A must read for the ''lockdown'' brigade.

Thank you for this.

Some Load of fecking eejits around the place shouting 'lockdown, lockdown!' when they haven't a clue what something like that would take, or how it would probably put us on our arse ten times worse than any crash would.

Are you currently in Ireland?

I'm not, but speaking to my parents in Donegal they don't seem to find the shutdown excessive. And I don't think they've been stopped by the Guards on their way to Tesco yet.

Its a moot point. Why?

The Garda + Garda Reserve + Defence Forces + DF Reserve + Civil Defence units total about 30,000 personnel.

Thats before you takeaway command staff, those that are ill or in isolation, on long term sick leave for other reasons, or recently post-partum, or personnel required for securing essential facilities etc etc.

Lets say conservatively, that leaves 20,000 bodies to try and enforce a lockdown on 5 million people in a sparsely populated 70,000 square kms.

The Government will continue to rely on the common sense of most people to help tackle this, because there simply isn't the muscle available to do otherwise.

What Greta said.

Mandatory home confinement does not require a policeman outside every front door, plus one around the back in case you decide to get smart.

In Italy, at the moment, you can only leave your home for selected reasons (to buy food, to go to the doctor/chemist . . .).

It's a self-certification system; before you leave the house, you fill out a form with details of the journey you will make and ticking a box for the justification for that journey. You bring that form with you when you leave the house. You can be stopped (e.g. at a checkpoint) and asked to produce your form, and then your story can be checked out. If you're found at a place or at a time that doesn't tally with the journey that you are supposed to be making, or if your claim to have a doctor's appointment doesn't stack up, fines ensue.

In China, you register your intended excursion online (using an app) and they send you back a QR code which will be coloured either red (stay at home) or green (you can make your journey). When you're out and about you can be asked to produce your phone, with QR code. If the code is green you may get waved on, or they may scan it to check that where you are now corresponds with the excursion that has been authorised. Policemen, for example, will often scan your QR code, whereas supermarkets and pharmacists are likely just to check the colour. Your QR code disappears from your phone when your excursion is supposed to have been completed, by which time you should be at home. You need to repeat the process if you want to go out again.

The Italian system is easily replicated; I believe the Chinese are freely sharing the app and associated software with governments that want to use it for CV quarantine purposes.

Perhaps not. But I think it would be a fairly straightforward matter to write an app that does basically the same job. The point is that we are long past the era where enforcing a quarantine required a policeman at every street corner. It would be a challenge, but not an insurmountable challenge.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The app thing would be good as well in terms of matching where people may have interacted.

I'm a bit surprised governments haven't been telling people to switch on their location history, and we haven't seen calls for Google and Apple to share it or use it to find links. The amount of data available for tracing people would be huge.

As the Israelis are proving, you don’t need to switch it on for countries with decent intelligence services to know where you are.

As for the lockdown, it won’t be enforced by a copper on every street. It’ll be enforced by social pressure and people reporting non-conformists who will be dealt with individually. Not since the war and maybe blackouts have we had to see this level of control on what we do, but it’s make or break stuff and the individualists and libertarians are gonna just have to get with the programme.

Lockdown is going to have to happen at certain times to relax pressure on the hospitals.

We don't know the long term effects of this virus. Getting sick is all well and good to build immunity but that doesn't mean you can't get it again therefore spread it.

This is going to be a long year

joeguevara wrote: »

There are two things that are important. Unless we fully know the long term effects the virus can have on people who get it, allowing full infection to develop immunity might mean severe lung damage.

On that point, an Italian doctor was on RTE radio last weekend saying that recovered patients did not have permanent lung damage.

I do have a concern that we in this country have a tendency to jump in with both feet. We particularly relish being ahead of the Brits and scolding them for not keeping up. Eg, with the school closure. I just hope the powers that be, are prepared to consider less onerous restrictions than a complete lockdown, before they contemplate imposing a lockdown (even in specific areas only). Though, I think they are right to pass whatever legislation is needed to allow it. According to the IT today, the existing 1947 health act has extensive powers for control of infectious diseases, but still needs to be brought up to date.

Our two choices are simple given we are on same trajectory as Italy just Italy from February 25th or 26th

1. Test as much per capita as South Korea and quarantine everyone who tests positive
Or
2. Lockdown

Come early April if we haven't done #1 then #2 is inevitable

A lockdown will only be necessary if people are stupid, and don't distance. I'm sure the public health people are looking at patterns of social distancing, and deciding whether we are doing enough. Other than a few obvious cases where we could do better, we seem to be doing a reasonably good job - most times I hear about people mixing is outdoors, which isn't going to be as dangerous as indoor meetings.

If we had an area with large-scale community transmission, I wouldn't be surprised if that area was told to stay indoors.

Lock-downs are a terrible thing for both physical and mental health, and will lead to further large-scale job losses. We shouldn't be rushing into them, and those people cheerleading for them also need to cop-on and appreciate the consequences. This will not be over in a couple of weeks - any measure we introduce will last months.

they have done well, buy time, implement measures , fine. I am not really prepared to live like a hermit for months, I am living alone now, I dont think locking down the entire country for months, is acceptable. Start addressing the key issues, let the elderly shop in the early hours or whatever, ban kids from grocery shops whatever. But shutting the country down for a few weeks is one thing, from a social and financial perspective. Shutting it down for months, is going to create serious social and financial problems...

you'd wonder could they even create like "elderly day" or "elderly hour" where the younger would just avoid pharmacies, gp, shops , hair dressers etc and maybe even public transport...

China is one thing, the Irish are doing very well now and pulling together. Its fascinating to see how this is all going to unfold...

What do you think will happen.
Close everything down for a couple of weeks.
Virus gone. Then what??

Because as soon as anyone goes up the North, over to see a football match, a holiday to Spain, they come home and bring the virus home with them. We are back to square 1.

Or do we keep all airports and ports closed, no people in or out. No products in or out. Nothing. For 2 years maybe more until a vaccine is created, IF a vaccine is created.

2 weeks quarantine somewhere for everyone coming into Ireland. This would make your 1 week Spanish holiday 3 weeks long!

But what about produce, Covid 19 was discovered on surfaces 17 days after everyone left the Diamond Princess. So no imports or exports.
This would also mean
No packages from Asos, Boohoo or any other places people order from.

Idiots haven't a clue and screaming for a Lock down. Lock down will not help us.