Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

facehugger99 · 09-03-2020 03:55PM

Heighway61 wrote: »

Next doors kids and my kids off to school this morning on the same school bus to the same school.

Was just talking to the neighbour over the fence just now and they were in Disney Paris for the weekend.

With the outbreak at Disneyland just announced would you keep your kids home from school?

Yes and burn the school bus too just to be on the safe side.

otnomart · 09-03-2020 03:55PM

flynnlives wrote: »

So in say 6 months time even if we get control of it, the virus will still be able to get here and elsewhere becasue of flights to and from the US. .

Agree.
If Ireland has not got it already from the US, as it was circulating there since mid Jan.

nelly17 · 09-03-2020 03:56PM

I spotted this video on Reddit last night and I think it captures the problem pretty well Its not about current infections its about the exponential growth and thats really where the problem lies

Strazdas · 09-03-2020 03:56PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Well the point I would make is every country where CV struck or even before it struck, the governments said we don't envisage a problem, we have modern healthcare, etc.

I remember a couple of months ago some people saying it could never spread in Ireland like it does in China because China still has poor health infrastructure unlike us.

Guess what, China have already turned the corner, and its us who have the poor health infrastructure.

China could build a hospital in 12 days. The same hospital would take 12 years here. You can't stick CV patients in with non CV patients in an ordinary hospital, as you spread it even more to vulnerable patients and also to staff, as we saw in Cork.

So yes, Italy, Iran, US, Spain, Ireland, UK, they never thought it would be as bad as China. This complacence has cost us big time. We didn't even bother to stop flights from red zones, because we thought we were largely immune to it. Madness.

But we simply have no idea how the virus will progress. In theory every single person on the planet could contract CV within two months but is that likely?

We cannot use Wuhan or Bologna as a template for anything. It's only an indicator of how the virus progresses among less than 120k people.

Drumpot · 09-03-2020 03:56PM

Strazdas wrote: »

You can claim that 3.5m will contract the virus within 4 weeks and nobody will be able to contradict you. It's open season for ever alarmist in the country.

How do you think this plays out?

When numbers get to a certain point, close schools and then proportionate action as things get worse?

This is not a loaded question (at least not intended to be one), I appreciate you don’t think figures will get too high but do you think it’s because they will eventually take steps needed to stop the spread or the disease just blows itself out for some reason?

dan786 · 09-03-2020 03:57PM

Saudi Arabia suspends travel to Oman, France, Germany, Turkey and Spain for citizens and residents due to the coronavirus, according to the state news agency

optogirl · 09-03-2020 03:57PM

fr336 wrote: »

If schools close maybe parents could look after their children rather than palming them off to at risk grandparents.

tobefrank321 · 09-03-2020 03:57PM

Heighway61 wrote: »

Next doors kids and my kids off to school this morning on the same school bus to the same school.

Was just talking to the neighbour over the fence just now and they were in Disney Paris for the weekend.

With the outbreak at Disneyland just announced would you keep your kids home from school?

Only if there was a cluster of cases in Disneyland Paris. Clusters increase the odds of it spreading more widely.

Much of this is about odds and probability.

1 case - low probability of spread to others - likelihood of only 2-3 other people being directly infected. Your kids would be safe enough.

10 cases - the probability of spread goes up hugely and its now a case of at least 25 other people being potentially infected.

So wait to see if there were more cases in Disneyland before deciding.

morebarn · 09-03-2020 03:57PM

Cuckoo7 wrote: »

There have been cases reported of children as young as 4 (that I recall) showing symptoms.

It seems like children are less likely to be infected.
But I read that a 5month old infant and mother are among today’s confirmed cases in Murcia,Spain.

D9Male · 09-03-2020 03:58PM

I think we need to be a little bit realistic about the death rates.

The oft-quoted death rate of 3.4% is complicated by the fact that it is almost certain that there have been some people with the virus that won't be reported, mainly because there symptoms weren't deemed extreme enough to get tested.

It is likely that the death rate will be closer to 1%, which is still very high compared to 'flu and when coupled with how contagious Covid-19 is, we can see why it is such a problem.

This article below is a few days old, but it explains why this situation is so grave, with comparisons with other epidemics.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-05/how-bad-is-the-coronavirus-let-s-compare-with-sars-ebola-flu

riclad · 09-03-2020 03:58PM

I Think we should ban all travellers from china and italy .
I do,nt think anyone is being checked in dublin airport .
In china they check everyone who goes into a airport or a bus terminal,
they can point a device at you and tell if you have a high temperature.
I Think we should cancel all sports events and maybe even consider cancel st patricks day events .
We have half the recommended medical staff and facilitys that countrys like italy have .
If 500 people had it i think our health system would be overloaded .
We have only a small no of hospital bed,s that could be used for isolating patients .
Most of the people who have it in ireland got it in italy and are now back
in ireland .
i Think all hospitals should ban visitors for the next 2 months to reduce the chance of it spreading to patients or medical staff.

ITman88 · 09-03-2020 03:58PM

circadian wrote: »

If you need any more proof that he doesn't care about citizens and only the stock market.

He cares about the economy, which is a critical component of modern life. If the economy tanks, which it looks like it will, this virus will be irrelevant very quick.

Drumpot · 09-03-2020 03:59PM

morebarn wrote: »

It seems like children are less likely to be infected.
But I read that a 5month old infant and mother are among today’s confirmed cases in Murcia,Spain.

I’d be interested to know how many kids have actually been tested. If they are unlikely to die and unlikely to show bad symptoms, then surely very few have been tested outside of China (if tests aren’t easy to come by and held for severe cases)

New Home · 09-03-2020 03:59PM

ITman88 wrote: »

He cares about the economy, which is a critical component of modern life. If the economy tanks, which it looks like it will, this virus will be irrelevant very quick.

And vice-versa.

stockshares · 09-03-2020 03:59PM

stockshares wrote: »

To put things in perspective.

From Worldometers website

CLOSED CASES
66,581

Cases which had an outcome:
62,695 (94%) Recovered / Discharged

3,886 (6%)Dead

So up to now there is a 6% chance of death if you catch it.

However the chart below shows how many of the current cases have recovered in each country. As you can see most of China's cases recovered but Italy is struggling to recover people.

58000 of 8000 recovered in China
622 of 7000+ recovered in Italy.

Important to catch it quickly so that hospitals font get overwhelmed.

Strazdas · 09-03-2020 04:00PM

Drumpot wrote: »

How do you think this plays out?

When numbers get to a certain point, close schools and then proportionate action as things get worse?

This is not a loaded question (at least not intended to be one), I appreciate you don’t think figures will get too high but do you think it’s because they will eventually take steps needed to stop the spread or the disease just blows itself out for some reason?

Yes to the latter. Flu viruses tend to escalate rapidly but also tend to go into decline rapidly as well - they run out of suitable new hosts to infect or prevailing conditions begin to turn against them.

Ipso · 09-03-2020 04:00PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

It's interesting, but population density must be a factor too ?

Yeah, the city of Wuhan has more than double the population of Ireland, then again how dense is the population in the Lombardi region?

indough · 09-03-2020 04:00PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Overall deaths across the planet are less than 4000. It's way too soon to be making projections of hundreds of thousands or millions of fatalities. The virus could go into decline long before that ever happens.

If it does go into decline it will be due to actions taken based on those projections.

Boggles · 09-03-2020 04:01PM

ITman88 wrote: »

He cares about the economy, which is a critical component of modern life. If the economy tanks, which it looks like it will, this virus will be irrelevant very quick.

He couldn't give a shít about the economy or anyone else for that matter.

The only thing he had was the economy was doing well and that serves an incumbent Presidential well in an election year.

Again, Donald cares about no one but Donald.

The Virus is a Democrat Hoax.

The dotard should be sectioned.

Cuckoo7 · 09-03-2020 04:01PM

morebarn wrote: »

It seems like children are less likely to be infected.
But I read that a 5month old infant and mother are among today’s confirmed cases in Murcia,Spain.

I don’t know if we have enough data to be able to say if children are less likely to get it.
We do know the ones who get it show less severe symptoms than adults but no more at this point in time.

thomas 123 · 09-03-2020 04:01PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1237027356314869761?s=21

Oh thank god.

I mean we where saying the same not so long ago, I’m sure his tune will change by the end of the day. He’s trying to stop the US going into recession - take a look at the stock market.

auspicious · 09-03-2020 04:01PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

in today's news anyone caught leaving the lock-down zones in Italy will face prison.

One restaurateur was fined 2k for not creating enough space between dining tables. I wonder what type of public health directive was issued prior?

YFlyer · 09-03-2020 04:02PM

Pubs been closed on Good Friday.

BigMo1 · 09-03-2020 04:02PM

Is there any chance of warmer temperatures helping with containing this or is that a myth?

gmisk · 09-03-2020 04:02PM

Mind the Luas wrote: »

Paddys day parade in Dublin cancelled.

Do you have a link? Right decision if true

Boggles · 09-03-2020 04:02PM

YFlyer wrote: »

Pubs been closed on Good Friday.

Ah Heyor, let's not be rash. Took us 100s of years to open them.

flynnlives · 09-03-2020 04:02PM

ITman88 wrote: »

He cares about the economy, which is a critical component of modern life. If the economy tanks, which it looks like it will, this virus will be irrelevant very quick.

yes but downplaying the seriousness and spreading lies only makes the problem worse. Only a bull**** artists look for the stort qucik fix.

That tweet about 500 cases from him aint gonna age well. You cant gaslight or bull**** your way with a pandemic.

spookwoman · 09-03-2020 04:03PM

https://twitter.com/Ray_Shah/status/1237006933208563719?s=20

YFlyer · 09-03-2020 04:03PM

BigMo1 wrote: »

Is there any chance of warmer temperatures helping with containing this or is that a myth?

Don't think we have enough hot days to blast away the virus.

Heighway61 · 09-03-2020 04:03PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Only if there was a cluster of cases in Disneyland Paris. Clusters increase the odds of it spreading more widely.

Much of this is about odds and probability.

1 case - low probability of spread to others - likelihood of only 2-3 other people being directly infected. Your kids would be safe enough.

10 cases - the probability of spread goes up hugely and its now a case of at least 25 other people being potentially infected.

So wait to see if there were more cases in Disneyland before deciding.

Thanks. I have to be extra careful with pre-existing conditions (cancer, colitis, heart block mainly, childhood asthma with occaisonal flares), percentage pushing near 100%.

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP