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Covid-XIX Part VI - 90 cases ROI (1 death) 29 in NI (as of 13 March) *Read OP*

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Comments

  • #3272
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Which ones aren't?

    Italy.

    China, Korea, Singapore also did what was necessary and came out the other side. Given there's a proven template to follow to beat the virus, the hysteria is unwarranted.


  • #3273
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,378 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    kaymin wrote: »
    89% of those currently infected have mild symptoms.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#recovered
    "Mild" is a self reported number. It means nothing. You want to take worldometers stats as the benchmark for mild? Ok, Let's do that.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

    Iran have reported 9000 cases as mild. Not a single critical case in Iran.
    They have closed 3313 of those mild cases.
    There has been 354 deaths, 11% of closed cases.

    Must be a few mild cases of death.


  • #3274
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    kaymin wrote: »
    Some countries are over reacting others aren't. Trump's announcement this evening is purely political. If he was serious about addressing the virus he would roll out free testing for it rather than expecting people to pay up to 2 or 3k to be tested. I'd have liked the Irish govt to shut down flights from Italy weeks ago but other than that I think they have found a proportionate approach.

    Other countries such as slovakia have closed all schools and universities despite having minimal cases and generally not many visitors from abroad. The public there is almost in a state of hysteria - complete over reaction led from the top.

    Yes and no.

    I think this crisis could, or should, be a test of the American healthcare model.

    Other countries can see what's happening and are taking early precautions so as to protect their health care systems too, which I think is rational.


  • #3275
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,631 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    I do believe the majority of people who get this will be fine. That's not to downplay the deaths. It's going to be devastating for a lot of people.

    Even more devastating are going to be the economic effects. I live in Vegas, its going to be decimated if it isnt brought under control sharpish. I've already seen reports of some hotels running at 9% occupancy. That's unheard of, it's usually pretty much 90%+ year round. Not sure what the future holds and that's scary


  • #3276
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    Mellor wrote: »
    "Mild" is a self reported number. It means nothing. You want to take worldometers stats as the benchmark for mild? Ok, Let's do that.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/

    Iran have reported 9000 cases as mild. Not a single critical case in Iran.
    They have closed 3313 of those mild cases.
    There has been 354 deaths, 11% of closed cases.

    Must be a few mild cases of death.

    It means nothing for Iran. Not all countries are like Iran.


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  • #3277
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Yes and no.

    I think this crisis could, or should, be a test of the American healthcare model.

    Other countries can see what's happening and are taking early precautions so as to protect their health care systems too, which I think is rational.

    The American healthcare model will fail miserably to cope with this virus. There's no safety net for those without health insurance and on the margins of society.


  • #3278
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Is the around 20% figure for critical going of confirmed cases or estimated total cases?

    Edit: Stupid question. It must be for confirmed or everyone confirmed would be critical.


  • #3279
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    kaymin wrote: »
    It means nothing for Iran. Not all countries are like Iran.

    What do you know about Iran?


  • #3280
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    kaymin wrote: »
    Italy.

    China, Korea, Singapore also did what was necessary and came out the other side. Given there's a proven template to follow to beat the virus, the hysteria is unwarranted.

    Just curious, what do you think will happen once these countries loosen up their restrictions and attempt to go back to normal everyday life?

    I don't disagree with you btw, that there are drastic measures we can take to curtail this outbreak... but the real question is just how permanent or temporary these measures actually are?

    China, for example, could very easily have another massive wave of this outbreak if they go back to normal protocols. It could be like removing flood defences, before the flood waters have receded... you would be back at square one yet again!


  • #3281
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Is the around 20% figure for critical going of confirmed cases or estimated total cases?

    Edit: Stupid question. It must be for confirmed or everyone confirmed would be critical.

    11pc for serious or critical active cases, don't know about closed.

    I expect all of the numbers to go down, but could rise again.


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  • #3282
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    kaymin wrote: »
    Italy.

    China, Korea, Singapore also did what was necessary and came out the other side. Given there's a proven template to follow to beat the virus, the hysteria is unwarranted.


    What makes you think they are "out the other side"?


  • #3283
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    11pc for active cases, don't know about closed.

    And is there a good estimate of people infected but not enough for hospital? 5x? 10x?


  • #3284
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    And is there a good estimate of people infected but not enough for hospital? 5x? 10x?

    No idea. Anyone's guess.
    I'm just going by worldometers stats.


  • #3285
    sabat
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,896 ✭✭✭sabat


    kaymin wrote: »
    The American healthcare model will fail miserably to cope with this virus. There's no safety net for those without health insurance and on the margins of society.

    Fail? Or work exactly as intended? A culling of the old and poor is the market at its most efficient. When this virus gets into those Californian skid rows it's going to be a horror show.


  • #3286
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    sabat wrote: »
    Fail? Or work exactly as intended? A culling of the old and poor is the market at its most efficient. When this virus gets into those Californian skid rows it's going to be a horror show.

    For sure. Won't show in the stats though, who is going to assess cause of death in some homeless or poor person when the system is already under pressure. Just numbers, not people.


  • #3287
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


    Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

    Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

    Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

    Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

    It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.


  • #3288
    Mellor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,378 ✭✭✭✭Mellor


    kaymin wrote: »
    It means nothing for Iran. Not all countries are like Iran.
    No, not all countries are like Iran.
    But you're including Iranian mild cases in your post.


  • #3289
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


    Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

    Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

    Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

    Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

    It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

    Mostly wrong (all wrong)
    As you know.

    I'll leave it to others to tease apart each myth.


  • #3290
    IrishHomer
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,050 ✭✭✭IrishHomer


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


    Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

    Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

    Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

    Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

    It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

    Your wrong about children,

    They said last week young children are vulnerable because their immune system is not fully developed


  • #3291
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,631 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    Seems like some people on here are really wishing it gets bad in the US so they can moan about the healthcare system/Trump/Americans in general etc. Pathetic


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  • #3292
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    What makes you think they are "out the other side"?

    Each of those countries have had miniscule or no new cases in recent days and weeks.


  • #3293
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    ...
    Deleted User wrote: »
    I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


    Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

    They spread it. It can be spread during incubation.

    Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

    20% will require hospitalisation

    Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

    Yes

    Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

    Unknown. Evidence suggests so.

    It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

    Again unknown.

    I go back to a previous post - a virus needs a host. It won't be killing young people it needs as future incumbents


  • #3294
    old_aussie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,410 ✭✭✭old_aussie


    kaymin wrote: »
    If you say so. There's an election approaching in the US in case you hadn't noticed.

    Who gives a rats about an election in the US.

    Last thing on most peoples minds.


  • #3295
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    IrishHomer wrote: »
    Your wrong about children,

    They said last week young children are vulnerable because their immune system is not fully developed

    No one under the age of 9 has died from the virus


  • #3296
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,389 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    ceadaoin. wrote: »
    Seems like some people on here are really wishing it gets bad in the US so they can moan about the healthcare system/Trump/Americans in general etc.

    We don't have to hope, even if were so inclined.
    Evidence is enough, unfortunately.


  • #3297
    ceadaoin.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,631 ✭✭✭ceadaoin.


    IrishHomer wrote: »
    Your wrong about children,

    They said last week young children are vulnerable because their immune system is not fully developed

    When did they say that? I dont remember it. All I hear is how children arent affected which seems dubious to me


  • #3298
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    old_aussie wrote: »
    Who gives a rats about an election in the US.

    Last thing on most peoples minds.

    I was responding to Kermit's comment that countries wouldn't be taking the action they were taking unless it was deadly serious. The only thing on Trump's mind is getting re elected.


  • #3299
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I'm going to list some statements. Feel free to point out where I'm wrong.


    Most people who get it are asymptomatic, based on the cruise ship stats.

    Off the rest who are symptomatic, most people have mild symptoms and don't go to hospital.

    Of the people who are confirmed to have it in hospital, 11% go into critical condition.

    Of the confirmed who have it in hospital, it kills 0.9% of youngish adults who don't have underlying conditions.

    It doesn't kill children. It affects the elderly and people with underlying conditions far more.

    Some experts suggest that this virus is possibly 3-4x times more infectious than a common influenza virus. Because it's a new virus, nobody has any kind of natural defence against it.

    And also anything up to possibly 10x more deadly if you contract it... based on the very early stats we are looking at.

    Hence why this is now classified as a pandemic.

    How many countries declare a national emergency, when they are experiencing a particularly bad cold & flu season? It would be unheard of... this virus is spreading and killing much faster than any common flu virus.


  • #3300
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,109 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    kaymin wrote: »
    Each of those countries have had miniscule or no new cases in recent days and weeks.

    South Korea has 114 new cases so far today.

    ES32kdOWAAMcH7K?format=jpg&name=900x900

    On China - firstly they are full of sh!t with their numbers and the world knows it. They get away with it internally for obvious reasons.

    Secondly how would you like to be welded in to your apartment block as China did?

    Is that ok with you?

    You want these measures, right? Because they work, correct?


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  • #3301
    kaymin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,551 ✭✭✭kaymin


    Mellor wrote: »
    No, not all countries are like Iran.
    But you're including Iranian mild cases in your post.

    Feel free to carve out the Iranian numbers. Doesn't change the stats quoted significantly.


This discussion has been closed.
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