CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

ThePopehimself · 28-03-2020 08:59PM

A stay on Health Insurance payments would be welcome for the next couple of months.

Health Insurance is currently worthless, I'm wondering why I'm paying it.

Poorside · 28-03-2020 08:59PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Would it be unethical of me to go to Tesco for beer? I have plenty of food. Might pick up some more to make it seem fairer. Herbs or something.

Crisps.

Kermit.de.frog · 28-03-2020 09:00PM

pH wrote: »

Did some graphs using today's data ...

Where we are:

Where we're going ...

When might we get there ...

(Treat this one with a grain of salt, it looks very optimistic)

Problem with trying to do this for Ireland is we are still working off relatively small samples per day at just a couple of hundred. You could have a day where suddenly there is 800 cases...

Tony Hoolohan said this himself - the samples are not yet big enough.

Cody montana · 28-03-2020 09:00PM

YFlyer wrote: »

Just at Aldi, Dublin road Limerick. Nice and quiet.

Same in cork.

Roger_007 · 28-03-2020 09:00PM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

A stay on Health Insurance payments would be welcome for the next couple of months.

Health Insurance is currently worthless, I'm wondering why I'm paying it.

It might be worthless for a long time.

paul71 · 28-03-2020 09:01PM

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

I'm grand. I panic bought 12,000 cans when Leo made the announcement on Patrick's day.

I bought 12, some of them will date expire before I get to them.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 28-03-2020 09:01PM

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

voluntary · 28-03-2020 09:02PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/dbongino/status/1243891111921209344

I'm skeptical at this stage. I've seen several optimistic messages about potential effective drugs just to see them fading away.

otnomart · 28-03-2020 09:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Their new case numbers are falling.....they were reporting 11-12K a day this time last week

I hope they can turn this around now,

your blood would run cold reading some of the stories coming out from there

Italy has never had 11-12K cases a day.
See chart here
https://lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/#box_1

declanflynn · 28-03-2020 09:02PM

Coyote wrote: »

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

keep doing the charts, ignore that d...head

This is it · 28-03-2020 09:03PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

They're likely on ventilators...

wakka12 · 28-03-2020 09:04PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

This might a mad notion, but I'm going to put it out there anyway... (from my non-medically trained mind - so go easy)

Is it possible that these severe cases going into ICU, might be getting worse by being in an environment where the air is literally filled with high quantities of this virus from so many other patients?

I know they've already been infected, but can you become even worse by being exposed to large amounts of the virus in a cramped hospital ward?

I was reading about the Spanish Flu, and some people think the illness got much worse in overcrowded wards with soldiers during the war... and actually turned into a kind of supercharged virus. This is why some people believe that it was attacking strong healthy men and able to overwhelm their immune systems. There were other counter theories for this phenomenon too though.

And now we are starting to see more and more younger patients getting struck down with covid too. (of course not like on the scale of the Spanish Flu)

This was just rolling around in my head... probably a foolish notion!

I dont think its a mad notion I believe the deaths of several healthy young doctors have thought to be because of their exposure to such a high viral load multiple times

Rob A. Bank · 28-03-2020 09:04PM

Just listened to the news...

Who the hell came up with the advertising exec double speak "cocooning" ?

Have the powers that be considered the effects of this 'house arrest without trial' on the over 70s.

They have a one in five chance of dying due to coronavirus.

What chance have they without fresh air and exercise... DVT risk, pulmonary embolism, depression etc. ?

Less than one in five ?

It has been established that they will be triaged and not get a critical care bed or a ventilator if they present to hospital, no matter how ill they are.

What is the point in enforcing this charade ?

Beasty · 28-03-2020 09:06PM

Coyote wrote: »

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

You do realise your charts miss out one vital piece of information. It's information I'm not seeing anywhere, but without it we really cannot draw much in the way of conclusions

That piece of information is the number of tests undertaken. If today's increase is based on 4,500 tests it is actually very good news. If it's based on 2,000 to 2,500 tests it's bad news. They were upping the number of tests but it takes a few days for results to come through.

The graphs actually suggest similar numbers of tests throughout, which is quire worrying. If we see double the tests we may well start to see something in the order of 600 new confirmed cases each day

Has anyone seen the number of tests today's figures were based on?

Red for Danger · 28-03-2020 09:06PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's not telling us anything about 70 million people.

It's a snapshot of the center of the capital city in a country that recorded 319 new deaths today in hospitals (outside not recorded).

That's all it is.

If it was some random village elsewhere your point might have validity.

You're video the one you posted shows **** all high up or low down about whats happening in a country. It has zero info. It is a totally pointless video. It shouldn't shape anyone's opinion one way or another

Yet you posted it to make a point.

I'll say it again, everyone has a phone so if some rando, as happens, catches a video of a plane crash it doesn't make flying any more or less scary. It doesn't tell us anything

no.8 · 28-03-2020 09:07PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote:

I heard today Germany are doing 500k tests a week , wtf are we like !

Impressive but Germany has a population of 80 million....so best to work it out per capita

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 28-03-2020 09:07PM

This is it wrote: »

They're likely on ventilators...

I thought ventilators just helped aid you to breath mechanically... do they also stop you breathing in any air from around you?

Thargor · 28-03-2020 09:08PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

What is the point in enforcing this charade ?

Are you actually that slow that you cant grasp the concept of smoothing the curve instead of collapsing the health system? After all the efforts to explain it to you you still cant grasp it?

BanditLuke · 28-03-2020 09:08PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/dbongino/status/1243891111921209344

Sounds very promising

Spanish Eyes · 28-03-2020 09:08PM

I pay for private health care. I am delighted to hear private hospitals will now be part of the community effort in fighting this virus. I am not naive and suspect the Private Hospitals have entered into a lucrative contract with HSE for this. Whatever.

I don't want a refund.

Was thinking that health care as one tier based on need, might be a great thing in the long run.

I think current private hospitals should be reserved for elective procedures, and the HSE hospitals for urgent and critical care. Would that ever work.

podgeandrodge · 28-03-2020 09:08PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

Cant stand all these kind of total bull**** videos!!
70 million people live in france they're in lockdown for 11 or 12 days now. That video cherry picks the very worst place at the very worst time and no mention of the 70 million people who've been at home since the lockdown
Everybody has a camera in their pocket so all streets are covered at all times!!!
Its like filming a murder taking place in a country and posting online saying this is what life is like in X

I didn't even think the video really proved what the guy was trying to say. Nearly everyone in it seemed to be distancing except the guy taking the video.

MrMusician18 · 28-03-2020 09:10PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Just listened to the news...

Who the hell came up with the advertising exec double speak "cocooning" ?

Have the powers that be considered the effects of this 'house arrest without trial' on the over 70s.

They have a one in five chance of dying due to coronavirus.

What chance have they without fresh air and exercise... DVT risk, pulmonary embolism, depression etc. ?

Less than one in five ?

It has been established that they will be triaged and not get a critical care bed or a ventilator if they present to hospital, no matter how ill they are.

What is the point in enforcing this charade ?

Yet another contrarian. :rolleyes: how do ye manage to go about your day to day business with such an attitude?

The point is to try to keep the most vulnerable alive.

Roger_007 · 28-03-2020 09:10PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Just listened to the news...

Who the hell came up with the advertising exec double speak "cocooning" ?

Have the powers that be considered the effects of this 'house arrest without trial' on the over 70s.

They have a one in five chance of dying due to coronavirus.

What chance have they without fresh air and exercise... DVT risk, pulmonary embolism, depression etc. ?

Less than one in five ?

It has been established that they will be triaged and not get a critical care bed or a ventilator if they present to hospital, no matter how ill they are.

What is the point in enforcing this charade ?

I have an aunt who’s 76 and she maintains that nobody is going to ‘cocoon’ her. She walks 2 miles a day into the nearest village and she intends to continue. She said they could throw her in gaol if they want, she’d be no worse off anyway.

Coyote · 28-03-2020 09:12PM

Beasty wrote: »

You do realise your charts miss out one vital piece of information. It's information I'm not seeing anywhere, but without it we really cannot draw much in the way of conclusions

That piece of information is the number of tests undertaken. If today's increase is based on 4,500 tests it is actually very good news. If it's based on 2,000 to 2,500 tests it's bad news. They were upping the number of tests but it takes a few days for results to come through.

The graphs actually suggest similar numbers of tests throughout, which is quire worrying. If we see double the tests we may well start to see something in the order of 600 new confirmed cases each day

Has anyone seen the number of tests today's figures were based on?

Hi Beasty

yes total agree, I would much rather know we did 100K tests and found 1K people than 2K test and found 1K people infected.

but i'm not the HSE i don't know the numbers tested per day, I would add them if i could.

when I started doing the charts some people could not understand exponential growth or see how we would be in trouble, the original numbers for the no change was about 500K infected in a month

the charts and the numbers are not a promise of what is to happen just a guide to what might happen, all the numbers are there if people want to look at them

I also put a public version that people can edit themself and change the number to see what happens

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1DydhVnYCW8Wuig4P8v4DENjsdBctJc1IcbzvILaAYN8/edit?usp=sharing

Regards

Coyote

Kermit.de.frog · 28-03-2020 09:12PM

On first look you'd think France was doing a fair bit better than the UK on deaths but for some reason France is recording only those deaths that occur in a hospital setting.

Every country should be reporting this in the same way to avoid ambiguity.

Red for Danger · 28-03-2020 09:13PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I didn't even think the video really proved what the guy was trying to say. Nearly everyone in it seemed to be distancing except the guy taking the video.

I agree with that too

These videos are mostly bull**** its just kids try for a bit of notoriety
Wasn't there another bull**** one going around yesterday about shoppers in Limerick

Away With The Fairies · 28-03-2020 09:14PM

What world are we living in? A 17 year old in America died of this virus because he didn't have insurance. So fcuked up that they think so little of life.

28-03-2020 09:15PM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

A stay on Health Insurance payments would be welcome for the next couple of months.

Health Insurance is currently worthless, I'm wondering why I'm paying it.

I expect there will be some move from the insurance companies in the next week or so. They said something to this effect the other day - they wanted to see the details of the arrangements between the private hospitals and the HSE first.

Also, when this is over, there will be such a backlog of demand on HSE services that it may be especially useful to have private health cover.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 09:15PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I have an aunt who’s 76 and she maintains that nobody is going to ‘cocoon’ her. She walks 2 miles a day into the nearest village and she intends to continue. She said they could throw her in gaol if they want, she’d be no worse off anyway.

How many people has she infected to date?

Speak Now · 28-03-2020 09:15PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

Testing criteria being changed means we should see an increase.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03