Coronavirus Part III - 9 cases across the Island - 503 errors abound!! *read OP*

Glenbhoy wrote: »

It does seem fairly rampant over there, but we'd need to know more about how long infected people were there for, what types of exposure they could have had, close personal contacts, just unlucky etc and what would be most informative would be knowing how many passengers arrive on from lombardia/veneto every day, probably 1500 odd? So 3 cases confirmed from perhaps 10-15k arrivals over the past fortnight?

Have we tested all of those 10-15k arrivals? Absolutely not. We have tested 397 people as of last night. Italy have far underestimated their cases so far - that's very apparent by the huge number of cases they are exporting. Agree with the above post on Italy from Rob A. Bank, Europe needs drastic action now to prevent Wuhan looking like a small cluster in comparison.

Meanwhile we think it's a good idea to have a massive St.Patrick's day parade in Dublin...

seamus wrote: »

As someone quite astutely pointed out on this thread last week, Italy made a balls of their initial response.

Realistically we should be looking at suspending all major gatherings in Dublin for the next 3-4 weeks. Now that we have two confirmed cases, there are likely others.

Paddy's Parade, gigs over 1,000 people, sports events, etc. Encourage employers to have employees work from home as much as possible to reduce public transport use. Outside of Dublin I wouldn't be too concerned unless there's reason to believe the new case could have spread it beyond.

And cancel all flights from Northern Italy. If nothing else it might discourage anyone planning on flying there if they can't get back again.

No need for major panic, but we have the opportunity here to learn from the mistakes of others.

When are these important measures going to be introduced to help stop the virus spreading?

Ninthlife wrote: »

When is the next update from DoH and HSE?

3:42 am

Snow Garden wrote: »

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-european-countries-that-wash-their-hands-least-after-going-to-the-toilet-a6757711.html

The European countries that wash their hands least after going to the toilet

1. Dutch (50%)
2. Italians (57%)

First it was someone going on about how the Chinese are filthy because some lad watched a few videos and now the Italians are filthy :rolleyes:

cloudatlas wrote: »

First it was someone going on about how the Chinese are filthy because some lad watched a few videos and now the Italians are filthy :rolleyes:

Chief Wiggum: We're shutting you down, you filthy Italians!
(Lou whispers into his ear) Oh, right, right. You filthy Italian-Americans!

Looks like a second school is closed, in Meath this time. Maybe the second case was an employee there or had some connections with it.

givyjoe wrote: »

That's quite a distortion of what was actually posted.

Well how else do you interpret that.

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

The results of the actions we take now will only become obvious in a week or two.

We need to be proactive not reactive. Fire prevention is far better and cheaper than firefighting.

Countries infected by travelers from Italy so far ! (bigger version here )



The Italian outbreak is totally out of control and we will go exactly the same way if something is not done fast. The virus is the same one which is causing mayhem all over the world.

It is wishful thinking to expect the virus to behave in any other way here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_Italy

Nearly every country was as quick to ban flights to China before almost any cases had been exported..whats up now? Why everywhere is afraid to ban flights to Italy? It has exported many more cases than China did

YFlyer wrote: »

It is the Dutch. Smell of skunk off them.

'No, it's the feckin' Greeks. Sure they invented Gayness.'

Over the past decade or two my old man has managed to get himself diabetes, resultant heart and circulation problems, and is currently being (successfully) treated for cancer. From everything I've read it seems he's almost certain to die from Covid-19 before it's over, probably in the next couple of months.

It's quite hard to absorb: he's been fighting so long and done so well, and now he's essentially hand-waved into the grave with every pronouncement of 'only 2-3% mortality'.

I appreciate the calming positive spin of the '80% experience mild symptoms' mantra, but apply the 1-in-5 metric to your own wider family, and it quickly becomes very dispiriting realising who is likely to get seriously ill, and what conditions are going to be like for them as the HSE inevitably implodes and a few days on a trolley starts to sound like reports from a golden age.

Tordelback wrote: »

Over the past decade or two my old man has managed to get himself diabetes, resultant heart and circulation problems, and is currently being (successfully) treated for cancer. From everything I've read it seems he's almost certain to die from Covid-19 before it's over, probably in the next couple of months.

It's quite hard to absorb: he's been fighting so long and done so well, and now he's essentially hand-waved into the grave with every pronouncement of 'only 2-3% mortality'.

I appreciate the calming positive spin of the '80% experience mild symptoms' mantra, but apply the 1-in-5 metric to your own wider family, and it quickly becomes very dispiriting realising who is likely to get seriously ill, and what conditions are going to be like for them as the HSE inevitably implodes and a few days on a trolley starts to sound like reports from a golden age.

This is not true. Obviously he's higher risk but 1) there's no guarantee he'll contract the virus and 2) if he does, most of the at risk groups survive.

iguana wrote: »

What kinds of changes has anyone here made in their regular lives? Are people still doing things like sports training? Sending their kids to their extracurricular activities? Etc. I've made a decision to stop taking my 7 year old to visit my 89 year old grandmother. He goes to a tiny rural school where his chances of infection would be lower than most because of the tiny numbers but he also does dance and gymnastics. Both activities are taking precautions with increased hand washing but realistically kids of that age won't be able to take proper precautions. A dance class I do, has just finished up for a couple of months, not because of the virus but I'm relieved as it involved a lot of close contact and hand holding.

I haven't really altered my behavior apart from ensuring there is enough soap in the house.

I'm in DCU on Monday and Tuesday evenings. On Monday less than half the class showed up, it was noticeable because those that weren't present were the asian students and on our course they make up ~60% of the class. The lecture for Tuesday was canceled as a precaution. I found the campus to be noticeably quieter on Monday afternoon.

My eldest son's scout group meeting was canceled because one of the members is a classmate of the student with the first confirmed case. Thankfully my son was too ill to attend the meeting last week or go on their trip last weekend.

I took our youngest two to their swim lessons yesterday evening and most of the kids weren't there. The group sizes are small (~10) but my son (8) was one of only two kids to show up for his lesson. There were four kids in my daughter's group and there were two swim teachers standing around because none of the kids had shown up for the groups that they teach.

The principal of the primary school that our younger kids attend is running a tight ship and has gotten the message across about hygiene and the need to wash their hands properly and regularly. There's a rhyme that the kids have to recite while washing to ensure that it takes about 30 seconds. They each have had to bring their own hand towels (a face cloth) to dry their hands afterwards. And what's truly remarkable is we now have an 8 year old boy who instinctively coughs into his elbow and disposes of his own tissues in the bin - it's a massive transformation from the little boll!x that would cough and splutter all over people or chuck snotty tissues for a laugh. The reason for his behavior change is that both his grandmother and her sister suffer from COPD and from the chat that the teacher had with his class he knows that it's not likely to be a joke for them.

caveat emptor wrote: »

Really think we need to start taking it seriously. Anybody with a cursory understanding of statistics, probability and flight patterns could see cases being imported from Italy. On any given day there is on average ~10 direct flights from the affected regions in Italy. The cases we are seeking now are from last week. The number of cases in Italy has grown exponentially in the mean time. So the probability of more cases being imported has also increased and we will see more in coming days.

We are not being given a full picture for a very good reason. Panic is a bigger danger to society. That means some families will have to take the hit for the greater good. I don't want to be one of those families.

It's not the flu. Although look at the wikipedia page on 1918 Spanish flu for understanding of what happens during pandemic. If you are really arsed look at the sources referenced to dispel any thoughts that it's bull****.

In lombardy in Italy where first clusters recorded in Italy ~50% of those who tested positive ARE hospitalised. ~7% are in intensive care. They are testing like crazy. WHO said most western countries do not have the resources / training /will to mount a response like china did. We simply don't have enough mechanincal respirators to cope. Very soon Italy won't cope.

There is a lag on transmission that is lulling people in to false sense of security. There is also concerted effort to put business before health of nation.

Nitpick on the last point. If the economy tanks (although by now it's much more when it tanks rather than if), people will die prematurely.