Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Whose panicking?

You are getting honesty here as far as I can see. There is no censure - nobody has said anything out of the ordinary.

I actually think boards has provided a good resource here and the information has been good overall.

No its been mostly bullsh!t from twitter, personal digs at the HSE, and ridculous speculation from yourself and many others. It does make for entertaining reading though.

MadYaker wrote: »

No its been mostly bullsh!t from twitter

Quotes please.

Line them up.

Bet you can't.

tillyfilly wrote: »

I've read reports from sufferers in affected regions of northern Italy that singing happy birthday to yourself twice while washing your hands has not prevented infection, does it need to be in English to work? Does Any body know if this actually works or is it a hoax?

no, you should be singing 'november rain' by guns and roses.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This. We develop an outbreak like Italy here and the country is done.

Simple as that.

WHAT ARE WE DONE WITH KERMIT?


Done like - completed it mate? or done like - thunderdome done?

TomSweeney wrote: »

Lads I'm in Spain with 282 cases and 3 deaths, 7 critical ... Ireland has 13, 0 deaths , 0 critical - relax !!!

Yeah, I cant see it getting any worse


Not

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

This. We develop an outbreak like Italy here and the country is done.

Simple as that.

That’s a bit excessive. Even if we had the reasonable worst case scenario of 50k dead we wouldn’t be done and we are likely to have significantly less than that. I still think it is most likely to be between 1000 to 2000 dead in Ireland over the next 12 months with an upper moderate case bound of 5000 as 50k is what happens if steps governments and health authorities take really don’t work.

The more we handwashing, the more people are proactive in self isolating etc etc the more that upper bound is unlikely to be realised.

5,000 dead will be sad and personal tragedies to a lot of families but it will not render the state dysfunctional in either the short or long term. Even 50,000 won’t do that. So this is serious but not an existential threat to society.

timmyntc wrote: »

Asymptomatic people tend to develop symptoms after the fact - they are presymptomatic not asymptomatic for the lifetime of the illness.
Again, covered in the WHO report.

The WHO report only really guesses at that though. The numbers of asymptomatic carriers found was very low - because asymptomatic people generally aren't being tested. Those found did tend to develop symptoms, but there was no elaboration on whether they developed differently from the rest of the infected population. Again probably because the numbers were so low.

The mortality rate on the ship is a good point. A complete guess here, but I would say that the viral load has some say in your outcome (i.e. how much of the virus you are first infected with).

Wibbs correctly points out that while the population on the ship was probably skewed towards the elderly and arthritic, there would also be a level of self-selection; those onboard were physically &medically capable of going for a multi-day (multi-week?) cruise without immediate access to medical supplies. This would put a lower bound on just how infirm a passenger can be.
That could go part of the way to explaining the low death rate,

As all diamond princess people were kept in their rooms, likely there wasn't much exposure to the virus, but obviously still some exposure hence them testing positive/developing symptoms.

Allegedly. There was nobody onboard actually enforcing or monitoring the quarantine, no specialists involved guiding the response.
There was considerable criticism about the lack of any segregation between clean and unclean parts of the ship.
I'd say plenty of passengers voluntarily stayed in their rooms, but nobody was forcing it.

GM228 wrote: »

First case reported in the Vatican, I guess there is no divine intervention afterall.

Or maybe there is...

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

WHAT ARE WE DONE WITH KERMIT?


Done like - completed it mate? or done like - thunderdome done?

The latter sadly.

We simply don't have the health infrastructure to deal with anything like an Italy or South Korea sadly. We just don't.