CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

citysights · 27-03-2020 02:58AM

aligator_am wrote: »

That is something that I've been wondering about, I've not heard of any massive outbreaks of the virus in Africa or South America, this is a good thing of course (assuming there's no big outbreaks), just curious as to how it hasn't really kicked off there yet?

Listening to a Joe Rogan podcast and he mentioned that a Doctor friend of his has a patient in their 20's who's a fitness instructor that is in a heap with it and on a ventilator, and yet you have say Idris Elba who's in his 40's or possibly 50's who also has it and is apparently not a bother to him?

It may be a while before we figure out why some are more succeptible than others, but it's interesting nonetheless.

It’s starting in Africa unfortunately, some countries already doing lockdown it seems. I am guessing the life expectancy would be much lower in some ( if not all ) of these countries than here so this may skew the figures, add to that availability of testing kits etc., lots of variables. South America I don’t know. Dreadful times.

fritzelly · 27-03-2020 03:00AM

Something interesting - the US is gonna blow up in the next week - I don't think any country should be allowing flights from there for a good while if Trump gets his way

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1243356519690719234

humberklog · 27-03-2020 03:01AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Okaaaaay...Fauci 'wouldn't absolutely agree'.....;) so does this mean that at worst I scored 85.714285714286% in the questionnaire but I might still get the 100%?

An excellent score card otherwise.

Yeah I was kinda thinking I might get envious of people who have already caught it (if I haven't already) as it would give immunity but apparently that ain't no guarantee.

nocoverart · 27-03-2020 03:05AM

aligator_am wrote: »

Be careful, if you start listening to some of Radiohead's more recent stuff then you'll probably get the HIV and possibly a dose of crabs.

Big fan of the earlier stuff. The rest is all a bit arty farty for my liking.

Andrew00 · 27-03-2020 03:06AM

Ara I wouldn't be fond of drinking but when I do go at it, I go at it awful an very hard.

I do have about 45 pints in about two hours. I'd have an aul packet of crisps then, and a maybe an aul packet of peanuts.

And I'd go for probably, I'd have ten more anyway. And I'd get up the following morning and Maureen would have the fry on.

And I'd go at again. And there'd be no ****ing stopping me. I'd take the shirt off any man's back. Bastards.

Quantum Erasure · 27-03-2020 03:10AM

citysights wrote: »

It’s starting in Africa unfortunately, some countries already doing lockdown it seems. I am guessing the life expectancy would be much lower in some ( if not all ) of these countries than here so this may skew the figures, add to that availability of testing kits etc., lots of variables. South America I don’t know. Dreadful times.

Nearly 1000 cases in South Africa, gone into lockdown for three weeks from tonight. Egypt nearly 500 cases, starting to take off in sub Saharan Africa, Ghana nearly doubled yesterday, up to 132.

ro_chez · 27-03-2020 03:13AM

Andrew00 wrote: »

Ara I wouldn't be fond of drinking but when I do go at it, I go at it awful an very hard.

I do have about 45 pints in about two hours. I'd have an aul packet of crips then, and a maybe an aul packet of peanuts.

And I'd go for probably, I'd have ten more anyway. And I'd get up the following morning and Maureen would have the fry on.

And I'd go at again. And there'd be no ****ing stopping me. I'd take the shirt off any man's back. Bastards.

FYP

aligator_am · 27-03-2020 03:15AM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

Nearly 1000 cases in South Africa, gone into lockdown for three weeks from tonight. Egypt nearly 500 cases, starting to take off in sub Saharan Africa, Ghana nearly doubled yesterday, up to 132.

Ah ****, that's not good. Hopefully it won't run rampant. I know there's a lot of people in Africa but it's also a gigantic place, so with luck it won't spread too much.

c.p.w.g.w · 27-03-2020 03:21AM

aligator_am wrote: »

Ah ****, that's not good. Hopefully it won't run rampant. I know there's a lot of people in Africa but it's also a gigantic place, so with luck it won't spread too much.

Big concern is Townships in South Africa, Lagos and many others with high density

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 03:36AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I wish it were different, but we're not the same as Italy since the start.

I like to keep track, here’s where we are in relation to Italy:

Month One Ireland V Month one Italy.

ITALY: January 31st Italy has its first case confirmed.

One moth later, almost to the day, Ireland has its first case confirmed.

IRELAND:February 29th first case confirmed. (It was a ‘Man in the East’)

And below is how it is playing out:

March 6th 18 (5 new) Italy February 6th 3 cases (2 new)
March 22nd 906 (121 new) Italy February 22nd 79 cases 2 dead
March 23rd 1125 (219 new) Italy February 23rd 152cases
March 24th 1329 (204 new) Italy February 24th 229 cases
March 25th 1564 (235 new) Italy February 25th 323 cases
March 26th 1819 (255 new ) Italy February 26th 374 cases
(19 dead)

Look at us now, in our first month compared to Italy in their first month.

Remember, all of the Italian cases in their ‘Month One’ are in Northern Italy with a population four times that of the Rep. of Irl.

You cannot compare Ireland to Italy,

1 the virus hit the country at least 2 months before they did anything about it

2 most people live in 7 to 10 story apartments and town houses and are very much living on top of each other and is the main reason for the high number of cases

3 Ireland went into lock down mode a week after Italy did ireland only had a few cases in the country while Italy was heavily infected

For as long as people obey social distancing we won't see any major surge, the one thing that will be a problem over time is people travelling back to the country from other areas that will make it hard to really contain the virus

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 03:40AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/world/coronavirus-news.html

Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Leads the World in Known Cases
New York Times 27/03/2020

Well that’s a ****ty turn of events for all the people who wanted it Great Again.

JP Liz V1 · 27-03-2020 03:43AM

citysights wrote: »

Is anyone still finding this surreal? Have been following from the start here on boards and when I told a few people about it they thought I was being ridiculous. Now they are taking it seriously? I wonder where we’ll be by Christmas 2020 with all of this?

Santa Claus cocoons for most of year so he should be safe

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 03:44AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I wish it were different, but we're not the same as Italy since the start.

I like to keep track, here’s where we are in relation to Italy:

Month One Ireland V Month one Italy.

ITALY: January 31st Italy has its first case confirmed.

One moth later, almost to the day, Ireland has its first case confirmed.

IRELAND:February 29th first case confirmed. (It was a ‘Man in the East’)

And below is how it is playing out:

March 6th 18 (5 new) Italy February 6th 3 cases (2 new)
March 22nd 906 (121 new) Italy February 22nd 79 cases 2 dead
March 23rd 1125 (219 new) Italy February 23rd 152cases
March 24th 1329 (204 new) Italy February 24th 229 cases
March 25th 1564 (235 new) Italy February 25th 323 cases
March 26th 1819 (255 new ) Italy February 26th 374 cases
(19 dead)

Look at us now, in our first month compared to Italy in their first month.

Remember, all of the Italian cases in their ‘Month One’ are in Northern Italy with a population four times that of the Rep. of Irl.

I don't think those figures prove anything.
Italy had their first 2 confirmed cases on the 31st of January
That increased to 3 on the 6th of February
Their total stayed at 3 until the 21st of February and then it started increasing rapidly.
There was obviously some kind of massive spread and clusters going on in those 3 weeks that wasn't spotted.
We have been testing many people who were apparently showing symptoms and the vast majority are testing negative for covid-19.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 03:47AM

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

You cannot compare Ireland to Italy,

1 the virus hit the country at least 2 months before they did anything about it

2 most people live in 7 to 10 story apartments and town houses and are very much living on top of each other and is the main reason for the high number of cases

3 Ireland went into lock down mode a week after Italy did ireland only had a few cases in the country while Italy was heavily infected

For as long as people obey social distancing we won't see any major surge, the one thing that will be a problem over time is people travelling back to the country from other areas that will make it hard to really contain the virus

Why are our numbers higher than theirs were, less than one month in?

Strazdas · 27-03-2020 03:48AM

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

You cannot compare Ireland to Italy,

1 the virus hit the country at least 2 months before they did anything about it

2 most people live in 7 to 10 story apartments and town houses and are very much living on top of each other and is the main reason for the high number of cases

3 Ireland went into lock down mode a week after Italy did ireland only had a few cases in the country while Italy was heavily infected

For as long as people obey social distancing we won't see any major surge, the one thing that will be a problem over time is people travelling back to the country from other areas that will make it hard to really contain the virus

Also, the population of northern Italy (the 8 affected provinces) is around 28 million people.

fritzelly · 27-03-2020 03:52AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Why are our numbers higher than theirs were, less than one month in?

Its a dichotomy - Italy didn't start doing real testing til the 20th Feb, we ramped up testing on the 15th March but were looking earlier

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 03:53AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Why are our numbers higher than theirs were, less than one month in?

Their were a serious number of misdiagnosed cases in February in Italy where patients were discharged with what was taught to be pneumonia, which infected 10000s since they never realised how bad the spread was until early March,

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 03:58AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Why are our numbers higher than theirs were, less than one month in?

They had 2 cases at the start, a Chinese couple.....on the 31st of January.
They had a 3rd on the 6th of February. An Italy man repatriated from Wuhan. I am assuming he was quarantined and didn't infect anyone.

The cluster in Lombardy was obviously going unchecked for a long time before it came to light. They think the origin of that outbreak was from local transmission in Munich and it wasn't related to the earlier 3 cases.

It may seem like our numbers are increasing rapidly, even more so than Italy if you count their day 1 as the day the Chinese couple tested positive, but if you don't count that first 3 and act like their day 1 started in Lombardy it's different.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:01AM

Strazdas wrote: »

Also, the population of northern Italy (the 8 affected provinces) is around 28 million people.

and???

ITALY: January 31st has its first case confirmed.
One month later……
IRELAND: February 29th has its first case confirmed.
Ireland March 26th 1819 cases compared to Italy February 26th 374 cases

As I said earlier, With a population a quarter that of Northern Italy, our numbers in Rep. of Irl. are very high.

fritzelly · 27-03-2020 04:05AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

and???

ITALY: January 31st has its first case confirmed.
One month later……
IRELAND: February 29th has its first case confirmed.
Ireland March 26th 1819 cases compared to Italy February 26th 374 cases

As I said earlier, With a population a quarter that of Northern Italy, our numbers in Rep. of Irl. are very high.

Because month to month they weren't testing and we were
fast forward a few days and Italy has trebled in cases

You cannot make this kind of comparison - they had thousands of cases they weren't looking for

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:06AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

and???

ITALY: January 31st has its first case confirmed.
One month later……
IRELAND: February 29th has its first case confirmed.
Ireland March 26th 1819 cases compared to Italy February 26th 374 cases

Start from 'patient 1' in Italy instead of Italys first confirmed case.
He went to the doctor on the 14th of February, he went to the hospital after that, there was no suspicion of covid-19, no precautions were taken. No attempt to protect staff or stop the spread from a person who may have potentially had Covid-19. It was only a week later that patient 1, his pregnant wife and his friend all tested positive. That's when it all started to kick off in Lombardy.

solidasarock · 27-03-2020 04:08AM

I know its fun to compare to Italy but measuring Population totals wouldn't really get into it at these low numbers and going "THEY HAVE MORE PEOPLE SO THEY SHOULD HAVE MORE CASES" isnt really how it works when you have so few cases early on.

Its a extremely contagious virus. It will spread exponentially. It makes sense we are in the same ballpark as them comparing month 1 and its messed up to think about.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:08AM

marilynrr wrote: »

They had 2 cases at the start, a Chinese couple.....on the 31st of January.
They had a 3rd on the 6th of February. An Italy man repatriated from Wuhan. I am assuming he was quarantined and didn't infect anyone.

The cluster in Lombardy was obviously going unchecked for a long time before it came to light. They think the origin of that outbreak was from local transmission in Munich and it wasn't related to the earlier 3 cases.

It may seem like our numbers are increasing rapidly, even more so than Italy if you count their day 1 as the day the Chinese couple tested positive, but if you don't count that first 3 and act like their day 1 started in Lombardy it's different.

So Italy's Day 1, is not Italy's Day 1.

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 04:08AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

and???

ITALY: January 31st has its first case confirmed.
One month later……
IRELAND: February 29th has its first case confirmed.
Ireland March 26th 1819 cases compared to Italy February 26th 374 cases

As I said earlier, With a population a quarter that of Northern Italy, our numbers in Rep. of Irl. are very high.

There were thousands of misdiagnosed cases in Italy that led to the situation in Italy

And don't give me the per rata crap its totally nonsense

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:11AM

marilynrr wrote: »

Start from 'patient 1' in Italy instead of Italys first confirmed case.
He went to the doctor on the 14th of February, he went to the hospital after that, there was no suspicion of covid-19, no precautions were taken. No attempt to protect staff or stop the spread from a person who may have potentially had Covid-19. It was only a week later that patient 1, his pregnant wife and his friend all tested positive. That's when it all started to kick off in Lombardy.

I know all of this, and yet, one month in, with all our knowledge (with our 'heads-up') our numbers are higher.

They shouldn't be higher.....surely?

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:14AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

So Italy's Day 1, is not Italy's Day 1.

Well it's entirely possible. It might have been day 1 technically but not day 1 for when we should be comparing like for like figures. For all we know that Chinese couple didn't spread it to anyone. Their 3rd was probably quarantined and didn't spread it to anyone either.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:14AM

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

There were thousands of misdiagnosed cases in Italy that led to the situation in Italy

And don't give me the per rata crap its totally nonsense

Well that's not nice.

rossie1977 · 27-03-2020 04:20AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I know all of this, and yet, one month in, with all our knowledge (with our 'heads-up') our numbers are higher.

They shouldn't be higher.....surely?

You are confusing confirmed with actual. Obviously there was tens of thousands infected in Lombardy while the Italians thought there was only 3.

On Feb 22nd Italy had 79 confirmed cases. 14 days later it was 4,636 confirmed and 197 dead.

On March 13th Ireland had 90 confirmed cases. 14 days later its 1,819 confirmed and 19 deaths.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:22AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I know all of this, and yet, one month in, with all our knowledge (with our 'heads-up') our numbers are higher.

They shouldn't be higher.....surely?

By your logic are we not far worse than the USA too?

They had their first confirmed case on the 21st of January
on the 20th of February they had only 14!!!

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:23AM

marilynrr wrote: »

Well it's entirely possible. For all we know that Chinese couple didn't infect anyone. Their 3rd was probably quarantined and didn't infect anyone either.

I really thought, that a month in with a population a quarter that of N Italy, our numbers would be lower than theirs.(Italy's)

Especially, as I pointed out, our population is just a fraction of theirs.

I thought it didn't bode well for us. I am on my own in this.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03