CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

yourdeadwright · 25-03-2020 12:13PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

to get to 70% thats about 160k ICU cases on the island, how long do we think this will take

that's the scary part

no idea to be honest ,

Corkgirl20 · 25-03-2020 12:13PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This is the root of the problem.

Will there be a surge again if everything is opened back up and people go back to normal routine?

Do the benefits of opening up outweigh the risks?

No one seems to have an answer to that yet (except Trump who wants everything back to normal by Easter).

A vaccine is the only long term solution.

I would assume they’ll reopen slowly just like they closed slowly.

For example clothes shops will start to open then a while later hair dressers while all trying to maintain social distancing and see how it goes and slowly start to reopen the schools etc.

I really do hope the schools don’t open too early with a lot of children having mild symptoms that will cause massive spreading.

the.red.baron · 25-03-2020 12:13PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Of course it's not... agreed.

I was just stating it, to drive home the flawed logic that is being put out there, by so-called "experts" in this country!

Our medics desperately need PPE, like masks etc... to keep themselves safe from this dangerous virus.

Yet a healthy person wearing a mask out on the street, is pointless apparently... because it doesn't protect you from the virus. Only sick people should wear them, to protect healthy people! :rolleyes:

Seriously, we could learn a lot from many Asian countries in how they tackle these situations. They have quite a bit more common sense and logical thinking!

The kind of logical thinking that gets you this or say the hantavirus

JRant · 25-03-2020 12:14PM

Scotty # wrote: »

You've answered your own question.

Until we have a vaccine or her immunity (no evidence yet that that would work) this will continue.

The only other option is to reopen the country and let nature take it's course. This seems to be what Trump wants to do.

How can we maintain this shutdown for 12-18 months?
Christ schools children alone would be at a huge disadvantage if it was to carry-on for that length of time. What happens with all the self-employed people? Just tell them to sit on the dole for 18 months.

It's not a real world solution and anyone peddling it needs their head examined. Even 12-18 weeks would be a tough one but probably just about manageable, although the cost to the country will be astronomical even at that.

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 12:14PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

What's the story with all these people in Oz asking for a plane to bring them home?

They want to come back to help. Aer Lingus can swing by when it's getting the PPE stuff on Sunday!

stephenjmcd · 25-03-2020 12:14PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

to get to 70% thats about 160k ICU cases on the island, how long do we think this will take

that's the scary part

Nobody says it will actually get to 70% of the population.

Thats an extreme worst case scenario. Even at that 80% or more wouldn't require hospital admission

Roger_007 · 25-03-2020 12:14PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Problem is, if they are unable to bring it under control everywhere at the same time it could be never-ending. If the North starts getting better and the South becomes bad at the same time, then the South could contaminate the North again so if they want to avoid that they are in for another month or 2 of country-wide travel bans and lockdowns :-/

This is precisely the problem. And it’s not just for a month or two., it could be a year or two.
That is why the current ‘lockdowns’ across the world are unsustainable in the longer term. At some point things are going to get out of control in a public order and industrial relations sense. Workers in the very labour intensive food industry, for instance, will down tools at some point because they won’t want to be in the ‘firing line’.
There is no prospect that this virus is going to be contained anytime soon and a vaccine is still at least a year away. Does anyone seriously believe that a lockdown can be maintained for that length of time. I don’t!

caveat emptor · 25-03-2020 12:14PM

Naos wrote: »

To the posters that are saying the amount of test results we are producing is pathetic, what is your solution?

Bearing in mind that there is only a finite amount of testing that can be done in the labs and that you need people who are actually qualified to conduct these tests (normally requiring 5+ years of education).

So if your solution is more labs or more lab technicians then that's fine but please provide details as to how we would achieve that in the 2-3 month timespan since this virus has been known or speculated to be as impactful as it has been.

Look across the water.....

Army moves in: Military seize testing machines from private laboratories for urgent coronavirus checks on NHS staff

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146055/Army-seizes-testing-machines-ministers-race-carry-coronavirus-checks-NHS-staff.html

PokeHerKing · 25-03-2020 12:15PM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Quote from Dr David Zaruk, environmental-health risk analyst and professor based in Brussels. He has worked in risk management and science communications for industry, public institutions and the academe since the 1990s. He writes a blog under the name The Risk-Monger.
*************************************************************

H1N1 led to the loss of up to 575,000 lives in the first year of circulation in 2009. While there was concern (especially as the vaccine was not available until the end of the first year), there was no mass global precautionary lockdown or strangulation of economic activity (which was just recovering from the financial crisis the year before). Why is our present reaction so extreme compared to H1N1? While some would say it did not affect wealthy western countries, it did (there were 60 million cases in the US leading to over 12,000 deaths).

H1N1 was normalised. It was called a flu (swine flu) so people understood it in the context of how to manage influenza outbreaks. COVID-19 is called a virus – a coronavirus! In public perception terms, we might as well call it the “corona-plague”. There are many strains of influenza and we accept that the flu will not go away. It is part of life and, for far too many, the cause of death. At times our healthcare system is overwhelmed by flu outbreaks (as the British NHS was in the days leading up to the British election in December, 2019).

Vaccine-makers try to anticipate the strains that will dominate in any season. COVID-19 will not go away but will likely become one more strain to consider in the vaccine lottery. We need to normalise our vocabulary so the mass public precautionary panic plateaus.

575k deaths is the revised and highest total of an overall estimated fatality rate. The WHO reckon around 200k died but that was only established years after the pandemic subsided and all lab results checked.

Many people believe that the infection rate of Covid is x10 higher than reported and they're probably right but I imagine the death rate is also x10 than being reported.

Either way this is quite clearly worse than swine flu. It's only 3 months in and the recorded death toll is as large as the recorded death toll for the first year of swine flu. Before any revision of the numbers.

JP Liz V1 · 25-03-2020 12:15PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

People keep mentioning south Korea as being the successful and transparent in halting the spread which correct on both counts.

However, it's worth pointing out despite having a regime in place any other country would find hugely difficult to implement they still have roughly 100 new cases per day. 6 deaths today as well.

On the plus side that's managable.

What is the full numbers for South Korea so far

Tacitus Kilgore · 25-03-2020 12:15PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

whats this go to do with the virus exacty

x2^

markfinn · 25-03-2020 12:16PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The contrast in leadership between China and the EU is remarkable. The Chinese took time to react but when they did, they declared war on this, locking down and shutting down all transport in and out of Hubei province.
The EU did nothing when it was clear Northern Italy was the epicentre in Europe.

Turns out Dictatorship and total disregard for human rights have an upside...

Would the price be worth it to establish such a system in Ireland? Tough call.

Donald Trump · 25-03-2020 12:16PM

JRant wrote: »

How can we maintain this shutdown for 12-18 months?
Christ schools children alone would be at a huge disadvantage if it was to carry-on for that length of time. What happens with all the self-employed people? Just tell them to sit on the dole for 18 months.

It's not a real world solution and anyone peddling it needs their head examined. Even 12-18 weeks would be a tough one but probably just about manageable, although the cost to the country will be astronomical even at that.

Who would school children be disadvantaged against?
All the schools are shut.

yourdeadwright · 25-03-2020 12:16PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

The contrast in leadership between China and the EU is remarkable. The Chinese took time to react but when they did, they declared war on this, locking down and shutting down all transport in and out of Hubei province.
The EU did nothing when it was clear Northern Italy was the epicentre in Europe.

Do you really think Europe could react like China ?

Its a different world they locked apartment gates and dragged people back into there houses ,
You do realise the governments of Europe simply can not act like this ,

Chin's government do what they want regardless of there people its a different world than the one we live in ,

the.red.baron · 25-03-2020 12:16PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Nobody says it will actually get to 70% of the population.

Thats an extreme worst case scenario. Even at that 80% or more wouldn't require hospital admission

thats is exactly what what asked and what we are looking at

if a vaccine can be developed by next year then the time frame doesn't change much

look how it has spread, the reality is you will get it

stephenjmcd · 25-03-2020 12:17PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Look across the water.....

Army moves in: Military seize testing machines from private laboratories for urgent coronavirus checks on NHS staff

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146055/Army-seizes-testing-machines-ministers-race-carry-coronavirus-checks-NHS-staff.html

What's your point ? We're bringing the private hosptial labs online with an eventual capacity of 15k per day within the next 2 weeks.

Every post you seem to have an issue with and that's mainly having a pop at how the HSE and Gov have handled it.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 25-03-2020 12:17PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

The kind of logical thinking that gets you this or say the hantavirus

I'm sure we produced plenty of killer viruses, when we were poor as fcuk too... any area that is very poor, will inevitably have terrible hygiene issues!

Not that I am making excuses for some of the practices in China, that led to this btw... you cannot defend their treatment of animals in those markets.

Loafing Oaf · 25-03-2020 12:18PM

JRant wrote: »

How can we maintain this shutdown for 12-18 months?
Christ schools children alone would be at a huge disadvantage if it was to carry-on for that length of time. What happens with all the self-employed people? Just tell them to sit on the dole for 18 months.

It's not a real world solution and anyone peddling it needs their head examined. Even 12-18 weeks would be a tough one but probably just about manageable, although the cost to the country will be astronomical even at that.

So what's your alternative? Let the virus rip the way spanish flu did and get the tens of thousands of deaths (of mostly elderly/infirm) out of the way?

Jinglejangle69 · 25-03-2020 12:18PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They want to come back to help. Aer Lingus can swing by when it's getting the PPE stuff on Sunday!

No I'm talking about normal peoole who want out now.

Eoin ó Broin is giving out saying the government should send a jet.

I'm sorry but they should have left weeks ago.

We all knew this was coming.

But late crying about it now.

the.red.baron · 25-03-2020 12:19PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Who would school children be disadvantaged against?
All the schools are shut.

a year of education, leaving cert progression to college next year

pH · 25-03-2020 12:19PM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Can someone briefly explain what the end game is here

Social distancing will obviously work in helping the HSE and preventing deaths

However as things stand we will have to do this indefinitely until there is a vaccine. Some estimate 12 to 18 months

Is it sustainable or will we all go mad ?

If we could clear the country of coronavirus:

Sealing of the borders with a 14 day mandatory secure quarantine for anyone entering the country would work.

Other experts are saying another approach that would work is if we ramped up testing to crazy levels - For example you have a cough and call a number-> 2 hours later you are tested with immediate results and quarantined if necessary and contact tracing is then performed and all contacts tested/isolated.

Sadly we need to be choosing one of these now, and either creating this new rapid test/trace department and getting it staffed and its logistics sorted, or passing legislation for enforced quarantines choosing staffing and securing quarantine centres.

Otherwise it's all for nothing, as soon as you release lockdowns and have new cases entering the country and R0 > 1 again the epidemic will just start again.

An Ciarraioch · 25-03-2020 12:19PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What is the full numbers for South Korea so far

9,137 cases, 126 deaths.

YFlyer · 25-03-2020 12:20PM

Housemate takes the used tea towels out of the washing machine when washing his clothes instead of washing them as well.

weldoninhio · 25-03-2020 12:20PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Best man for the HSE job alright.

What we need is a man who will charge money for hospital admissions and even more if you want a bed, respirator, room, or nurse.

Maybe get onto any colleges in Ireland that do journalism and see if any of their students have dropped out and put them in charge?? Same qualifications as Simple Simon.

Donald Trump · 25-03-2020 12:21PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

a year of education, leaving cert progression to college next year

Everyone in the same boat. No disadvantage

the.red.baron · 25-03-2020 12:21PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

I'm sure we produce plenty of killer viruses, when we were poor as fcuk too... any area that is very poor, will inevitably have terrible hygiene issues!

Not that I am making excuses for some of the practices in China, that led to this btw... you cannot defend their treatment of animals in those markets.

so they are very logical but not very hygienic

we are dealing with this in quite a logical manner

What else are we going to do exactly?

JRant · 25-03-2020 12:21PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Who would school children be disadvantaged against?
All the schools are shut.

Children missing that length of time in school would be a huge concern and leave them so far behind where they should be educationally.

1800_Ladladlad · 25-03-2020 12:22PM

Number two is not bad at all.

https://twitter.com/theworldindex/status/1242246148741574658

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 12:22PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

No I'm talking about normal peoole who want out now.

Eoin ó Broin is giving out saying the government should send a jet.

I'm sorry but they should have left weeks ago.

We all knew this was coming.

But late crying about it now.

Oh right, missed that. Tourists in Peru are being sorted. Anyone else IMO should just stay put and wait it out. O'Broin is yet another one on a very long list we should be paying no attention to at this time.

yourdeadwright · 25-03-2020 12:22PM

the.red.baron wrote: »

thats is exactly what what asked and what we are looking at

if a vaccine can be developed by next year then the time frame doesn't change much

look how it has spread, the reality is you will get it

If everyone does in fact get it (which they won't ) and with current the growth rate continues ,
It would mean everyone in the country will have it before the summer is over ,

I'm not great at Maths but everyone would have it by the time June is out id expect ?

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP