CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

joe40 · 28-03-2020 03:27PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown isn't going to work, anyone with access to half a brain and a calculator can see this.

According to Varadkar we're already nearly at ICU capacity after a couple of thousand confirmed cases and a few weeks in.

Even if we assume that there's actually 10 times the number of confirmed cases in the country, then we've around 20,000 infected out of 4.8 million and we're at capacity.

So, if we want to spread this out so ICU's don't get overwhelmed and need 2 weeks for every 20,000 that are infected, that works out at maintaining a lockdown for 480 weeks.

Even if we ramp up the ICU spaces by 4 times, that's 120 weeks we need to lock down.

The economy will be fcuked after 4 months of this - and there won't be money to borrow.

We're doing nothing now other than prolonging the inevitable while fcuking the economy at the same time.

You're right anyone with access to half a brain probably will think like that.
Thankfully the medics leading this have access to full brains plus years of experience.
But please keep spouting nonsense here it passes the time...

yourdeadwright · 28-03-2020 03:27PM

limnam wrote: »

500?

I would have thought normally we're at about 80% capacity in ICU outside of covid.

+70 covid cases. Leaves very little room.

There was 257 i Last year in public hospitals and now the private section have opened up all there ones to be used

I believe it's 457 icu bed, 257 originally, 150 from private hospitals and a further 50 made operational by the HSE,

That's from reading different reports

Iv no idea how many are in use with non Covid cases

Curious_Case · 28-03-2020 03:27PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Of course it's unsustainable but hasn't a duration of 12 weeks been mentioned?

The lockdown will buy time to enable preparations to be ramped up.

If nothing is done, the number of people requiring ICU care will exceed the number of available ICU beds and so the FATALITY RATE WILL RISE.

Tandey · 28-03-2020 03:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not a Liverpool fan then?

I'll get me coat. Wait, where wilI I go?

Don’t go to Liverpool in the hope to see a premier league trophy anyway. Unless you enjoy disappointment.

ChikiChiki · 28-03-2020 03:28PM

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

Just found out the husband of a colleague of mine took his own life yesterday. He leaves behind a wife and six children. Invisible impact of this pandemic is/will be huge.

That is incredibly sad.

Suicide rates were bad before the crisis.

I think we will need a Mental Health Crisis Management planning running in parallel with our Covid 19 Crisis plan.

The fallout will be huge.

jackboy · 28-03-2020 03:28PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

**** the economy, **** the government, Let's save as many of our own people as we can, every day people, people you know, loved ones of us all, lifes saved from each and every community in this country means more to the people, the economy can wait

That’s fine. Are you ok with the nurses take home pay going through the floor when this crises is over?

BLIZZARD7 · 28-03-2020 03:28PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

What's the alternative that doesn't involve killing off tens of thousands?

The economy can wait, this isn't just an Ireland problem, it's a global one. Money is being printed on a massive scale, there will be no shortage of it.

WhiteMemento9 · 28-03-2020 03:28PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Do you think the penny just hasn't dropped for Bill Gates yet? The guy who predicted this 4 years ago as the biggest existential threat in his lifetime? The guy who has setup foundations to study this? The guy who has worked significantly with data-based teams that model outcome and study solutions from all angles? Maybe he is clueless about the economic impact?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHLJ0DaMIIc

Strazdas · 28-03-2020 03:29PM

The Army are saying if you see lots of military vehicles on the streets in the next couple of weeks, there's no need to worry : they will be delivering PPE to hospitals all around the country.

cefh17 · 28-03-2020 03:29PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Only the incredibly stupid cannot see and understand this.

What better options do you propose so Einstein?

Hobgoblin11 · 28-03-2020 03:29PM

Is the worst over in South Korea and Japan? Why are they bringing back new restrictions?

is_that_so · 28-03-2020 03:30PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Of course it's unsustainable but hasn't a duration of 12 weeks been mentioned?

The lockdown will buy time to enable preparations to be ramped up.

If nothing is done, the number of people requiring ICU care will exceed the number of available ICU beds and so the FATALITY RATE WILL RISE.

The money side is for 12 weeks, everything else will be reviewed as we hit dates, so next check will probably be about Easter.

Downlinz · 28-03-2020 03:30PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

The lockdown was sustainable and of great benefit in Wuhan, Hong Kong and South Korea. They're now in the process of getting back to normal having successfully contained the virus.

It's the people in the west who resist the necessary measures who are causing the issues and attempting to render the efforts futile.

recyclebin · 28-03-2020 03:30PM

When are we going to get a better breakdown of the cases. Dublin and Cork are too populated to just go to county level. If people knew where the clusters were they could take extra precautions and lock down further. 2km gets you a long way and past a lot of of people in populates areas.

Why are we not using the resources of Facebook, Google and Apple to track movements of cases. They all have huge workforce here in Ireland so could create apps in no time. They already track way too much of our movements anyway, all for marketing purposes. Why not use that resource to do something good for a change?

khalessi · 28-03-2020 03:30PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Do you understand what we are about to face. In NY one person is dying is dying every 17 minutes and hospitals are overwhelmed. It is described as hell only worse. https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/another-84-people-killed-by-coronavirus-in-new-york-city/

The point of the lockdown is to SLOW the SPREAD so we flatten a curve to help our hospitals. The hospitals will become overwhelmed we know that but we can lessen it by staying home for the most part.

We are about to be hit by a health tsunami of unprecedented proportions and we can help by changing our hobbies for a little while. Similar to how people used to use blackout curtains during bombing raids in war.

I know this does not suit your thinking but have a look around at your family and tell me which one you want to die. If the answer is none well then just sit down for a little while watch a movies exercise go for a short walk but help slow down the spread and flatten the curve.

I am asking you not to be so blind, as a nurse, as someone immuncompromised and as a relative of people with serious health issues. I want to be able to look at their faces when this is over. I want to be able to hug them again

Tandey · 28-03-2020 03:31PM

Mr.S wrote: »

Why don't you want to get stopped by the guards

Probably doesn’t want to catch a virus or a case.

Yester · 28-03-2020 03:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Not being funny but give serious thought that'its time to quit, vaping is very hard on the lungs and if you catch this ****er of a virus that's where it'll be targeting you,

I hear you. My plan was to cut out smoking and vape for a while before quitting completely. I know a few people that has worked for.

Strazdas · 28-03-2020 03:32PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Is the worst over in South Korea and Japan? Why are they bringing back new restrictions?

I believe the new restrictions are much more temporary i.e. for two weeks or so in response to a spike in local cases.

Wibbs · 28-03-2020 03:32PM

Elle Tasty Gymnasium wrote: »

The government has to think of the collective good. They have to weigh up the excess deaths, secondary to failure to control the virus (this will include people who die of COVID and people who die from unrelated illnesses as a result of the lack of resources) versus the excess amount of people that will die from mental health issues (i.e. die by suicide) secondary to several weeks of social restrictions. Neither strategy will spare all lives . But we have to make the decision about which option will save the maximum number of lives (failure to restrict the virus could result in an excess of a hundred-thousand lives in the long-run). Social restriction will cause less societal damage.

+1. If we continue the analogy of this being a war, like all wars sadly we will suffer collateral damage on top of the loss of our "soldiers" on the frontline and civilian deaths. Those with mental health issues will be among that number. That's the fact of it.

However we can mitigate that both personally and societally by keeping tabs on all the people you know and letting everyone you know that there's always an ear at the other end of a phone, PC, or webcam. If each one of us did that we would lower that "collateral damage" considerably.

is_that_so · 28-03-2020 03:32PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Is the worst over in South Korea and Japan? Why are they bringing back new restrictions?

Importing cases is one reason but I have seen pieces wondering aloud whether they have got through it in S Korea. Japan may be hitting another wave.

CaoinDory · 28-03-2020 03:34PM

khalessi wrote: »

I am asking you not to be so blind as a nurse, as someone immuncompromised and as a relative of people with serious health issues. I want to be able to look at their faces when this is over. I want to be able to hug them again

Thank you again for all your work hun.

It was said last night that we are only beginning this!! But people are refusing to listen. Maybe this will wipe out the idiots and leave us free of their drivel.

yourdeadwright · 28-03-2020 03:34PM

jackboy wrote: »

That’s fine. Are you ok with the nurses take home pay going through the floor when this crises is over?

No they should all go on strike now and complain about it,
Jesus christ man let's worry about that stuff when this is over, Save as many life as we can as people and then worry about the fall out

yerwanthere123 · 28-03-2020 03:34PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

How do you know it was pandemic-related?

I don't. But I think we can use our context clues and common sense to deduce that there may be a correlation between the two.

Downlinz · 28-03-2020 03:35PM

recyclebin wrote: »

When are we going to get a better breakdown of the cases. Dublin and Cork are too populated to just go to county level. If people knew where the clusters were they could take extra precautions and lock down further. 2km gets you a long way and past a lot of of people in populates areas.

Why are we not using the resources of Facebook, Google and Apple to track movements of cases. They all have huge workforce here in Ireland so could create apps in no time. They already track way too much of our movements anyway, all for marketing purposes. Why not use that resource to do something good for a change?

We should be locked down already only leaving the house if it's absolutely essential, how can you lock down further?

I think those details were relevant a couple of weeks ago when most people were still in their daily routine but we should all presume we're in a hotspot right now and act accordingly.

jackboy · 28-03-2020 03:36PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

No they should all go on strike now and complain about it,
Jesus christ man let's worry about that stuff when this is over, Save as many life as we can as people and then worry about the fall out

Yep, that sort of reactive behavior instead of planning has got us where we are today.

sydthebeat · 28-03-2020 03:36PM

poor San Marino will come out of this with the worst deaths per capita ratio.

already at 619 per million (21 deaths)

Italy a distant second at 151 deaths per million
followed by Spain at 122

Tomrota · 28-03-2020 03:37PM

Apologies if it’s been answered 400,000 times but I haven’t been keeping up with this thread or the news, but is it restricted to go for your daily exercise with the family unit? And is it restricted to shop with another member of the family unit? Thanks guys.

pjohnson · 28-03-2020 03:37PM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

That's the point.

We are so reliant on the Global economy anyway, what would be left to save of the Irish one if we went on the solo run that people here want us to?

It shows how clueless they actually are about economics.

ihdxwz4a3pem9j · 28-03-2020 03:37PM

Somebody asked about using inhalers and nebulisers to treat this:

Basically, you have different levels of oxygen requirement. When we are well, we suck in air, which has 21% oxygen. When we are sick, for different reasons, less of this oxygen is delivered to our blood. Initially, we can go up on the % of oxygen (e.g. from 21% of the gas volume we breathe, to 40%) that is given by giving nasal cannula (nasal prongs) or a face-mask. This will maintain the oxygen at sufficient levels. However, if somebody is sick enough, this extra amount, won't be enough. They will need us to help when they suck in the oxygen. This help comes in the form of pushing the air into the lungs with a machine (CPAP/Airvo). Imagine somebody trying to climb a high wall. If they cannot reach the top, their first option is to jump higher (give them oxygen on top of what they already breathe). However, if the wall is too high, they will need somebody to give them a boost to reach the top (pushing the air in with each breath). They get a boost, every breath they take. And finally, if that doesn't work, we need our breathing machines to take over, and to do the breathing for them, to maintain the oxygen levels (and in some cases, reduce the carbon dioxide). This is known as ventilation. Imagine if the wall is too high, no amount of boosting will get the person over the wall. We then need a hoist to get them over (ventilation).

In terms of a nebuliser, it is used to administer a liquid medicine in tiny mist form. Because the particle is so small, in can reach the deeper parts of the lung. This medicine can cause the breathing tubes to expand, to give more room for the oxygen to get in. However, ultimately a nebuliser only helps if the primary reason for poor oxygen levels are tight breathing tubes e.g. patients with asthma, COPD. If this is not the main reason (as in Covid-19), it will not help. I know that in hospitals, you can give oxygen through nebulisers. However, most home nebulisers will not have that function. So, nebulisers will not help somebody with low oxygen levels, resulting from the COVID-19.

Sorry for the prolix tutorial! I just get really enthusiastic about explaining how the lungs work (I am a nerd!)

Hobgoblin11 · 28-03-2020 03:39PM

Dana white - “if the corona virus is going to get me so be it, bring it on”

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03