CoVid-19 Part VIII - 292 cases ROI (2 deaths) 62 in NI (as of 17th March) *Read OP*

On the markets and economic impact side of this, I am optimistic. I just think it’s going to take a very radical solution to bring it about and I don’t think the 2008 IMF and ECB “medicine” (grinding internal deflation) will be the solution applied, simply because it’s impacted all western countries simultaneously and the big influential ones won’t accept that.

It’s one area where the Euro could prove to be hugely important as it’s a huge currency where the central bank and commercial banking systems may well generate money out of nowhere.

Can you imagine the pressure that would be piling on now if we were still using IEP?! Our purchasing power would disappear very rapidly.

The USD always had a massive advantage as it was a measure of intrinsic value with other currencies being tied to its value under the Bretton Woods system and when the US basically printed money in the 70s they were able to do so without massive inflation.

The Euro can just through huge scale and the fact it’s also a reference measure of value at this stage is able to do similar. So is China and to a degree maybe Japan. Anything smaller than that and you’re a midsized non reserve currency and if you print it will devalue rapidly.

There are an awful lot of smoke and mirrors in banking and the truly powerful currencies and nations (or blocs) can rewrite the rules of the game.

The the US and EU are also huge diverse markets that can operate largely self contained or they want. A huge % of their trade is with their own consumers. China is moving slowly that way with a growing consumer economy.

I’d the Eurozone & EU move in unison we could be rebuilt quite rapidly compared to 2008.

My sense it that you’ll see a huge fiscal move by the Fed and ECB, pulling out every central bank tool and trick in the book to magic this way.

The U.K. risks big problems as sterling has gone very wobbly.

I really do think though you’re looking at a history books type global fiscal change happening over the next 12 months to undo this mess.

My only concern is Trump in the middle of something that needs to be multilateral is going to be “interesting”. He’s always looking for advantage, never friendly partnership.

Again though you’re talking about a country that experienced SARS. We didn’t and none of Europe or the US did.

Maybe we’ll be more aware like they were in the future but, for now we are where we are based on the understanding we had at the time.