CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

jamesf85 · 17-03-2020 01:57PM

jamesf85 wrote: »

Just a quick question. How many people are infected with the flu in say a city like Madrid at any one time?

These infection numbers mean very little when we don't know the overall number.

5000 infected sounds huge if mortality rate is 3.5%.

But what if there's 200,000 infected and there are 175 deaths.

Ireland on average has 200 to 500 deaths because of the flu each year with thousands hospitalised. I understand this is many times greater than the flu and will most likely have our health care busting at the seams.

pH · 17-03-2020 01:57PM

Wombatman wrote: »

What? Don't get what you are saying her? Closing schools is not about reducing the spread? Am....... yes it is.

Because it's complicated and nuanced, and sadly not everyone is capable of understanding it.

There are 2 very different approaches, and both involve 'reducing the spread' so that's irrelevant.

A) Mitigation
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing) to a level where the health service can cope but don't attempt to eradicate the disease (Original UK proposal/current Dutch position) Keep this up for a few 'tough' months until the population has enough 'herd immunity' so the disease no longer has epidemic potential.

Suppression
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing+ much more .. up as far as complete lockdown like Italy) to a level where the the spread of the disease is reversed and controlled at zero (or very low levels) South Korea have done this, and it is currently Ireland's and the UK's official policy (But not the Netherlands)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-we-wont-impose-national-lockdown-coronavirus-covid19/

As you can see both approaches reduce the spread, but are very very different.

This is a good write up:
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51915302

And yes, as of 8:40pm last night The Netherlands were still saying mitigation was their official policy.

EDit · 17-03-2020 01:58PM

completedit wrote: »

True. I just feel there is an element who are falling for the misery porn of it all. It’s serious, not entertainment,

I don’t doubt there are people who are “excited” that something historical Is spicing up their mundane lives. Guarantee that it won’t be so exciting after 2, 3, 4+ weeks of isolation

RandomName2 · 17-03-2020 01:59PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

We mqy have to bring in forced isolation on those recently returned from spain or italy.

About three weeks late for that.

Funsterdelux · 17-03-2020 01:59PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

You know swine flu also started in the U.S., right?
In Kansas.. With western standards. Again, I agree with good hygiene practises being enforced everywhere.. But even that is no guarantee..

Western standards, well you have European standards and US standards. I wouldnt touch US meat in a Biosafety level 4 lab.

Mysteriouschic · 17-03-2020 02:00PM

I work in the airport was on check in today. Had a passenger dry cough towards me a few times didn't cover it.
As soon as he started coughing I gradually kept moving further back in the chair trying not to get close.
I wear gloves I threw them out after and went to wash my hands and used a anti bacterial wipe or disinfectant along the top.
Been worrying since in case that was corona and I might catch it.

Syncpolice · 17-03-2020 02:00PM

Numbers must be way off

From what I'm hearing round me loads of people have the virus and they're at home

SuperTortoise · 17-03-2020 02:00PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Massive redistribution and a supranational corporation tax regime.

So communism!

I know communism sounds great on paper but it does'nt work either.
I'll also add i don't have a solution either.

Away With The Fairies · 17-03-2020 02:01PM

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-scotland-51876080

A positive enough story, felt fine after a few days but continued to test positive. So anyone that feels fine after feeling a "cold/flu", stay the fcuk home.

CinemaGuy45 · 17-03-2020 02:01PM

completedit wrote: »

True. I just feel there is an element who are falling for the misery porn of it all. It’s serious, not entertainment,

Me terrified for elderly folks I am wondering how long I will keep my job for.

I am meant to be in Spain right now fully paid for all inclusive.

I have ASD we tend to have a hyper focus on things and this is all I can focus on right now I can not bring myself to enjoy anything right now.

I am glued to this thread but I am not enjoying it and I very much doubt many are.

chooseusername · 17-03-2020 02:02PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

I just went for a run, on the street a guy wearing a face mask with three obviously rabid dogs on leases crossed the street away from me and the direction is was coming from !! I wanted to grab him and force him to stay on my side of the street I was that offended that he was protecting himself from me with three clearly rabid dogs !!

How do you know they were rabid?
how do you know they were on lease? I didn't know you could lease dogs.
and maybe he was protecting you from his "rabid" dogs by crossing over.

Earthhorse · 17-03-2020 02:02PM

Wibbs wrote: »

I'll lay bets the mental health of the countries affected will go up, not down. This has been shown during other crisises, war, famine, nasty regimes. It seems when people have something to actually focus on worrying about they feel less depressed over time. Extended periods of comfort seem to leave us more vulnerable to mental health issues.

Almost akin to the body's immune system(bear with me..). When the body is kept away from germs because of over sterilisation of the environment allergies tend to go up. As if the immune system needs to fight something. I'd be of the opinion that mental health is similar. If we live "sterilised" mental lives our mind's "immune system" needing to fight something will cause an "allergic reaction" in the form of some mental health issues. Put it another way: In teh west we have never had so many therapies and avenues and acceptance of mental health issues, yet the rate of mental health issues has gone steadily up(though suicide is coming down from a 90's peak IIRC). That's very much at odds with every other health issue where there are more effective therapies and therapists and the expected result is the rate of illness goes down and cures go up.

The real mental health issues, I think, will be in the aftermath depending on how severely it hits us.

There could be a huge portion of the population in mourning and angry, a huge number of health care workers exhausted and traumatised and a global recession the likes of which we've never seen before. Let's hope such adversity brings out the best in us; so far for most of us it seems to have.

RebelButtMunch · 17-03-2020 02:03PM

Mysteriouschic wrote: »

I work in the airport was on check in today. Had a passenger dry cough towards me a few times didn't cover it.
As soon as he started coughing I gradually kept moving further back in the chair trying not to get close.
I wear gloves I threw them out after and went to wash my hands and used a anti bacterial wipe or disinfectant along the top.
Been worrying since in case that was corona and I might catch it.

There's a fair chance we'll all get it at some stage. Just not all at the same time

Hobgoblin11 · 17-03-2020 02:03PM

Mysteriouschic wrote: »

I work in the airport was on check in today. Had a passenger dry cough towards me a few times didn't cover it.
As soon as he started coughing I gradually kept moving further back in the chair trying not to get close.
I wear gloves I threw them out after and went to wash my hands and used a anti bacterial wipe or disinfectant along the top.
Been worrying since in case that was corona and I might catch it.

Don’t worry he was probably just annoyed at being fisted for having left his watch on in the body scanner

PCeeeee · 17-03-2020 02:03PM

pH wrote: »

Because it's complicated and nuanced, and sadly not everyone is capable of understanding it.

There are 2 very different approaches, and both involve 'reducing the spread' so that's irrelevant.

A) Mitigation
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing) to a level where the health service can cope but don't attempt to eradicate the disease (Original UK proposal/current Dutch position) Keep this up for a few 'tough' months until the population has enough 'herd immunity' so the disease no longer has epidemic potential.

Suppression
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing+ much more .. up as far as complete lockdown like Italy) to a level where the the spread of the disease is reversed and controlled at zero (or very low levels) South Korea have done this, and it is currently Ireland's and the UK's official policy (But not the Netherlands)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-we-wont-impose-national-lockdown-coronavirus-covid19/

As you can see both approaches reduce the spread, but are very very different.

Yeah sorry pH, I don't get it.

At worst if Suppresion fails then you achieve some level of Mitigation.

The question I would have if what is the endgame with Supression, It surely isn't an indefinte plan? I hate the term Herd Iimmunity but barring a vaccine what's next?

RandomName2 · 17-03-2020 02:04PM

China is imposing 2 week quarantine for people coming into China.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/17/china-reports-just-1-new-domestic-virus-case-20-more-imported.html

If only the rest of the world had done this back in January in relation to people coming from China. Only 1 new domestic case in China today.

I see sheep · 17-03-2020 02:04PM

Finally going into lock-down in UK.
Not many cases in some places yet though.

Loafing Oaf · 17-03-2020 02:04PM

pH wrote: »

) Suppression
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing+ much more .. up as far as complete lockdown like Italy) to a level where the the spread of the disease is reversed and controlled at zero (or very low levels)

But do those pursuing mitigation explicitly think this would be a bad thing?:eek: Or are they also targeting this as a best-case scenario but accepting it's unlikely to happen and looking to achieve mitigation as the next best thing?

is_that_so · 17-03-2020 02:05PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

This did not happen.

If you are nervous around dogs it probably did.

Akrasia · 17-03-2020 02:05PM

Wibbs wrote: »

It isn't but it kicked off in Kansas before current farming practices were in play. I'd point the finger at current US battery farming practices too. Not just in pigs, but pigs are a very dodgy reservoir for animal/human viral jumps. If I had my way I'd remove pork from the world menu. However mixing pigs with birds.. That's a grenade with an unknown fuse time and the pin out.

Ah jayses, who would want to live in a world without rashers and Bacon?

threeball · 17-03-2020 02:05PM

Syncpolice wrote: »

Numbers must be way off

From what I'm hearing round me loads of people have the virus and they're at home

Thats the thing. People see 200 cases and say oh 200 people have caught it. In reality 1000 have caught it but 800 did nothing about it because it was mild and there is another few thousand who came in to contact with it but it didn't affect them. Italy has 18000 cases but there could be 100sof thousands who have seen it come and go.

Loafing Oaf · 17-03-2020 02:06PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

China is imposing 2 week quarantine for people coming into China.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/17/china-reports-just-1-new-domestic-virus-case-20-more-imported.html

If only the rest of the world had done this back in January in relation to people coming from China. Only 1 new domestic case in China today.

Or more pertinently forus if the rest of Europe had done it a bit later for people coming from Italy...

Pablo Escobar · 17-03-2020 02:06PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

*Joe Duffy voice: "Ah right yeh"*

You better contact the government and have them amend the official figure without delay.

The truth is there’s huge backlogs in testing. I personally know somebody waiting on a call for a time since yesterday morning. The call hasn’t come yet. We know that a significant portion of these are likely to test positive, so it’s logical to assume that there are a lot of people at home with this.

Funsterdelux · 17-03-2020 02:06PM

Mysteriouschic wrote: »

I work in the airport was on check in today. Had a passenger dry cough towards me a few times didn't cover it.
As soon as he started coughing I gradually kept moving further back in the chair trying not to get close.
I wear gloves I threw them out after and went to wash my hands and used a anti bacterial wipe or disinfectant along the top.
Been worrying since in case that was corona and I might catch it.

You should be behknd screens at this stage and at the best of times, shops are doing it.

Gooey Looey · 17-03-2020 02:06PM

Just found out my sister has been visiting my parents in their late 60s with her 3 children every day while we are supposed to be social distancing. My mother is a heavy smoker, Dad is a chronic asthmatic and my brother who is also a chronic asthmatic lives there. We fell out when I told her she's an idiot.

Hobgoblin11 · 17-03-2020 02:07PM

chooseusername wrote: »

How do you know they were rabid?
how do you know they were on lease? I didn't know you could lease dogs.
and maybe he was protecting you from his "rabid" dogs by crossing over.

Just saying I was disgusted

Away With The Fairies · 17-03-2020 02:07PM

RandomName2 wrote: »

China is imposing 2 week quarantine for people coming into China.

https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/17/china-reports-just-1-new-domestic-virus-case-20-more-imported.html

If only the rest of the world had done this back in January in relation to people coming from China. Only 1 new domestic case in China today.

How will Ireland deal with quarantine people flying into the country? "go home and self-isolate". There should be a dedicated place for quarantine.

Wombatman · 17-03-2020 02:07PM

pH wrote: »

Because it's complicated and nuanced, and sadly not everyone is capable of understanding it.

There are 2 very different approaches, and both involve 'reducing the spread' so that's irrelevant.

A) Mitigation
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing) to a level where the health service can cope but don't attempt to eradicate the disease (Original UK proposal/current Dutch position) Keep this up for a few 'tough' months until the population has enough 'herd immunity' so the disease no longer has epidemic potential.

Suppression
Reduce the spread (by closing schools/social distancing+ much more .. up as far as complete lockdown like Italy) to a level where the the spread of the disease is reversed and controlled at zero (or very low levels) South Korea have done this, and it is currently Ireland's and the UK's official policy (But not the Netherlands)
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-we-wont-impose-national-lockdown-coronavirus-covid19/

As you can see both approaches reduce the spread, but are very very different.

This is what you posted.

pH wrote: »

Closing schools has nothing to do with the 'flatten the curve' policy the Dutch are following - the measures you mention are designed to mitigate the spread not halt it.

The Dutch have closed schools. If it has nothing to do with their policy why are they doing it?

What are the Dutch doing that is different from our approach?

joe40 · 17-03-2020 02:07PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

*Joe Duffy voice: "Ah right yeh..."*

You better contact the government and have them amend the official figure without delay.

That is the expectation in the short term, many people will get the virus but with only minor symptoms. Just treat with self isolation at home.

elperello · 17-03-2020 02:07PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Me terrified for elderly folks I am wondering how long I will keep my job for.

I am meant to be in Spain right now fully paid for all inclusive.

I have ASD we tend to have a hyper focus on things and this is all I can focus on right now I can not bring myself to enjoy anything right now.

I am glued to this thread but I am not enjoying it and I very much doubt many are.

You could note the thread page number and go out for a walk in the fresh air.

When you come back in you can take up where you left off or go with the flow on the current page then.

By later in the week if the forecast is right you will be able to sit in a sunny sheltered spot, close your eyes and imagine Spain.

Take care.

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP