CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:37PM

bekker wrote: »

Thanks, you're quite correct.

It was rather careless phraseology on my part, equating 'virtually impossible' with 'virtually meaningless'. Have edited accordingly.

Where are you getting that from? Total deaths is the only accurate figure we have!

What Username Guidelines · 27-03-2020 03:37PM

MipMap wrote: »

This is the profile of worldwide deaths from the 1918 flu.

The first wave happened in July 1918

the second wave went like this.

on 3rd Nov 1918 - about 2 per thousand
on the 10th Nov 1918 about 6 per thousand
on the 16th Nov 1918 about 25 per thousand
on 11th Jan 1919 finished

The people relaxed and a third wave hit but not as bad as the second.

This is what exponential growth looks like and they were basically following a "Herd Immunity" approach cos they knew no better.

A century later we have a much better understanding.

Bad and all as the numbers from Italy and Spain are they seem to be holding steady (Italy 650 ish per day - Spain -700 ish per day.

Appalling but not exponential - Early days but it looks like the curve flattening approach may be working.

What factors influenced the slowing down/stopping of each peak? What stopped it from just continuing, or what could stop covid19 from just continuing? Obviously we're in an exponential growth phase now, but social distancing/lockdown aside, what usually causes these to slow?

BanditLuke · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

If everybody gets this as is now looking more likely by the day! How many deaths are likely before a vaccine !

I think we have to forget about a vaccine for the forseeable tbh.

This is our best short time hope

https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-source-for-potential-new-covid-19-drugs-blood-serum/

Ace2007 · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Do you realise that every time you go near other people you are putting your life is serious risk during this pandemic?

Not sure if that was aimed at me?

timhenn wrote: »

I have relatives who are sick but hopefully recovering because of this virus. I believe the actions of those in charge haven't helped matters and they still aren't doing enough. I'm allowed to post that view. If you don't like it then put me on ignore.

I hope your relatives recover from the illness, do they know how they caught it?

Also just add ignore doesn't work if someone quotes you.

paul71 · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

What factors influenced the slowing down/stopping of each peak? What stopped it from just continuing, or what could stop covid19 from just continuing? Obviously we're in an exponential growth phase now, but social distancing/lockdown aside, what usually causes these to slow?

Immunity from previous infection, not just slowing down the number of new infections but the number of carriers.

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

NH2013 wrote: »

Passenger flights are cargo flights, there's almost no dedicated cargo aircraft relative to passenger aircraft.

Even the aircraft being sent to China to pick up the PPE are the massive passenger aircraft normally used across the atlantic. Almost all of our air freight and cargo needs as a country are flown in the holds of passenger flights.

Take the flights off the Aer Lingus website. If they want to do cargo so be it.

I don't think you understand the problem of importing new travel related cases to be honest. It complicates an already impossible situation. We might all be in lockdown for years, but if you keep introducing new cases into the system, lockdown is pointless and only keeps getting extended.

Bring in cargo, but limit passengers and quarantine those who come in.

And in case people think I'm obsessed with flights, its just one of a number of things that need to be done, although probably the most important.

rossie1977 · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

timhenn wrote: »

Poland has a population of over 36 million! I think it's you who lacks knowledge on statistics.

You compare confirmed infection rates/deaths not population sizes.

Using your method Luxembourg is probably worst effected in Europe right now not Spain or Italy

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

KiKi III wrote: »

I don’t know how to break this down for you in a way you’ll understand.

To make accurate comparisons, you have to compare like with like.

Imagine Debbie and Sue both want to lose weight. They’ve both lost five pounds but Debbie started two weeks ago and Sue started six weeks ago.

So even though their weight loss is the same, we can tell that Debbie is doing a better job. The absolute number of the weight loss only tells a part of the story.

I never claimed anyone should take these figures to do their thesis on it. It's a good indicator of where we stand currently and it's not good!

Hector Savage · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52060900

Spain has seen a sharp rise in the number of deaths caused by coronavirus but the rate of new infections is stabilising, officials say.

Confirmed cases of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, rose to 64,059, a 14% increase compared with 18% a day earlier and 20% on Wednesday.

BBC seem to be checking worldometers , but that site will have at least 2 more updates today, very poor from the BBC, there is scaremongering and then there is giving false hope ...

Lavinia · 27-03-2020 03:39PM

Does anybody know if you get sore throat from corona virus does it get those white spots or not.
I read contradictory information on this.
Thanks a lot.

froog · 27-03-2020 03:40PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

If everybody gets this as is now looking more likely by the day! How many deaths are likely before a vaccine !

In my opinion, best case 15 million global, worst case 200m +

mick987 · 27-03-2020 03:41PM

NH2013 wrote: »

Well let me put it to you this way, 1/3 of Irish adults are dependent on long term prescription medicines, of which between 60-70% of which are imported from abroad.

That means that of the aprox 3.2m adults in this country almost a million are dependent on medicines, 700,000 of which are medicines that come in from abroad, from asthma, to diabetes, to blood thinners etc.

Should we deprive those 700,000 people of their medicines being imported on these mostly cargo flights in order to stop the potentially 3-4 people on the flights arriving, who'll have to quarantine for 14 days anyways.

Stop that you are making sense, not allowed on this thread

dougm1970 · 27-03-2020 03:41PM

Full video from doctor in Madrid after his request to share..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWFr6khY2U4

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:41PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Not sure if that was aimed at me?

I hope your relatives recover from the illness, do they know how they caught it?

Also just add ignore doesn't work if someone quotes you.

No.

Tell them to stop quoting.

KiKi III · 27-03-2020 03:42PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Take the flights off the Aer Lingus website. If they want to do cargo so be it.

I don't think you understand the problem of importing new travel related cases to be honest. It complicates an already impossible situation. We might all be in lockdown for years, but if you keep introducing new cases into the system, lockdown is pointless and only keeps getting extended.

Bring in cargo, but limit passengers and quarantine those who come in.

And in case people think I'm obsessed with flights, its just one of a number of things that need to be done, although probably the most important.

You keep saying you’re not being melodramatic but you absolutely are.

Might be in lockdown for years? Please do let me know what your source is for that because Wuhan is getting back to normal after four months.

We might take a bit longer because of less drastic measures, but to expand that out to multiple years as you are is hysteria.

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 03:42PM

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

A 17 yr old in California has died after being refused treatment in a private hospital for having no insurance. He was told to go to a public hospital but had a heart attack on the way there.

Its awful. But i mean what Dr during a pandemic tells an infected patient ..yeah leave here go out into the car park infect everyone else.??

The US health system is not designed for a pandemic.

Without the socialist health systems around the world this would be a LOT worse.

And a lot of socialist systems around the world are saving all of our lives right now and the lives of people the US.

Suddenly white middle class americans are in danger watch america change its attitude.

Sorry where is the evidence he was infected? And if he was infected he had no business showing up at a hospital. The advice is clear, ring your doctor, wait to be tested and then if you are severe enough you will be brought in, in a controlled manner.

Showing up in an A&E claiming you have covid19 is idiocy.

Be right back · 27-03-2020 03:43PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Quick update for anybody interested.

Was chatting with Graces7 and shes still with us, she is just taking a sabbatical from Boards.

She is still doing her blogs for anybody interested.

https://islandanchorhold.blogspot.com/

I had wondered about her.

jam_mac_jam · 27-03-2020 03:43PM

Lavinia wrote: »

Does anybody know if you get sore throat from corona virus does it get those white spots or not.
I read contradictory information on this.
Thanks a lot.

Ring a doctor

FVP3 · 27-03-2020 03:43PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

What factors influenced the slowing down/stopping of each peak? What stopped it from just continuing, or what could stop covid19 from just continuing? Obviously we're in an exponential growth phase now, but social distancing/lockdown aside, what usually causes these to slow?

Mostly herd immunity, as he said. The people who were going to get it and die, died. Others survived and were immune. Then summer broke out and that tends to end flu seasons.

They did do some quarantining though. Schools were closed in some parts of the US, and movie theaters.

is_that_so · 27-03-2020 03:44PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I think we have to forget about a vaccine for the forseeable tbh.

This is our best short time hope

https://www.wired.com/story/an-old-source-for-potential-new-covid-19-drugs-blood-serum/

It's just one of many approaches but many may fail as well. A trial with a drug based on the old BCG will be starting soon. There's also a megatrial with 4 available drugs being set up by WHO.

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:44PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

You compare confirmed infection rates/deaths not population sizes.

Using your method Luxembourg is probably worst effected in Europe right now not Spain or Italy

Using what method? I've posted the death rates of countries in and around the same population as us. We're high up that table. I've posted that we have more deaths than countries with far bigger populations. Whatever way you want to look at it, things aren't good here. No point denying it.

27-03-2020 03:44PM

Interesting Reading

https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-coronavirus-carriers-no-symptoms

FVP3 · 27-03-2020 03:44PM

Be right back wrote: »

I had wondered about her.

She might be in one of safest places on the Island.

Edit:

Well off the island. I suppose, on her own island

Ace2007 · 27-03-2020 03:46PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Take the flights off the Aer Lingus website. If they want to do cargo so be it.

I don't think you understand the problem of importing new travel related cases to be honest. It complicates an already impossible situation. We might all be in lockdown for years, but if you keep introducing new cases into the system, lockdown is pointless and only keeps getting extended.

Bring in cargo, but limit passengers and quarantine those who come in.

And in case people think I'm obsessed with flights, its just one of a number of things that need to be done, although probably the most important.

Frank give Joe Duffy a call there - i think they were looking for experts with free time on their hand to go on air -

owlbethere · 27-03-2020 03:46PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

What factors influenced the slowing down/stopping of each peak? What stopped it from just continuing, or what could stop covid19 from just continuing? Obviously we're in an exponential growth phase now, but social distancing/lockdown aside, what usually causes these to slow?

My understanding of the Spanish flu was that soldiers from world's war 1 were the main spreaders and the spread of the Spanish flu slowed down when the war ended.

27-03-2020 03:47PM

Matt Hancock is a bit of a cutie

KiKi III · 27-03-2020 03:47PM

timhenn wrote: »

Using what method? I've posted the death rates of countries in and around the same population as us. We're high up that table. I've posted that we have more deaths than countries with far bigger populations. Whatever way you want to look at it, things aren't good here. No point denying it.

You are not comparing like with like. Your figures and your conclusions are not accurate.

In the real world, it’s far too early to draw any major conclusions but based on the figures we have we are a our middle of the table

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 03:47PM

KiKi III wrote: »

You keep saying you’re not being melodramatic but you absolutely are.

Might be in lockdown for years? Please do let me know what your source is for that because Wuhan is getting back to normal after four months.

We might take a bit longer because of less drastic measures, but to expand that out to multiple years as you are is hysteria.

I'm not being melodramatic.

I suppose the doctors in Italy were being melodramatic when they tried to warn other European countries about what was coming weeks ago?

Realistically there is no vaccine for this for at least 12 months. By then it will actually be too late as the peak will have long passed with hundreds of thousands dead.

I'm pointing out the logical conclusion of bad decisions.

Its called telling the truth. I'm sorry if you think that someone saying things will get bad is being melodramatic. What do you want me to say? That it will be fine, we will be out of this in a few weeks? That would be a lie.

irishlad. · 27-03-2020 03:47PM

dougm1970 wrote: »

Full video from doctor in Madrid after his request to share..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWFr6khY2U4

Thats a shocking watch.

devnull · 27-03-2020 03:48PM

Latest UK Figures

Tested: 113,777
Negative: 99,198
Positive: 14,579 - up 2921 (+25.05%)
Deaths: 769 - up 185 (+31.31%)

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03