Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

regedit wrote: »

I wonder if testing loses the purpose if the umbers increase significantly or do you move to the phase whereby you manage the patients symptomatically...

If numbers increase significantly (through community transmission) the next phase is "phase 2: delay" - You can read about this online by googling it. I'm on mobile the moment so I can't provide detailed links

It bears repeating that differences in the death rate between developed countries are probably more due to testing rates than any big disparity in medical care. South Korea has tested c.150,000 people now and has a low death rate of 0.6%. This is because many healthy people have been tested, some of whom had COVID without even knowing it. By contrast, the tiny amount of testing in the US, something like 2000, has focused on the ill and, not surprisingly, the death rate is much higher.

Ardillaun wrote: »

It bears repeating that differences in the death rate between developed countries are probably more due to testing rates than any big disparity in medical care. South Korea has tested c.150,000 people now and has a low death rate of 0.6%. This is because many healthy people have been tested, some of whom had COVID without even knowing it. By contrast, the tiny amount testing in the US, something like 2000, has focused on the ill and, not surprisingly, the death rate is much higher.

Yes - although Italy probably should be excluded from the above reasoning from now on as their healthcare system is now clearly not fully coping anymore.

Strazdas wrote: »

Flu viruses can often work like this : rapid growth, a peak but then a fall off in numbers again (there can be reasons why in particular strains that once a peak is reached, the virus itself finds it difficult to infect any further new patients....the tide starts to turn against it so to speak).

That requires a significant number of infections though. Swine flu managed to infect 20% of the world's population. The 1918 pandemic infected around 25%.

That's where that 20,000 death figure for Ireland that's floating around comes from. That supposes about 20% of the population getting infected with about a 2% death rate. Clearly this is something that should be avoided, if possible.

There's something else apropos the 1918 pandemic. There was a second wave of infections the following November, which was perhaps more deadly than the first. It is not entirely clear why that was the case.

saabsaab wrote: »

That's the hope but i wouldn't count on it. A virus after time and many replications may mutate and become less harmful.

Indeed it can but as we go into a warmer period you'd expect numbers to decline.

This thread could really do with a Reddit style of posting. With such a high rate of posting all the important information is getting lost in the thread!!
But it's still a very valuable place!

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Good response dude. If I knew my hospital was witholding figures. I would immediately go to the papers. This is a serious situation. If you are afraid, you can ask the person to contact me and I'll raise it to the appropriate authorities. This is serious business. I'm all about transparency.

I never said the hospital was withholding figures did I? I also said I dont believe that there is a cover up or anything sinister from the HSE, simply that there is a delay of a few days between positive result and press release.

On the cork cases , they are not saying where these people are from . The first guy who is in cuh I think it’s strange the day after this that Youghal Midleton and Cobh cancel the Patrick’s day parade ? Wonder if that means he’s from east cork ? Wish they would say where so that us people who have heath issues and bad immunity can stay away !!!

King_Joffery wrote: »

This thread could really do with a Reddit style of posting. With such a high rate of posting all the important information is getting lost in the thread!!
But it's still a very valuable place!

Not too much important stuff. People are linking in from elsewhere anyway. See the sticky at top of forum for important stuff.

Anyone claiming unreported confirmed cases (Eg- US2) is talking ****e. The daily reported positive cases by the HPSC accurately reflects all swabs taken, whether they were in the community or in hospital. There is no scenario where the HSE or individual hospitals are withholding figures.
There is absolutely a case that the published figures don't truly reflect the actual number of cases because testing isn't widespread enough, but that is a different assertion than the one which is being made by the likes of US2.

Deleted User wrote: »

Wait. A million chinese nationals go university in Australia. So 4% of the people resident in Australia are students from China?? How many people are in third level education over there?

According to Statistica It's 1.7 million in higher education and 2.5 million altogether: https://www.statista.com/statistics/430276/number-of-chinese-students-in-australia-by-education-sector/

But I now don't believe those figures are even close to reality, it looks like the figure is more like 189,000. In 2018 there were 1.3 million tertiary students, in Australia in total.

I don't know whether they get counted in the population stats. I imagine they would be excluded.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-04/coronavirus-scare-sees-chinese-students-miss-uniniversity/11929948

https://www.australianuniversities.com.au/directory/student-numbers/

With both cases in Cork, community based infection the area should be nearer to lock down for 2 weeks. This may help identify sources and limit spread.