CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP

Quantum Erasure · 17-03-2020 04:13AM

Xertz wrote: »

Again though you’re talking about a country that experienced SARS. We didn’t and none of Europe or the US did.

Maybe we’ll be more aware like they were in the future but, for now we are where we are based on the understanding we had at the time.

surely we should have been taking cues from them, especially when things started taking off in Italy.

Date, cases, and deaths for Italy, the week before the first case in NI on the 27th
...
2020-02-21 20(+567%) 1(n.a.)
2020-02-22 79(+295%) 2(+1)
2020-02-23 150(+90%) 3(+1)
2020-02-24 227(+51%) 6(+3)
2020-02-25 320(+41%) 10(+4)
2020-02-26 445(+39%) 12(+2)
2020-02-27 650(+46%) 17(+5)

Rob A. Bank · 17-03-2020 04:14AM

Xertz wrote: »

Again though you’re talking about a country that experienced SARS. We didn’t and none of Europe or the US did.

Maybe we’ll be more aware like they were in the future but, for now we are where we are based on the understanding we had at the time.

The Foot and Mouth virus spreads by airborne (aerosol) transmission and can easily spread for several kilometers away, far more than the puny 2 meter droplet transmission of Covid-19.

We managed to keep that off the island during the 2001 epidemic when Britain was burning piles of dead cattle.

The Army was on the border and at ports about 3 weeks before we had our first case.

The lesson of early radical containment was ignored this time... sadly.

Raconteuse · 17-03-2020 04:14AM

Re the ibuprofen scaremongering - and it really was scary for people who can't take paracetamol - the WhatsApp purporting to be from Cork UH was obviously tripe but there was an article in The Guardian about French research concluding it could aggravate the virus.

My pharmacist assured anyway that it's perfectly fine to take ibuprofen if sick with covid-19. She was raging over the rumour. If someone needed it and didn't take it because of this rubbish, their fever could really spike.

It can be dicey for those with asthma (this is well established already) but otherwise it's perfectly fine.

dwayneshintzy · 17-03-2020 04:15AM

Hong Kong have just announced that arrivals from all countries will now require mandatory quarantine, as 50 of the 57 new cases over the past two weeks have been imported; https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3075491/coronavirus-hong-kong-quarantine-arrivals-all-foreign

fritzelly · 17-03-2020 04:24AM

Raconteuse wrote: »

Re the ibuprofen scaremongering - and it really was scary for people who can't take paracetamol - the WhatsApp purporting to be from Cork UH was obviously tripe but there was an article in The Guardian about French research concluding it could aggravate the virus.

My pharmacist assured anyway that it's perfectly fine to take ibuprofen if sick with covid-19. She was raging over the rumour. If someone needed it and didn't take it because of this rubbish, their fever could really spike.

It can be dicey for those with asthma (this is well established already) but otherwise it's perfectly fine.

If you have the virus and asthma you should contact the doctor immediately no matter what your pharmacist purportedly said - the situation is ever changing and what's true today could be bad tomorrow

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 17-03-2020 04:25AM

Xertz wrote: »

Again though you’re talking about a country that experienced SARS. We didn’t and none of Europe or the US did.

Maybe we’ll be more aware like they were in the future but, for now we are where we are based on the understanding we had at the time.

But lots of people were warning us, and telling us what we needed to do!

Even late in the day, there was still very effective things we could do... not let 10,000 punters go to Cheltenham in the middle of this crisis. Quarantine and test them when they came back, same with the 20,000 returning from Spain!

But we ignored this kind of advice. Our government has been doing reasonably well, but not well enough compared with other nations. We needed to be more aggressive and proactive. We needed to attack this thing like many Asian nations did, but we're just far too laid back as nation... real lack of urgency, and I fear we're now going to suffer the consequences of that inaction just like other EU nations!

Raconteuse · 17-03-2020 04:29AM

The pharmacist definitely did say it in relation to people who don't have asthma. And as i said though, it's different for people with asthma.

This is only to let people know about the ibuprofen scaremongering if they do not have asthma and need to take something for a high temperature. As I can't take paracetamol so I was genuinely a bit worried.

It's not a call to be complacent about informing a medical professional/getting tested/following official protocol of course.

OneEightSeven · 17-03-2020 04:32AM

Figured out how to make these tables sortable.

Country | Median Age |Cases | Deaths | Case Fatality Rate
Italy |45.5 | 27,980 | 2,158 | 7.71%
Iran |30.3 | 14,991 | 853 | 5.69%
China |37.4| 80,860 | 3,199 | 3.97%
World | 30.4 | 182,603 | 7,171 | 3.92%
Spain |42.7 | 9,942 | 342 | 3.43%
UK | 40.5 | 1,543 | 55 | 3.56%
France |41.4| 6,633 | 148 | 2.23%
USA| 38.1 | 4,706 | 91 | 1.93%
Netherlands | 42.6 | 1,413 | 24 | 1.69%
Ireland | 36.8 | 223 | 2 | 0.89%
South Korea | 41.8 | 8,320 | 81 | 0.97%
Switzerland | 42.4 | 2,353 | 19 | 0.80%
Sweden | 41.2 | 1,121 | 7 | 0.62%
Norway | 39.2 | 1,348 | 3 | 0.22%
Germany | 47.1 | 7,272 | 17 | 0.23%
Belgium | 41.4 | 1,058 | 10 | 0.94%
Austria | 44.0 | 1,018 | 3 | 0.29%

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 17-03-2020 04:32AM

Raconteuse wrote: »

Re the ibuprofen scaremongering - and it really was scary for people who can't take paracetamol - the WhatsApp purporting to be from Cork UH was obviously tripe but there was an article in The Guardian about French research concluding it could aggravate the virus.

My pharmacist assured anyway that it's perfectly fine to take ibuprofen if sick with covid-19. She was raging over the rumour. If someone needed it and didn't take it because of this rubbish, their fever could really spike.

It can be dicey for those with asthma (this is well established already) but otherwise it's perfectly fine.

There are plenty of medically trained people, who are saying the opposite... so I guess it's up to everyone to decide for themselves really.

Is your pharmacist any more qualified to speak than the French doctor in the guardian article?

el diablo · 17-03-2020 04:33AM

This video's from October 2019. Pandemic or PLANdemic?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AoLw-Q8X174

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 17-03-2020 04:33AM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

But lots of people were warning us, and telling us what we needed to do!

Even late in the day, there was still very effective things we could do... not let 10,000 punters go to Cheltenham in the middle of this crisis. Quarantine and test them when they came back, same with the 20,000 returning from Spain!

But we ignored this kind of advice. Our government has been doing reasonably well, but not well enough compared with other nations. We needed to be more aggressive and proactive. We needed to attack this thing like many Asian nations did, but we're just far too laid back as nation... real lack of urgency, and I fear we're now going to suffer the consequences of that inaction just like other EU nations!

It has honestly been like watching a Rube Goldberg machine, with each event setting off chain reactions that just popped another country off and they would handle it poorly, leading to the next.

The WHO seriously needs to look at the effectiveness and productivity of contact tracing in the way the HSE has been doing it. I got a fit of magnanimity today and decided I'd apply for the contact tracing position and donate the money to charity. But then I actually thought about it and at this point, it's actually a futile and pointless gesture, just like the thermometers in the airport. You may as well pick a random name in the phonebook and call them and tell them they came into contact with someone. Now that would be a public service*.

Tony said tonight that in order to effectively slow the spread, you have to contact 70-80% of contacts. But nobody in those four Trinity buildings was even given the heads up that those eight people were being tested until yesterday, when they were told that there were confirmed cases and they all had to eff off home to boggerland with it and give it to their elderly parents.

My brain actually explodes with the f*cking stupidity of the system. It falls at every hurdle and measures up to no scrutiny.

(*disclaimer - don't do that)

dummy_crusher · 17-03-2020 04:40AM

OneEightSeven wrote: »

Figured out how to make these tables sortable.

Country | Median Age |Cases | Deaths | Case Fatality Rate
Italy |45.5 | 27,980 | 2,158 | 7.71%
Iran |30.3 | 14,991 | 853 | 5.69%
China |37.4| 80,860 | 3,199 | 3.97%
World | 30.4 | 182,603 | 7,171 | 3.92%
Spain |42.7 | 9,942 | 342 | 3.43%
UK | 40.5 | 1,543 | 55 | 3.56%
France |41.4| 6,633 | 148 | 2.23%
USA| 38.1 | 4,706 | 91 | 1.93%
Netherlands | 42.6 | 1,413 | 24 | 1.69%
Ireland | 36.8 | 223 | 2 | 0.89%
South Korea | 41.8 | 8,320 | 81 | 0.97%
Switzerland | 42.4 | 2,353 | 19 | 0.80%
Sweden | 41.2 | 1,121 | 7 | 0.62%
Norway | 39.2 | 1,348 | 3 | 0.22%
Germany | 47.1 | 7,272 | 17 | 0.23%
Belgium | 41.4 | 1,058 | 10 | 0.94%
Austria | 44.0 | 1,018 | 3 | 0.29%

How'd you do that? Very nice, however, it doesn't like those commas.

Curlysue76 · 17-03-2020 04:46AM

Rjd2 wrote: »

Pet peeve in work,,,"I am dying of the flu" no dude you wouldn't be working if you had the flu.

You have a runny nose which is annoying but not the ****ing flu. :rolleyes:

I agree, you cough and people say ‘oh you’ve the flu’ no I have a cough. If I had the flu I’d be at home in bed.

Have had the flu twice in my life and I know the difference.

17-03-2020 04:48AM

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

It has honestly been like watching a Rube Goldberg machine, with each event setting off chain reactions that just popped another country off and they would handle it poorly, leading to the next.

The WHO seriously needs to look at the effectiveness and productivity of contact tracing in the way the HSE has been doing it. I got a fit of magnanimity today and decided I'd apply for the contact tracing position and donate the money to charity. But then I actually thought about it and at this point, it's actually a futile and pointless gesture, just like the thermometers in the airport. You may as well pick a random name in the phonebook and call them and tell them they came into contact with someone. Now that would be a public service*.

Tony said tonight that in order to effectively slow the spread, you have to contact 70-80% of contacts. But nobody in those four Trinity buildings was even given the heads up that those eight people were being tested until yesterday, when they were told that there were confirmed cases and they all had to eff off home to boggerland with it and give it to their elderly parents.

My brain actually explodes with the f*cking stupidity of the system. It falls at every hurdle and measures up to no scrutiny.

(*disclaimer - don't do that)

Thanks Ross O'Carroll Kelly for the input

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 17-03-2020 04:51AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Thanks Ross O'Carroll Kelly for the input

Well done on contributing nothing of value except to attack me personally. I'm just indicating how they are being sent from an urban centre and sprawl across the country, infecting thousands of places. I'm from the sticks ffs, hence I see that some of their towns would possibly have had a chance at being insulated from it. Not anymore.

By the way, how about you try and come up with a coherent thought about the situation instead of honing in on one word.

Woodsie1 · 17-03-2020 04:59AM

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

I'm just indicating how they are being sent from an urban centre and sprawl across the country, infecting thousands of places.

Thousands havent been affected,stop talking sh1te.

bb12 · 17-03-2020 04:59AM

An Ri rua wrote: »

The financial timebomb that had been exponentially increased since the 2008 crisis has now been lit. The levels of corporate and government debt are astounding. The fall in corporate revenue and follow-on tax receipts is the perfect storm.
If this plays out, it will be far worse than 2008.

you're assuming normal rules will apply after this. probably not. the financial system could be reset. nobody knows where this will go but no matter what life will continue on, babies will be born and new generations will begin to grow up behind us. remember after the spanish flu of 1918, the roaring 20s followed,

Heckler · 17-03-2020 05:05AM

bb12 wrote: »

you're assuming normal rules will apply after this. probably not. the financial system could be reset. nobody knows where this will go but no matter what life will continue on, babies will be born and new generations will begin to grow up behind us. remember after the spanish flu of 1918, the roaring 20s followed,

Calm down. Its not armaggedon. New generations ffs.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 17-03-2020 05:10AM

bb12 wrote: »

you're assuming normal rules will apply after this. probably not. the financial system could be reset. nobody knows where this will go but no matter what life will continue on, babies will be born and new generations will begin to grow up behind us. remember after the spanish flu of 1918, the roaring 20s followed,

Mad to think of that progression. It must have been like switching the world off and on again. Imagine the parties that'll be had after this.

I've been chatting to lots of different people with lots of different situations and one thing I found very common in people who lost their jobs yesterday was that none of them gave the tiniest sh!t. They were mostly just glad to be out of the firing line of this and many of them were really optimistic about the future.

"I'm sick of working for a living
I'm just ticking off the days till I die"

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Thousands havent been infected,stop talking sh1te.

17,000 students go to TCD and I have it on good authority one of them has slept with 16,994 of the rest.

But seriously. The first confirmed ski trip family lived in Glasnevin. Their GAA Club, secondary school and primary school are infected as far back as 29th Feb, 3 weeks ago. This is a community on a major student bus route to Trinity. There have been two and a half weeks of unfettered spread all over that college.

Lumen · 17-03-2020 05:12AM

Happy Paddy's Day!

I feel bad posting this, please don't shoot the messenger, I'm doing everything I can practically do to limit the spread within my limited realm of influence.

We're now at 223 confirmed cases, +32% over the previous day. Confirmed cases have been very consistently growing at x1.345/day, doubling three times a week. I don't have any evidence that this growth rate has been over-reported by a change in testing regime, it's possible but the numbers look too tidy for that, no spikes.

I ran Tomas Pueyo's model with Irish inputs and it produces 21,000 cases on the day of the first death, 11 March, assuming Tomas' average fatality rate of 0.87%. Unfortunately I think that is too high, because the earliest cases in Ireland will receive exceptional treatment.

Using 0.6% fatality rate I get 31,000 cases (infections) on 11 March.

The pub shutdown didn't happen until 15 March, so I think it's reasonable to expect the same horrific multiplier up to that point. Maybe notch it down to x1.3 per day. If the transmission rate has gone down we won't have seen it reflected in confirmed cases yet as the median time to symptoms is around 5 days, and people aren't generally being tested until they're symptomatic.

So that would have us at 90,000 cases on 15 March.

If 2.5% of those cases require ventilators (Tomas' stat), we are going to need over two thouand ventilators soon, just to deal with the cases as of 15 March. That's almost x10 the number we had before this started. I assume we can find the "beds" one way or another, and hope we will have enough staff, it's the ventilators that are going to be critical.

Extrapolating the numbers from 15 March is more difficult. There is a high degree of uncertainty with such a small number of deaths, but it's interesting that the second death (first doubling of deaths) occurred three days after the first, which isn't far off doubling every couple of days. There have been no reported deaths since 14 March, two days ago, and that's good news, but I fear that there's going to be trickle of deaths, turning into a steady stream, from as soon as today. (Tuesday).

How many true cases do we have right now? Worst case maybe 120-150k, if "now" includes the whole day. So that's up to 3% of the population.

I don't think we're destinated to lose 5% of the population to this thing. Whilst it looks superficially like Italy is still out of control, they didn't introduce the full lockdown until 11 March, and sure enough, there are signs of a new inflection point as daily new cases have stabilised at under 3,500 for the past three days.

Maybe if we lock EVERYTHING down now we can limit total cases to under 200,000, and deaths to under 10,000. That's 30 years of normal winter flu deaths.

But there's still time to isolate your oldies, as there's a very good chance they don't have it yet!

DYOR

Woodsie1 · 17-03-2020 05:15AM

Lyanna Some Gut wrote: »

I've been chatting to lots of different people with lots of different situations

Great effort in social distance there Walter!
Have a **** might get rid of your misery erection.

Monkeynut · 17-03-2020 05:15AM

For everyone with small kids.
Stick this on.

It may keep them amused

Heckler · 17-03-2020 05:25AM

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Great effort in social distance there Walter!
Have a **** might get rid of your misery erection.

The **** ! uncalled for.

spookwoman · 17-03-2020 05:27AM

fack i wish they would use number of new cases rather than a % increase when doing countries!

Woodsie1 · 17-03-2020 05:32AM

Heckler wrote: »

The **** ! uncalled for.

Too many posters getting over excited at the seriousness of the situation...sorry.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 17-03-2020 05:40AM

Woodsie1 wrote: »

Too many posters getting over excited at the seriousness of the situation...sorry.

Accusations of arousal got old early in the first thread. You're even admitting the situation is serious in your post. We may globally see 200,000+ confirmed cases tomorrow with 8,000 deaths. Every one of those was a person and almost none of their families got to say goodbye when they died.

But you're right, I suffer from hyper-arousal with a particular weakness for deadly viruses. How did you know. I'm away for that walk you suggested now to chat to all my friends.

kalkat2002 · 17-03-2020 06:31AM

Going to work to the office...we will see if they were able to setup the pc to work remotely...yes or not from.tomorrow I am the one to take care of kids at home
Happy st patrick's day

Away With The Fairies · 17-03-2020 07:07AM

Why are shops not doing social distancing? Everybody packed into the shop yesterday evening, I turned around at the door.

otnomart · 17-03-2020 07:08AM

Bob24 wrote: »

I’d say the Netherland will do a UK on this: after a few days they’ll realise it’s growing faster than the planned and that hospitals are overwhelmed, and they will change strategy.

Hope so.
Otherwise the Netherlands are a risk to the rest of the EU.

Soulsun · 17-03-2020 07:12AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Why are shops not doing social distancing? Everybody packed into the shop yesterday evening, I turned around at the door.

Noticed that myself. Maybe when the numbers ramp up they will be more aware.

CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) Read OP