Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

donalh087 wrote: »

There are so many things I don't understand about the virus.

There have been 2 cases diagnosed in Cork. Both from people with pre-existing conditions who were in hospital for a while (12 days in one case) before being diagnosed with Covid.

The median time of incubation is 5 days. So anyone in contact with these people should already be showing symptoms.

Why is there not a huge cluster in Cork?

Testing is severely limited. 80% are mild so alot of those will just pass it off as the flu. Once the serious cases build up then it explodes . It can go under the radar for 3 weeks or so . The mortality rate is probably not that bad. Certainly with good medical care I think 1% is attainable .

Germany has 1,100 cases. 2 in critical care(pro active approach similar to SK). It could take a while for Ireland to have an outbreak due to the population. Maybe even 6 weeks or so. But once you do the problem is the doubling times of cases is between 4-6 days. Personally I dont think we are handling it terribly. The most important aspect according to Bruce Aylward is the mindset of the nation. I think most of the country are taking this seriously now. The only worry is the Government (mass gatherings) and it could still be too late

I woke up with a bit of a sore throat and runny nose this morning, it's nothing serious and definitely not covid 19

But it just shows how easy it is to catch something, I've been washing my hands so much these days and I still caught it.

1641 wrote: »

Incorrect. Your figure is only the amount of health expenditure funded directly from taxation (73% from the link you have posted). On top of that is "out-of pocket" expenditure (including payment for GP visits, 12%) and expenditure covered by private insurance (13%).

Yes , the public health spend in this country is average.
The out of pocket ( read: for profit ) is out of control at 7 billion.

Snow Garden wrote: »

The economist on the radio repeated that markets are crashing because they are overpriced and have been for some time.
For example, extrememly low growth in Germany for a year and the DAX was hitting all time records.
The virus was the trigger but everyone was expecting a downturn this year.
Another example, the Dow Jones still hasn't gone back to June 2019 levels.

Nothing to see here ... move along... everything is fine...

donalh087 wrote: »

There are so many things I don't understand about the virus.

There have been 2 cases diagnosed in Cork. Both from people with pre-existing conditions who were in hospital for a while (12 days in one case) before being diagnosed with Covid.

The median time of incubation is 5 days. So anyone in contact with these people should already be showing symptoms.

Why is there not a huge cluster in Cork?

If they are in hospital for 12 days because of other pre existing issues then maybe they only recently caught covid 19?

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

I woke up with a bit of a sore throat and runny nose this morning, it's nothing serious and definitely not covid 19

But it just shows how easy it is to catch something, I've been washing my hands so much these days and I still caught it.

Indeed it is.
how easy is it to absent mindedly touch a surface then touch your mouth,eyes,nose and not even realise...and that is why the WHO are saying we are all in this together.Your cold probably came from someone that isn't being as strict with their hygiene

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Oddly, this is the kind of thing people come up with because they think it won't affect them, they never seem to mention paying for water or having a proper property tax as these other countries have.

That is because people do not want to pay for anything themselves. They want all the services to be provided to them for free and then sit on their holes at home in front of their fcuking sixty inch TV and whinge about everything.

Fooking scabby cnuts.

thebaz wrote: »

South Korean new cases down to 165 - this is more good news, and yet not reported amidst the panic headlines.

I believe the statistics from South Korea will be the most acccurate as they are doing most testing.
I admit that the West will not be able to set the standards of South Korea, for various social, economic and infrastructure reasons.

But surely we should have some balance in media reports instead of drip feed panic inducing headlines.

The figure of 1.9m or 40% infected was probably deliberately leaked to the media to shock people into action. This is a good thing and hopefully it will result in decisive actions from authorities and individuals. I’m surprised, though, that the figure isn’t challenged more, based on what we’ve witnessed in other countries in the last few weeks. All of the models I’ve seen tend to use fixed infection rates which logically result in exponential growth in cases until a large proportion of the population is infected. In reality, infection rates are never fixed and can change drastically based on human reaction to the severity of the spread. This kind of human behaviour is not reflected in the models. The Chinese and the S Korean numbers show that appropriate actions can stop exponential growth very early on such that total infections won’t even come close to 1% of the population. I think (and sincerely hope) that if we endure drastic measures that curtail our mobility and perhaps hurt the economy for a short period the HSE figures will be shown to be out by an order of magnitude.

Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 9 March 2020



Number of daily cases continue to increase in Europe, as predicted by the models.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

wadacrack wrote: »

Testing is severely limited. 80% are mild so alot of those will just pass it off as the flu. Once the serious cases build up then it explodes . It can go under the radar for 3 weeks or so . The mortality rate is probably not that bad. Certainly with good medical care I think 1% is attainable .

Germany has 1,100 cases. 2 in critical care(pro active approach similar to SK). It could take a while for Ireland to have an outbreak due to the population. Maybe even 6 weeks or so. But once you do the problem is the doubling times of cases is between 4-6 days. Personally I dont think we are handling it terribly. The most important aspect according to Bruce Aylward is the mindset of the nation. I think most of the country are taking this seriously now. The only worry is the Government (mass gatherings) and it could still be too late

I read somewhere that Germany isn't actively reporting it's serious/critical numbers anymore? Might explain the very low number. They are doing well with 0 deaths so far though.

Personally I think the government are handling it terribly so far, we are more than likely to have an Italy type situation now (lower absolute numbers due to our lower population).

We should have closed all schools and universities from this morning, take a few weeks/months economic pain to slow the spread and prevent what I fear is now an inevitable cascade of cases going to land on our fragile health system. Western governments are thinking too short-term on this. Handling this badly is going to cause a deep deep recession, nevermind the human life casualties.

CASES DEATHS RECOVERED UNRESOLVED
111,332 3,879 62,488 44,965

Todays figures

It's really disappointing to reflect on what a failure "containment" has been. What containment measures did most European countries even take?
I think for a long time we will be looking back on this epidemic and wondering what could have been done to prevent getting to this stage.