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Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

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Comments

  • #7262
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Astounded that 3/4 of Brits would be up for quaratine, thought itd be more like 10%
    Well think of the brexit vote 😉


  • #7263
    Heighway61
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,978 ✭✭✭Heighway61


    Tordelback wrote: »
    Over the past decade or two my old man has managed to get himself diabetes, resultant heart and circulation problems, and is currently being (successfully) treated for cancer. From everything I've read it seems he's almost certain to die from Covid-19 before it's over, probably in the next couple of months.

    It's quite hard to absorb: he's been fighting so long and done so well, and now he's essentially hand-waved into the grave with every pronouncement of 'only 2-3% mortality'.

    I appreciate the calming positive spin of the '80% experience mild symptoms' mantra, but apply the 1-in-5 metric to your own wider family, and it quickly becomes very dispiriting realising who is likely to get seriously ill, and what conditions are going to be like for them as the HSE inevitably implodes and a few days on a trolley starts to sound like reports from a golden age.
    Same for me.

    Middle-aged.
    Prostate cancer.
    Ulcerative colitis, with an infusion of heavy duty immunosuppressant every six weeks and daily immuno medication.
    Heart block.
    Neurological condition.

    Lights out for me if I catch the virus. 2-3% might as well be 100% as far aa I'm concerned.


  • #7264
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,038 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    Those of you who organise events with largish groups of people, are you cancelling them or taking any extra measures?


  • #7265
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    FFS. It's not the flu, but let's compare it to flu.

    Swine flu in 2009 was also a pandemic. I'd say asking people to look to an event over 100 years ago to see what happens during a pandemic while totally ignoring one that occurred just over ten years ago is misguided if not outright scaremongering.

    Glad you mentioned that again not a valid comparison. According to the latest ESTIMATE from the WHO (as of yesterday). The mortality rate of the COVID-19 "novel" virus is 3.4%. The seasonal flu is ~0.1%.

    What's the difference between those two numbers? Vast majority of people I know can't answer that cause they are both relatively small. Well 3.4% is an order of magnitude larger. Specifically

    34 TIMES larger

    That's not scare mongering. Thats bleeding maths!

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html


  • #7266
    stevek93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,097 ✭✭✭stevek93


    mlem123 wrote: »
    Why the attitude?

    I know someone working on the hotline for this and she says how frustrating it is wasting time arguing with people who demand testing when they haven't had contact or been abroad etc. It wastes time for them to get to people who are actually sick

    Wait until you have to self isolate and the HSE refuse to test you see how fun it is.


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  • #7267
    BLIZZARD7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,002 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    gabeeg wrote: »
    Lads, if we're banning flights from Italy, what are we going to do about the likes of Germany, France, Spain and the USA?

    Never mind iran.

    If closing our borders is the way to go then it has to be to pretty much everywhere, and it will be hugely painful

    Yeah this may have been effective weeks ago but that horse has bolted. China had locked down most of the country when it was as bad as Italy is now though... that's the concerning thing.


  • #7268
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    stevek93 wrote: »
    I am not actually going to work relax the threat of me visiting my work place may prompt the HSE to test me which will most likely be negative so I can get back to work. Anyone with flu like symptoms should be tested IMO.

    No they shouldn't. They dont meet the guidelines set out by the ecdc and until that changes they wont be tested


  • #7269
    Cuckoo7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 235 ✭✭Cuckoo7


    Italian government in a meeting at the moment, studying the closure of all schools starting tomorrow.


  • #7270
    mlem123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 220 ✭✭mlem123


    stevek93 wrote: »
    Wait until you have to self isolate and the HSE refuse to test you see how fun it is.

    Well it was your employer who required it, the HSE never instructed it, so you should take it up with them. The HSE obviously don't think you have met the case definition.

    We're at the tail end of flu season, and you want everyone with flu-like symptoms to be tested? That sounds like a great way to overload the NVRL and cause people to panic


  • #7271
    stevek93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,097 ✭✭✭stevek93


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    No they shouldn't. They dont meet the guidelines set out by the ecdc and until that changes they wont be tested

    Well ok then the ecdc would be the ones who I raise my concerns with which will probably fall on deaf ears to be fair.


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  • #7272
    megabomberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 131 ✭✭megabomberman


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Astounded that 3/4 of Brits would be up for quaratine, thought itd be more like 10%

    In fairness to the Brits they nearly seem to salivating at the whole thing, they've been itching to revive their Dunkirk spirit with the Brexit foot shooting and now they have their moment. I think they will fair better than many western nations e.g. The United States which will resemble the purge.


  • #7273
    Cuckoo7
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 235 ✭✭Cuckoo7


    megabomberman wrote: »
    In fairness to the Brits they nearly seem to salivating at the whole thing, they've been itching to revive their Dunkirk spirit with the Brexit foot shooting and now they have their moment. I think they will fair better than many western nations e.g. The United States which will resemble the purge.

    Plus they don’t need to stockpile, many had already in preparation for a hard brexit.


  • #7274
    megabomberman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 131 ✭✭megabomberman


    Cuckoo7 wrote: »
    Italian government in a meeting at the moment, studying the closure of all schools starting tomorrow.

    The Italians four weeks down the road from where we are, will probably end up only doing the measures that we should be doing now. Can't see how they can go far enough to stem this thing.


  • #7275
    SeaBreezes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,554 ✭✭✭SeaBreezes


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I think you are over-exaggerating the likelihood of your dad dying. Like "almost certain to die"..... Based on what?

    I get it's an emotive topic for you but it seems to be clouding your rationality.

    Did you not have a bet on saying if CFR was over 1% you'd quit work or something?

    Can't Remember exactly. Was it something like that?


  • #7276
    KWAG2019
    Closed Accounts Posts: 834 ✭✭✭KWAG2019


    Heighway61 wrote: »
    Same for me.

    Middle-aged.
    Prostate cancer.
    Ulcerative colitis, with an infusion of heavy duty immunosuppressant every six weeks and daily immuno medication.
    Heart block.
    Neurological condition.

    Lights out for me if I catch the virus. 2-3% might as well be 100% as far aa I'm concerned.

    This is the reality. How we as a society deal with and communicate about this will mark families and society for generations.


  • #7277
    seamus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 68,190 ✭✭✭✭seamus


    pc7 wrote: »
    Did you see the lengths China went to to stall and slow this thing down, it was mammoth, nothing of the sort had been seen before. Quarantine, 40,000 medical staff shipped in. We need to slow it down, best start on this is to cancel large gatherings like Paddys day for starters. We have seen how it grows in countries once the community transmissions start, hell could be doing it here already. My worry since thread 1 on this thing was that it would overwhelm our already struggling health system.
    I don't disagree that China put in a mammoth effort, but we don't actually know if that did anything. Really.

    China was ground zero, so infections started spreading there faster than other places. The growth in daily cases was predictable along a well know algorithm; the only thing that can't be predicted is the peak.

    At the moment, we have a sample size of one in terms of predicting a peak. We won't know until other countries are further along whether China's measures actually slowed the growth of the virus, or if it hit its natural peak.

    I mean, it probably did, but it's still only a sample size of one.

    When Italy hits around 5-7,000 cases, we should then look at whether new cases are growing or dropping in Italy.

    If they're growing, then we need to take really heavy measures to push back and contain. If they begin to drop, then we know there's a natural peak around provided that normal containment measures are kept in place.

    At that rate, we can expect ~ 500-1000 cases.


  • #7278
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Tordelback wrote: »
    I would say that it is purely down to whether he - and the thousands like him - get infected or not.

    Reading the 72K-person epidemiological study, and the WHO stats, the vast, vast majority of deaths so far are in the elderly and pre-existing conditions bracket. If he gets it, I really can't see him being one of the lucky ones - nor can I see the HSE being able to provide the necessary care in the event of widespread infections. I spent much of Christmas and New Year in hospitals advocating for two elderly relatives on trolleys, and that was just predictable seasonal load.

    It all comes down to how infection rates pan out. If folk like my Dad get caught up in this, all the evidence is that they will die, and I really don't see that as an irrational reading.

    Even in the over 70s, the mortality rate is only roughly 15% in chinese CDC stats. Whilst it is advisable for your dad to take precautions (especially since he is probably immunocompromised).

    Rate of death amongst cancer victims who caught COVID-19 is around 5.6%.
    The way you are speaking, you would expect a 99% chance of your dad dying. Also, whatever people are saying, the health care system in Ireland is far superior than to China.

    On a more personal note, sorry to hear about your dad but it's good news that the cancer treatment is successful.


  • #7279
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    The WHO are visiting Dublin in the next couple of weeks, things are getting serious. Link.


  • #7280
    antodeco
    Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,683 ✭✭✭✭antodeco


    The problem is that the guidelines are only if you have come into contact with someone with it, or been in one of those locations. 4.9 million people in Ireland. 400 people tested. That means 0.008% of people have been tested. How do you know if you have been in contacted with someone who has it, if they dont even know if they have it.

    Think of all the people who may have come into contacted with a Covid19 person who arent aware of it. And then how many people they may have been in contact with. Now you have "secondary" masses of people who werent in contact with a Covid19 person, but by proxy, they could have Covid19.


  • #7281
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    The WHO are visiting Dublin in the next couple of weeks, things are getting serious. Link.

    Had us there for a sec


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  • #7282
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    stevek93 wrote: »
    Where have you seen this? Very important to me as I am currently out of work with flu like symptoms but the HSE won't test me because I haven't been to any of the effected areas or haven't been in contact with anyone with the virus. They are telling me I might or might not have it. :confused: Also my employer is keeping my situation hidden from my colleagues.

    What medical advice are they giving you? Did they tell you to take anything, did they say you could go out. Did they tell you to ring back? Did they log your details?


  • #7283
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,419 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    China didn't have the benefit of knowing it was coming and when they did, they fudged it.

    For that reason alone you would have to cut them some slack on their stats.

    That said setting up portable speakers on the streets to tell people not leave there homes is something only probably China could do.


  • #7284
    worded
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,828 ✭✭✭worded


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qd9JYtztsQ0


  • #7285
    the butcher
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 591 ✭✭✭the butcher


    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1235185178022219777?s=19


  • #7286
    Exclamation Marc
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,367 ✭✭✭✭Exclamation Marc


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Sigh. I am sooo tired of the number of people using the words panic, hysteria and dismissing this virus. Educate yourself.

    Those are the numbers from WHO i was making a point to illustrate WHY these events should be cancelled for a while. Yes if 13,000 get the virus then 455 will die, maybe more that is fact.

    They might not be at the arena. They may be in hospital or fighting cancer, or diabetic or have heart issues. YOU may not know them directly. But you can infect others who infect them.


    Large mass gatherings only spread the disease.

    It's not a lot to ask that people curtail the entertainment for a little while.
    Isn't your granny worth that at least?

    I'm tired of reading absolute nonsense myself. Your message implies that all people at a gig will get sick which is patently untrue. So your figures, whilst correct in theory are using a variable that doesn't exist, that everyone at a gig will categorically get sick.

    This is simply false and you may need to educate yourself before you start making wild assumptions. Your post, in response to the original query was that for every 1000 at the gig (not every 1000 infected), 35 would die. Re-read your post.


  • #7287
    stevek93
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,097 ✭✭✭stevek93


    Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »
    What medical advice are they giving you? Did they tell you to take anything, did they say you could go out. Did they tell you to ring back? Did they log your details?

    Yes take paracetamol thats it the GP is ringing me everyday to see how everything is. I am not allow leave the house nobody is allowed to visit but my partner is allowed to go to work and we share a bed. :confused:


  • #7288
    tom1ie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,996 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    All of what you say is true, but it doesn't take away from the ridiculousness of saying "it's not a flu, let's compare it to a flu".

    The WHO have also said it doesnt spread as easily as a flu. As you highlighted yourself, the 3.4% is an estimate. When swine flu was starting out, there were projections that the death rate would be much higher, yet that didn't end up happening.

    The estimates for c19 started at 1-2% now it’s at 3.4%, the opposite of the swine flu that your comparing this to.


  • #7289
    BarryD2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,732 ✭✭✭BarryD2


    megabomberman wrote: »
    The Italians four weeks down the road from where we are, will probably end up only doing the measures that we should be doing now. Can't see how they can go far enough to stem this thing.

    Journalist based in Milan reporting this morning to effect that very mixed messages coming from authorities. Some are battening down, working from home etc. whilst many other Italians are blithely ignoring the whole issue.

    Sounds like we are following in the same path. If the sh*t hits the fan here in due course, I hope these Dept of Health officials stand up and take responsibility, real responsibility.


  • #7290
    kowloon
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,720 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Astounded that 3/4 of Brits would be up for quaratine, thought itd be more like 10%

    They're willing to put up with anything to get away from the EU.


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  • #7291
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    SeaBreezes wrote: »
    Did you not have a bet on saying if CFR was over 1% you'd quit work or something?

    Can't Remember exactly. Was it something like that?

    If final mortality was over 2%, I said I'd quit my job. I was been a bit hyperbolic as I was frustrated. I'm hardly going to throw away a 90000 euro a year job that I love doing on an internet bet to randomers on the internet.;)

    Also it will be less than 2% when all said and done.


This discussion has been closed.
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