CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP

Goldengirl · 19-03-2020 03:12PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

60% infection rate, i think the UK were aiming for for herd immunity, (thought you'd need higher myself, but then i thought herd immunity wouldn't be a solution to even aim for)

>Italian mortality is currently about 8.6%

that's of patients who have been tested positive, there'll be a lot 'in the community' either not showing symptoms, or just not tested

True. These are only indicative figures of mortality of patients confirmed in Italy.
Really the correct figures will only come out for mortality of this disease when all numbers include those who are positive in the community but treated at home. This may reduce the Italian mortality rate , when they get a chance to do that.

As with Germany's supposedly inaccurate mortality rates , figures are only as trustworthy as the way they are arrived at .
If the Germans are actually reporting deaths from Covid -19 as based on the patient's underlying condition instead, and I am not sure if I have seen anything yet that proves this supposition, this is an inaccurate portrayal of the effects of the virus.
I would think that if countries are doing this they should get called upon by the ECDC and the WHO to adjust the figures to reflect the impact of the virus.
After all this is a pandemic that requires accurate reporting, as it is a requirement for research and epidemiological studies in future to protect against future pandemics

Our figures are not reducing this week. A lot if people who are ill are reportedly not been tested as the HSE ran into difficulties with lack of testing capability and referral system crashing since this weekend.
Hopefully this will be corrected but it is going to ensure lower figures than are accurate this week.

Also herd immunity? The only scientific advisor baying on about this is the chief scientific advisor in the UK.
This has largely been discredited as not viable by the rest of the world's science community, as there is no proof yet that any I immunity will be conveyed by this virus , and that indeed everyone may become infected again by a second wave of this virus next Winter. We may have to be immunised yearly when vaccines become available as with the flu virus.
It shows how influenced we are by English originated news reports that people repeat this again and again , because if they said it on the news( BBC or Sky news) it must be true? The UK approach is so far off what the rest of the countries in Europe are doing , largely down to this advice from their CSA , why would anyone believe that it is worth listening to, never mind quoting , please?

cnocbui · 19-03-2020 03:13PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Possibly in a previous edition of this thread, someone posted an age distribution of positive cases in Germany and they were on average, decades younger than in Italy, with relatively few people in the 70+ age bracket getting it. If that age distribution was correct, it is more than enough to explain the low death rate, but of course begs the question of why such a huge difference in age distribution?

I found the applicable stats:

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-03-12-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

There is a good article on the relative scenarios in different countries, that in particular covers the age distributions, here: https://medium.com/@andreasbackhausab/coronavirus-why-its-so-deadly-in-italy-c4200a15a7bf

is_that_so · 19-03-2020 03:13PM

silverharp wrote: »

looks like this drug will be part of the mix

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1240620268730470400

There's a trial about to kick off in Australia on two possibilities, one anti-malarial.
https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/03/researchers-set-begin-clinical-trials-coronavirus-cure

There's also a trial starting next week in the UK.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/race-to-create-covid-19-treatment-as-clinical-trial-given-go-ahead-988726.html

otnomart · 19-03-2020 03:13PM

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

What are Germany at? Covering up deaths by attributing them to underlying illness? I can't see the point in doing this.

Or are they just putting down Pneumonia as the cause of death for all Covid-19 cases?

As much as I want to believe that they are having much better success in treating this I just don't...

Letter by Virologist Ilaria Capua from University of Florida (bio: http://www.epi.ufl.edu/people/faculty-profiles/ilaria-capua/)
asking the EU to develop common guidelines to classify the deaths:
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_marzo_16/virologa-capua-mamma-europa-sbrigati-dacci-regole-comuni-classificare-ogni-caso-39ddf8de-674f-11ea-93a4-da8ab3a8afb1.shtml?

Christy42 · 19-03-2020 03:13PM

silverharp wrote: »

looks like this drug will be part of the mix

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1240620268730470400

New York Post and now Fox style news places have been quick to hype up cures/vaccines. I don't see it elsewhere on reliable sites so I would not get hopes up.

Especially when they try and push a 100% style figure. Generally rings alarm bells.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 19-03-2020 03:14PM

madcabbage wrote: »

Maybe Germany is just doing a very good job so far. Sure look at our stats, 2 dead and and 366 cases, we'll be doing very well if that death count stays in single digits.

Yep... I think it is plausible that they're just doing a better job with this than other nations right now!

Rather than throwing around unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, about them fiddling the numbers... perhaps we should try to find out how they're tackling this, and get cracking doing whatever they're doing! (and quick)

jojofizzio · 19-03-2020 03:16PM

bilston wrote: »

Premier League in England suspension extended until 30th April.

I know a lot of people will say they don't care and there are more important things, and this is true, but I actually find sport (pretty much any sport) quite soothing in testing times and we don't even have that on this occasion.

I'd love to think the Olympics might happen at the end of July, but no matter what the IOC say I find it hard to believe they will happen. But it is too early to make a call.

Is t it the case that a huge amount of athletes won’t be able to train ahead of the Olympics??would be amazed if it proceeds(for a variety of reasons)

19-03-2020 03:17PM

silverharp wrote: »

looks like this drug will be part of the mix

https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1240620268730470400

is_that_so wrote: »

There's a trial about to kick off in Australia on two possibilities, one anti-malarial.
https://www.uq.edu.au/news/article/2020/03/researchers-set-begin-clinical-trials-coronavirus-cure

There's also a trial starting next week in the UK.

https://www.breakingnews.ie/world/race-to-create-covid-19-treatment-as-clinical-trial-given-go-ahead-988726.html

Have to be very very careful with rushing to produce and administer these kind of drugs. Not too hard to imagine a kickback from this in a few years time.

Strazdas · 19-03-2020 03:18PM

pH wrote: »

Around West Dublin this morning, people out in force in the nice weather, chemists have locked doors, and a few shops seems closed, but many people out in force, walking with kids, buying coffee etc. Many elderly people too (though to be fair mainly walking alone). Busses reasonably empty but this wasn't rush hour by any means.

I would not be surprised if this level of 'social distancing' isn't enough to halt the outbreak.

Families walking together is not so much an issue, even four or five people : it's the need to keep away from 'other' families.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-03-2020 03:19PM

Christy42 wrote: »

New York Post and now Fox style news places have been quick to hype up cures/vaccines. I don't see it elsewhere on reliable sites so I would not get hopes up.

Especially when they try and push a 100% style figure. Generally rings alarm bells.

Of course, they know this could end Trump's chances of re election. When the full scale of the crisis emerges people will get very unhappy after all his "nothing to see here" guff.

Cork Boy 53 · 19-03-2020 03:20PM

Not wishing ill on them or anything but statistically some of our TDs and senators are going to test positive for the virus and some of the older age group in particular seriously ill. Food for thought.

is_that_so · 19-03-2020 03:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Have to be very very careful with rushing to produce and administer these kind of drugs. Not too hard to imagine a kickback from this in a few years time.

The drugs in the Australian one are already approved for other conditions, they want to see if one or the other works better on Covid-19. I know little about the UK one but looks like a similar attempted retasking of an existing drug as a treatment. All early days and lots of things will be tried.

Timberrrrrrrr · 19-03-2020 03:23PM

walshb wrote: »

Owl Linda Lusardi the latest z lister to be struck down

If I remember correctly she had a fine set of lungs on her.

dublin99 · 19-03-2020 03:24PM

Bannasidhe wrote: »

.

Please don't scaremonger. Vets -in Ireland! - are already reporting people are requesting perfectly healthy dogs be PTS 'in case' they get the virus, and rescues are reporting a notable increase in 'stray' dogs which they suspect have been abandoned out of fear they can get the virus.

https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202003/04/P2020030400658.htm

This is not scaremongering. This is a fact. A second dog, a two year old German Shepherd has tested positive. Dod owners should be aware of it!

Professor Malik Peiris, a leading public health virologist at the University of Hong Kong:
“It is very likely that the two positive cases [in Hong Kong] are examples of human to dog transmission”

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3075993/coronavirus-hong-kong-confirms-second-dog

19-03-2020 03:24PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Not wishing ill on them or anything but statistically some of our TDs and senators are going to test positive for the virus and some of the older age group in particular seriously ill. Food for thought.

A candid observation. They're human beings like the rest of us.

caveat emptor · 19-03-2020 03:24PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

If in Italy someone has the coronavirus and they die they are assumed to have died of it. Its not necessarily number fiddling. Its just how the classify things.

The other thing worth noting is that I believe the German number of cases a lot more than the Italian or Spanish number of cases. Again I'm not saying anyone is fiddling just Spain and Italy are a little too overwhelmed to do contact tracing or community testing while it continues on in Germany.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

How do you know they are doing this?

Do you have any links to anything?

I have been struggling to find much info on what exactly they're doing differently...

No worries.

I've not seen evidence but might be buried in this thread. It could be they are that much better than everyone but it seems very unlikely given the characteristics of this disease.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1240097655516168193

New Home · 19-03-2020 03:25PM

froog wrote: »

he seems like a smart guy. but how do you explain the massive sudden requirement for ICU and ventilation equipment? if this was nothing out of the ordinary this would not be the case. health systems would not be overloaded like we saw in wuhan, like we are seeing in Italy and Spain. it just doesn't make sense.

maybe someone can explain his argument better to me though, i'm not sure I fully grasp his logic.

Well, they (the hospitals and ICUs) are obviously making it up, there's no other logical explanation. :rolleyes:

... but then again, I'm not scientisty enough to understand these things. And my favourite colour is sparkly.

pH · 19-03-2020 03:26PM

froog wrote: »

he seems like a smart guy. but how do you explain the massive sudden requirement for ICU and ventilation equipment? if this was nothing out of the ordinary this would not be the case. health systems would not be overloaded like we saw in wuhan, like we are seeing in Italy and Spain. it just doesn't make sense.

maybe someone can explain his argument better to me though, i'm not sure I fully grasp his logic.

"Wolfgang Wodarg says:
The corona hype is not based on any extraordinary public health danger. However, it causes considerable damage to our freedom and personal rights through frivolous and unjustified quarantine measures and restrictions. The images in the media are frightening and the traffic in China's cities seems to be regulated by the clinical thermometer.
Evidence-based epidemiological assessment is drowning in the mainstream of fear mongers in labs, media, and ministries."

And this is the problem that someone like Boris Johnson (and Trump) had in the last few weeks. These points of view are out there, from serious people with actual credentials in virology and epidemics.

The world was a very difference place 30 days ago:
"Did the US overreact to the outbreak" (18 Feb)
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051011/science-vs-politics-did-us-overreact-coronavirus-outbreak-china

Angela Rasmussen, a virologist who serves on the faculty at the Center for Infection and Immunity at Columbia University’s school of public health.

Rolling Stone: You’ve argued that “containment is no longer possible” with coronavirus and “it’s now time to shift to mitigation.” How should that change our strategy and tactics in dealing with this outbreak?

Angela Rasmussen: We need to focus on trying to minimize the spread. And that means two things. First of all: making sure that our health care systems are prepared. It also means educating the public about what coronavirus in their community means, how to protect themselves, how to minimize their exposure risks — and also not to panic and overwhelm their health care systems, which is my biggest concern.

Rolling Stone (March 2nd)
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/containment-failed-coronavirus-spreading-america-960309/

I could go on and keep linking these articles and quoting experts, but I won't. And this is why we need to give people like Boris Johnson and (dare I say it) even Trump some slack.

froog · 19-03-2020 03:28PM

whats really baffling in germany is the active cases stats - 13,481 in mild condition, just 2 in severe/critical.

something really isn't adding up there.

did they get a much less severe strain?

Mervyn Skidmore · 19-03-2020 03:28PM

jojofizzio wrote: »

Is t it the case that a huge amount of athletes won’t be able to train ahead of the Olympics??would be amazed if it proceeds(for a variety of reasons)

A big fat lad winning the 100m.

Kivaro · 19-03-2020 03:30PM

pH wrote: »

Around West Dublin this morning, people out in force in the nice weather, chemists have locked doors, and a few shops seems closed, but many people out in force, walking with kids, buying coffee etc. Many elderly people too (though to be fair mainly walking alone). Busses reasonably empty but this wasn't rush hour by any means.

I would not be surprised if this level of 'social distancing' isn't enough to halt the outbreak.

It is obvious that many people in Ireland do no understand the concept of social distancing, and it is evident all over the country.
An "official" enforced lock-down is the only alternative since a large number of people are not listening to best practices ............. or they just don't care.

jojofizzio · 19-03-2020 03:31PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

A big fat lad winning the 100m.

Japanese PM?seems like he’s the only one wiling and able at this stage...

froog · 19-03-2020 03:31PM

New Home wrote: »

Well, they're obviously making it up, there's no other logical explanation. :rolleyes:

... but then again, I'm not scientisty enough to understand these things. And my favourite colour is sparkly.

also when googling that guy, he is massive critic of the global response to H1N1 (and which most people actually do agree the world went completely overboard on a disease less harmful than the regular flu). so you can see why he's skeptical of this one.

but he's being willfully ignorant of certain facts, and perhaps supported by his own country's figures which do not match up at all with the rest of the world.

Tell me how · 19-03-2020 03:31PM

Christy42 wrote: »

New York Post and now Fox style news places have been quick to hype up cures/vaccines. I don't see it elsewhere on reliable sites so I would not get hopes up.

Especially when they try and push a 100% style figure. Generally rings alarm bells.

I'm living in US and find the media around this bizarre. For a lot of the national cable stations such as Fox and CNN, if you read their reports, it would not sound much different to at home, but when you actually watch the piece it sounds the exact same as so many other fear based items which they often broadcast frequently with words like 'might' 'it could' 'it's possible' but in the same tone and manner in which they then go on to talk about Tom Brady leaving the New England Patriots.

I suspect that until the last day or 2 many Americans were subconsciously thinking' it's just another hoax like the 100's they hear every year.

Comparing it to back home, the media in Ireland is way more focused, serious and instructive than here. Way, way more.

Also, house mate returned from Caribbean last night having cut short his holiday. In St Lucia, (effectively a 3rd world country) they would not give him his passport when he arrived there until he completed the documentation saying where he would be staying for the next month in case they needed to contact trace him.

When he landed at Logan in Boston, he was asked zero questions and wasn't even scanned for fever.

Prominent social commentators have been encouraging people to socialise throughout this and some televangelists have encouraged congregants in their churches to shake hands and embrace because God will not let you get ill in his house.

It is changing, but given their paltry level of testing, I fear the horse may have bolted already here.

Space Dog · 19-03-2020 03:31PM

froog wrote: »

whats really baffling in germany is the active cases stats - 13,481 in mild condition, just 2 in severe/critical.

something really isn't adding up there.

did they get a much less severe strain?

Maybe they just have the resources and means to not let it progress to critical for a lot of patients?

caveat emptor · 19-03-2020 03:31PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

Yep... I think it is plausible that they're just doing a better job with this than other nations right now!

Rather than throwing around unsubstantiated conspiracy theories, about them fiddling the numbers... perhaps we should try to find out how they're tackling this, and get cracking doing whatever they're doing! (and quick)

Postmortem testing differs. Italy does it. Germany doesn't. Not magic.

https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/coronavirus-in-europa-letalitaet-in-deutschland-30-mal-niedriger-als-in-italien-wie-ist-das-moeglich/25626678.html

pH · 19-03-2020 03:32PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

A big fat lad winning the 100m.

Maybe Trevor's year?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XpjigCffIX8

drunkmonkey · 19-03-2020 03:32PM

froog wrote: »

whats really baffling in germany is the active cases stats - 13,481 in mild condition, just 2 in severe/critical.

something really isn't adding up there.

did they get a much less severe strain?

It's the powerhouse of Europe, their either fudging the numbers to keep the economy on track or they genuinely have a great health system and the people are doing what there told, they are very strict as a people so I'd be inclined to go with the latter.

dougm1970 · 19-03-2020 03:33PM

froog wrote: »

whats really baffling in germany is the active cases stats - 13,481 in mild condition, just 2 in severe/critical.

something really isn't adding up there.

did they get a much less severe strain?

think people said on here its because they are attributing the deaths to the underlying conditions and not the virus itself....and that there have been deaths.

ThePopehimself · 19-03-2020 03:33PM

New Home wrote: »

Well, they're obviously making it up, there's no other logical explanation. :rolleyes:

... but then again, I'm not scientisty enough to understand these things. And my favourite colour is sparkly.

CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP