Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP

spookwoman · 08-03-2020 4:01pm

From RTE tests take about 36 hours
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236606993567232002?s=20

Computer Science Student · 08-03-2020 4:01pm

It is thought at this stage the virus is beyond containment. In Dublin alone, it is widely speculated that the number could be as big as 500 right now and with many multitudes of people interacting so frequently, be it in pubs, restaurants, work, this number will indeed grow at a rate approaching the true growth exponent.

Hodors Appletart · 08-03-2020 4:01pm

UK and NL daily increases point to a doubling approx every 3-4 days. 30-35% per day

With that rate I'd expect Ireland to hit 35-40 by the middle of the week (island)

approx 1200 by the end of march

approx 12000 by easter

boege · 08-03-2020 4:02pm

If you want to see potential situation in Ireland then look at the Netherlands.

On the 2nd March they had about the same number of cases as Ireland (18).

Five days later they are at 265 cases.

ALL OF THE EVIDENCE is that proactive controls will reduce infection rates.

Do we wait until we are at 265 cases, or do we shut down everything from tomorrow?

Evidence from flu transmission shows that schools play a strong part in infection transmission.

The containment protocol the HSE/Govt are following is untested at the scale of infection we are now seeing all over the world. Once the virus gets a foothold there are very few countries seeing small increases in numbers of cases, which is what the current Govt/HSE are hoping for.

Personal responsibility is also key. An expert interviewed on C4 earlier today suggested that nations need to go on a war footing as it needs the same type of mentality to prevent transmission. Suggest this clip is compulsory reading.

http://https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcJDpV-igjs

08-03-2020 4:02pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is thought at this stage the virus is beyond containment. In Dublin alone, it is widely speculated that the number could be as big as 500 right now and with many multitudes of people interacting so frequently, be it in pubs, restaurants, work, this number will indeed grow at a rate approaching the true growth exponent.

What are you basing this on? Genuinely curious at this stage. If you had proof, it would actually be beneficial to be shared with the relevant authorities.

Computer Science Student · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

Deleted User wrote: »

What are you basing this on? Genuinely curious at this stage. If you had proof, it would actually be beneficial to be shared with the relevant authorities.

It is mostly on the ground speculation. It's important to not get too carried away. We need to try and be sensible with the situation.

r93kaey5p2izun · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

I am a close contact of someone who was told to self isolate because they were a close contact of a suspected case awaiting a test result. That result, which was thankfully negative, took 48 hours to be released.

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

spookwoman wrote: »

I know breaking their own guidelines. Don't what's going on, are those not showing ok to go back to work and they have 100 now in iso or is everyone still in iso

Only explanation is sheer desperation for staff (understaffed even before this).

The uk are pushing legistation for a avail of couple of million nhs volounteers (almost a war-time situation), so that they won't loose jobs if helping out for a couple of months, before going back to being teachers/retail/architects etc. when it's over.

Maybe HSE hope if they're gloved up enough, they won't pass on infections to (already) suspected cases.

stephenjmcd · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is thought at this stage the virus is beyond containment. In Dublin alone, it is widely speculated that the number could be as big as 500 right now and with many multitudes of people interacting so frequently, be it in pubs, restaurants, work, this number will indeed grow at a rate approaching the true growth exponent.

Thanks for another pointless post and another random number

Stheno · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is thought at this stage the virus is beyond containment. In Dublin alone, it is widely speculated that the number could be as big as 500 right now and with many multitudes of people interacting so frequently, be it in pubs, restaurants, work, this number will indeed grow at a rate approaching the true growth exponent.

Is that the voices in your head telling you this?

embraer170 · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

thebaz wrote: »

But for the initial month - Christmas to January , the virus would have been rampant cause they would have been unaware of it -

China took drastic measures (shutting down Wuhan) when it had 550 or so cases on 21/01.

Countless places in Europe are far beyond that, and still having ridiculous discussions about whether to shut down events.

Even the Italian lockdown is nothing compared to the Chinese measures.

05eaftqbrs9jlh · 08-03-2020 4:04pm

Pretzill wrote: »

I have a GP appointment tomorrow - (it's neccessary...otherwise I wouldn't go) Anyone think it would be rude to ring them from the carpark and ask they ring me back when the Doctor is ready for me? I'm going to try my best to limit my time in public now...at least until we get clear directives about this epidemic. There are some needed appointments to attend in the coming weeks but I'm going to take every preventative measure I can to limit contact with this...however, today I have a bad chest and a slight cough. I'm just hoping it's not already here...I mean how do any of us know we haven't been in contact with this already...how often do any of us catch a cold?

I'm getting fed up of being told not to panic and then on Sunday we hear projections of 1.9 million sufferers - Crisis, What Crisis?

South doc are already operating this policy, possibly GPs will follow suit. Would be nice if there was clear HSE guidance on this besides "if you've a cough just ring your GP". Might prevent groups who want to act UNILATERALLY.

This article speculates that news from China could be propaganda and we'll only see the effectiveness of the lockdown when people return to their normal routine. A "better safe than sorry" approach will certainly see our economy take a big hit but it will mitigate against the enormous fallout and loss of life currently predicted. We are about to enter a period of global depression, nobody is going to escape it. Let's try and ready ourselves by ensuring that we're not fighting each other about minutiae, being discerning about the news we read about the virus and help each other to stay well for as long as possible. It's looking likely now that over a million people in Ireland will not be able to avoid getting this.

There is a lot of flip-flopping about CUH workers. First, 100 of them were in self-isolation. Then they lifted the rules, allowing them to work if they weren't showing symptoms. Now they're being tested twice a day and being advised to follow infection prevention and control measures, for a virus where the level of infectivity is not yet clear.

https://jrnl.ie/5037676

US2 · 08-03-2020 4:05pm

spookwoman wrote: »

From RTE tests take about 36 hours
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236606993567232002?s=20

What was the HSE guy saying at the press conference the other day then that it takes a few hours, swab in by 10am results at lunchtime, swabs in by lunch time results by tea time is what he said?

banie01 · 08-03-2020 4:05pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is thought at this stage the virus is beyond containment. In Dublin alone, it is widely speculated that the number could be as big as 500 right now and with many multitudes of people interacting so frequently, be it in pubs, restaurants, work, this number will indeed grow at a rate approaching the true growth exponent.

By who? You have repeatedly posted random numbers with zero foundation.

I'd be happy to even see your own rationale, rather than a published source?

Something other than a gut feeling?

Trigger Happy · 08-03-2020 4:05pm

Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »

A quick look at the distribution maps show the Americas (N&S) are about to undergo huge upsurge in cases, perhaps doubling well before every 5 days.

Some Americans believe the corona virus is a Democrats hoax flamed by the liberal media.

Hard to see the US containing it with citizens that dumb.

Computer Science Student · 08-03-2020 4:05pm

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thanks for another pointless post and another random number

Try to not be nasty. While open discussion and even disagreement is fine, blatant abuse will not be tolerated.

Cilldara_2000 · 08-03-2020 4:06pm

Misinformation central here today.

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

"I had predicted 20,000 as the worst case scenario... (based off what the trajectory was two weeks ago)
...in a season we'd usually have 30,000 deaths from flu in Ireland. It could be 80,000-100,000 deaths."

Wrong he said 30,000 deaths in total per year.

Eliana Uptight Caterpillar wrote: »

Paul Reid refusing to comment on Tarik saying we need action to fight this. He said unilateral action is totally out of the equation and strong centralised health leadership will sort this. He says he sees a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way because the virus gets blown away by the wind and killed by UV rays but not many gigs taking place. He's delusional. He's talking now about Leo Varadkar leading us out of this.

He's saying that we have that many deaths in Ireland per year. He's saying that we could have 80-100,000 this year because of this virus.

Wrong. That was McConkey.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Anyone listening to RTE radio news?

They have a someone in the studio talking of 20,000 minimum to 120,000 maximum deaths depending on rates of infection (up to 80%) and fatality rate (mentioned up to 4%)

He didn’t say 20,000 minimum. He said it could be 20,000 or it could be as high as 80 to 100k.

You can listen back to verify: https://www.rte.ie/radio/

It’s near the start. Paul Reid first, then McConkey.

Strazdas wrote: »

He did add he thinks the St Patricks Festival should go ahead : he says he thinks outdoor events pose much less of a risk and indoor venues like the 3 Arena are far more problematic.

McConkey refused to say whether he thought it should go ahead or not. He said we should all row together and he used the analogy of the O’Donovan rowers pulling together. He then went on to say that being outside is not a big deal and he could see a lot of holidays on the Wild Atlantic Way. Outdoor events are different to indoor gigs etc. He said Paddy’s Day is what we are and we need to maintain social solidarity and community etc and Paddy’s Day is one way to do that.

Underground · 08-03-2020 4:06pm

The way things are going, and with the party line just a few days ago of "the risk of infection spreading through Ireland is low", I'm bleakly reminded of a certain South Park scene.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0AW4nSq0hAc

Away With The Fairies · 08-03-2020 4:06pm

spookwoman wrote: »

From RTE tests take about 36 hours
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1236606993567232002?s=20

Self isolate at home until test results are ready in 36 hours?? What then after 36 hours?

spookwoman · 08-03-2020 4:06pm

Ariah Happy Rooster wrote: »

Only explanation is sheer desperation for staff (understaffed even before this).

The uk are pushing legistation for a avail of couple of million nhs volounteers (almost a war-time situation), so that they won't loose jobs if helping out for a couple of months, before going back to being teachers/retail/architects etc. when it's over.

Maybe HSE hope if they're gloved up enough, they won't pass on infections to (already) suspected cases.

Seen stories about that before where they have people who are interested in working in the medical service and may not have the points etc. The help out with chatting to older patients etc. Good idea

stephenjmcd · 08-03-2020 4:07pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Try to not be nasty. While open discussion and even disagreement is fine, blatant abuse will not be tolerated.

How is that nasty.
You've constantly been pulling random numbers out and posting them here with no source

silver2020 · 08-03-2020 4:07pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Try to not be nasty. While open discussion and even disagreement is fine, blatant abuse will not be tolerated.

Blatant hysteria and utterly unfounded figures and information should not be tolerated

4068ac1elhodqr · 08-03-2020 4:08pm

boege wrote: »

The containment protocol the HSE/Govt are following is untested at the scale of infection we are now seeing all over the world

They've already resigned themselves to this:

The Health Service Executive has said that it cannot dispute projections that 1.9 million people in the Republic of Ireland may fall ill with coronavirus.

link Is the inability to close down workplaces etc simply to have less damage on those (already bailed out) banker*ankers, or stocks/shareholders who want to keep shop doors, and tourists arriving for a parade, no matter what happens to the simple people of the land as a result?

banie01 · 08-03-2020 4:08pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is mostly on the ground speculation. It's important to not get too carried away. We need to try and be sensible with the situation.

Who is doing the speculation and what is their health background?
Has bar stool lawyer graduated to bar stool epidemiologist or statistician?

spurious · 08-03-2020 4:08pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

It is mostly on the ground speculation. It's important to not get too carried away. We need to try and be sensible with the situation.

I 'speculate' it's 15 million in Cabra alone.

Away With The Fairies · 08-03-2020 4:09pm

Regarding exponential growth, wouldn't the virus get to everybody eventually?

Cilldara_2000 · 08-03-2020 4:09pm

Popoutman wrote: »

If it's doubling every 10 days (not backed up by the figures, but we'll give you the benefit of the doubt).
That puts things as:
40 cases March 18

80 cases March 28

160 cases April 7th

320 cases April 17th

640 cases April 27th

1,280 cases May 7th

2,560 cases May 17th

51,200 cases May 27th

102,400 cases June 8th

204,800 cases June 18th

409,600 cases June 28th

819,200 cases July 8th

1,638,400 cases July 18th.

It's still not good no matter what way you look at it. I'm not seeing any current reason that prevents the transmission rate from staying at the currently-known rate and not tapering off until a significant portion of the population is infected.

Did you have any rational and realistic reasons why you think things are going to be better than I had suggested above?

Why did you jump by a factor of 20 between May 17 and May 27?

juno10353 · 08-03-2020 4:09pm

US2 wrote: »

What was the HSE guy saying at the press conference the other day then that it takes a few hours, swab in by 10am results at lunchtime, swabs in by lunch time results by tea time is what he said?

Labs and hospitals need to be working 24/7 with round the clock shifts. Our hospitals build up backlogs overnight and at weekends. This is unacceptable at anytime, but particularly now.

ChikiChiki · 08-03-2020 4:09pm

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Self isolate at home until test results are ready in 36 hours?? What then after 36 hours?

As we have seen in other countries, people have been tested, been given the all clear only for it to pop up at a later stage and test positive.

Its a difficult virus.

banie01 · 08-03-2020 4:09pm

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Try to not be nasty. While open discussion and even disagreement is fine, blatant abuse will not be tolerated.

What are you going to do if blatant abuse occurs?

Double your random guess?

Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) *Read warnings in OP*

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Coronavirus Part V - 34 cases in ROI, 16 in NI (as of 10 March) Read warnings in OP