CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

spookwoman · 27-03-2020 03:21PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1243540320069079040?s=20

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2026.03.2020_v2_%20website%20version.pdf

Gynoid · 27-03-2020 03:22PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CoronaHeadsUp/status/1243522679623364612

Well. That is not good.

weisses · 27-03-2020 03:22PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

You cannot compare Ireland and New Zealand.

1) For one Ireland receives millions more tourist each year

2) Ireland is tech capital of Europe, with pretty much every big tech company having a presence here. This leads to a lot of people travelling for business and makes Dublin a lot more international

Plus new Zealand has a proper rugby team...

I let myself out

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:22PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Most countries are a couple weeks into a pandemic and currently have relatively few deaths, 19 deaths here is still just a really tiny sample. Its simply much too small to be suggestive of any greater trend, for now its just an anomaly that may be suggestive of a trend. But you need a much large amount of data eon deaths and iCU and cases to properly be able to assess whether a country is actually dealing better or worse than another

Saying Denmark for example with 50 deaths is doing 'twice as badly' as Ireland is ridiculous. What if Ireland has 15 today, and Denmark doesnt today, in 24 hours has Ireland become just as bad at saving lives as Denmark? You could also say on with this kind of tiny amount of data that potentially Denarks mortality growth has dropped to zero while Irelands is now doubling daily. No its just with such a relatively tiny numbers of cases and deaths any changes will widly and unreliably swing the apparent mortality rates for better or worse, you cant make any genuine or valid assertions based on them at this stage.

No, I'm just giving the latest figures. It doesn't make for good reading no matter what way you look at it.

bekker · 27-03-2020 03:23PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Different Day 1s does make a difference to deaths. Fewer deaths *today* doesn’t really mean anything if the virus has been here for two weeks and there for 5 days. As we have seen, 24 hours is a long time in the life of this virus.

Somebody suggested here over the last few day using the date of first recorded death.

It seems to me that using that date rather than a day one based on first confirmed case would serve to allow more realistic comparison between otherwise the very varied 'confirmed case' data.

KiKi III · 27-03-2020 03:23PM

timhenn wrote: »

No,it's showing the current situation. Poland had their first case on the 4th of March, Ireland on the first. As I said, this is not good.

Yes, three days difference. If you look at our numbers today vs 3 days ago you should be able to see what a huge difference three days makes in this virus.

I’m not just saying this to be snarky, you don’t seem to have a good understanding of how statistics work and how to measure these things accurately.

iwillyeah1234 · 27-03-2020 03:23PM

Pencil Neck wrote: »

Big jump in numbers in UK. Big jump

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

I took a screenshot on Wednesday , so that I can get my figures right.

Figures below are "Wednesday / right now "

Total UK Cases

9,529 / 11,658

Total UK deaths

464 / 578

Daily confirmed cases

1,452 / 2,129

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:24PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

Give it a break lad, like seriously what benefit has it got being so negative?

What do you want to achieve by constantly going on about it??

I'd say you be great craic to hang out with in normally setting

What's your problem?

This is about the number of deaths in Ireland. You know, actual people dying? Do you see a positive side to that?

Duke of Url · 27-03-2020 03:24PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1243540327643955200

Yes. But what was the source of these outbreaks.........

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 03:25PM

NH2013 wrote: »

Well let me put it to you this way, 1/3 of Irish adults are dependent on long term prescription medicines, of which between 60-70% of which are imported from abroad.

That means that of the aprox 3.2m adults in this country almost a million are dependent on medicines, 700,000 of which are medicines that come in from abroad, from asthma, to diabetes, to blood thinners etc.

Should we deprive those 700,000 people of their medicines being imported on these mostly cargo flights in order to stop the potentially 3-4 people on the flights arriving, who'll have to quarantine for 14 days anyways.

Where did I say ban cargo flights? I said ban passenger flights or restrict to an amount of people who can be quarantined for 2 weeks on arrival from places like NY and London. This would go a huge way to helping us flatten the curve.

spookwoman · 27-03-2020 03:25PM

Professor Moriarty · 27-03-2020 03:25PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

I took a screenshot on Wednesday , so that I can get my figures right.

Figures below are "Wednesday / right now "

Total UK Cases

9,529 / 11,658

Total UK deaths

464 / 578

Daily confirmed cases

1,452 / 2,129

The Prime Minister and Health Secretary being two of that increase.

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:26PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Yes, three days difference. If you look at our numbers today vs 3 days ago you should be able to see what a huge difference three days makes in this virus.

I’m not just saying this to be snarky, you don’t seem to have a good understanding of how statistics work and how to measure these things accurately.

Poland has a population of over 36 million! I think it's you who lacks knowledge on statistics.

paul71 · 27-03-2020 03:26PM

weisses wrote: »

Plus new Zealand has a proper rugby team...

I let myself out

Yeah please do

josip · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

I'd like if someone can review my methodology for the graph below please?
I took the HSE numbers for ICU beds over the past week.
There's a 2 day lag in those numbers according to them

17/03/2020 7
18/03/2020 12
19/03/2020 13
20/03/2020 17
21/03/2020 25
22/03/2020 36
23/03/2020 39
24/03/2020 47

I calculated the day on day %age increase and then the 3 day moving average for those.
I then graphed the best case increase (24%) in orange and worst case (41%) in red, day on day projections for ICU bed numbers.

Taking the best case scenario, we will hit the 260 bed limit on the 1st of April, 500 on the 4th, and 1000 by the 7th.
Any additional measures we introduce will take at least 7 days to impact case/ICU numbers.

Pdoghue · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

As I posted the other day watching the PM Questions in the Commons, when it was over a of the MPs including Boris filed out past the speaker together, well less than 2 metres apart.. Makes you wonder..

NH2013 · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Where did I say ban cargo flights? I said ban passenger flights or restrict to an amount of people who can be quarantined on arrival.

Passenger flights are cargo flights, there's almost no dedicated cargo aircraft relative to passenger aircraft.

Even the aircraft being sent to China to pick up the PPE are the massive passenger aircraft normally used across the atlantic. Almost all of our air freight and cargo needs as a country are flown in the holds of passenger flights.

Kermit.de.frog · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

UK

+ 2921 new cases (14,579 total)

+ 181 new deaths (759 total)

KiKi III · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

timhenn wrote: »

Poland has a population of over 36 million! I think it's you who lacks knowledge on statistics.

Nope. We could still make comparisons with Poland or Wuhan or anywhere as long as we did it on a per capita basis.

There’s no particular reason to only compare with countries that have the same population as ours.

Away With The Fairies · 27-03-2020 03:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We are a few weeks away from having to decide who gets ventilators as is. Some counties have only one or two ventilators.

There's a doctor in America who was able to place a few people with similar lung capacities on the same ventilator. Can our doctors do something like that here?

hawkwing · 27-03-2020 03:29PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

It sounds like a dog's bark. Not sure which type of dog though.

Is it like a happy to see you dog's bark or more of an angry growly thing

Or even a howl like when you play on a tinwhistle or flute and your dog is listening...

timhenn · 27-03-2020 03:29PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Nope. We could still make comparisons with Poland or Wuhan or anywhere as long as we did it on a per capita basis.

There’s no particular reason to only compare with countries that have the same population as ours.

Yeah and we don't compare well with most. It's pretty simple stuff.

ZX7R · 27-03-2020 03:29PM

scamalert wrote: »

a month from now government will pull the plug and we will be back to whatever is normal, virus or not people need to eat and pay bills, and welfare wont do that forever.

You're post is closer to the truth than people want to believe.

Ace2007 · 27-03-2020 03:30PM

timhenn wrote: »

What's your problem?

This is about the number of deaths in Ireland. You know, actual people dying? Do you see a positive side to that?

My problem is that you continuously harping on about how it's not good - what about all the posters who have elderly parents/grandparents, or relatives in high risk categories, do you think they want to read your posts constantly implying we're ****ed???

What about the posters whose love ones are in nursing home, or in hospitals or living alone. What about posters whose spouse/children work in these healthcare places - your posts are just going to make them anxious.

In a world where you can be anything be considerate of others - especially when posting on public forms.

ZX7R · 27-03-2020 03:31PM

KiKi III wrote: »

Nope. We could still make comparisons with Poland or Wuhan or anywhere as long as we did it on a per capita basis.

There’s no particular reason to only compare with countries that have the same population as ours.

Poland are only testing thoes who end up in hospital,source polish midea

bekker · 27-03-2020 03:32PM

timhenn wrote: »

Comparing the death rates is not impossible.

Thanks, you're quite correct.

It was rather careless phraseology on my part, equating 'virtually impossible' with 'virtually meaningless'. Have edited accordingly.

tobefrank321 · 27-03-2020 03:33PM

josip wrote: »

I'd like if someone can review my methodology for the graph below please?
I took the HSE numbers for ICU beds over the past week.
There's a 2 day lag in those numbers according to them

17/03/2020 7
18/03/2020 12
19/03/2020 13
20/03/2020 17
21/03/2020 25
22/03/2020 36
23/03/2020 39
24/03/2020 47

I calculated the day on day %age increase and then the 3 day moving average for those.
I then graphed the best case increase (24%) in yellow and worst case (41%) blue day on day projections for ICU bed numbers.
(Ignore the orange bit at the start of the graph, I'm not great with Excel)

Taking the best case scenario, we will hit the 260 bed limit on the 1st of April, 500 on the 4th and 1000 by the 7th.
Any additional measures we introduce will take at least 7 days to impact case/ICU numbers.

They are saying 500 in the system, but even that sounds optimistic. We also need ventilators and more importantly trained staff. 500 is likely our ICU limit and after that doctors deciding on who lives and who dies. When that happens, deaths unfortunately rocket.

MipMap · 27-03-2020 03:33PM

This is the profile of worldwide deaths from the 1918 flu.

The first wave happened in July 1918

the second wave went like this.

on 3rd Nov 1918 - about 2 per thousand
on the 10th Nov 1918 about 6 per thousand
on the 16th Nov 1918 about 25 per thousand
on 11th Jan 1919 finished

The people relaxed and a third wave hit but not as bad as the second.

This is what exponential growth looks like and they were basically following a "Herd Immunity" approach cos they knew no better.

A century later we have a much better understanding.

Bad and all as the numbers from Italy and Spain are they seem to be holding steady (Italy 650 ish per day - Spain -700 ish per day.

Appalling but not exponential - Early days but it looks like the curve flattening approach may be working.

iwillyeah1234 · 27-03-2020 03:33PM

Contact tracing Boris Johnson...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8159865/Coronavirus-Boris-Johnson-close-contact-past-ten-days.html

Hobgoblin11 · 27-03-2020 03:33PM

If everybody gets this as is now looking more likely by the day! How many deaths are likely before a vaccine !

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03