Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

Beasty · 11-03-2020 10:52AM

tillyfilly wrote: »

I'm in the office at work and some people are clearly sick,should I start wearing my back up mask and gloves?

Self isolate for the next 2 weeks. That includes no more internet - its viruses are way too dangerous

banie01 · 11-03-2020 10:52AM

Humberto Salazar wrote: »

Denmark, a similar population to us seeing an exponential rise now in cases, hundreds. Someone posted yesterday that Denmark's geography, as a peninsula, works against them with this but it can easily be those figures in a few days here.

If you are referring to my post on that particular country yesterday?
Go back, read it again and try harder to actually understand it.

If you are referring to a different post, I do apologize.

Fr_Dougal · 11-03-2020 10:52AM

RandomName2 wrote: »

We could assume hospitalization would be required for about 20% of those 1.9 million, and that 10% of those hospitalized would die.

These rates may be erroneous, but they are unlikely to be at this stage. With around 119,000 cases, 66,000 recoveries, and 4,200 deaths we should have ample data at this stage have a reasonable to make predictions, and predictions are useful.

For instance if those figures hold true, we would be looking at 380 thousand hospitalizations. I find it hard to believe that our health service would be in any state to cope with that.

Let’s look at the Chinese numbers.
90k cases out of a population of 1.4bn. That’s an infection rate of .006%

Apply this rate to Ireland and you would have:
32k cases out of a population of 5M.

20% of 32k is 6,400 hospitalisation. 10% death rate of 6.4k is 640 victims.

Of course these are VERY rough figures for a period of 3 months for China, but deaths and new cases have nearly stopped over there.

Steve F · 11-03-2020 10:52AM

Yurt! wrote: »

A vaccine by September would be best-case-scenario. Fingers crossed they can get it done and it's not rolled-out on a for-profit basis.

Just a quick word on vaccine
This won't be a magic bullet
the seasonal 'flu vaccine only gives 50-60% protection.
We will still need to take measures to "Push it back"

Yurt2 · 11-03-2020 10:53AM

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

We'll all be dead by then, according to some posters

I've been following the threads the whole way, and while there are some chicken-littles, I don't believe anyone has said that.

The worst case scenario is a grim one for the world economy, and most importantly the hundreds of thousands that would expire. You can cut it any way you like, the threat is there.

laurah591 · 11-03-2020 10:53AM

Drumpot wrote: »

I’m curious to know how much this will cost in the long run. You’d hope that it’s maybe 6 months disruption and even if there is a second wave in winter we would possibly be more prepared. With a potential vaccine possibly next summer let’s say this could really stagnate things for a year.

If most countries go through something similar then they all have a similar problem to resolve. I would of thought it reasonable to assume that , like 2008, most things will recover. Tourism in particular should surely bounce back as it’s not like this virus is unique to Ireland.

The only way it can cause as much or more damage as 2008 is if there is a contagion effect that causes other issues like lots of bank defaults (watch PCP finance possibly collapse) which is prob a bigger issue then what we will directly see. But on the flip side if everybody is suggesting the same perhaps there will be some sort of global reboot were debt isn’t necessarily written off but is remanaged (like they are sort of talking about doing)

Locally tourist & hospitality sectors will be hit significantly which will have significant knock on impacts on unemployment and bank defaults which i would be sure will place additional stress on the national balance sheet and this is before further investment in Health - housing etc. How will this be paid for

Internationally- market sentiment has been pointed towards the emergence of a global recesion for the last 12 months (inverse yield curve, technical recession recorded in Italy last year, borderline recession in Germany, slow down in Chinese economy coupled with serious debt issues, likewise India repoting slowing economy in 2019 and high debt levels in its public sector banks ); this virus is our 2020 Black Swan event and i do believe we wil see serious contagion.

RandomName2 · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Steve F wrote: »

Forgot to say on my other post.Vaccine's don't stop viruses in their tracks they reduce the number of people contracting them
The seasonal 'flu vaccine is only 50-60% effective
When they eventually release one for Covid19 we won't be completely "out of the woods" That's the huge mistake we could make in the aftermath of all this.

"We have a vaccine...it's all over"

That's a bridge I for one will be happy to cross. It will be a minor miracle if there's a vaccine within 5 months. Some analysts have said there will not be a vaccine in 2020. This is partially due to the bleating there was about the swine flu vaccine which was rushed out before all the kinks were knocked out of it.

Babooshka · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Yurt! wrote: »

The horse has bolted now, but for future outbreaks, perhaps the WHO should be funded by doner nations to have warehouses of essential virus-fighting materiel in-storage and a corps of trained nurses, virologists and doctors for rapid-response to initial outbreak in whatever country.

It's an expensive proposition, but it's preferable to what's unfolding now.

If nations can spend billions maintaining armed forces, they can do so for an international medical army to protect global health.

It's not in the commercial interest of any government to save the lives of the vulnerable. They won't tell you that though.

namloc1980 · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s look at the Chinese numbers.
90k cases out of a population of 1.4bn. That’s an infection rate of .006%

Apply this rate to Ireland and you would have:
32k cases out of a population of 5M.

20% of 32k is 6,400 hospitalisation. 10% death rate of 6.4k is 640 victims.

Of course these are VERY rough figures for a period of 3 months for China, but deaths and new cases have nearly stopped over there.

Those maths don't add up.

joe40 · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You can lockdown early and save many lives.
You can lockdown when the sh*t hits the fan after CV really takes hold.

Either way the economy tanks and a similar amount of jobs are lost.

This is not rocket science.

You don't have to do a total lockdown.

Closing schools for example will lead to few if any job losses if remote schooling is set up properly. Likewise those working from home generally.

When you lockdown, you still keep essential services running - in fact a lockdown helps keep these services running, as healthcare professionals are not swamped with people getting coronavirus because they went to school or went socialising.

The timing has to be right otherwise large numbers of people simply won't comply. Countries like Ireland police by compliance, not force.

megabomberman · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Cilldara_2000 wrote: »

Luke O'Neill on Pat Kenny programme there this morning. He seems to be more confident about a vaccine in September based on the number of teams working on it, how the all want to be first so there's a race between them, and the funding that has been available to them.

No doubt we can completely ignore this particular expert because the responsible experts are in scare-the-public-into-compliance mode. :rolleyes:

You can ignore Luke O'Neill, he's been woefully uninformed and complacent about the virus from the very start. Last night on Primetime he admitted that he was coming to the realisation that asymptomatic transmission might be occurring "if that turns out to be true". He is a complete disgrace.

Wibbs · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Sweet.Science wrote: »

Stupid question

I assume this cant be stopped until we find a vaccine?

and/or everybody or at least most people have caught it and survived(which is at least 95% of those infected). The problem with a vaccine is viruses mutate, hence why you need a new flu vaccine every year. The major problem is coronoviruses mutate more rapidly than flu, hence the common cold is an accepted yearly bug that does the rounds(though older folks tend to get fewer colds as repeated exposure does tend to offer some resistance). So you will have a vaccine for Covid-19 in due course, but when/if it mutates to get around it it'll likely come back unless they find a non mutating part to target and vaccinate against. We may have to add a variant of this virus to the yearly cold and flu season. Though if we're being optimistic viruses tend to become less fatal over time. It's better for the virus after all. It just wants to hijack our bodies to reproduce and the fewer hosts it kills the more it survives and reproduces. In many ways a virus like ebola is an evolutionary dead end and highly endangered on the way to extinction.

hawkwing · 11-03-2020 10:54AM

Wibbs wrote: »

They should. My local pharmacist is already. Bumped into her yesterday and she mentioned they were getting masks and hand sanitiser, but only one each per customer and existing customers have preference over randomers. She told me the last fortnight has been a bit daft, with the occasional individual being insane and asking to buy whole boxes of gloves, hand wash and masks and a couple had screaming fits when they were told no. She told them to head off and had to threaten ringing the Guards on them. Apparently the latest thing they've been hit by is people trying to stock up on paracetamol.

You are only allowed to buy one box of paracetamol:o

Funsterdelux · 11-03-2020 10:55AM

Maybe its time to sing:

Schools out for the summer!

Fr_Dougal · 11-03-2020 10:56AM

namloc1980 wrote: »

Those maths don't add up.

They usually don’t when you do them on the hop on your phones calculator! 😶

Wibbs · 11-03-2020 10:56AM

hawkwing wrote: »

You are only allowed to buy one box of paracetamol:o

Oh I know H, though I think pharmacists can sell more and that rule is more applied to ordinary shops? She was saying there was a regular stream of people wanting to buy boxes of the stuff and getting pissed off if they wouldn't sell them.

Funsterdelux · 11-03-2020 10:57AM

hawkwing wrote: »

You are only allowed to buy one box of paracetamol:o

Yep and you cannot buy a box of paracetomol and a bottle of calpol or anything else with paracetomol in it at thd same time.

Stevieluvsye · 11-03-2020 10:58AM

Yurt! wrote: »

I've been following the threads the whole way, and while there are some chicken-littles, I don't believe anyone has said that.

The worst case scenario is a grim one for the world economy, and most importantly the hundreds of thousands that would expire. You can cut it any way you like, the threat is there.

Ehhh my post was slightly tongue in cheek

laurah591 · 11-03-2020 10:59AM

otnomart wrote: »

Massive effort from Italy which yesterday reached 60000 tests.

The new fast test will also help with this:

Italian company DiaSorin completes studies for launch of rapid response molecular test for covid-19

https://uk.reuters.com/article/brief...-idUKFWN2B21CB

product expected to be launched in Europe CE marked and submitted to FDA under emergency use authorization process by end of March 2020
test to enable sample-to-answer results within 60 minutes compared to 5-7 hours currently necessary to report patient results

Very positive move and should significantly increase testing capacity

snowgal · 11-03-2020 10:59AM

Yurt! wrote: »

The horse has bolted now, .

I now HATE this expression!! I must have seen it over 50 times on here the past few weeks!!

NIMAN · 11-03-2020 10:59AM

Babooshka wrote: »

It's not in the commercial interest of any government to save the lives of the vulnerable. They won't tell you that though.

You a conspiracy nut too?:rolleyes:

Yeah, thats why the Gov spends millions upon millions treating older people every year.

Funsterdelux · 11-03-2020 10:59AM

NIMAN wrote: »

Ordinary soap is fine.
Don't get obsessed about hand sanitizers.

Even a cloth with milton/dettol etc would help. One could keep it in a lunchbox in their car and wipe hands accordingly.

enricoh · 11-03-2020 11:00AM

touts wrote: »

Agree.

And I was shocked at the disgraceful scenes from Cheltenham on the news last night. Tens of thousands of half pissed gamblers crammed in together, celebrating a few horses running around a field. Gamblers is probably the key word there. They are gambling with the health of the nation all for a bit of craic.

If many cases are traced back to people going to Cheltenham then it will be the end of the Horse Racing industry. It will be hard to justify pumping
tens of millions of taxpayers money into their hobby after they give the two fingers to the public. When cuts inevitably come to government budgets to compensate for the Coronavirus recession then there will be a public demand for the horse industry to be first on the chopping block.

Was watching the Tottenham match last night in Leipzig- disgraceful scenes, supporters drinking , crammed in together etc etc or is it just the nags you have a problem with!

Stevieluvsye · 11-03-2020 11:01AM

Pro-active!

Ukraine's capital Kiev will close schools and universities from tomorrow until the end of March to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, city mayor Vitali Klitschko said.

He said the city would also restrict mass events in the capital, including concerts and conferences. Cinemas and entertainment areas in shopping malls will also close.

Ukraine has so far reported one coronavirus case

DOCARCH · 11-03-2020 11:01AM

Case of community aquired virus confirmed at Waterford Hospital (RTE News).

tobefrank321 · 11-03-2020 11:01AM

joe40 wrote: »

The timing has to be right otherwise large numbers of people simply won't comply. Countries like Ireland police by compliance, not force.

Voluntary lockdown is really not an option unfortunately.

As for people not complying, we've seen hundreds if not thousands of people head off to Italy in the midst of coronavirus red zone, not giving a sh*t.

Do you think they are going to comply with a lockdown in any circumstances? no matter how you sugar coat it? Of course they won't.

Why should we have a small minority of fools who can't sit still for too long dictate policy for the vast majority? This is not the way to approach a lockdown.

The more you delay the more problems it creates. Heed the lessons of China and Italy. We're fast heading the way of both.

Mango Joe · 11-03-2020 11:02AM

Just a thought...and not coming from a place of hand-wringing hysteria.

But has there been much debate, discussion or consideration given to closing our Ports and Airports now while we have only 50 cases on our small Island which is so very effectively isolated from the rest of the World?

Looking at the journey Italy has been through which ultimately ended in locking down the entire Country of 60,000,000 people wouldn't it be better to act decisively now and avoid tens of thousands needless fatalities....

RandomName2 · 11-03-2020 11:03AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s look at the Chinese numbers.
90k cases out of a population of 1.4bn. That’s an infection rate of .006%

Apply this rate to Ireland and you would have:
32k cases out of a population of 5M.

Look with all due respect Dougal, China has halted the spread of the infection there. Unchecked you could expect 20% of the population to be infected. This is what happens with influenza in general, and was witnessed in the last number of pandemics (e.g. swine flu, Spanish flu). Of those that have been infected we have statistics into its likely fatality rate.

If 20% of China were infected one would expect to see about 2.7 million deaths.

Sure why do you think they have gone to so much trouble? China doesn't even care about its citizens in general.

martingriff · 11-03-2020 11:03AM

Boggles wrote: »

19 questions and not one question mark.

Really!!! It was not questions more statements to think over. I am sorry I offended you so so much O great one

owlbethere · 11-03-2020 11:03AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s look at the Chinese numbers.
90k cases out of a population of 1.4bn. That’s an infection rate of .006%

Apply this rate to Ireland and you would have:
32k cases out of a population of 5M.

20% of 32k is 6,400 hospitalisation. 10% death rate of 6.4k is 640 victims.

Of course these are VERY rough figures for a period of 3 months for China, but deaths and new cases have nearly stopped over there.

But they locked down to prevent the spread of this. Without the lockdown the figure would be much more.

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP