly

paul71 · 29-03-2020 09:47AM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not my research. You put forward the proposal, all research responsibility is yours. You defend the challenge.

And, as I said, our numbers would not stack up against countries of similar sizes (and make your argument more effective)

You're welcome, btw

They do stack up to countries of similar, in fact they exceed them, seriously did you not read what you quoted?

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:48AM

Deleted User wrote: »

No, they are not. They are effective in clinical setting at preventing aerosol particles.

Morons touching their masks, mouth, nose, surfaces etc will mean masks are less then useless. They become dangerous in giving said morons a false sense of security.

spinbot

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03