Coronavirus Part IV - 19 cases in ROI, 7 in NI (as of 7 March) *Read warnings in OP*

wadacrack wrote: »

An Irish doctor diagnosed with the coronavirus unwittingly worked a shift at University Hospital Limerick after not displaying symptoms of the disease.

It is understood that the man worked at the hospital last Wednesday after returning home from a family holiday in northern Italy, but neither he nor his employers knew he had been infected.

He is a member of a family of four patients from Co Clare - which includes two males and two females - who all tested positive for Covid-19 on Wednesday night.

It is the believed that the doctor checked with public health authorities after arriving home and was given the green light to work in the emergency department at UHL last Wednesday, February 26.

I work in an Office, in a Financial Services company (who BTW do not give a toss about their staff) and even they had the brain cells at that date to direct any staff members who returned from northern Italy or China to self-isolate for 14 days

Beyond scary that this is our "health service"

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How do you see this playing out in the next 12/18 months? Will it permanently circulate within the population and also continually mutate so any vaccine that may be developed will be a 'best guess' type like you get for seasonal flu currently?

It actually isn’t possible to determine that at this stage. There’s been some really interesting epidemiological work done in Washington where they analysed the RNA of the virus in several people and by comparing the RNA and knowing the amount of genomic drift which occurs as the virus infects a new patient they were able to determine just how many strata of infection there had been and to get a sense of how many there might be in the community.

At present there are roughly 70 confirmed cases. But according to the analysis of RNA and genetic drift due to RNA mutating so readily as it doesn’t have the self-correction mechanisms built into DNA they figured there were about 600 cases and about 6 to 7 “strata/generations” of infection in Washington State.

Anyways bottom line the longer it stays spreading the more it’ll mutate and the more likely it’ll mutate enough to create a different strain.

The more strains there are the more likely it’ll stay with us seasonally. There already appear to be two strains, L and S. one is significantly milder in terms of morbidity and mortality than the other so being in a country in which only the mild strain circulates could hugely impact mortality rates for the better.

My sense is that just like Spanish flu and a few others this will run well into 2021 but then won’t be seasonal ... but that depends on so many factors that I can have a high confidence of correctness with that, just my best guess.

gmisk wrote: »

Is this the David McWilliams podcast? It's coming up as 43 minutes long for me

Yeah but first 20 is when the prof is on

Ludo wrote: »

So who was that I just saw on the news talking the Dail today? So much for self-isolation.

In fairness where she was today no virus would go god knows what they would pick up

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yeah but first 20 is when the prof is on

Cracking thanks will give it a whirl tomorrow

What worries me most besides infecting my elderly parents is apparently it causes scarring on the lungs even if cured? That freaked me out as could be life long health implications.

xabi wrote: »

Incubation period, after 14 days you know you either have it or don’t.

tuxy wrote: »

The idea is that if you do have the virus you will most likely show symptoms within 2 weeks. If you do not show any signs after 2 weeks the chances of you having the virus is extremely low.

In the 2 week period the viral levels can be too low to show on tests.

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Can take 14 days for symptoms to show up. Then you'll need more time off because you're still sick. Heard it takes about a month to clear up.

Understood. Just means feck all really! I get the thinking if ya might have been exposed, but once back to normal ya could be exposed again! Round and round we go.

My place of work has a 15 minute evacuation plan in place and will shut for 2 weeks at the mere sniff of someone in there having a potential chance of being a carrier

Do we know the age profile of the Newley infected cases?

Funsterdelux wrote: »

:pac:

I am waiting for the Troy McClure information commerical about corona...I doubt it will be as good as the classic ...lead paint delicious but deadly

TheQuietBeatle wrote: »

What worries me most besides infecting my elderly parents is apparently it causes scarring on the lungs even if cured? That freaked me out as could be life long health implications.

Not necessarily at all.

drunkmonkey wrote: »

A well respected Irish doctor put it at 20,000 a couple of weeks ago here. I don't think people realise the effect of any spike in hospital admissions. It's not just people with coronavirus will die, other patients just won't be able to get help.
20 more people in ICU and the whole thing crashes. We don't have the resources.

Yes. Let’s say you need surgery but all the ventilators are being used with COVID19 pts. Well your surgery will be delayed and you may not live long enough for a ventilator to be free to allow your surgery.

Like, seriously, what do you think is going to happen to people with Cystic Fibrosis, Pulmonary Fibrosis, COAD, Heart Failure, AIDS, on immunosuppressants because of transplants, and those receiving chemotherapy when this spreads widely in the community? Those are all high risk conditions and they are quite common relatively speaking.

There are at least 40 more cases to be announced over the next two days. Our hospitals are proving not very suited to containing this virus for whatever reason. Many of these unannounced cases represent clusters of 6-10 people in various hospitals around the country.