Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

fritzelly · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

Welcome to boards.ie

Loafing Oaf · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

saabsaab wrote: »

Surprised.

That we didn't have a confirmed case here weeks ago. Flights should have been stopped from affected areas. Maybe they will now?

I think not:
Harris said, “we can’t ban travel”.

“Let’s pretend we decided in Ireland [that] we weren’t going to accept flights from Italy. That wouldn’t work because Italian people could be flying to France and France on to Ireland,” said Harris.

“We live in the European Union. There is free movement.

https://www.thejournal.ie/we-cant-ban-travel-health-minister-rules-out-screening-at-irish-airports-as-covid-19-spreads-5022235-Feb2020/

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

sdanseo wrote: »

First of all your mathematical ability is questionable.

In your quasi-apocalyptic assumption, the correct figures would be as below.
Current death rate = 2942 / 86023 x 100/1 = 3.4%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 2942 / (86023x2) x 100/1 = 1.71%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
1.71% of that number would be 80,342

Now, back to reality. Outside Hubei and Iran, the rates are more like:
Current Death Rate = 171 / 19070 x 100/1 = 0.89%
Assume 50% of cases undetected so current death rate = 171/38410 x 100/1 = 0.4%
100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.4% of that number would be 21,065

Now, if we were to assume that in fact the number of reported confirmed cases only reflects those in Hospital (19%) it would mean the total number of cases in the most optimistic scenario is closer to the below.
Total Hospitalised Cases (19%) outside Hubei & Iran: 19070
Presumed Total Non Reported Cases (81%) outside Hubei & Iran = (19070/19) x 81 = 81298
Presumed TOTAL of all cases outside Huebi & Iran is therefore 19070 + 81298 = 100,368
Death rate would therefore be 171 / 100,368 x 100/1 = 0.17%

100% of the population of the Island of Ireland is 6.712 million.
70% would be 4.6984 million
0.17% of that number would be 7,987

By contrast, in 2014, the most recent figures I can find show that for just the Republic of Ireland:
3388 people died of respiratory diseases
8899 people died of heart disease or circulatory illness
8880 people died of cancer

Just some context.

Sources
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/deaths/

Very good post. You have excluded the epicentre which makes sense, why have you disregarded the Iran death rate?

theballz · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

They are not telling us everything.

Quantum Erasure · 01-03-2020 12:17AM

cameramonkey wrote: »

Noli timere

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/?fbclid=IwAR27lNjW5jZQpg5V073sSP0PqlBTKz6KZSITHMZBt5lQ_lkB07Zo8B9nzHY

hmmm...

Seamus Heaney, the Irish poet and playwright, passed away in Dublin on 30 August, 2013, after a short illness.

His last words, sent by text message to his wife, Marie, minutes before he died, were Noli timere (Latin for Do not be afraid).

skimpydoo · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Patient Zero was there....

But where to start looking....

All Dublin Gardai stations and hospitals

Kermit.de.frog · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

sdanseo wrote: »

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.

Sorry but i'm sick of the ignorance and people throwing around irrelevant numbers.

I'm asking you how do you think people in Dublin would feel if they were told there were over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

What do you think would happen?

Business as usual here?

Is that what you think!?

tillyfilly · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

Man in east of the country diagnosed with Covid-19
https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0229/1119357-coronavirus-ireland/

gabeeg · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

sdanseo wrote: »

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.
406 people in the week you mentioned.

Now do the hospitalisation rate, hotshot

CinemaGuy45 · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

sdanseo wrote: »

In 2 or 3 weeks time we could well be told that a similar proportion of our population (around 8% of Italy's) is affected in the same way.
That'd be maybe 80 cases and 2 deaths.

Again context. 4 people died in car crashes in the last 72 hours.
By the same rates as my quoted post, in those same 72 hours 174 people also died of other diseases.

Known risks we are all aware of that we must accept.

We have airbags in our cars we wear seatbelts.

Many older people put a little prayer card in their car.

What is point are you trying to make again?

Man Vs ManUre · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Great attitude.

Why not stay off work Monday and do everybody there a favour.

The overlords won’t tell us to not come into office till this has become a major medical situation.
Until then it’s use up your 23 days annual leave or else come into office where people are so run and selfish they just sneeze, snort, snuffle and cough away to themselves all day with no consideration to others nearby.
And even in most corporations you cannot take annual leave on short notice.

all about the mane · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

theballz wrote: »

They are not telling us everything.

who?

Del.Monte · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Source?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51693259

Away With The Fairies · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

Kaisr Sose wrote: »

If you catch it... I take it you have not caught it yet so why think like you have it?

I can't avoid people so there's a possibility of catching it. You can do all the hand washing but it takes a second to forget and touch a contaminated surface and bring it to your face.

gmisk · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

theballz wrote: »

They are not telling us everything.

Who are they?
And what exactly do you think they are hiding?

Mwengwe · 01-03-2020 12:18AM

thebaz wrote: »

best post here - context is right - but, panic sells newspapers

Right, but if anything I find the context kind of grim. A lot of people die from cancer. Now, worst case scenario, we have another cancer (in numbers that is)

Cilldara_2000 · 01-03-2020 12:19AM

billybonkers wrote: »

First case in the republic. Out east!!

It's here

Not a drill

Thanks for letting us know. Nobody else had posted about this yet.

all about the mane · 01-03-2020 12:19AM

Man Vs ManUre wrote: »

The overlords won’t tell us to not come into office till this has become a major medical situation.
Until then it’s use up your 23 days annual leave or else come into office where people are so run and selfish they just sneeze, snort, snuffle and cough away to themselves all day with no consideration to others nearby.
And even in most corporations you cannot take annual leave on short notice.

overlords? really?? your employer is lucky to have you

LawBoy2018 · 01-03-2020 12:19AM

Chances of the FE1(solicitor) exams being postponed? Thousands of law graduates flocking from all over the country to the Red Cow hotel from next Friday - 16th of March?

tillyfilly · 01-03-2020 12:20AM

The man in the east of the country with covid 19 is in my prayers

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:20AM

cameramonkey wrote: »

My understanding is that it takes a few days at least to be contagious, it follows a similar pattern to other viral infections. i dont see for instance how say two hours after you got infected how your body would produce enough viral load to infect another person.

Yeah that’s fair enough. I should have probably said you have the remote possibility of being contagious after hour 1.
Do we have info on when someone has become contagious, when is the tipping point?

Poor_old_gill · 01-03-2020 12:21AM

all about the mane wrote: »

who?

George Soros, FIFA and the Swiss bobsleigh team from Cool Runnings - a collection of monumentally shady characters

theballz · 01-03-2020 12:21AM

gmisk wrote: »

Who are they?
And what exactly do you think they are hiding?

I cannot say all but it is worse on our island than you think.

all about the mane · 01-03-2020 12:21AM

LawBoy2018 wrote: »

Chances of the FE1(solicitor) exams being postponed? Thousands of law graduates flocking from all over the country to the Red Cow hotel from next Friday - 16th of March?

would be a shame if a load of lawyers got culled...

fritzelly · 01-03-2020 12:22AM

tom1ie wrote: »

Yeah that’s fair enough. I should have probably said you have the remote possibility of being contagious after hour 1.
Do we have info on when someone has become contagious, when is the tipping point?

Will vary from person to person ergo some people have symptoms after a few days, others take 2 weeks for it to overwhelm their system

solidasarock · 01-03-2020 12:22AM

So should we use dettol wipes when we have a **** now?

sdanseo · 01-03-2020 12:22AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Sorry but i'm sick of the ignorance and people throwing around irrelevant numbers.

I'm asking you how do think people in Dublin would feel if they were told there were over 1,000 cases and 29 people dead in a week?

What do you think would happen?

Business as usual here?

Is that what you think!?

Edited my post above just fyi
No, of course there'd be mass panic. But that doesn't affect the numbers.

tom1ie · 01-03-2020 12:23AM

theballz wrote: »

I cannot say all but it is worse on our island than you think.

Ah stop. Unless you have sources or at least a good story- feck off.

CinemaGuy45 · 01-03-2020 12:23AM

solidasarock wrote: »

So should we use dettol wipes when we have a **** now?

Only when YOU do it in public.

silverharp · 01-03-2020 12:23AM

solidasarock wrote: »

So should we use dettol wipes when we have a **** now?

hot sauce to be sure, it doesn't like heat

Coronavirus Part II - Its arrived - We're Doomed!!! See OP for Mod warnings

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