CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

Un1corn wrote: »

The Chinese Communist Party hasn't told the truth since 1949. They lie about everything.
A good rule of thumb and how to know they are lying is if they are talking.

A bit like Trump then !

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It's mostly natural selection with some human selection. The virus kills old and weak people - that's a form of natural selection. The human element is that lucky doctors get to choose some deaths and some lives.

Strictly speaking it's not natural selection which as a process operates on the breeding age cohort.

After-thought there is nothing natural about any form of medical intervention.

Whatever it is it isn't genocide, which is means a deliberate policy designed to eliminate in whole or in part, a people, or nation.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's central Paris.

Exactly
What does that tiny video (which isn't even that bad)tell us about a country of 70 million people with millions of markets, walkways, parks, supermarkets, Shopping arcades
Over a period of 12 days

dpat1l wrote: »

Does anyone know why we only have 5 reported recoveries? ie, why are we either not reporting on the recovered cases, or why is it taking us so long to see anybody recover as opposed to dying? How do we have an 88% death rate of closed cases and no information to argue the contrary? Makes for very grim reading and I’d much rather see both sides of this

Because it is probably a waste of resources for the HSE (already stretched) to call everyone who has tested positive to check that they have recovered... particularly given that 90%+ of cases are mild and people just self isolate? The working assumption is presumably that if you test positive and aren’t in hospital 2 weeks later you have recovered.

The One Doctor wrote: »

No offence, but you're pulling these figures out of your arse just to scare people who don't understand stats or probability.

These numbers look impressive but they're built on faulty assumptions. Most of your log curves are based on the assumption that there's no lockdown.

You have no idea what's going to happen, you're just plugging numbers into Excel based in a few basic formulae.

Leave the guessing to the experts and stop spouting magical numbers. Are you related to Eddie Hobbs by any chance?

i'm not trying to scare people, they are 3 charts with what the difference are if we get the same growth each day, one that the growth drops slowly and the last one is people makeing a big effort to stop the growth rate.

currently we seem to be following closer to the lockdown that i had hoped.
i update the number and the growth rate each day, if i wanted scare people i would leave it at the 25% growth it was just over a week ago.

they are not magical numbers they are exponential growth with a slow down built in, the % for the other things like sick/ICU are the generally agreed numbers for Covid19, and the reported 500 ICU beds

they are a lot closer to realty than a lot of what people are saying on this thread, like "I think were over it" "gone in a week or two"

Regards

Coyote

Deleted User wrote: »

Part of that is probably because health workers are prioritised for test and rightly so. Due to their interactions with the public they levels of infection in health workers was always going to be higher, but also this suggest that the a more a lot more cases out there undetected.

Over 6400 HCPs in Italy have tested positive. 51 doctors have died in the past month.
The long term effects of Corona aren't well known, but lung fibrosis is a possiblilty.

FVP3 wrote: »

It is totally made up bollocks which reverberates around this thread like an echo chamber.

When I asked for a link, the link debunked the claim.

As for why Germany is experiencing lower death rates there are many explanations: because it hasn't been overwhelmed yet, because it spread amongst younger people. And so on.

Deaths are increasing there, however.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200318/germany-ramps-up-intensive-care-and-hospital-capacity-in-coronavirus-fight

I read last week Germany had 25k ICU beds and France had 5K, not sure how accurate the figures were as other sorces had them closer by ICU beds per 100k of population. A quick google found story above.
I've seen loads on here arguing over why German death rates are low and even sky news keep repoting that german death rates are artifically low because of testing ect.

They seem to have been the best equipped to deal with this in all of europe, I would also imagine that had the ability to increase this as needed. Nubmer of ICU beds with enough staff and equipment will make the greatest difference here.

I also seen Germany were taking in patients by helicopter grom italy and other surrounding regions, because they have spare capacity in their ICU wards
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-germany-italy/germany-treats-first-italians-as-coronavirus-care-crosses-borders-idUSKBN21B2GL

Red for Danger wrote: »

Exactly
What does that tiny video (which isn't even that bad)tell us about a country of 70 million people with millions of markets, walkways, parks, supermarkets, Shopping arcades
Over a period of 12 days

It's not telling us anything about 70 million people.

It's a snapshot of the center of the capital city in a country that recorded 319 new deaths today in hospitals (outside not recorded).

That's all it is.

If it was some random village elsewhere your point might have validity.

https://mobile.twitter.com/dbongino/status/1243891111921209344

New Home wrote: »

What would you call what's happening to elderly and frail people, then? Natural selection?

I doubt that 'natural selection' applies here.
As far as I know that has to do with reproduction and transmission of genes which may enable the new organisms to have a better chance of surviving to hand on the 'good' genes and so on and so on. It operates over long time spans.
People who beat the average life expectancy have been successful anyway.
But why should there be a term for 'what's happening in ICUs' etc.-it's just people's bodies and constitutions weakening from age and multiple infirmities and then expiring ...as has happened since the dawn of time.